Double top 0.8382/0.8395, lower highs into the 0.8227 neckline.
The rejection at 0.8395 completed a double top with the late-September 0.8382 peak. The roughly 175-pip flush has carried price back onto the 0.8227 neckline, with a fresh swing low at 0.8218 but no H4 close below it yet. The drop tracked the USD reversal as dovish Fed remarks and falling Treasury yields overrode hot PPI. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 30 pips reflects an expanding range rather than compression.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8316, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 window low
Reclaiming the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8316 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
A return toward the 0.8395 double top would negate the reversal read
Unscheduled Fed commentary and US yield moves remain the main driver into the weekend
US S&P Global PMIs Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.8382/0.8395, lower highs into neckline.
Two failed pushes at 0.8382 and the 0.8395 second top have formed a double top. The slide since has printed a clean run of lower highs back to the 0.8227 neckline, which was pierced intrabar but not closed below. The reversal followed dovish Fed remarks and falling US yields, which overrode hot CPI and PPI prints. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 now crossed under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 30 pips has expanded from a roughly 20-pip regime during the mid-window range.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 window low
Recovery through the lower-highs line and back above the 0.8300 psych level would neutralise the double-top read
Rejection at the 0.8300 psych level would keep the lower-highs sequence intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could jolt the pair at the neckline
Weekend IMF/Fed rhetoric and yield moves could shift the read; a retake of the 0.8395 second top voids the pattern
Double top at 0.8382/0.8395, price pressing the 0.8227 neckline.
The spike to 0.8395 on the hot US CPI print failed just above the late-September 0.8382 high. That forms a double top, and the reversal has run straight back to the 0.8227 neckline as dovish Fed comments and falling UST yields weighed on USD. Lower highs since the peak have taken price below both EMAs, with EMA20 rolling under EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 28 pips as the leg extends, and RSI near 33 is soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8336, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number (near the 38.2% fib and EMA20) would mark the CHF bounce as fading
Lower-highs trendline from 0.8395 caps the decline; the 61.8% fib at 0.8336 is the deeper retracement marker
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read, especially via a move in yields
Recovery through the 0.8395 double top high would invalidate the reversal structure
05:02 UTC
Short-term downtrend after failed push to 0.8395 · RSI 37 · price 0.82657
Lower highs from 0.8395, range floor near 0.8300 lost.
The 0.8382/0.8395 highs form a potential double top over the 0.8227 neckline. The spike to the 0.8395 cycle high after the hot US CPI reversed as Treasury yields slid, and the pair fell through the 0.8300 range floor to a fresh swing low at 0.8261. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50, which are converging, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 26 pips, with the rising-lows line from the 0.8183 window low now broken.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8328, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 window low
Recovery back above the 0.8300 range floor returns price to the prior multi-day range
Lower-highs line from 0.8395 caps the rebound; a close above the 50% fib at 0.8328 weakens the double-top read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and the direction of Treasury yields could materially shift this read
False break above range high, lower low at week low, neckline untested.
The CPI-driven push through the 0.8348 range high to the 0.8395 spike high failed within two bars. The reversal has erased the whole multi-day advance, as falling Treasury yields and AI-related risk aversion lifted CHF despite hot US PPI and retail sales. Price now sits below both EMAs and the rising higher-low line from the 0.8183 window low, pinned just above the 0.8261 week low, with a double top forming against the 0.8227 neckline. ATR(14) has expanded to about 26 pips from sub-10-pip bars before the spike, so the move is extending rather than compressing.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8348, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8183 window low
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the neckline
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number and the 50% fib near 0.8328 would neutralise the reversal read
Recovery above the 0.8348 range high would reopen the 0.8395 spike high
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields