Double top at day high, NY low then lower high, early-Asia drift.
London's double top at the 0.8185 day high gave way to a NY sell-off that swept the Asian low to a 0.8133 ny low, as lower UST yields and softer US tech stocks lifted CHF. The rebound stalled at a 0.8174 lower high, and early Asia is drifting below EMA20/50 between the 0.8148 asia low (near the 61.8% of the NY rebound) and the 0.8165 asia high, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 0.81475, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81651, 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8148 asia low exposes the 0.8133 ny low
Close above the 0.8165 asia high breaks the lower-highs line; 0.8174 lower high, then 0.8185 day high, next
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Range, near-term pullback from late-NY high · RSI 39 · price 0.8150
24h range 0.8133–0.8185; lower high at 0.8174, rollover drop retracing NY rebound.
NY selling from the 0.8185 session high swept the Asian lows to a 0.8133 day low as Treasury yields slipped. A rebound stalled at the 0.8174 NY high, and the rollover gap plus a fresh drop to the 0.8148 swing low have retraced about 61.8% of that rebound. Price sits below both EMAs as Asia opens, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.81475, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81651, 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8148 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.8133 day low
M15 close above the 0.8165 rollover hi brings the 0.8174 NY high back into play
Break of the 0.8185 session high invalidates the range read
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling below lower high · RSI 45 · price 0.81589
Higher low at 0.8137 after 0.8133 NY low; lower high 0.8174 under 0.8185 day high.
The NY-session drop from the 0.8185 day high bottomed at the 0.8133 NY low. A higher low at 0.8137 followed, then a rebound that met rejection at the 0.8174 lower high as USD stabilised ahead of NFP. A thin-liquidity rollover low at 0.8150 held, and price sits at 0.8159, just under EMA20/50, near the 38.2% retracement and capped by the 0.8165 Asia high.
Support: 0.81498, 0.81372, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81651, 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8150 rollover low (61.8% retracement) exposes the 0.8137 higher low and 0.8133 NY low
M15 close above the 0.8165 Asia high and 0.8174 lower high reopens the 0.8185 day high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
0.8133–0.8185 day range, lower highs off the 0.8185 double top.
London capped twice at the 0.8185 double top. A sharp NY sell-off as Treasury yields slipped then swept the Asian low to a 0.8133 day low. The rebound has stalled under the 0.8174 late-NY high, and price sits at the 61.8% retracement near 0.8165 after the rollover low at 0.8150 held in the early Asia session.
Support: 0.8160, 0.8150, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8174 late-ny high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.8185 double top back in play
Loss of the 0.8160 fib 50% and the 0.8150 rollover low reopens the 0.8133 day low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8174 below the 0.8185 double top; higher lows building off 0.8133.
Price failed twice at the 0.8185 double top. From the NY open it slid to a 0.8133 day low as falling Treasury yields outweighed the US claims beat, then the late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.8174 late-NY high. A thin rollover spike tagged the 0.8150 rollover low, and early Asia is holding mid-range near 0.8159, the 50% level of the 17:00–21:00 UTC NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8137, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8150 rollover low exposes the 0.8137 ny swing low and the rising lows trendline
Break of the 0.8133 day low resumes the NY session downtrend
M15 close above the 0.8174 late-NY high reopens the 0.8185 double top
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Two-way, rebound fading after rollover gap · RSI 47 · price 0.81551
Lower high at 0.8174 after NY drop from 0.8185; higher lows intact above 0.8133.
After a second rejection at the 0.8185 day high, the NY session dropped about 50 pips to a 0.8133 session low as falling yields capped the USD rebound. The recovery stalled at a 0.8174 late NY high, and the rollover gap printed a 0.8150 rollover low. Early Asia now sits near the 50% retrace of that bounce, with higher lows at 0.8137 below and gap fill at 0.8166 above.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8137, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81663, 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8150 rollover low exposes the 0.8137 higher lows and the 0.8133 session low
M15 close above the 0.8166 gap fill and the 0.8174 late NY high reopens the 0.8185 day high
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
24h range 0.8133–0.8185; NY higher lows broken into by a rollover gap.
The NY session reversed the London push to the 0.8185 London high and took out the Asian low to a 0.8133 session low. Demand then built a 0.8137 higher low and lifted price to the 0.8174 NY high, in line with the firm CHF tone easing as USD steadied. The rollover bar gapped about 15 pips lower to the 0.8150 rollover low, putting price at the 50–61.8% fib of the NY rally with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8166, 0.8174, 0.8185
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8150 rollover low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.8137 higher low and the 0.8133 session low
Reclaiming the 0.8166 gap fill reopens the 0.8174 NY high and then the 0.8185 London high
A break of the NY higher-lows trendline undercuts the rebound structure
US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Asia session liquidity is thin until then
22:03 UTC
Two-way, rebound stalling below day high · RSI 55 · price 0.81663
NY false break below Asian low reclaimed; post-close compression 0.8162–0.8174.
London broke the 0.8135–0.8171 Asian range higher and printed a double top at 0.8185. The pair then dropped to a 0.8133 day low in NY hours, a false break of the Asian low as the franc bid returned. The recovery to the 0.8174 late high stalled at the 78.6% fib, and price is now compressing just above the 0.8162 late lows into the Asia session.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81365, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81744, 0.81853
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8162 late lows puts the 0.8137 higher low and 0.8133 day low back in play
A close above the 0.8174 late high reopens the 0.8185 double top
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.8137 after false break of Asian low; tight 0.8162–0.8174 box into close.
NY hours sold off from the 0.8185 day high, briefly breaking the 0.8135 Asian low and setting a day low at 0.8133. The move below failed and price reclaimed the range. A higher swing low at 0.8137 led a late-NY rebound to 0.8174 as USD steadied on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. Price is now compressing between the 0.8162 late base and the 0.8174 rebound high, with RSI(14) neutral near 60.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81372, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 late base breaks the box and brings the rising lows line and 0.8137 swing low back into view
Close above the 0.8174 rebound high reopens the 0.8185 day high
Losing the 0.8133 day low would negate the false break read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Recovering within day range, higher lows · RSI 62 · price 0.81711
Higher-low chain since 16:45 UTC, capped under session high.
The 13:30 UTC US data drop bottomed at the 0.8133 NY low, near the Asian lows. Price has since recovered about 38 pips through the 61.8% retrace of the london high–ny low leg, with the 0.8162 swing low holding as a higher low. Late in NY it is stalling under the 0.8174 session high, inside an intact 0.8133–0.8185 day range; RSI(14) near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81744, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8174 session high exposes the 0.8185 london high, the range top
Failure to hold the 0.8162 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline
Loss of the 0.8133 ny low would break the day range to the downside
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Recovery leg, higher lows since 18:00 UTC · RSI 58 · price 0.81703
V-recovery from NY low, stalling under late high.
NY hours briefly broke the Asian low with a slide to the 0.8133 NY low, with lower yields capping USD, before a higher-low recovery after 18:00 UTC. Price is now stalling under the 0.8174 late high, near the 78.6% fib of the drop from the 0.8185 day high. RSI(14) is around 58.
Support: 0.8165, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8174 late high opens the 0.8185 day high
Loss of the fib 61.8 near 0.8165 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Break below the 0.8133 NY low confirms a lower-low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Intraday recovery inside day range · RSI 70 · price 0.81727
Higher lows off a double bottom at the day low, price testing the late NY high.
USDCHF has held a 0.8133–0.8185 day range. Asia sold to 0.8135, London lifted to the 0.8185 session high, and the 14:30 UTC NY drop retested the day low at 0.8133. A double bottom near 0.8137 then cleared its 0.8159 neckline and has recovered to the 0.8173 late NY high, about 76% of the NY selloff, as the dollar stabilises into NFP.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81587, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81734, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8173 late NY high opens the 0.8185 session high
Loss of the 0.8162 higher low and the rising trendline undercuts the recovery, with the 0.8159 neckline next
Break of the 0.8133 day low turns the range into a lower-low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Recovering from NY low, higher lows in place · RSI 56 · price 0.81673
HL chain off 0.8133, pressing 0.8173 swing high.
London lifted price out of the 0.8135–0.8166 Asian range to a 0.8185 london high. A NY sell-off followed as falling Treasury yields capped USD, and it swept the Asian low to a 0.8133 ny low. Higher lows since then and a clear of the 0.8159 prior high now have price late in NY under the 0.8173 swing high, near the 78.6% retrace of the drop.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81587, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81734, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8173 swing high opens the london high at 0.8185
Loss of the intraday low at 0.8162 and the 0.8159 prior high returns price to the post-drop range
Break of the higher lows trendline exposes the ny low at 0.8133
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) on Friday can reset this read
20:31 UTC
Two-way intraday, recovering from NY low · RSI 61 · price 0.81649
0.8133–0.8185 day range; higher lows since NY sweep of Asian low.
London lifted out of the 0.8135 Asian low to a double top at 0.8185. NY then sold back to 0.8133 and swept the Asian low as falling Treasury yields capped the USD. Rising lows since and a late-NY push to 0.8173 leave price mid-range near 0.8165 after NY close, holding above the 0.8162 pullback low.
Support: 0.81623, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81734, 0.81853
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8162 pullback low breaks the rising lows and exposes the fib 50% at 0.8153
M15 close above the 0.8173 late NY high reopens the 0.8185 double top
Loss of the 0.8135 Asian low negates the NY recovery and confirms a lower low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Rebounding inside a wide intraday range · RSI 57 · price 0.81652
NY false break below Asian low, higher low at 0.8137, rebound stalling at the 61.8% retrace.
London lifted USD/CHF from the Asian low to the day high at 0.8185. NY then reversed the entire move as falling Treasury yields capped USD, printing a false break of the Asian low to the day low at 0.8133. The late-NY rebound off a higher low at 0.8137 topped at the NY high of 0.8173 and is now holding near 0.8165, the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8173, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8173 ny high opens a retest of the 0.8185 day high
Loss of the 0.8162 pullback low turns the 61.8% retrace into a rejection
Break of the 0.8137 higher low and 0.8133 day low negates the rising lows
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY selloff, momentum pausing · RSI 56 · price 0.81656
Higher lows off 0.8133 day low, capped below 0.8173 rebound high.
NY session dropped from the 0.8185 day high to a 0.8133 day low, sweeping the Asian low near 0.8135. Higher lows at 0.8137 then built a double bottom, and price recovered through the 0.8158 neckline to a 0.8173 rebound high near the 78.6% retrace. Late NY bars rejected there, and price now sits on the 61.8% at 0.8165, with the USD rebound still capped by lower yields.
Support: 0.8158, 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8173, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8158 neckline (50% retrace) undoes the double bottom read
Clearance of the 0.8173 rebound high exposes the 0.8185 day high and London range top
Loss of the 0.8137 higher lows and the NY higher-lows trendline puts the 0.8133 day low back in play
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC earlier
19:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the NY low · RSI 66 · price 0.81708
Higher-low chain inside the 0.8133–0.8185 day range, late NY session.
The London double top at 0.8185 gave way to a sharp NY drop as falling yields capped the dollar. The NY low at 0.8133 briefly undercut the Asian low and reversed in a false break. Price has since retraced about 72% of that drop on a rising support line, after a breakout through 0.8166, and now sits just under the 0.8173 rebound high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.8166, 0.8159, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8173, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8173 rebound high exposes the 0.8185 double top
Loss of the 0.8166 breakout level and the rising support line reopens the 0.8159 prior pivot
Break below the 0.8133 ny low voids the false-break read
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Rebound off session low, recovering NY sell-off · RSI 61 · price 0.8166
Higher lows from 0.8133, NY high at 0.8159 cleared, testing 61.8% retrace.
London lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8135–0.8153 Asian range to a double top at 0.8185. The dollar faded the claims beat during NY hours and fell to a 0.8133 session low. Late NY has printed higher lows at 0.8137 and cleared the 0.8159 ny high, with price now pressing the 61.8% retrace of the NY sell-off just under the 0.8168 prior pivot.
Support: 0.8159, 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8168, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8168 prior pivot opens a retest of the 0.8185 double top
Slip back below the 0.8159 ny high turns the move into a false break inside the NY range
Loss of the 0.8137 higher low and 0.8133 session low breaks the higher-low line
NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.8133 after reversal from 0.8185; price at 50% retracement.
Late NY, after London close. The London rally failed at the 0.8185 session high around the claims release, and the reversal swept the Asian low to a 0.8133 session low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows near 0.8137 and pushed through the 0.8159 prior high. Price now sits at the 50% fib of that drop, just under the 0.8166 Asian high.
Support: 0.8159, 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8166, 0.8185
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8166 asian high (61.8% fib) opens a path back toward the 0.8185 session high
Losing the 0.8137 higher low breaks the rising trendline; below the 0.8133 session low confirms a lower-low
A slip back under the 0.8159 prior high would turn the break into a false break
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could override the intraday structure
19:02 UTC
Range, recovering off NY low · RSI 51 · price 0.8153
0.8133–0.8185 day range; higher lows forming after the NY flush.
The NY session reversed the London push to the 0.8185 day high. It flushed to a 0.8133 session low just under the Asian floor before rebounding, despite firm US claims data. Price has printed a higher low at 0.8137 and is pinned at the 38.2% retrace, flat against EMA20 and capped so far by the 0.8159 rebound high.
Support: 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8159, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8159 rebound high (50% fib) opens a run back toward the 0.8185 day high
Loss of the 0.8137 higher low and the 0.8133 session low breaks the range floor, exposing 0.8124
Fed Williams (09:30 UTC) and Friday NFP (13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could reset this range
18:46 UTC
Intraday down after NY reversal, stabilising · RSI 49 · price 0.81535
London's rally was rejected twice at the 0.8185 day high. NY then erased it in a sharp drop to a 0.8133 day low, back at the Asian range floor, even as US data was firm. Late NY shows a higher low at 0.8137 and price is pressing the 38.2% fib near 0.8153, just under EMA20, with the rebound high at 0.8159 (50% fib) capping.
Support: 0.81372, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81587, 0.8171, 0.81852
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8159 rebound high clears the 50% fib and puts the 0.8171 breakdown level in view
Failure to hold the 0.8137 higher low reopens the 0.8133 day low and Asian range floor
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY selloff, now basing · RSI 39 · price 0.81474
Compression range 0.8137–0.8159 under lower highs, late NY.
London lifted price from the 0.8135 Asian lows to a 0.8185 day high that double-topped. From the US data window, price shed about 50 pips despite the 189K claims beat and briefly swept the Asian lows to a 0.8133 session low. The rebound stalled at the 50% selloff fib near 0.8159, and late-NY trade is compressing between 0.8137 and a line of lower highs at 0.8152, RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8152, 0.8159, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8152 breaks the lower highs line and puts the 0.8159 bounce high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8137 ny swing low and the 0.8133 session low confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC Fri) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; thin flow into Asia keeps the range tight until then
NY reversal of London rally; higher lows forming above session low.
The London rally to the 0.8185 session high was fully unwound in the NY session despite the claims beat, with a sweep of the Asian low to the 0.8133 session low. Price has since printed higher lows near 0.8137 and is compressing below the 0.8159 bounce high, which stalled at the 50% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 0.8137, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8159, 0.8185
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8133 session low confirms a lower-low and negates the sweep read
M15 close above the 0.8159 bounce high reopens the path toward the 0.8185 session high
Break of the higher lows trendline near 0.8137 returns focus to the session low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.8185, NY sell-off swept the Asian low, lower highs since.
A London high and the post-claims retest formed a double top at 0.8185. USD/CHF then dropped about 53 pips in NY even as the broader dollar firmed, with CHF supported by SNB-hike talk. The move swept the Asian low at 0.8135 to a NY low of 0.8133. Since then the bounce has stalled at the 50% fib (0.8159), and late-NY trade is printing lower highs with the latest at 0.8152.
Support: 0.8133, 0.8125
Resistance: 0.8152, 0.8159, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8133 ny low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.8125 range floor
Close above the 0.8152 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; acceptance over the 0.8159 50% fib neutralises the sell-off read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 0.8125 range floor in focus
0.8185 double top caps the session range while price holds below it
17:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY reversal · RSI 37 · price 0.81443
Lower highs below 0.8159 after a sweep of the Asian low.
The NY session erased the London rally from the 0.8135 Asian low to the 0.8185 day high. It swept the Asian low to a 0.81325 session low, and the bounce met rejection at 0.81587, near the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off. Lower highs at 0.8159 and 0.8152 cap price below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.81365, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81518, 0.81587, 0.81854
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.81325 session low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the swept Asian low
Holding the 0.8137 minor low keeps price compressing under the lower-high trendline
Close above the 0.81587 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 61.8% fib near 0.8165, then the 0.8185 day high
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Intraday down from London high, basing · RSI 40 · price 0.81517
Double top at 0.8185, NY sell-off swept Asian low, higher low forming.
London capped twice at the 0.8185 london high, and NY reversed the move. A 50-pip drop after the US data, with the -0.7% ULC miss blunting the claims beat, swept the Asian low at 0.8135 to a 0.81325 ny low. Price is now basing on a 0.81365 higher low, with the rebound high at 0.8159 sitting at the 50% fib.
Support: 0.81365, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81587, 0.8171, 0.81854
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8159 rebound high and 50% fib exposes the 0.8171 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 0.81365 higher low reopens the 0.81325 ny low
Thin Asian session ahead; Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could reset this read
Lower highs after NY range break; sweep of Asian low.
USD/CHF dropped about 53 pips from the 0.8185 session high after the NY open. It cut through the London range and swept under the Asian low to a 0.8133 day low, even with the US claims beat. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 0.8159, and price sits at 0.8144 late in the NY session, holding a slight higher low at 0.8137 with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.81365, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.8159, 0.8171, 0.81854
What it said to watch
A close back above the 50% fib at 0.8159 would break the lower-high line and weaken the sell-off read
Failure to hold the 0.8133 day low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the Asian low
A reclaim of the 0.8171 breakdown level brings the 0.8185 session high back into focus
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could reset the intraday structure
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, NY reversal of London rally · RSI 32 · price 0.81443
Lower high at 0.8159 under 0.8185 double top.
London's rally off the Asian low stalled in a double top at 0.8185, the top of the 0.8125–0.8185 range cited in the market digest. NY reversed it sharply, sweeping below the Asian low to a 0.8133 day low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8159 bounce high, the 50% retracement of the drop. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 32 and CHF still firm on SNB-hike repricing.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8125
Resistance: 0.81587, 0.81853
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8133 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8125 2-month low
Reclaim of the 0.8159 bounce high (50% fib) and the NY downtrend line would undercut the reversal read
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8159 after a sweep of the Asian low.
NY session erased the London advance, dropping about 53 pips from the 0.8185 london high despite this morning's claims beat. The drop briefly swept the 0.8135 Asian low to a 0.8133 session low before reclaiming it, and the rebound stalled at the 50% retrace near 0.8159. Price is now mid-range below both EMAs, with RSI near 36 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 0.8145, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.81587, 0.8170, 0.81854
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8159 50% retrace weakens the lower-high read and exposes the 0.8170 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 0.8145 ny base reopens the 0.8133 session low; a close below confirms a lower-low
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Sharp NY reversal, rebounding off fresh low · RSI 37 · price 0.8154
London rally to 0.8185 fully unwound; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
London lifted price from the Asian low at 0.8135 to a session high of 0.8185. NY then erased the whole move despite the claims beat, sweeping the Asian low to 0.8133 before snapping back to the 38.2% retrace near 0.8153. Price now sits under the asian high at 0.8166, which lines up with the 61.8% of the sell-off fib.
Support: 0.8145, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8166, 0.8185
What it said to watch
Close back above the asian high at 0.8166 reclaims the London range and negates the sweep low as a lower-low
Failure to hold the ny pivot at 0.8145, then a break of the 0.8133 sweep low, extends the lower-low sequence
Retest of the 0.8185 session high is the line where London's rally top would come back into play
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London rally fully unwound · RSI 27 · price 0.81454
Double top at 0.8185, NY sell-off swept Asian low then stalled.
London lifted price from the 0.8135 Asian low into a double top at 0.8185. NY unwound the whole move in about 90 minutes, and the 15:45 UTC bar swept the Asian low to a 0.8133 ny low before closing back near 0.8145. RSI(14) sits near 27 with ATR expanded to about 9 pips, and price is consolidating just under the 0.8150 breakdown level as London closes.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8125
Resistance: 0.8150, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8150 breakdown level would mark the Asian-low sweep as a false break and reopen the 0.8168 London high
Acceptance below the 0.8133 ny low exposes the 0.8125 2-month low cited in the CHF digest
0.8185 double top remains the session ceiling; the NY sell-off fib 50% sits near 0.8159
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after full reversal of London rally · RSI 34 · price 0.81454
London high at 0.8185 rejected; NY leg broke below Asian low, wicked back.
London open dipped below the Asian low at 0.8135, then rallied to a 0.8185 session high. NY hours erased that entire leg in about 90 minutes, printing a fresh session low at 0.8133 before a sharp wick back to 0.8145. RSI(14) sits at 34, and the 0.8150 breakdown level now sits directly overhead.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8125
Resistance: 0.8150, 0.81657, 0.81854
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8150 breakdown and the 0.8166 Asian high would mark the dip to the session low as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.8133 session low exposes the 0.8125 range floor
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London rally fully reversed; lower high at 0.8185 double top, 0.8150 broken.
London rallied off the 0.8135 Asian low into a double top at 0.8185. NY hours then reversed it sharply, shedding roughly 40 pips in an hour despite the US claims beat and slicing through the 0.8150 break level. Price is now pressing the 0.8142 session low with about 85% of the London rally retraced and RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 0.81415, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8150, 0.8185
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.8150 break level keeps the NY selloff structure intact; a reclaim reopens the path to the 0.8185 double top
Loss of the 0.8142 session low and the 0.8135 Asian low would mark a fresh day low and a full retrace of the London rally
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London leg capped by double top at 0.8185; breakdown to 0.8150, now bouncing.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8135–0.8153 Asian range, tracking the broader USD recovery in Europe, to a double top at 0.8185. A sharp 14:45 UTC drop during NY hours flushed to the 0.8150 NY low, about 70% of the London leg. The current bar is bouncing to 0.8163, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, and the 0.8170 breakdown level is the first cap.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8170, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8170 breakdown level puts the 0.8185 double top back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8150 NY low exposes the 0.8135 Asian low, the triple-tested floor
Price is at the 61.8% of the London leg fib; acceptance below it confirms the London leg is unwound
No scheduled events in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines are the main swing risk for safe-haven CHF flows
Double top at 0.8185 rejected; NY drop holding above the Asian low.
London lifted USDCHF off the triple-tested 0.8135 Asian low into a double top at 0.8185. NY hours then delivered a rejection, a 35-pip drop to the 0.8150 NY low through the London trendline, despite firm US claims and productivity data at 13:30 GMT. Price is retracing about 38% of that drop near 0.8163, still under the 0.8169 breakdown level and both EMAs.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8169, 0.8185
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8169 breakdown and the 61.8% fib (~0.8172) negates the double top rejection
Failure to hold the 0.8150 NY low re-exposes the 0.8135 Asian low and range floor
Fri 13:30 GMT NFP (f/c 65K) and Williams at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend since London open, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 0.81792
Higher lows pressing a flat 0.8185 cap.
London reversed the Asia-session slide from 0.8135, broke the Asian range high and ran to a 0.8185 session high, which matches yesterday's high and has rejected price twice into NY. The 13:30 GMT US claims and productivity beats added little. Price is now coiling on higher lows above 0.8177, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.81771, 0.81704, 0.81661
Resistance: 0.81855, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8185 session high clears yesterday's high and opens the key resistance at 0.8205
Close below the 0.8177 higher lows breaks the intraday chain and exposes the 0.8170 swing low
Failure at the 0.8170 swing low puts the fib 38.2 of the London rally at 0.8166 in play
Schlegel/SNB headlines and the run-up to Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Uptrend since London open, stalling under 0.8185 · RSI 62 · price 0.81815
Higher lows compressing beneath a flat 0.8185 cap above the Asian range.
London broke the Asian range (0.8135–0.8165) and ran about 50 pips to 0.8185. That level matches yesterday's prior high and has capped three times, most recently in the first hour of NY. A higher low at 0.8177 is compressing price into the cap as USD steadies on the beat in jobless claims (189K vs 196K), a print the pair absorbed with little range expansion.
Support: 0.8177, 0.8171, 0.8165
Resistance: 0.8185, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8185 prior high opens the path to 0.8205 key resist
Loss of the 0.8177 higher low, then the 0.8171 swing low, breaks the London HL chain
A fall back toward the 0.8165 asian high (38.2% fib of the London rally) would put the breakout into retest
SNB Schlegel headlines and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling into a range · RSI 62 · price 0.81793
London HH/HL chain off the Asian low, now a flat range below 0.8185.
London reversed the Asian sell-off from a triple base at the 0.8135 Asian low. It rallied about 50 pips through a 0.8153 London higher low to 0.8185, where the prior high from yesterday's NY session capped it. Since 12:15 UTC the London trendline has broken and price is ranging 0.8172–0.8183 above the pullback low. The firm 189K claims print at 13:30 UTC gave only a shallow push, and price is still below 0.8185 in the first hour of NY.
Support: 0.8172, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81855, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8185 prior high breaks the session cap and opens the 0.8205 key resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8172 pullback low turns the range into a deeper retracement of the London rally toward the 0.8153 London higher low
A return below the 0.8135 Asian low would erase the London rally
Schlegel speech headlines and Fri NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 0.8135 low, now a tight range under 0.8186.
London lifted USDCHF off the 0.8135 asian low, tested three times, and broke the Asian range on a HH/HL chain into yesterday's 0.8186 prior high as the US claims beat steadied USD. Early NY shows a rejection at that high and is now holding a 0.8171–0.8185 range. Schlegel's 13:30 UTC speech drew little reaction, and RSI(14) is near 56.
Support: 0.8171, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high breaks the double-test cap and opens the 0.8200 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8171 range low exposes the 0.8153 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the London leg
A drop back through 0.8153 would put the 0.8135 asian low back in view and unwind the London rally
Late Schlegel headlines on FX intervention or hikes could still jolt CHF; US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
HH/HL from Asian low, now compressing in a 0.8170–0.8183 band.
Asia triple-tested the 0.8135 asian low before the London rally lifted USD/CHF through the Asian range as the dollar steadied post-midterms. The rally stalled at 0.8185, just under the 0.8186 prior high. Since 11:45 UTC price has compressed between the 0.8170 band low and 0.8183 band top, with RSI(14) near 58 as the Schlegel speech and US jobless claims land at 13:30 UTC.
Support: 0.8170, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8183, 0.8186
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high clears the double cap and extends the London HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.8170 band low marks a lower high and puts the 38.2% London rally fib near 0.8166 in play
A break below the 0.8153 london low unwinds most of the London rally toward the 0.8135 asian low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 0.81816
Higher-low chain from 0.8135, compressing under 0.8186 prior high.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.8166 and extended the rally from the 0.8135 Asia floor to 0.8185, as USD steadied on Fed hike pricing after the overnight slide. Since 11:45 GMT, highs have stalled just under yesterday's 0.8186 prior high while the higher low at 0.8175 holds on the higher-low trendline, compressing price into the late-London window. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.81745, 0.81704, 0.81657
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.8190
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims and SNB Schlegel's speech, both at 13:30 GMT, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high breaks the two-session cap and opens the 0.8190 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8175 higher low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8170 swing low
A move back under the 0.8166 Asian high and London rally 38.2% would undo the range break
Higher-low chain since London open, now coiling between 0.8171 and 0.8186.
London opened with a sweep of the asian low at 0.8135, then rallied about 50 pips in higher-low steps through the london hl at 0.8153 as USD recovered on strong data and Fed hike pricing. Price is now capped just under the prior high at 0.8186, where a lower high formed at 0.8183, and holds above the 0.8171 swing low with RSI(14) at a neutral 59.
Support: 0.81705, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81858
What it said to watch
Schlegel speech and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50, land within the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high breaks the two-touch cap
Failure to hold the 0.8171 swing low breaks the London trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the london hl at 0.8153 near the 61.8% of the London rally fib
Loss of 0.8153 puts the asian low at 0.8135 back in view
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at prior high · RSI 59 · price 0.81774
Higher lows from 0.8135, capped below 0.8186.
The London rally lifted USD/CHF off the 0.8135 Asia low, tested three times overnight, as the dollar recovered on the data focus. It has built a higher-low chain up to the 0.8172 swing low. Price is now capped at 0.8180–0.8185, just under yesterday's 0.8186 prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 0.8172, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8172 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8153 higher low.
A close above the 0.8186 prior high clears yesterday's peak and opens the path to the 0.8200 round number.
US Jobless Claims and SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read.
A failure back into the Asian range below 0.8153 would unwind most of the London rally.
12:46 UTC
Uptrend since London open, stalling at prior high · RSI 66 · price 0.81777
Higher lows from 0.8135 sweep; rejection at 0.8185 double-tap.
London swept the 0.8135 Asian lows at the open, then broke above the 0.8166 asian high. The move built higher lows on the USD recovery from solid US data. The London leg stalled at 0.8185 at 11:45 UTC, matching yesterday's NY prior high, and price is now holding just above the 0.8171 swing low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooling to 66.
Support: 0.8171, 0.8166, 0.8153
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8186 prior high voids the rejection and opens the 0.8200 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8171 swing low exposes the 0.8166 asian high, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib
Loss of the 0.8153 london hl breaks the higher-low chain
US Jobless Claims and SNB's Schlegel, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 67 · price 0.81755
HH/HL chain from the 0.8135 Asian low, capped at 0.8186.
London reversed the Asia slide from the 0.8135 Asian low as the dollar pared post-midterm losses, building higher lows at 0.8153 and the 0.8170 swing low along a rising trendline. The late-London push met rejection at 0.8185, matching yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8186, with RSI(14) easing from near 70.
Support: 0.8170, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high breaks the two-day cap; failure keeps a double rejection in play below the 0.8180 swing high
A break of the 0.8170 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8153 higher low near the 50% fib
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Loss of 0.8153 would put the 0.8135 Asian low back in focus
Higher lows off a 0.8135 triple bottom, capped at 0.8186.
Asia carved a triple bottom at the 0.8135 asian low. London broke the Asian range high near 0.8166 as the dollar pared post-midterm losses, lifting price into yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8186 with higher lows at 0.8153 and 0.8170. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8170, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high clears yesterday's NY high and opens the 0.8200 round number
Break of the 0.8170 swing low and the London rising trendline turns the higher-low chain
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Return below the 0.8135 asian low negates the triple bottom
12:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London open, testing prior high · RSI 66 · price 0.8179
Higher lows since 0.8135 Asian low, Asian range broken to the upside.
The London leg reversed the Asian sell-off from the 0.8135 Asian low, cleared the 0.8166 Asian high and has since printed higher lows up to the 0.8170 swing low. The USD is paring post-midterm losses, and price is pressing yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8186 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8170, 0.8166, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high clears yesterday's range top and opens the 0.8200 round number
Break below the 0.8170 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the London HL chain, putting the 0.8166 Asian high in focus
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US jobless claims at the same time, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.8135 Asian low would undo the entire London reversal
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low · RSI 67 · price 0.81764
Higher lows since Asian low, testing session high.
London open briefly swept the Asian low at 0.8135, then reversed the overnight slide. Price rallied 45 pips through the Asian range to a 0.8180 session high, printing higher lows at 0.8153 and 0.8170, in line with the digest's modest USD bounce in European trade. RSI(14) sits near 67 with price above both EMAs, and yesterday's 0.8186 prior high is the next cap overhead.
Support: 0.81704, 0.81529, 0.81349
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8180 session high exposes the 0.8186 prior high
Break of the 0.8170 swing low and the London trendline turns focus to the 0.8153 higher low and the 0.8158–0.8163 zone of the London rally fib
Loss of 0.8153 undoes the London higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.8135 Asian low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London open, stalling at session high · RSI 63 · price 0.81731
Asian range breakout, higher-low chain from 0.8135.
Three tests of the 0.8135 asian low held overnight. London then broke the 0.8135–0.8160 Asian range and built a higher-low chain to a 0.8180 session high, where it met rejection just shy of yesterday's 0.8186 NY prior high. Price is holding the 0.8170 pullback low above the higher-low trendline, a bounce that runs against the USD-heavy, CHF-firm backdrop.
Support: 0.8170, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8170 pullback low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8153 higher low, near the 61.8% of the London rally fib
Failure to hold 0.8153 puts the 0.8135 asian low back in play
Close above the 0.8186 prior high clears yesterday's NY session top
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.81725
HH/HL chain off 0.8135 double bottom; Asian range high cleared.
London lifted USD/CHF off a 0.8135 session low double bottom, clearing the Asian range and building higher lows into a 0.8180 session high, in line with the digest's modest European-hours USD bounce. The 10:45 UTC bar rejected that high just under yesterday's 0.8186 NY high, and price is holding the rising trendline near 0.8171 with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 0.81684, 0.81529, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8168 prior high and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.8153 higher low, near the 61.8% fib of the London leg, exposes the 0.8135 session low
M15 close above the 0.8186 NY high extends the London leg beyond the rejection
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE at 12:00 UTC adds cross-currents
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.81725
Higher lows 0.8135 → 0.8153 → 0.8169 in London, with a rejection at 0.8180.
After three tests of the 0.8135 Asian low, London broke above the Asian range. The London leg printed a higher low at 0.8153 and a session high at 0.8180 as the USD saw a modest European bounce against its broader post-midterm sell-off. The 10:45 UTC bar rejected 0.8180 just shy of yesterday's 0.8186 prior high, and RSI(14) is cooling to ~64.
Support: 0.8169, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8186
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8169 minor low and the rising trendline turns the London leg into a pullback toward the 0.8153 higher low.
A break of the 0.8153 higher low ends the HL chain and reopens the 0.8135 Asian low.
An M15 close above the 0.8186 prior high clears yesterday's NY peak and invalidates the rejection read.
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read.
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI hot · RSI 76 · price 0.81752
London HH/HL chain after breaking the Asian range high.
London broke the Asian high near 0.8166 and ran about 42 pips off the 0.8135 Asian low. That fits the modest USD bounce in European trade, with price reclaiming the 0.8159 100-day SMA and RSI(14) near 76. Mid-London, price is pressing yesterday's NY range top at 0.8178, with the 0.8153 higher low holding under the London trendline.
Support: 0.8166, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8178, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 prior day high clears yesterday's NY range top and extends the London HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.8153 higher low breaks the London trendline and opens a return toward the Asian high at 0.8166
Rejection at the 0.8178 NY range top would point to a pullback within the London leg
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, US jobless claims at the same time and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, HH/HL chain since London open · RSI 74 · price 0.81745
Triple-touch Asian low at 0.8135 reversed; London rally into yesterday's NY range.
London session reversed the full Asian slide. Price rose off a triple-touch Asian low at 0.8135 and is now printing higher highs and higher lows, with the 0.8153 swing low as the last pivot. That fits the digest's modest early-Europe USD bounce. Price is now pressing the NY range top near 0.8177 with RSI(14) warm at ~74, and the earlier london high at 0.8168 sits just below as first support.
Support: 0.81684, 0.81529, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81775, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8177 NY range top opens yesterday's prior high at 0.8186
A drop back below the 0.8168 london high and the rising London line puts the 0.8153 swing low in play
Loss of the 0.8135 Asian low would void the triple bottom read
BoE at 12:00 GMT, US claims at 13:30 GMT and Schlegel at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, testing session high · RSI 68 · price 0.81704
Asian low swept at London open, HH/HL chain since.
London open swept the 0.8135 asian low and reversed, clearing the Asian range top through the 0.8168 breakout lvl. A 0.8153 higher low held, and the move printed a 0.8174 session high mid-London with RSI(14) near 68. The London leg reads as a modest USD recovery after the two-day, CHF-driven selloff.
Support: 0.8168, 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8186
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.8168 breakout lvl on pullbacks keeps the Asian-range break intact
M15 close below the 0.8153 higher low and the London trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.8174 session high exposes yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8186
BoE at 12:00 UTC, then SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London open low · RSI 69 · price 0.81704
Higher highs and higher lows since 07:00 UTC, Asian range broken to the upside.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian low at 0.8135, then reversed through the Asian high at 0.8166. A higher low at 0.8153 fed a session high of 0.8174, with RSI(14) near 69. The bounce cuts against a USD that is heavy on the post-midterm selloff and a CHF still firm on the hot CPI, with yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8186 the next cap overhead.
Support: 0.81657, 0.81529, 0.81349
Resistance: 0.81741, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8174 session high exposes the 0.8186 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8153 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain
Slip back below the 0.8166 Asian high turns the range break into a false break
BoE at 12:00 GMT, then US claims and SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 0.81622
Asian triple bottom broken, London high rejected, higher low held.
Asia carved a triple bottom near the 0.8135 asian low. London broke out from it at the open, and the move ran through the Asian range top to a 0.8168 london high before a rejection. The pullback held a higher low at 0.8153, near the 50% fib of the rally, and price is back at 0.8162 as the USD claws back some post-midterm losses in early Europe.
Support: 0.81529, 0.81349
Resistance: 0.81684, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8168 london high reopens the 0.8186 prior high
Loss of the 0.8153 higher low and rising support returns focus to the 0.8135 asian low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:30 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader decline · RSI 59 · price 0.81578
Higher low after double bottom, capped at London high.
Asia extended the post-midterm USD slide and firm-CHF move to a 0.8135 double btm, retested at the London open, before London lifted the pair to a 0.8168 london high just above the Asian range top, where it met rejection. The pullback held the 0.8153 london low near the 50% fib, and price sits mid-London around 0.8158, inside the 0.8135–0.8186 span between the double btm and yesterday's NY prior high.
Support: 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8168, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8153 london low breaks the rising support and reopens the 0.8135 double btm
Close above the 0.8168 london high clears the Asian range rejection and opens the 0.8186 prior high
SNB's Schlegel and US Jobless Claims, both 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Rebound off asian low, pausing below London high · RSI 63 · price 0.81586
Triple bottom at 0.8135, London breakout then shallow pullback.
Three Asia-session tests of the asian low at 0.8135 held, and London open broke higher 33 pips to a 0.8168 london high before a rejection pulled price back to the 0.8157 pullback low, near the 38.2% fib of the move. The bounce matches the dollar's early-Europe claw-back after the midterm and oil selloff. The prior high at 0.8186 sits above.
Support: 0.81568, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81684, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8157 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 0.8152 and the asian low at 0.8135
Close above the 0.8168 london high reopens the prior high at 0.8186
US Jobless Claims and SNB Schlegel at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Rebound off Asian lows, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 0.81586
Triple-bottom base at 0.8135, early-London breakout rejected at 0.8168.
Asia printed a triple bottom at the 0.8135 asian low after yesterday's midterm- and oil-driven USD slide. Early London then broke the 0.8153 Asian range top and ran to a 0.8168 london high, but the 08:45 bar rejected it. Price is now holding just above the 38.2% retracement of the london rally near 0.8156 and the 0.8151 swing low. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.81513, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81684, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8151 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.8148 and the 0.8135 asian low
M15 close back above the 0.8168 london high reopens yesterday's 0.8186 prior high
US jobless claims and SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Asian range break into London, HH/HL chain from 0.8135.
Asia held a triple bottom at the 0.8135 asian low. The range break into the London open lifted price about 29 pips, with a higher low at the 0.8151 pullback low. RSI(14) is near 70 as price tests the 0.8166 asia open high, cutting against the soft-USD, firm-CHF backdrop, with the 0.8176 ny shelf and the 0.8186 prior high above.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8166, 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8166 asia open erases the Asia drop and exposes the 0.8176 ny shelf, then the 0.8186 prior high
A break of the london rise trendline and the 0.8151 pullback low undercuts the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.8135 asian low reopens the 0.8127 two-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
Triple-tested asia low at 0.8135, lower-high sequence broken.
Around the London open USD/CHF lifted 21 pips off the triple-tested asia low at 0.8135, breaking the Asian lower-high trendline. The bounce stalled at the 0.8157 london high, right at the 61.8% fib of the Asia decline from the 0.8166 asia high, and runs against a firm CHF on hot CPI and SNB hike bets plus a heavy post-midterm USD. RSI(14) sits near 63 and price is back above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8145, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.81569, 0.81657, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8157 london high and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8166 asia high, then the 0.8186 prior high
Slip back below the 0.8145 breakout area returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 0.8135 asia low voids the triple bottom read and exposes Wednesday's 0.8127 low
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Asia downtrend reversed at London open · RSI 56 · price 0.81543
Triple low at 0.8135 held; price back above Asian lower range.
Asia session extended the USD-led slide, with the dollar heavy after the midterm sweep and CHF firm on the hot CPI, into a triple low at 0.8135. London open broke that low by a pip, then reversed 21 pips through the Asia lower-highs line and back above the 0.8153 asia ceiling. Price is now stalling at the 0.8157 london high, the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.8170 asia high, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.8153, 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8157, 0.8170
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8153 asia ceiling negates the London-open reversal
Acceptance above the 0.8157 london high / 61.8% fib opens the 0.8170 asia high
Break of the 0.8135 triple low exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound testing it · RSI 66 · price 0.81544
Asian range 0.8135–0.8153 swept at the low, then broken at the high.
Post-midterm dollar selling pressed USD/CHF through Asia, and price held a 0.8135–0.8153 Asian range. London open swept the 0.8135 Asian low, then reversed about 21 pips through the 0.8153 Asian high. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of the 0.8186 prior high to 0.8135 drop, with RSI(14) near 66 and the 0.8160 round number (50%) and 0.8166 fib 61.8 directly overhead.
Support: 0.8153, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8160, 0.8166, 0.8186
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8153 Asian high puts price back inside the range and turns the London move into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8166 fib 61.8 opens Wednesday's 0.8186 prior high
A break of the 0.8135 Asian low would confirm a lower-low and resume the drop
Schlegel speech and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; London open retesting the Asian low.
Selling resumed from the 0.8166 Asian high as the post-midterm USD slide continued, and London open is now retesting the 0.8135 Asian low, tagged twice overnight. Lower highs at 0.8153 and 0.8147 cap each bounce. RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched.
Support: 0.81351, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81472, 0.81657
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8135 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8127 2-month low
Reclaiming the 0.8147 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high chain and opens a return toward the 0.8166 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims and SNB's Schlegel, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8186 NY high; small base at 0.8135.
Post-midterm USD selling extended through the Asia session, taking USDCHF from the 0.8166 asian high to the 0.8135 asian low, which held twice. The bounce has stalled at the 0.8147 bounce high, with price back near the 0.8139 swing low and below EMA20 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8139, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8147, 0.8155, 0.8166
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8135 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence toward Wednesday's 0.8127 two-month low
Close above the 0.8147 bounce high breaks the Asian micro-base; the 0.8155 fib 38.2 of the NY high–asian low drop is next
Descending resistance from the 0.8186 NY high stays intact unless price reclaims the 0.8166 asian high
Challenger cuts at 10:30 UTC, then US claims and SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the Asian low · RSI 47 · price 0.81443
Lower highs from 0.8186; Asia base at 0.8135 with two matching lows.
Broad USD selling on the Democratic sweep and the oil slump took USD/CHF from the 0.8186 prior high, set after Wednesday's ADP beat, down to the 0.8135 Asian low. Two lows held there, at 01:15 and 04:15 UTC, and price is drifting at 0.8144 into London open, just under the high-to-low fib's shallow retracement zone. The double bottom stays unconfirmed below the 0.8153 bounce high, and ranges have compressed to about 4 pips per bar.
Support: 0.81351, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81531, 0.81657, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8153 bounce high confirms the double bottom and brings the 38.2–50% high-to-low fib (0.8155–0.8161) and the 0.8166 asian high into view
Failure to hold the 0.8135 asian low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.8127 2m low
Recovery through 0.8166 opens the path back toward the 0.8186 prior high
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, with US jobless claims at 13:30 and Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at Asia lows · RSI 46 · price 0.81443
Asian lower-high line broken; double low at 0.8135 holding.
USD/CHF broke below yesterday's NY range during Asia on broad USD selling, with an equal-low double bottom at the 0.8135 asia low (01:15 and 04:15 UTC). Price has cleared the Asian lower-high line and is pressing the 0.8145 bounce high ahead of London open. The 0.8153 neckline, which also sits at the 38.2% retracement of the NY high–Asia low move, remains untested.
Support: 0.8139, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8145, 0.8153, 0.8164
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8153 neckline confirms the double bottom and opens the 0.8164 ny range low
Failure to hold the 0.8139 minor low puts the 0.8135 asia low back in play
A break below 0.8135 resumes the downtrend toward the 0.8127 two-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
The Asia session extended the haven-driven USD selling, dropping from the 0.8166 Asian high to a 0.8135 Asian low that has now held twice. Late in Asia, price is compressing below a descending line of lower highs. The latest lower high is at 0.8145 and the last swing high is at 0.8153, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to about 4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.81351, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81453, 0.81531, 0.81657
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8135 Asian low exposes the 0.8127 2m low cited in the digest
M15 close above the 0.8145 lower high breaks the descending trendline; above the 0.8153 swing high, the asian selloff fib comes into play toward 0.8166
SNB Chair Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US jobless claims at the same time, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8171, base at 0.8135, retest of broken prior low.
The Asian decline extended the post-midterm USD selloff and haven CHF bid, breaking yesterday's 0.8145 prior low and printing 0.8135 twice (01:15 and 04:15 UTC). RSI(14) sits near 37. The 04:45 UTC bounce stalled at the prior low on a retest from below, with lower highs still capping price ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8145, 0.8153
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8153 neckline confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower-highs chain
Rejection at the 0.8145 prior low keeps the retest intact; a break of the 0.8135 Asian low exposes the 0.8127 2m low
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC Thu feed the NFP pre-read
Lower highs from the Asia high; below prior-day range, double low at 0.8135.
The Asia session broke below Wednesday's 0.8146 prior low as haven CHF demand and a soft USD extended the slide. The Asia low at 0.8135 held twice. The late-Asia bounce is stalling at that prior low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) near 43 and price under EMA20.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8146, 0.8153, 0.8166
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8146 prior low reclaims the broken range floor; clearing the 0.8153 swing high puts the 0.8166 asia high back in view.
Failure to hold the 0.8135 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.8127 2m low.
London open is about 2h away and typically resolves the tight late-Asia range.
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs through Asia, twin lows at 0.8135, small bounce.
The Asia session extended the post-midterm USD slide from the 0.8166 Asia high, with CHF firm on SNB tightening talk. Price printed a double low at 0.8135 (01:15 and 04:15 UTC) and is now holding just under the 0.8145 bounce high, still below the 23.6% level of the Asia drop fib.
Support: 0.81351, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81453, 0.8153, 0.81657
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8153 neckline, also the 50% retracement of the Asia drop, confirms the double bottom
Break of the 0.8135 double low resumes the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8127 2-month low
London open in ~2-3h tests whether 0.8145 bounce high caps or gives way
SNB Schlegel and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia break below Wednesday's range low, LH/LL chain intact.
Asia session sold off from 0.8165 and broke the 0.8147 prior low, the floor of Wednesday's range. Since then a falling trendline has capped every bounce, and the latest lower high sits at 0.8142. Price is pressing the 0.8135 asian low late in Asia with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet stretched, extending post-midterm USD selling and the CHF bid after Schlegel's hawkish remarks.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8142, 0.8147, 0.8153
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8142 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.8147 prior low puts price back inside Wednesday's range, with the fib 50% at 0.8153 above
Acceptance below the 0.8135 asian low exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
London open is the first test of whether the Asian break holds
US Jobless Claims and SNB's Schlegel both at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, stretched · RSI 24 · price 0.81362
Lower-high chain under a falling trendline, pressing the Asian low.
Late Asia session has unwound yesterday's ADP-driven NY spike to 0.8186. Price slid from the 0.8165 Asia open in a steady lower-high sequence under a falling trendline as post-midterm USD selling resumed. Price is now pressing the 0.8135 Asian low with the prior low at 0.8133 just beneath, RSI(14) stretched near 24 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8142, 0.8153, 0.8165
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8133 prior low exposes the 0.8127 two-month low
Close above the 0.8142 lower high breaks the Asia trendline, with 0.8153 swing high next
Reclaim of the 0.8165 asia open would negate the session downtrend
London open in under 3h typically resets the Asian range
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near Asian low · RSI 20 · price 0.81377
Lower highs since the 01:15 UTC Asian low, grinding back toward it.
Asia erased the whole NY rally to 0.8186 that followed the firm ADP print, dropping from the 0.8166 Asian high to a 0.8135 Asian low as CHF stayed firm on Schlegel's hawkish SNB comments. The bounce high at 0.8153 stalled below the 38.2% fib, and each lower high since has been capped by a falling trendline. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 20.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81328, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81485, 0.81531, 0.81657
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8135 Asian low exposes the 0.8133 prior low, then the 0.8127 2-month low
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.8149 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.8153 bounce high is the next cap
Reclaiming the 0.8166 Asian high would neutralise the overnight leg
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8153, pressing the Asia spike low.
The Asia session broke the 0.8163–0.8176 NY range floor, resuming the post-midterm USD selling. Price has printed a chain of lower highs off 0.8153 and now sits on the 0.8135 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 24. The prior low at 0.8133 is just below, with the 0.8127 two-month low the next reference.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81328, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.81628
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8149 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.8133 prior low exposes the 0.8127 2m low
A reclaim of the 0.8163 range floor would neutralise the Asia breakdown and return price to the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY high-to-Asia low move
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing the 0.8139 Asia base after a break of the prior NY low.
The Asia session sold USDCHF from the 0.8170 Asia open to a 0.8135 spike low, breaking the prior NY low at 0.8146 as post-midterm USD selling resumed. The bounce stalled at the 0.8153 lower high, the 50% retracement of the Asia drop. A chain of lower highs has since compressed price onto the 0.8139 Asia base, with RSI(14) near 30 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.8139, 0.8135
Resistance: 0.8146, 0.8153, 0.8170
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8139 Asia base and the 0.8135 spike low extends the lower-low sequence into London open
A recovery above the prior NY low at 0.8146 breaks the lower-highs line, and a close above the 0.8153 lower high negates the Asia breakdown
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.8186 NY high; Asia broke the late-NY range floor, now basing above 0.8135.
Asia broke below the late-NY 0.8164–0.8176 range floor and slid to a 0.8135 session low. Price has since stalled in a tight 0.8139–0.8153 band, below both EMAs, just above yesterday's 0.8133 prior low as USD stays heavy after the midterms. Late Asia, with London open about 4h out.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81328
Resistance: 0.81531, 0.8164, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8135 session low and 0.8133 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8127 two-month low
Close above the 0.8153 bounce high and the 38.2% fib near 0.8155 turns the Asian band into a base
Reclaiming the 0.8164 range floor, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, negates the Asian break; the 0.8186 ny high caps above
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia leg lower · RSI 25 · price 0.81428
Lower highs below broken NY low.
The Asia session sold off from the 0.8171 asian high and broke Wednesday's NY low at 0.8146. Price spiked to an asian low of 0.8135, where a wick rejection held just above the prior low at 0.8133. Rebounds have been capped along a descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 25 and price below both EMAs as USD stays soft after the midterms.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81328
Resistance: 0.81455, 0.81531, 0.81706
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8146 ny low and the 0.8153 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8135 asian low and 0.8133 prior low exposes the 0.8127 two-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Mid-Asia session, the dollar's post-midterm slide resumed. USDCHF broke the 0.8164 range floor of Wednesday's NY trade and the 0.8146 prior low, tagging an asia low at 0.8135, just above the 0.8133 24h low. Lower highs since 00:00 UTC cap price under 0.8153, with RSI(14) near 31 as price holds a tight 0.8139–0.8148 band.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81328, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81455, 0.81531, 0.81636
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8153 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline sequence
A break of the 0.8133 24h low exposes the 0.8127 2-month low cited in the digest
Reclaiming the 0.8146 prior low, then the 0.8164 range floor, returns price to Wednesday's NY range
Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the Asia low · RSI 26 · price 0.81439
Lower highs through Asia, tight compression at 0.8140–0.8150.
The Asia session broke the 0.8162 NY range low and the London low near 0.8146, printing an Asia low at 0.8135 as post-midterm USD softness and SNB-tightening talk weighed. The bounce stalled at the 0.8153 bounce high. Price is now compressing above a 0.8139 higher low, under the Asia down-line and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 0.81393, 0.81354, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81531, 0.81623, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8139 higher low reopens the 0.8135 Asia low, then the 0.8127 24h low (two-month low)
M15 close above the 0.8153 bounce high and the Asia down-line, near the 38.2% of the NY high-Asia low drop, eases the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.8162 NY range low puts the 0.8186 NY high back in focus
London open in ~4h typically resets the Asian range
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selling extending · RSI 24 · price 0.81404
Lower highs below broken NY range floor.
Early Asia session broke below Wednesday's 0.8164–0.8178 NY range from the asia high at 0.8166. Price is sliding to 0.8140 under a chain of lower highs, with USD still heavy after the midterm result. A 01:15 UTC wick to the 0.8135 asia low was bought, but the bounce high at 0.8153 capped the recovery. The 2-month low at 0.8127 sits 13 pips below.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8153, 0.8166
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8135 asia low exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
M15 close above the 0.8153 bounce high breaks the asia lower highs line
Reclaim of the 0.8166 asia high negates the range break
RSI(14) near 24: a sub-20 reading would flag stretched short-term selling
US jobless claims and SNB's Schlegel, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8186; prior NY range broken lower.
The Asian session extended the post-midterm USD selling. Price cut through the 0.8164 range floor and Wednesday's 0.8146 London low, extending a lower-high sequence from the 0.8186 NY high. RSI(14) near 19 is oversold after the spike to the 0.8135 Asian low, with the 0.8127 2-month low just beneath.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8146, 0.8155, 0.8164
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8127 2-month low opens the path to the 0.8100 round number
An M15 close back above the 0.8146 London low would mark the breakdown as a false break, with the 0.8155 fib 38.2 of the NY high–Asian low leg next
A reclaim of the 0.8164 range floor would restore the prior NY range read
The SNB's Schlegel speech and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.8186 session high; early Asia broke below the 0.8163 overnight range floor.
Early Asia slipped through the 0.8163 range floor and has unwound most of the NY rally from 0.8146 to 0.8186. Price is stalling near the 78.6% retracement with RSI(14) around 30. Lower highs since the session high frame the drift, against a backdrop of post-midterm USD weakness and a firmer franc on SNB tightening talk.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8163, 0.81858
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8163 range floor negates the Asia range break
A break of the 0.8146 NY low exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
A move through the lower-highs line toward 0.8186 would reset the structure
01:01 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 31 · price 0.81548
Late-NY range 0.8163–0.8176 broken lower in early Asia.
Early Asia slipped through the 0.8163 range base that held all of late NY. Price has now given back most of the NY rally from the 0.8146 swing low to the 0.8186 NY high, running below the 61.8% retracement with lower highs on the descending line from that peak. Price is pressing the 0.8154 asian low, below the 0.8171 asian high, with RSI(14) near 31 and the post-midterm USD softness still in the backdrop.
Support: 0.8154, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8163, 0.8171, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8163 range base negates the breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.8146 swing low opens the 0.8127 2-month low
Break of the NY high descending line above 0.8171 asian high shifts structure back to range
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 34 · price 0.81585
Asian range floor at 0.8163 broken; lower-high chain off 0.8186.
Early Asia slipped out of the 0.8163–0.8172 range floor to an Asian low of 0.8154, the 78.6% retracement of the 0.8146 swing low to 0.8186 NY high rally, with each bounce since the NY high capped by a lower high. The dollar stays heavy after the midterm sweep, and RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.81541, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8163, 0.81706, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8154 Asian low exposes the 0.8146 swing low, then the 0.8127 2-month low
M15 close back above the 0.8163 range floor negates the break; the 0.8171 lower high caps above that
SNB's Schlegel plus US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Low Asian-session ATR (~5 pips) means moves are thin until London open
00:31 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 0.81645
Lower highs since NY high, compressing above 0.8160.
The firm ADP print lifted USDCHF from the 0.8146 adp low to the 0.8186 day high during NY. Since then a falling trendline of lower highs, latest at 0.8172, has capped price. Early Asia is probing the 0.8160 asia low, near the 61.8% fib of that move, in a thin 4-pip ATR tape.
Support: 0.8160, 0.81455
Resistance: 0.81721, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8160 asia low exposes the 0.8146 adp low
Close above the 0.8172 lower high breaks the falling trendline
Retake of the 0.8186 day high negates the lower-high sequence
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the NY high compressing into a 0.8162 range floor.
Post-midterm USD selling drove Wednesday's Asia slide to the 0.8127 two-month low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8186 NY high, and lower highs under the trendline have since pressed price onto the 0.8162 range floor in early Asia, near the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8157, 0.8146
Resistance: 0.8168, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 range floor opens the 50% fib at 0.8157 and the 0.8146 NY low
Break above the trendline near 0.8168 negates the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8186 NY high back in play
Thu 13:30 UTC: SNB's Schlegel speech and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Sideways after recovery, drifting lower into Asia open · RSI 35 · price 0.81613
Day range 0.8146–0.8186; lower highs since NY high, late-session floor 0.8162 giving way.
The post-midterm flush to the 0.8127 2-month low in Wednesday's Asia session was recovered by the 0.8186 day high after ADP, but NY then printed lower highs, capped at the 0.8176 late ny high. Price is slipping under the 0.8162 late-session floor at the Asia open with RSI(14) near 35, below both EMAs, and sits around the 38.2% of the recovery fib.
Support: 0.8151, 0.81455, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81806, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8151 london low exposes the 0.8146 ny low and the recovery fib 50–61.8% zone
A break of the 0.8146 ny low reopens the 0.8127 2-month low
Recovery above the lower highs line and the 0.8176 late ny high puts the 0.8181 london high and 0.8186 day high back in play
US jobless claims and SNB Schlegel, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read