Lower highs from the 0.8395 CPI spike; Friday bounce capped at 0.8260, Monday ranging 0.8233–0.8252.
The week's dominant move was the reversal from Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395. Price fell about 177 pips into Friday's NY-session week low at 0.8218 as US yields slipped and dovish Fed remarks hit the dollar, printing a lower-high sequence along the way. Friday's NY bounce met rejection at 0.8260, the friday high and 23.6% retrace, and the pair closed at 0.8239. Monday's Asian range of 0.8233–0.8252 sits just under EMA(20) near 0.8248, with RSI(14) flat at 46.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8248 ema20 and the 0.8260 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.8282 lower high is next
Loss of the 0.8233 monday low exposes the 0.8218 week low; a break there extends lower lows toward the 0.8200 round number
Monday-open reaction to the Hormuz vessel attacks could trigger haven flows in both USD and CHF
US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC; the move needs a yield response to shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed during NY hours. The heaviest selling came in Thursday's Asia session and again into Friday's London session as US yields pulled back. Friday's bounce stalled at the friday high of 0.8260, the 23.6% level of the 0.8395–0.8218 fib, and the new week has opened back below the weekly open at 0.8239, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43, leaving the friday base at 0.8223 and the 0.8218 week low as nearest support.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 round number
Reclaim of the weekly open at 0.8239 and the monday high at 0.8252 puts the 0.8260 friday high back in focus; a close above it breaks the lower-high sequence
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC and any Fed commentary on December hike odds could materially shift this read