21:03 UTC
Downtrend, testing double-top neckline · RSI 33 · price 0.82391
Lower highs since 0.8395; neckline at 0.8227 probed, no H4 close below.
The 0.8382/0.8395 highs have formed a double top. Dovish Fed remarks and falling US yields drove a ~170-pip slide from 0.8395 despite hot PPI, leaving a lower high at 0.8350 and a breakdown through the 0.8265 shelf. Price has probed the 0.8227 neckline twice, with a swing low at 0.8218, but H4 closes are holding above it. Price sits below both EMAs, EMA20 has rolled under EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to ~30 pips from high-teens in the prior 0.8300–0.8346 range.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8265, 0.8300, 0.8350
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the window low at 0.8183
- Recovery above the 0.8265 breakdown and the 0.8300 round number (near the 38.2–50% fib of the 0.8395 drop) would undercut the double-top read
- A push back through the 0.8350 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence
- US housing data Tue and S&P Global PMIs Fri could shift US yields and materially move this read
- Unscheduled Fed commentary on December-hike odds remains the main yield driver for the pair