21:03 UTC
Two-month uptrend stalling, rolling over from highs · RSI 43 · price 0.82346
HH/HL chain from the Aug low; double top 0.8382/0.8395 with price on the 0.8227 neckline.
The uptrend from the 0.7950 Aug low stalled in a double top at 0.8382 (Oct 1) and the 0.8395 Oct high (Oct 14). Last week's ~1.4% drop came as US yields fell and safe-haven demand lifted CHF, pulling price back to the 0.8227 neckline. That level also matches the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct fib. Price has lost EMA(20) and the rising trendline from the Aug low, but still holds above a rising EMA(50) near 0.8200, so the weekly HH/HL sequence is bent, not yet broken.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 swing low and the 50% fib near 0.8172
- A break of the 0.8183 swing low prints a lower low and ends the HH/HL chain from the Aug low
- Recovery above 0.8300 psych weakens the double top read; the 0.8395 Oct high remains the cap above
- US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and the US 10y yield near 5.13% could materially shift this read