21:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, corrective pullback from highs · RSI 44 · price 0.82664
HH/HL chain from Aug low; potential double top at 0.8382/0.8395.
USDCHF built a two-month HH/HL advance from the 20 August low at 0.7950. It ran to 0.8395 in mid-October on hot US inflation data, then shed about 1.4% in two sessions as dovish Fed remarks and falling Treasury yields hit the dollar. That reversal broke the rally line from August and left a potential double top at 0.8382/0.8395. Price is now holding just above the 0.8222 neckline, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Oct fib, sitting below a flattening EMA20 and above a still-rising EMA50 near 0.8205.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8172, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8279, 0.8348, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8222 neckline confirms the double top and opens the fib 50% at 0.8172
- A recovery through ema20 at 0.8279 and back into the oct range above 0.8348 would undercut the double top read
- Sept low at 0.8052 is the deeper pivot; a break there ends the HH/HL sequence from August
- US PMIs Fri and next week's FOMC could materially shift this read via yields
- US-Iran deal headlines driving oil and US yields remain the main swing factor for the dollar leg