Lower highs from 0.8395; Monday higher lows lifting price off the 0.8218 week low.
USD/CHF shed about 177 pips from Wednesday's post-CPI 0.8395 high to Friday's 0.8218 week low as front-end US yields slid with the AI-equity sell-off. Since the 0.8239 weekly open, Monday printed higher lows through London and NY as the 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%, lifting price above EMA(20) into the 0.8270 monday high, which is also Thursday's broken low. RSI(14) sits near 62, and price is wedged between the fib 23.6 at 0.8260 and the fib 38.2 at 0.8286.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high opens the fib 38.2 at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Break of the Monday higher-low trendline and the fib 23.6 at 0.8260 returns focus to the 0.8239 weekly open
Loss of the 0.8218 week low resumes the downtrend from 0.8395
US 10y yield around 5.13% and tech-equity moves remain the main driver; Friday's S&P PMIs (13:45 UTC) are the key scheduled risk
22:02 UTC
Rebound within this week's downtrend · RSI 61 · price 0.8264
Lower highs from 0.8395 intact; Monday higher lows pressing range top at 0.8270.
USD/CHF has given back most of Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 week high, bottoming at the 0.8218 Friday low in the NY session as falling US yields and AI-equity stress weighed on the dollar. Monday's recovery, with the US 10y back near 5.13%, built a double bottom at the 0.8233 Monday low after London open and lifted price through EMA(20) to the 0.8270 Monday high. That high is the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range and sits near the 23.6% fib of the week's decline. RSI(14) near 61 and the rising lows line frame the rebound, while the lower-high sequence from 0.8395 stays intact below the 0.8300 round number.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 38.2% fib near 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.8257 and the rising lows line returns focus to the 0.8233 Monday low
Break of the 0.8218 Friday low resumes the downtrend from the 0.8395 week high
Tuesday's US housing data and Fed-speaker comments, via 10y yields around 5.13%, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 0.8395 peak; Monday printing higher lows.
USD/CHF unwound Wednesday's post-CPI spike to 0.8395, sliding 177 pips to the 0.8218 Fri low in Friday's NY session as US yields fell and safe-haven demand built for CHF. Monday held a tight range above the 0.8239 weekly open through Asia and London. NY then pushed through the 0.8260 Fri high to a 0.8270 Monday high as the 10y Treasury yield rebounded about 7bp to 5.13%. Price now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), which are converging near 0.8255, with RSI(14) near 60, along a line of Monday's higher lows. The rebound has only reached the 23.6% retracement of the CPI high to Fri low decline.
Support: 0.82596, 0.82394, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300, 0.83162
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high puts the 0.8294 38.2% fib and the 0.8300 round number in play
Acceptance above 0.8300 exposes the 0.8316 thu high, the last lower high of the week's decline
A break of Monday's higher lows and the Fri high / EMA(20) zone near 0.8255–0.8260 returns focus to the 0.8239 weekly open
Failure at the weekly open reopens the 0.8218 Fri low and the 0.8227 double-top neckline cited in the CHF digest
Tuesday's US housing starts and permits (12:15–14:00 UTC) and the 10y yield near 5.13% could materially shift this read; Friday's PMIs are the larger risk
Lower highs from 0.8395, higher lows since Friday low.
USD/CHF has unwound most of Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 Wednesday high, sliding through Thursday and into Friday's NY session to a 0.8218 friday low as US yields fell and AI-equity jitters added haven demand for CHF. Monday built higher lows off the 0.8233 monday low and lifted above EMA(20) during NY hours as the 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%, with RSI(14) near 63. Price is now pressing the 0.8270 monday high, the old Thursday low, which sits just below the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday high to Friday low drop at 0.8286.
Support: 0.8255, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Break of the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 0.8255 returns focus to the 0.8233 monday low
Failure to hold the 0.8218 friday low resumes the lower-low sequence from the Wednesday high
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, plus Fed-speaker commentary and the 10y yield near 5.13%, could shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395; Monday higher lows off 0.8233.
USDCHF has unwound most of Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395, sliding about 177 pips through a run of lower highs to Friday's 0.8218 week low during NY hours. Monday held an Asian range above the 0.8233 monday low, then climbed through London and NY as the US 10y yield rebounded toward 5.13%. That move reclaimed the ema20 near 0.8254 and the 23.6% retracement at 0.8260, with RSI(14) near 62. The 0.8270 session high is the first cap, with the friday high at 0.8282 and the 38.2% retracement near 0.8286 above.
Support: 0.8254, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 0.8254 and the 23.6% retracement returns price to Monday's range
Close above the friday high at 0.8282 and the 38.2% retracement opens the 0.8300 round number
Break of Monday's higher lows and the 0.8233 monday low re-exposes the 0.8218 week low
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC and US 10y yield moves around 5.13% could shift this read
Lower highs and lows from 0.8395 to 0.8218; Monday printing higher lows into the 23.6% retracement.
The week's dominant move was the reversal from Wednesday's post-CPI spike to 0.8395, unwinding through Thursday and Friday's London-NY sessions to a week low at 0.8218 as US yields dropped and haven demand built for CHF. Monday held the 0.8239 weekly open area in Asia and climbed through London and NY on a higher-low sequence as the US 10y rebounded to 5.13%, with price now above the EMA(20) near 0.8252. The push stalled at the 0.8270 Monday high, which sits just above the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8395-0.8218 drop and the EMA(50) around 0.8260. RSI(14) near 59 shows a recovery without extension.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high opens the Fri Asia high at 0.8282, then the 0.8300 round number flagged as resistance
Loss of the Monday higher-lows trendline and the EMA(20) at 0.8252 puts the 0.8239 weekly open back in focus
Break of the 0.8218 week low resumes the downtrend sequence through the 0.8227 neckline area
US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC and the US 10y yield around 5.13% could shift this read; Friday PMIs are the week's main risk
USD/CHF reversed Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 with a ~175-pip slide into Friday's 0.8218 week low as US yields and Fed hike odds dropped. Monday has printed rising lows from the 0.8233 Monday low in Asia. The NY session then broke the session range to tag the 0.8270 session high, at the 23.6% level of the week drop fib, as the 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. Price holds above the EMA(20) near 0.8252, with RSI(14) at 58 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 psych level
A break of the rising lows line and the ema20 near 0.8252 returns focus to the 0.8233 Monday low
Failure to hold the 0.8218 week low resumes the lower-low sequence of the downtrend
US 10y around 5.13%, Fed-speaker commentary and Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's high, Monday rebound testing it · RSI 65 · price 0.82682
Lower highs and lows Wed–Fri; Monday higher lows, break of Friday high.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 was fully unwound into Friday's NY low at 0.8218 as Fed hike odds faded and Treasury yields fell, leaving a sequence of lower highs through Thursday and Friday. Monday built higher lows above the 0.8233 Monday low through Asia and London. The NY session then lifted price through the 0.8260 Friday high and back above EMA(20) near 0.8250, despite a soft NAHB print, with RSI(14) near 65. The 38.2% fib of the week's drop at 0.8286 sits just above the 0.8282 prior high, the next area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8250, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8260 Friday high and the 0.8250 EMA(20) would turn Monday's break into a false break
Close above the 0.8282 prior high and the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 opens the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8316 Thursday NY high (thu high)
Failure to hold the 0.8233 Monday low exposes the 0.8218 week low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Building Permits and any Fed speaker shift in October hike odds could materially move this read
Lower highs from 0.8395, now a tight 0.8233–0.8260 Monday range with rising lows.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 fully reversed as dovish Fed commentary and falling Treasury yields stripped out hike odds. The pair carved lower highs, including a Thursday high at 0.8316, into a Friday NY low at 0.8218. Monday has held a 0.8233–0.8260 range, with the monday low intact and rising intraday lows lifting price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The session high at 0.8260, which matches Friday's rebound high and the 23.6% retracement of the CPI-to-Friday-low fib, has capped two NY-hours attempts. RSI(14) is near 61, and today's NAHB miss has done little to shift the tape.
Support: 0.8247, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8278, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8260 session high exposes the 0.8278 prior low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8286.
Slip back below ema20 at 0.8247 and the 0.8233 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and returns focus to the 0.8218 friday low.
Break under the 0.8218 friday low resumes the downtrend sequence from the 0.8395 high.
Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC US housing data and Fed speaker tone could shift hike pricing and this read.
USD/CHF has unwound Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 through a run of lower highs into Friday, with dovish Fed repricing outweighing hot PPI and retail data, and Friday's NY session set the week low at 0.8218. Since the weekly open at 0.8239, the pair has held a tight 0.8233–0.8255 band, with higher lows off the week low. Price is back above EMA(20) but below EMA(50) near 0.8259, which sits with the fri high at 0.8260, and RSI(14) around 53 reflects a stall rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 0.82394, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82549, 0.82596, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8260 fri high, also EMA(50) and the 23.6% retracement of the Wed–Fri drop, breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Repeated rejection at the 0.8255 day high keeps the Monday range intact
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8239, then the 0.8233 monday low, breaks the higher lows and puts the 0.8218 week low back in focus
US housing data and ADP average on Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, plus Fed speaker tone ahead of next week's FOMC, could materially shift this read
The pair has shed about 177 pips from Wednesday's 0.8395 post-CPI high. Thursday's PPI spike was rejected at 0.8316, and Friday's London leg extended to a 0.8218 week low as firm Fed hold pricing and softer yields outweighed the hot US data. Since Friday's NY session price has based in a 0.8218–0.8260 band, and Monday's Asian and London sessions held a 0.8233–0.8254 range between the monday low and monday high. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.8247 with RSI(14) back near 53, while the friday high at 0.8260 lines up with the 23.6% fib and EMA(50).
Support: 0.82466, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82538, 0.82596, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high at 0.8260 (23.6% fib, EMA50) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8300 round number, prior support now resistance
Failure to hold the monday low at 0.8233 and the rising lows line reopens the 0.8218 week low and the 0.8227 double-top neckline area
Tue US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC; any hawkish Fed repricing off ~84% hold odds could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395; tight Monday range 0.8233–0.8253 above 0.8218 low.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed in late NY hours, and dovish Fed commentary drove a run of lower highs into Friday's 0.8218 week low during NY hours. Since Monday's open the pair has held a 20-pip range between the 0.8233 monday low and 0.8253 monday high, with price pressing the top of it. Price sits above EMA(20) at 0.8244 but below EMA(50). The friday high at 0.8260 lines up with the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395 drop and caps the recovery.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8260 friday high / 23.6% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8282 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8233 monday low and EMA(20) reopens the 0.8218 week low and the 0.8220–0.8227 double-top neckline area
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC, plus Fed speaker tone on October hike pricing (~84% hold), could shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight base · RSI 49 · price 0.8245
Lower highs from the 0.8395 spike; Monday compressing above Friday's low.
The hot US CPI spike to 0.8395 in Wednesday's NY session fully reversed. Dovish Fed commentary drove a ~215-pip slide through Thursday's hot PPI to the 0.8218 Friday low, and Friday's NY bounce stalled at the fib 23.6% near 0.8260. Monday's Asia and London sessions are compressing between the 0.8233 Monday low and the 0.8252 Monday high. Price is pinned to a flattening EMA(20), RSI(14) sits near 49, and the rising lows and lower highs since Friday are converging.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8233 Monday low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 0.8218 Friday low, just under the 0.8220-0.8227 double-top neckline
H1 close above the 0.8252 Monday high clears the lower highs line; acceptance above the fib 23.6% at 0.8260 opens the 0.8282 Friday high
Fed speaker tone and any drift in October hold pricing (~84%) could break the compression
Tuesday's US housing and ADP data during NY hours are the next scheduled catalysts
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a tight range · RSI 42 · price 0.82354
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395; Monday Asian range compression above week low.
Wednesday's CPI-driven spike to 0.8395 reversed on dovish Fed remarks and softer Treasury yields. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, with Friday's NY session setting the week low at 0.8218. Monday's Asian range has compressed between the asian low at 0.8233 and the asian high at 0.8252, with Monday highs edging lower and price slipping back below the weekly open and EMA(20); RSI(14) near 42 holds below midline without reaching oversold.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82394, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.8220s double-top neckline in play
Reclaim of the 0.8260 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8395–0.8218 decline near 0.8286
Break of the asian high at 0.8252 ends the Monday highs compression
No scheduled US or Swiss data today; unscheduled Fed commentary or a US yield move could shift this read
Tue US housing starts, permits and ADP 4-week average could materially shift the read
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395; tight Asian range just under EMA20.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 0.8330 to the 0.8395 week high in the NY session. The move fully reversed as Treasury yields eased and dovish Fed remarks landed, carving lower highs and lower lows through Thursday and Friday down to the 0.8218 week low in Friday's NY session; the Friday high at 0.8260 capped the rebound. Monday's Asia session opened flat and is compressing in a 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range, between the Asian low and Asian high, just below EMA(20) near 0.8245, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82596, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the sequence from 0.8395
H1 close above the 0.8260 Friday high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8286 38.2% retracement and the 0.8300 round number above
A break of the Asian range, either above the Asian high at 0.8252 or below the Asian low at 0.8233, sets the first directional cue of the week
Tue US housing data and ADP from 12:15 UTC could shift USD tone, though recent hot US prints have been faded
Lower highs since Wednesday's spike; tight Asian range at weekly open.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since rejecting 0.8395 after Wednesday's hot CPI spike. Dovish Fed remarks and falling Treasury yields drove the slide through Thursday Asia and Friday's London session to a 0.8218 week low. Friday's NY rebound stalled at 0.8260, the fib 23.6 of the week's drop. Monday's Asian range of 0.8233–0.8252 is pinned at the weekly open and just under EMA(20), pressing the lower-highs trendline from Thursday, with RSI(14) flat near 46.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8252 asia high clears the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.8260 fib 23.6 and the 0.8282 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8233 asia low reopens the 0.8218 week low, with the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the CHF digest just above it
Weekend Hormuz/Iran headlines and any US yield rebound into the London open could break the Asian range; US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC is the first scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395, tight Asian coil below EMA(20).
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed on dovish Fed remarks and falling US yields. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, with the heaviest selling in Thursday's Asia session and Friday's London session, down to a 0.8218 week low. Friday's NY bounce stalled at 0.8260, the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395–0.8218 drop. Monday's Asia session is coiling around the weekly open at 0.8239, just below EMA(20) at 0.8247. RSI(14) near 45 made a higher low on Friday's lower price low, a modest bullish divergence.
Support: 0.82394, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82466, 0.82598, 0.8267
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the Asian low at 0.8233 puts the 0.8218 week low back in play. A break there extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.8227 neckline area.
Hold above EMA(20) and a close through the 0.8260 23.6% fib would break the lower-high sequence and expose EMA(50) near 0.8267.
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the open: escalation is a haven-USD and oil-inflation impulse that could lift the pair off the weekly open.
Tue US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the yield-driven read.
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak; tight 0.8218–0.8260 range since Friday NY.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed into a 177-pip decline. Thursday's Asia session and Friday's London open drove most of it as falling US yields and risk aversion outweighed hot US data. Friday's NY probe to a 0.8218 week low briefly undercut the 0.8227 double-top neckline but did not extend. The bounce then stalled at 0.8260, which is both the 23.6% fib and the latest lower high on the descending trendline. Monday's Asia session is trading just under EMA(20) near 0.8244, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8260, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low confirms the neckline break and extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8233 monday low returns price to the week low
Recovery through the 0.8260 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 0.8300 round number the next reference
Strait of Hormuz headlines at the Asian open could add haven-driven gap risk to CHF
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P Global PMIs could materially shift USD hike pricing and this read