Higher lows off a 0.8127/0.8133 double bottom; 0.8185 range top retested after Sunday gap.
USD/CHF set a week low at 0.8127 in Wednesday's Asia session on the CHF haven bid and held a matching 0.8133 low into Thursday's NY session, forming a double bottom. Friday's NY-session NFP beat (165K vs 65K) then broke the 0.8185 range top and lifted price to a 0.8220 week high. Sunday's open gapped 22 pips lower onto the range top, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the week's move, and price has since recovered to 0.8200, above EMA(20) at 0.8192, with RSI(14) near 58 and the 0.8207 Friday close still unfilled.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8185, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8207, 0.8220
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8185 range top and the higher-lows trendline would return price to the 0.8127–0.8185 range
A gap fill through the 0.8207 Friday close puts the 0.8220 week high back in play
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) keep the post-NFP higher-low sequence intact; a loss of it shifts focus to the range top
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday, then Waller and US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom 0.8127/0.8133 resolved higher through 0.8185 range top.
CHF haven demand drove Wednesday's Asia-session flush to the 0.8127 week low, and Thursday's NY-session retest stalled at 0.8133 to form a double bottom under a 0.8185 range top. Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) carried price through the range top to a 0.8220 week high in the first hour of NY. The pullback held the 38.2% fib near 0.8184, and Friday's higher lows kept the close at 0.8207 above ema20 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.8190, 0.8185, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8220
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8185 range top would turn the NFP range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8220 week high extends the breakout from the double bottom
A break of the Friday higher-lows trendline would put the ema20 and 0.8185 under pressure
Fed speakers Mon and Waller at 09:00 UTC Tue, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Renewed risk-off or SNB hawkish rhetoric could revive the CHF bid toward the 0.8127 week low
21:03 UTC
Range-bound, Friday rebound to the top · RSI 64 · price 0.82071
Higher lows since Thursday inside a 0.8127–0.8220 range.
USD/CHF spent the week in a 0.8127–0.8220 range. Wednesday's Asia-session drop on the midterm result set the week low at 0.8127, and Thursday's NY selloff stalled at 0.8133 before a rising trendline of higher lows took over. The blowout NFP lifted the pair into the NY session Friday to a 0.8220 week high, just above the 0.8217 Tuesday high. The pullback held the 0.8184 pullback low near the 38.2% of the Thursday–Friday leg, and the week closed at 0.8207, above EMA(20) at 0.8191, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8184, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8217, 0.8220
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8220 week high would break the range top that has now capped both the 0.8217 Tuesday high and Friday's NFP spike
A loss of the ema20 and the 0.8184 pullback low would break the rising trendline from Thursday's low
A return below the 0.8133 Thursday low would expose the 0.8127 week low and the range floor
US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Waller earlier that day and Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speaking Monday
20:20 UTC
Range-bound week, rebounding into range top · RSI 68 · price 0.82071
0.8127–0.8220 weekly range; higher lows since Thursday.
CHF strength drove Wednesday's Asia-session flush to the 0.8127 week low, and Thursday's NY retest held at 0.8133, leaving a double bottom with a neckline near 0.8185. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) during Friday's NY session lifted price through that neckline to a 0.8220 week high, edging past Tuesday's high at 0.8217, and the post-release dip held the 0.8184 NFP low near the 38.2% fib. Price closed the week above EMA(20) near 0.8191 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 68 and higher lows intact since Thursday.
Support: 0.8191, 0.81841, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.82204, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8220 week high breaks the weekly range and clears Tuesday's high cap
Failure to hold the 0.8184 NFP low and EMA(20) breaks the higher-lows trendline and returns price to the range middle
A return below 0.8133 toward the 0.8127 week low invalidates the double bottom read
Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break above 0.8185 after a triple low at 0.8127–0.8135; higher lows since Thursday.
After Wednesday's Asia-session slide to the week low near 0.8127, USD/CHF held a 0.8127–0.8186 range through Thursday, with three probes of the 0.8127–0.8135 floor holding. Friday's blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) drove a NY-session range break to a 0.8220 week high, and the late-Friday pullback held the 0.8185 range top. Price closed the week near 0.8207, above the ema20 around 0.8195, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and the higher lows trendline from Thursday intact.
Support: 0.8195, 0.8185, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8250
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8185 range top would undercut the breakout and return price to the Wednesday–Thursday range
A sustained hold above the 0.8220 week high opens the path toward the 0.8250 psych level
A loss of the ema20 and the higher lows trendline would point to a deeper retracement of the NFP impulse
Fed speakers Monday and US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read