Lower highs off NY high, price near 50% retracement.
London broke below the 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range on softer US yields. The NY open extended the slide to the 0.8218 ny low with a brief close under the 0.8227 neckline, a false break that snapped back to the 0.8260 ny high as the dollar steadied. Since then lower highs have pressed price back to the 50% retracement near the 0.8236 late low in thin pre-weekend trade, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8236 late low exposes the 0.8227 neckline
Renewed close below the neckline and the 0.8218 ny low revives the double-top break
Close above the lower highs line near 0.8246 and the 0.8260 ny high reopens the 0.8282 asia high
IMF meetings Oct 17–18 and weekend risk headlines could gap the open
Post-London range 0.8218–0.8260, lower highs off the NY high.
London broke below the Asian range, retreating from the 0.8282 Asian high. NY then briefly broke the 0.8227 neckline to a 0.8218 day low before recovering to the 0.8260 NY high as US yields steadied. Late NY is fading under a line of lower highs into the 50% retrace near the 0.8236 session low, with RSI(14) at 41 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8236 session low exposes the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8218 day low
A second close below the 0.8227 neckline would turn the earlier false break into a confirmed break
An M15 close back above the 0.8246 lower highs line reopens the 0.8260 NY high
Weekend IMF headlines and US yield moves carry Monday gap risk around the 0.8227 neckline
Lower highs off 0.8260 rebound high after false break of 0.8227.
London open broke below the Asian range (asian high 0.8282) on the yield-driven CHF bid, and NY extended to a 0.8218 session low. That dip was a brief false break of the 0.8227 neckline before a bounce to the 0.8260 rebound high. Since then lower highs along the fade line have pushed price back under the ema20 to 0.8238, just past half the bounce with fib 61.8 at 0.8234 next.
Support: 0.82339, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8243, 0.82596, 0.82822
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 session low turns the false break into a confirmed lower low, with 0.8189 below
Break of the fade line and a close above the 0.8260 rebound high ends the lower-high sequence; asian high 0.8282 sits above
Holding fib 61.8 at 0.8234 keeps the bounce structure intact
IMF meetings Oct 17–18 plus unscheduled Fed-speak or risk-off headlines carry gap risk into the reopen
20:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 36 · price 0.82376
Early NY hours pushed through the 0.8227 neckline to a ny low of 0.8218. The break failed and price rebounded to a ny high at 0.8260. Since 16:30 UTC a lower-high sequence has dragged price back past the 50% fib (~0.8239) into the thin Friday close, with CHF demand on softer US yields still the backdrop and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8227 neckline re-exposes the ny low at 0.8218 and turns the false break into a confirmed break
Reclaim of the 0.8250 midday high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.8260 ny high
Weekend IMF headlines (Oct 17–18) and thin weekly-close liquidity could gap the Monday open
Lower high at 0.8260 under 0.8282 Asian high; false break of 0.8227 reclaimed.
Asia topped at 0.8282 before London sold off on softer US yields and a CHF bid. NY pierced the 0.8227 neckline to a 0.8218 session low, then a false break reclaim ran to 0.8260 (NY high). Late NY has faded to the 50% fib of that rebound near 0.8238, with lower highs under a 0.8246 minor cap and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8227 neckline reopens the 0.8218 session low
Reclaim of the 0.8246 minor cap puts the 0.8260 NY high back in play
Weekly close in ~1.5h and weekend IMF headlines carry gap risk for the open
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalled, flat into Friday close · RSI 49 · price 0.82423
False break below 0.8227, NY rebound capped at 0.8260, tight late-session range.
The London slide on softer US yields and a CHF haven bid briefly took out the 0.8227 neckline in early NY, printing a day low at 0.8218 before price reclaimed it. The rebound stalled at the 0.8260 NY high, just under the Asian range floor, and price is now compressing at 0.8239–0.8247 between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY swing fib, flat on ema20 with RSI near 49.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8239 late low exposes the neckline at 0.8227; failure there reopens the day low at 0.8218
Break of the ldn-ny high at 0.8251, then the ny high at 0.8260, reclaims the Asian range and opens the asian high at 0.8282
Thin Friday-close liquidity; weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak on hike pricing could gap the open
Asian range broken lower; NY rebound capped at 0.8260, higher low at 0.8240.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.8261, and NY extended to a 0.8218 session low through the 0.8227 neckline as softer US yields kept CHF bid. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8260 NY high, just under the old Asian low. Late NY, price is consolidating at 0.8241 on the pullback low and rising support, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8240 pullback low breaks rising support and exposes the 0.8223 neckline, then the 0.8218 session low
Recovery through the 0.8251 midday high reopens the 0.8260 NY high, where the Asian range low sits overhead
Thin late-Friday liquidity; unscheduled Fed or IMF headlines (meetings Oct 17–18) and US yield moves could shift this read
19:03 UTC
Down-day, NY rebound now retracing · RSI 46 · price 0.82411
0.8218 low held, bounce to 0.8260 fading.
London open broke the 0.8263 asian low. NY then extended to a 0.8218 session low, briefly below the 0.8227 neckline, as lower US yields and a CHF safe-haven bid weighed, before a false break reversed to a 0.8260 swing high. After London close price has drifted back to test the 0.8240 pullback low between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NY bounce, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8234, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8240 pullback low exposes the 0.8234 fib 61.8 and the 0.8218 session low
Recovery through the 0.8251 midday high and 0.8260 swing high puts the 0.8263 asian low back in play
Sustained trade below 0.8227 would turn today's false break into a confirmed breakdown
Thin late-Friday liquidity plus weekend IMF and Fed headlines could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Down-day with late-NY rebound, now stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.82447
Higher low at 0.8218, consolidating 0.8240–0.8260.
London broke below the 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range. NY then dipped to a 0.8218 day low after the US industrial production beat, briefly piercing the 0.8227 neckline before recovering to a 0.8260 session high as the USD steadied late. Late in NY, price is holding the 0.8240 swing low on rising support, near the 38.2% retracement of the rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8240 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 day low
A close back below the 0.8227 neckline turns the earlier false break into confirmation
M15 close above the 0.8260 session high reopens the Asian range toward the 0.8282 asian high
Thin late-Friday liquidity plus weekend IMF/Fed headlines (Oct 17–18) could shift this read at the open
Lower highs from Asia; higher low at 0.8240 after the 0.8218 sweep.
London broke below the 0.8261 Asian range low and the slide carried into NY. Price swept under the 0.8227 neckline to a 0.8218 session low, then rebounded 42 pips to the 0.8260 NY high as the dollar stabilised late on firm industrial production and import prices. Late in NY, price is holding the 38.2% retrace of that rebound near 0.8244, just above the 0.8240 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 and price sitting on the EMA50.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8240 swing low exposes the 0.8218 session low; a break there turns the neckline sweep into a confirmed lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.8260 NY high reopens the 0.8282 Asian high
Thin late-Friday liquidity; unscheduled Fed or IMF headlines over the weekend could reset this read
18:16 UTC
Rebound off NY low, stalling mid-range · RSI 56 · price 0.82446
Failed break of 0.8227 neckline; V-recovery capped below a lower-highs line from the Asia high.
London sold USD/CHF from the 0.8282 Asia high to 0.8223 as softer US yields kept the CHF bid. NY pushed it to a 0.8218 day low with brief closes under the 0.8227 neckline, but that break failed as the USD steadied late. The rebound stalled at the 0.8260 NY high, below the lower-highs line from the Asia high, and price is holding the 38.2% fib near 0.8244 with RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8240 swing low puts the 61.8% fib near 0.8234 and the 0.8227 neckline back in play
M15 closes back below 0.8227 and the 0.8218 day low would revive the double-top break
Close above the 0.8251 prior swing and 0.8260 NY high clears the lower-highs line, opening the 0.8282 Asia high
Thin Friday close: unscheduled Fed or IMF headlines over the weekend could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound off lows · RSI 57 · price 0.82469
False break of 0.8227 neckline, recovery capped at 0.8260.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.8261 and the first hour of NY extended the slide to a 0.8218 day low on softer yields, briefly piercing the 0.8227 neckline. The NY rebound then ran 42 pips into a rejection at the 0.8260 NY high. Late-NY pullback is holding the 38.2% fib at 0.8243 just below the 0.8251 midday high, RSI(14) near 57, price marginally above both EMAs.
Support: 0.8243, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8243 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 day low
A close back under the 0.8227 neckline turns the false break into a confirmed break
Close above 0.8251 midday high and 0.8260 NY high reopens the Asian range toward the 0.8282 asian high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin pre-weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves
Lower highs from Asia; higher low after 0.8218 false break, capped at 0.8260.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 0.8218 session low. That was a false break under the 0.8227 neckline, with softer US yields keeping CHF bid into the drop. The late-NY rebound met rejection at the 0.8260 rally high, and price is back under the 0.8251 pre-NY high with RSI(14) cooling near 62.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8240 swing low, near the 50% of the rebound fib, reopens the 0.8227 neckline
M15 close below the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8218 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Close above the 0.8260 rally high exposes the 0.8282 Asian high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF headlines into a thinning late-NY tape
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound testing it · RSI 64 · price 0.82544
V-recovery from 0.8218, HH/HL chain since NY low.
London broke below the Asian range on the yields-driven CHF bid, and NY extended the drop to the 0.8218 NY low. That move was a false break of the 0.8227 neckline and reversed into a steady HH/HL rally along the ny rally line. Late in NY, price holds above the 0.8251 prior high but is stalling at the 0.8260 NY high, at the 61.8% of the day decline fib; RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 0.8251, 0.8240, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8260 NY high clears the 61.8% day decline fib and opens the 0.8282 Asian high.
A close back below the 0.8251 prior high puts the 0.8240 swing low in focus.
A break of the ny rally line and the 0.8240 swing low exposes the 0.8218 NY low and the 0.8227 neckline.
The calendar is thin into the weekend. The 18:00 UTC US Budget Statement, Fed headlines and yield moves are the main swing risks.
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend reversed, rebound in late NY · RSI 64 · price 0.82544
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.8218 NY low, retesting the Asian range floor from below.
London broke the 0.8261 Asian low and NY extended the yields-driven CHF bid to 0.8218, briefly through the 0.8227 neckline. That move became a false break: price has rebounded about 40 pips in higher-high, higher-low steps and is retesting the 0.8260 Asian low from below late in NY, with RSI(14) near 64 and the 0.8251 London high just beneath.
Support: 0.8251, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8260 asian low reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 0.8282 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8251 london high and the rebound trendline returns focus to the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 ny low
The 18:00 UTC US budget statement and unscheduled Fed or yield headlines into the weekend could shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 58 · price 0.82484
Lower highs through London; NY false break of 0.8227 then higher lows.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and the slide ran to 0.8223 as softer US yields and AI risk aversion kept USD offered. NY swept to a 0.8218 session low with a brief close under the 0.8227 neckline, then recovered about 30 pips on higher lows to retest the 0.8251 midday high. That retest is near the 50% retracement of the Asia-NY decline.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8251 midday high opens the 0.8261 Asian low
Break of the 0.8240 higher low and the rising NY trendline undercuts the rebound
M15 close back below the 0.8227 neckline revives the downtrend toward the 0.8218 session low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF or Fed headlines could shift the read
Lower highs from 0.8251; NY low 0.8218 undercut then reclaimed.
London broke below the 0.8262–0.8282 Asian range to a 0.8223 London low. The NY open drop pushed to a 0.8218 day low, briefly under the 0.8227 neckline, before a reclaim on soft-yield USD selling. The rebound stalled at a 0.8246 lower high under the 0.8251 prior high, near the 61.8% retrace, with price at EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8251, 0.8262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8251 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8262 Asian low in play
Failure to hold the 0.8223 London low and 0.8227 neckline re-exposes the 0.8218 day low, with 0.8189 below
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF headlines or yield moves could shift this read into the close
Lower highs intact, false break below london low reclaimed.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and pressed USD/CHF to a london low at 0.8223 as softer US yields kept the dollar heavy. NY then printed a session low at 0.8218, a false break of the 0.8227 neckline area that was reclaimed within the hour. The bounce has retraced roughly 80% of the drop from the 0.8251 ny high, stalling at a 0.8246 bounce high with price sitting just under EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8251, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8223 london low and 0.8218 session low confirms the neckline break, exposing 0.8189
Close above the 0.8251 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8261 asian low back in play
Rejection at the 0.8246 bounce high keeps the NY fib retrace capped below 78.6–100%
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin post-London liquidity into the weekend can produce outsized moves
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound testing lower-high line · RSI 51 · price 0.82418
Lower highs from Asia; false break under 0.8227 reclaimed.
London broke the asian low at 0.8261 and the first hour of NY extended the slide to a 0.8218 day low as softer US yields kept USD heavy. That move briefly undercut the 0.8227 neckline before a 27-pip rebound into the falling trendline near 0.8245, which sits just under the 0.8251 swing high, past the 61.8% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8251 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and opens a return to the 0.8261 asian low
Failure back below the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 day low turns the false break into a confirmed lower-low
18:00 UTC Budget Statement and weekend IMF Fed commentary are the remaining event risk into the close
Lower highs from the 0.8251 pre-NY high; NY swept the London low, then reclaimed 0.8227.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended the USD-led slide to 0.8223 as yields eased. The NY open sell-off from the 0.8251 pre-NY high swept that London low to a 0.8218 session low before snapping back above the 0.8227 neckline, a false break so far. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement and the 0.8240 prior pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8240, 0.8251, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8218 session low would cancel the false-break read and resume lower lows toward 0.8189
Holding above the 0.8223 london low keeps a double bottom forming, with the 0.8251 pre-ny high as its neckline
Acceptance above the 0.8240 prior pivot / 61.8% fib opens the 0.8261 asian low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend Fed commentary at the IMF meetings could shift this read into a thin Friday close
Lower highs and lower lows; NY-open dip below London low reversed.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.8262 and set a lower-high, lower-low chain. The NY-open slide took out the London low at 0.8223 to a session low of 0.8218, then reversed back above it. Price now sits at ~0.8233, a half-retrace of the 0.8251 swing high to 0.8218 drop, testing EMA20 from below while softer US yields keep USD heavy.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8238, 0.8251, 0.8262
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london low at 0.8223 turns the dip into a confirmed break, with the 0.8218 session low next
Rejection under fib 61.8 at 0.8238 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Close above the 0.8251 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.8262 asian low into play
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, plus Fed or yield headlines into the weekly close, could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 46 · price 0.82276
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; bouncing off the 0.8218 session low.
London broke the 0.8261 Asian low and NY extended the slide to a 0.8218 session low as softer US yields kept CHF bid. Lower highs at 0.8276 and the 0.8251 NY high mark the sequence. Price is now back on the 0.8227 neckline just under the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8231, 0.8251, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8227 neckline exposes the 0.8218 session low, with 0.8189 below
Recovery through the ema20 and the 50% of the NY drop fib near 0.8234 tests the lower-highs trendline
A close above the 0.8251 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.8261 Asian low back in play
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and any Fed or yield headlines into the weekend could shift this read
LH/LL chain from the Asian high; NY low 0.8218 tested the 0.8227 neckline.
London broke below the Asian range and the session sold off steadily. NY then rolled over from the 0.8251 swing high to a 0.8218 NY low, briefly taking out the 0.8227 neckline as softer US yields kept USD heavy. Price is back near 0.8228, about a third of the way into the NY drop fib and under the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 0.8218 NY low would confirm the neckline break, with 0.8189 the next level below
Reclaiming the 0.8251 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the LH/LL chain; the Asian high at 0.8282 sits above
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, weekend IMF meetings and Fed remarks, plus thin late-Friday liquidity could shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low in NY · RSI 37 · price 0.82193
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; London low broken.
USDCHF broke below the Asian range (0.8261–0.8282) at London open. The first hour of NY then saw a 30-pip drop that took out the London low at 0.8223 and the 0.8227 area, printing a session low at 0.8218 as falling US yields kept USD soft. The lower-high trendline from the 0.8276 pre-London high is intact, and RSI(14) sits near 37, not oversold.
Support: 0.82184, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82234, 0.82509, 0.82612
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.8223 London low keeps the lower-low chain intact; a reclaim above it would mark a false break
Close above the 0.8251 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and stalls the downtrend read
0.8200 round number is the next reference below the session low
Asian low at 0.8261 caps any retrace into the decline fib's upper half
No top-tier data ahead; US yield moves and unscheduled Fed commentary could shift this read
LH/LL chain since London open; NY bounce rejected, price retesting the session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and pressed to a 0.8223 session low, with falling Treasury yields and AI-led risk aversion weighing on USD. The NY bounce was rejected at 0.8251 under the lower-highs trendline. Price is now back on the session low with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.82225, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82509, 0.82612
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8223 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 round number.
A close back above the 0.8251 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens a return toward the Asian low at 0.8261.
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, Fed speak and US yield moves into the weekly close could shift this read.
London broke the Asian range low; NY sold the bounce back to the day low.
London open broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended to a 0.8223 day low. The London-NY transition bounce stalled at the 0.8251 bounce high, near the 50% fib and the falling trendline. NY open sold it back to retest the day low as softer US yields and AI risk-off keep CHF bid, with price sitting in the 0.8227–0.8230 neckline zone and RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.82233, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.82509, 0.82612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8223 day low confirms a lower-low through the neckline, with the 0.8189 dt target the next reference
Recovery above the 0.8251 bounce high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.8261 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Unscheduled Fed speak or a yield rebound into the weekly close could shift this read; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is a minor risk
London broke the Asian range low; NY bounce fully reversed back to the session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended to 0.8223. The NY bounce was rejected at 0.8251 and fully reversed, putting price back on the session low just under the 0.8230 neckline, consistent with the digest's lower-yield, risk-off CHF bid.
Support: 0.82233, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.82509, 0.82607
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8223 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the next level at 0.8189
Reclaim of the 0.8230 neckline and a push through the 0.8251 NY high would break the lower-high trendline
Asian low at 0.8261 is the upper bound of this leg; holding below it keeps the downtrend read
Weekend IMF Fed-speak and US yield moves could materially shift this read; 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low-impact
Asian range broken lower in London; higher lows off 0.8223, capped at 0.8251.
London broke below the 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range and ran to a 0.8223 London low as softer US yields kept the CHF bid. That low held just above the 0.8227 double-top neckline. The bounce stalled at the 0.8251 rebound high near the 50% retrace, and price is pausing at the 0.8244 pause low into the NY open with RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8236, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8261, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8244 pause low and a close below the rising tl near 0.8236 puts the 0.8223 London low and 0.8227 neckline back in play
M15 close above the 0.8251 rebound high opens the path to a retest of the 0.8261 Asian low, with the 0.8282 Asian high above
Unscheduled Fed-speak around the IMF meetings and US yield moves could materially shift this read; the 18:00 UTC budget statement is low impact
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective bounce in NY · RSI 59 · price 0.82476
London lower-low at 0.8223, higher lows since; retesting the breakdown zone.
London open broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended to a 0.8223 session low, just above the 0.8227 double-top neckline, as softer US yields kept USD under pressure. Buyers stepped in there. The NY session has retraced about 27 pips to a 0.8251 NY high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels and up against EMA50. This is a retest of the london shelf breakdown zone from below.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8261, 0.8282
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC, f/c 0.4%) is landing in the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8251 ny high and the 50% fib opens a retest of the asian low at 0.8261; the asian high at 0.8282 is the range top
Loss of the 0.8241 london shelf and the recovery trendline returns focus to the 0.8223 session low
Close below the session low and the 0.8227 neckline extends the London lower-low sequence
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce · RSI 61 · price 0.82484
Lower highs from the Asian range; bounce from 0.8223 now testing the 0.8250 ema50 area.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.8261 and pushed to a 0.8223 session low, just above the 0.8227 double-top neckline in the CHF digest, as softer US yields kept USD offered. The first-hour-of-NY bounce of about 26 pips is now pressing the 0.8250 area, where the ema50 meets the 50% fib of the London drop. RSI(14) is 61.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8230, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8261, 0.8282
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is due on the current bar and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8261 asian low reclaims the broken range and puts the 0.8282 asian high back in view
Rejection at the ema50 / 50% fib near 0.8250 keeps the London downtrend structure intact
A break of the bounce line and the 0.8230 prior low re-exposes the 0.8223 session low and the 0.8227 neckline
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective rebound in play · RSI 56 · price 0.82484
Lower highs from 0.8301; London broke the Asian range low, false break below 0.8227, now retesting 0.8250.
London broke below the Asian range and slid to a 0.8223 session low, briefly dipping under the 0.8227 neckline, as softer US yields kept USD heavy. The 26-pip rebound through the London-NY transition is now pressing 0.8250, where the ema50 meets the 50% level of the drop fib. RSI(14) sits at 56, short of overbought.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8262, 0.8282
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8250 ema50 opens the 0.8262 london high, with the 0.8282 asian high above
Rejection at 0.8250 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the rebound line and the 0.8236 pullback low returns focus to the 0.8223 session low and 0.8227 neckline
London lower-high sequence, early higher lows off 0.8223.
The London drop broke the 0.8262 Asian low and printed lower highs down to a 0.8223 session low, briefly under the 0.8227 neckline as falling US yields and AI-led risk aversion kept USD soft. Price has reclaimed the neckline on a short run of higher lows and is pressing the 0.8242 lower high into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8242, 0.8250, 0.8262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8242 lower high breaks the London sequence, and the fib 50% retracement of the London drop sits at 0.8250
0.8262 Asian low is now overhead resistance and caps the retracement read
A return below the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8223 session low turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Loss of the higher lows line off 0.8223 signals the bounce failing
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off the lows · RSI 46 · price 0.82384
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs into an 0.8223 session low, now a corrective bounce.
London opened with a break below the 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range as softer US yields and AI-led risk-off kept USD heavy. The London leg ran to a 0.8223 session low, briefly probing the 0.8227 neckline, then held a tight 0.8225–0.8231 base. A late-London bounce is now pressing the 0.8241 bounce high, with RSI(14) back near 46.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8241, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8241 bounce high puts the 38.2% retrace of the London leg (~0.8243) and the 0.8261 Asian low in play
M15 closes below the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8223 session low would extend the lower-low sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands in the London-NY transition and could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows through London; tight base at 0.8223–0.8232.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and pressed to a 0.8223 session low, briefly closing under the 0.8227 neckline as falling US yields and AI-led risk-off kept USD heavy. Price is compressing just above the session low, under EMA20 (~0.8238), with the 0.8242 lower high capping into the NY open.
Support: 0.8227, 0.82234
Resistance: 0.82419, 0.82612
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands near the NY open and could materially shift this read
Sustained M15 closes below the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8223 session low extend the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.8242 lower high opens the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian-high decline (0.8246–0.8253), with the Asian low at 0.8261 above
Lower-high/lower-low chain since London open, now a tight base above 0.8223.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.8263 as softer US yields kept USD heavy. The slide reached a 0.8223 session low, briefly closing under the 0.8227 neckline, and price has since held a 0.8225–0.8232 band into the London-NY transition. It sits just below the ema20 at 0.8237, which lines up with the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 38 and off its lows.
Support: 0.8227, 0.82234
Resistance: 0.8237, 0.82419, 0.82634
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8223 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8242 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the down-chain, putting the 0.8263 Asian low back in view
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since London broke the Asian range low; price stalled on the 0.8227 neckline.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.8261. The sell-off extended to a 0.8223 session low as falling US yields and risk aversion kept CHF bid. Price is now basing on the 0.8227 neckline with RSI(14) near 34, and the 0.8231 bounce high and 0.8242 lower high are capping the recovery.
Support: 0.8227, 0.82234, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.82314, 0.82419, 0.8261
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8223 session low confirms a neckline break and opens 0.8189 next support
A reclaim of the 0.8242 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the sell-off fib 50% near 0.8250 in view
A return above the 0.8261 asian low negates the breakdown
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke below the Asian range.
London opened with a break below the 0.8261 Asian low and has stepped down in a lower-high chain to a 0.8223 session low. CHF is bid as UST yields slide on AI-led risk-off. Price is now stalling just above the 0.8227/0.8220 double-top neckline, with RSI(14) near 35 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.82234, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.82381, 0.82606
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8238 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.8261 asian low negates the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.8223 session low and 0.8220 neckline extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8189
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 33 · price 0.82296
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain into session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and has printed a steady chain of lower highs since, with soft USD on falling yields and AI-led risk-off feeding CHF demand. Price is pausing just above the 0.8223 session low, next to the 0.8227/0.8220 neckline zone. RSI(14) near 33 is not yet extreme, and the minor high at 0.8231 is capping the bounce.
Support: 0.82234, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.82308, 0.82419, 0.82612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8220 neckline extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.8242 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.8261 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read into NY open
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and stepped down through a lower-high chain to a 0.8223 session low, as soft USD on lower yields and CHF haven demand persist. Price is stalling just above the 0.8220 neckline. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.82234, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.82419, 0.82612
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8220 neckline extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.8242 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.8261 Asian low would mark the London breakdown as failed
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high/lower-low chain into the neckline.
London open broke the Asian range low at 0.8261 and extended a lower-high sequence to a 0.8225 session low as USD weakness from falling Treasury yields carried over. Price is now sitting on the 0.8227/0.8220 neckline zone, with RSI(14) near 27, soft but not at an extreme.
Support: 0.82249, 0.8222, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.8242, 0.8261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8220 neckline opens the next level at 0.8189
Recovery above the 0.8230 prior low, then the 0.8242 lower high, breaks the London lower-high chain
A return inside the Asian range above the 0.8261 Asian low invalidates the range-break read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
LH/LL chain below the broken Asian range, testing new day low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 and has since stepped down along a lower-high trendline. Price made a fresh day low at 0.8229 as softer UST yields kept USD offered. RSI(14) is near 27, and price is now pressing the 0.8227/0.8220 neckline area left by Thursday's reversal.
Support: 0.82292, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.82419, 0.82524, 0.82612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8242 lower high breaks the LH chain and the lower-high trendline, exposing the fib 50% at 0.8252
Sustained trade below the 0.8220 neckline extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8189
A reclaim of the 0.8261 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during NY hours could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 0.82377
Asian range broken lower at London open, LL/LH chain intact.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and pressed to a 0.8230 London low. Each bounce since has formed a lower high, in line with a softer USD after Warsh's non-committal remarks and lower Treasury yields. RSI(14) near 31, and price is holding just above the low mid-London.
Support: 0.8230, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8242, 0.8254, 0.8261
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8230 London low exposes the 0.8220 neckline area
M15 close above the 0.8242 lower high, then the trendline near the 0.8254 swing high, breaks the lower-high chain
A rebound into the 0.8261 Asian low would retest the breakdown point; the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian high-to-London low drop sits at 0.8250–0.8256
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 33 · price 0.82413
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended Thursday's post-data slide to a session low at 0.8230, just above the 0.8227 neckline, with lower highs stepping down from the 0.8276 swing high. Lower Treasury yields and the dovish read of Warsh keep USD heavy. Price is basing near 0.8241, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.82302, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82541, 0.82612, 0.82756
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8230 session low into the 0.8227 neckline extends the lower-low chain
A recovery above the 0.8254 lower high, near the 50% fib of the London drop, would stall the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 0.8261 Asian low, then the 0.8276 swing high, negates the Asian range break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) during NY hours could reprice the move
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending in London · RSI 21 · price 0.82346
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8261 at the open and has stepped down through a chain of lower highs. The latest session low is 0.8230, with RSI(14) near 21, as Thursday's yield-driven USD slide extends. The 0.8227 double-top neckline flagged in the macro read sits just below, and the broken low at 0.8241 is now overhead.
Support: 0.82302, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8241, 0.82489, 0.82606
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8227 neckline extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8249 lower high breaks the intraday down-sequence; above that, the Asian low at 0.8261 is the next test
Reclaim of the 0.8241 broken low would mark the first stall in the London leg
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, with import prices, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs pressing a flat 0.8241 floor.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and drove the pair to a 0.8241 session low, extending the post-PPI slide as CHF holds a haven bid on falling US yields and AI-led risk-off. Since then the session low has held three times, while lower highs from 0.8254 compress price into it, and RSI(14) near 27 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8261, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8241 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 double-top neckline
Close above the 0.8254 lower high breaks the descending trendline and eases the compression
Recovery back above the 0.8261 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break, with the Asian high at 0.8282 the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read during NY hours
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs over a flat 0.8241 floor.
London open broke the Asian range low at 0.8261 with a 19-pip bar as falling US yields kept USD heavy. Price has since tested the 0.8241 session low three times, while rebounds fade at lower highs under the 0.8254 London high, the 38.2% retrace of the London leg.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8261, 0.8282
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8241 session low exposes the 0.8227 neckline
Reclaim of the 0.8261 Asian low puts price back inside the 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range and invalidates the break
Break above the lower-highs line and the 0.8254 London high ends the micro downtrend
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended after London break · RSI 29 · price 0.82474
Lower highs from the Asian high, Asian range broken lower, compressing near the session low.
Early London broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended to a 0.8241 session low, with falling US yields keeping the USD heavy. Lower highs are intact from the 0.8282 Asian high. Price is now compressing between the session low and the 0.8254 pullback high, RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.82409, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82541, 0.82612, 0.82822
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8241 session low exposes the 0.8227 double-top neckline
A reclaim of the 0.8261 Asian low back into the Asian range weakens the lower-highs read
A move above the 0.8254 pullback high puts the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the Asian high, near 0.8257, in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; a soft print adds pressure toward the neckline
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into London · RSI 29 · price 0.82489
Lower highs; Asian range broken to downside.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and extended to a 0.8241 london low, in line with the softer US-yield, risk-off USD tone. Highs have stepped lower under the trendline from 0.8301 since yesterday's post-data spike. RSI(14) sits near 29 as price stalls below the 0.8254 bounce high.
Support: 0.82409, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82541, 0.82612, 0.82822
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8241 london low exposes the 0.8227 double-top neckline
M15 closes back above the 0.8261 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
A break of the lower-high trendline (near 0.8272) or the 0.8282 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended after London open · RSI 29 · price 0.82489
Lower highs since Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
London open broke below the Asian low at 0.8261 with a 19-pip leg to a 0.8241 session low. The move extends Thursday's yield-driven USD slide, with RSI(14) near 29. Lower highs since the Asian high at 0.8282 keep the descending trendline intact, and a retest of the session low at 0.8242 has held so far.
Support: 0.82409, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82612, 0.82822
What it said to watch
A return above the 0.8261 Asian low would put the range break at risk of a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8241 session low exposes the 0.8227 double-top neckline
A reclaim of the 0.8282 Asian high would invalidate the lower-high trendline read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range; series of lower highs under a descending trendline.
Early London broke the Asian low at 0.8261 and pushed down to a 0.8241 London low. Highs at 0.8301, the 0.8282 Asian high and the 0.8276 swing high all line up on a descending trendline, with softer US yields weighing on USD. RSI(14) is near 24 after the drop, and the 0.8227 double-top neckline sits about 20 pips below.
Support: 0.82409, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82612, 0.82756, 0.82822
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8241 london low exposes the 0.8227 neckline
A reclaim of the 0.8261 asian low, which is also the 50% fib of the drop, would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 0.8276 swing high invalidates the lower-high read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows at London open · RSI 31 · price 0.8259
Lower highs since the Asian high, Asian range low broken.
London open pushed through the Asian low at 0.8261 to a new session low at 0.8257, extending a lower-high chain from the 0.8282 Asian high to the 0.8276 lower high after Warsh's remarks. USD stays heavy on falling Treasury yields and AI-driven risk-off. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8261, 0.8276, 0.8282
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8261 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 0.8276 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
0.8250 round number is the next test below the session low
The 0.8227 dt neckline is the broader confirmation level cited in the macro read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.82598
Lower-high chain from 0.8282 Asian high; pressing below overnight low at London open.
Asia printed lower highs from the 0.8282 Asian high. Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks knocked price to 0.8263, and the 05:15 UTC breakdown below 0.8265 has London opening at a fresh session low of 0.8260 as softer yields weigh on USD. RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.82596, 0.8250, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82652, 0.82756, 0.82822
What it said to watch
Holding under the 0.8261 overnight low keeps the lower-low sequence intact; the 0.8250 round number is next below
M15 close back above the 0.8265 breakdown pivot points to a false break of the Asian range low
Close above the descending trendline near 0.8274 (05:00 UTC lower high at 0.8276) breaks the lower-high chain
0.8227 double-top neckline sits about 33 pips below, the level the CHF digest flags for follow-through
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read during NY hours
LH/LL chain from the 0.8316 spike, Asian range low broken at London open.
London open pushed the pair below the Asian low at 0.8264 and Thursday's 0.8261 thu low. That extends the lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.8316 PPI spike, which faded as falling yields kept USD heavy. RSI(14) at 32 is soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8276
What it said to watch
A return above the 0.8264 asian low would turn the break into a false break back inside the Asian range
An M15 close above the 0.8276 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL sequence
Holding below the thu low leaves the 0.8227 neckline as the next marked level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Post-PPI downleg, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 0.82715
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 0.8263–0.8282 Asian range.
USDCHF slid from the post-PPI NY spike at 0.8316 to an overnight low at 0.8261 as falling Treasury yields outweighed the hot US data. Asia was capped at the 0.8282 asian high. The 03:45 UTC flush held above the asian low at 0.8263, and price is now coiling between higher lows and lower highs under the 0.8276 intraday cap ahead of London open, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82756, 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8276 intraday cap breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8282 asian high next
Failure to hold the 0.8263 asian low and 0.8261 overnight lo exposes the 0.8227 neckline
Recovery through the 0.8301 ny bounce high would negate the post-PPI downleg
London open is likely to resolve the higher-lows / lower-highs squeeze
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact, lows flattening; mid-Asian range 0.8263–0.8282.
Lower highs since the post-US-data spike to 0.8316 remain intact as USD slid on falling yields despite hot PPI. The falling trendline, now near 0.8274, capped the 05:45 UTC bounce, while the 0.8261 swing low held on retests at rollover and on the 03:45 UTC drop around Warsh's speech. Price sits mid-Asian range ahead of the London open, with RSI neutral near 47.
Support: 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
A close above the falling trendline and the 0.8282 asian high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.8301 ny high next.
A break below the 0.8261 swing low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the macro digest.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and Treasury yield moves could shift this read during NY hours.
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into Asian range · RSI 43 · price 0.82699
Lower highs from 0.8316 data spike; Asian range 0.8261–0.8282.
USD/CHF faded Thursday's US data spike to 0.8316 as yields slid. It has since printed a lower-high chain, with Warsh's speech knocking price to the 0.8263 Asian low. The rebound met rejection at 0.8276, a lower high at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian range, and price now sits mid-range near 0.8270 just before London open with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82756, 0.82822
What it said to watch
London-session break of the 0.8261 day low and Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.8282 Asian high invalidates the lower-high trendline read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and Treasury yield moves could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend from NY spike, flattening in Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.82707
Lower highs since NY open; Asian range 0.8261–0.8282.
The spike to 0.8316 on the hot US PPI and retail sales prints was faded as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD, carving lower highs into a 0.8261 Asian low. Asia has ranged below the lower-highs line. A late-Asia rejection under 0.8280 sent price back to a 0.8263 swing low, and it now sits mid-range below both EMAs, with the bounce stalling near the 50% fib of the late-NY selloff.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8261 asian low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.8282 asian high and the lower-highs line invalidates the downtrend read; 0.8300 round number next
London open in under 2h typically resolves the Asian range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since US data spike · RSI 39 · price 0.82671
USD faded the hot PPI/retail sales spike to 0.8316 as falling yields took over. Price has printed lower highs since, with the Asian rally capped at 0.8282, near the 50% retrace of the 0.8301 prior swing to 0.8261 swing low leg. The 03:45 UTC drop held the 0.8263 asia low, leaving late-Asia trade inside 0.8261–0.8282 ahead of London open, with the 0.8275 bounce high capping.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82749, 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8261 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 dt neckline
Close above the 0.8282 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
London open is likely to resolve the Asian range; 0.8275 bounce high is the first cap
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling inside Asian range · RSI 37 · price 0.82671
Lower highs pressing into the 0.8261–0.8263 floor.
USDCHF is holding a 0.8261–0.8282 Asian range after Thursday's yield-driven slide, with the Asian high stalling near the 50% level of the NY leg fib from the 0.8301 swing high. Lower highs at 0.8282, 0.8280 and 0.8275 are compressing price toward the 0.8263 swing low, where a late-Asia flush was rejected. RSI(14) sits near 37 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82749, 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8261 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8227 neckline
Close above the 0.8275 lower high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 0.8282 Asian high
London open is close and may set the session range; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since PPI spike; Asian range 0.8261–0.8282.
The NY selloff from the 0.8316 PPI spike high, driven by falling US yields that outweighed the hot PPI and retail beats, has stalled into an Asian range of 0.8261–0.8282. The Asian high sits at the 38.2% retrace of that decline. A late-Asia rejection from 0.8280 dropped about 15 pips into the 0.8263 swing low, where demand stepped in, leaving price mid-range below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
London open break of the Asian range sets the session direction
Close below the 0.8261 Asian low extends the lower-low chain; the 0.8227 neckline is the next reference
Close above the 0.8282 Asian high and lower-highs line breaks the post-NY downtrend read; 0.8301 prior high above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 0.8316, 0.8301 and 0.8282; price back at the bottom of the Asian range.
Price rejected near 0.8280 into Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech window, then dropped 15 pips to the 0.8263 warsh low. That move erased most of the Asian bounce off the 0.8261 asia low, and RSI(14) sits near 31. The lower-high sequence from the 0.8316 spike on the US PPI and retail sales releases, then the 0.8301 ny bounce high, is intact as falling US yields weigh on USD.
Support: 0.82634, 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8274, 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8261 asia low extends the lower-low sequence; the 0.8227 double-top neckline is the next level cited in coverage
Recovery above the 0.8274 minor base and the 0.8282 asia high would negate the post-Warsh breakdown
A move back above the 0.8301 ny bounce high breaks the lower-high chain
Digestion of Warsh's remarks and US yield moves into London open, then US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could shift this read
Price now sits beyond the 78.6% retracement of the Asian rally fib; a full retrace tests the 0.8261 asia low
Lower highs from 0.8301; Asian range broken lower.
Warsh's speech at 03:30 UTC hit USD/CHF with a 15-pip drop, breaking the Asian range lower and erasing most of the bounce off the 0.8261 session low. Price is now just above that session low. The bounce was capped at 0.8282, the Asian high, keeping the lower-high chain from the 0.8301 NY high intact. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold, and the slide fits the falling-yields, risk-off USD tone.
Support: 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.8227 neckline
M15 close back above the 0.8282 Asian high negates the post-Warsh range break and the descending trendline from the NY high
Further Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.8272–0.8282 above the 0.8261 rollover low.
Thursday's slide from the 0.8316 US-data spike bottomed at the 0.8261 rollover low. Falling Treasury yields outweighed the hot PPI beat. The Asia session has since given back half of the bounce to the 0.8282 Asian high, and the 50% fib near the 0.8272 Asian low is holding so far. Price is pinned under the ema cluster near 0.8278, RSI(14) is neutral at 44 and ATR is only about 3 pips.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaking at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the Asian range
M15 close below the 0.8272 asian low exposes the 0.8261 rollover low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema cluster and a close above the 0.8282 asian high reopens the 0.8300 round number
03:16 UTC
Asian rebound stalling below NY sell-off highs · RSI 46 · price 0.82731
Asian range 0.8261–0.8282, pullback to 50% fib.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8316 reversed as yields fell, and NY hours printed a lower high at 0.8301 before sliding to 0.8264. The Asian range then held at 0.8261 and lifted to 0.8282, where three tests drew rejection; price has eased back to the 0.8272 swing low, the 50% fib of the Asian leg, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC, inside the next bar, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8272 swing low exposes the asian low at 0.8261
Close above the 0.8282 asian high opens the 0.8301 lower high
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce fading · RSI 44 · price 0.82731
Lower highs from 0.8316 post-data spike; tight Asian range 0.8272–0.8282 capped at 38.2% fib.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beat spiked the pair to 0.8316, then reversed it as US yields fell. That drop printed a 0.8261 swing low after the NY close. The Asian session bounce stalled at the 0.8282 asian high, the 38.2% retrace of the post-PPI drop, and price is back near the 0.8272 asian low with RSI(14) at 44 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.8272–0.8282 Asian range is the first structural test
M15 close below the asian low at 0.8272 reopens the 0.8261 swing low
Close above the asian high at 0.8282 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8301 swing high
Post-NY sell-off consolidation; Asia bounce capped near 50% retrace.
The US data spike to 0.8316 was faded through NY hours as Treasury yields fell, and price bottomed at the 0.8261 rollover low. The Asian rebound printed a higher low at 0.8272 but met rejection at the 0.8282 Asian high, close to the 50% fib of the 0.8301–0.8261 leg. Price is now slipping back under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~1h) and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8272 higher low exposes the 0.8261 rollover low
M15 close above the 0.8282 Asian high and the 50% fib reopens the 0.8301 NY bounce high, then the 0.8316 data spike
Higher lows off 0.8261 rollover low; tight 6-pip Asian range below 0.8282.
Thursday's US data spike to 0.8316 reversed as falling yields outweighed the hot PPI. The pair then slid to a 0.8261 rollover low and has since ground higher. Asia is boxed in a 6-pip range between the 0.8276 Asian low and the 0.8282 Asian high, capped at EMA50 and the 50% retracement of the 0.8301–0.8261 pullback leg.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8270, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8290, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~75 min) is the likely catalyst for a break of the Asian range
M15 close above the 0.8282 Asian high clears the 50% pullback fib and opens the 0.8290 prior swing, then the 0.8300 round number
Close below the 0.8276 Asian low breaks the recovery line from 0.8261 and exposes the 0.8270 NY low, then the rollover low
02:02 UTC
Downtrend pausing, Asia rebound · RSI 56 · price 0.82774
Higher lows off 0.8261, capped at 0.8282.
The US data spike to the 0.8316 data high faded as Treasury yields fell. Price broke the 0.8270 NY low and printed a 0.8261 session low after the broker rollover. Asia is building a higher-low chain off that low but is capped at the 0.8282 Asian high, near the 50% fib of the 0.8301–0.8261 drop.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8270, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.8276 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and reopens the 0.8270 NY low, then the 0.8261 session low
An M15 close above the 0.8282 Asian high exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8316 data high
Higher lows off the 0.8261 24h low in Asia, capped at 0.8281 below the failed 0.8300 retest.
The NY data spike to the 0.8316 spike high was rejected as US yields fell. A later retest of the 0.8300 round number also failed, and price then printed a 24h low at 0.8261 after rollover. The Asia leg has since recovered to an asian high at 0.8281 and is now pausing just above the 0.8276 pullback low. Price sits right at the EMA50, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of about 3 pips leaves the thin Asian range exposed
An M15 close above the 0.8281 asian high extends the Asia leg toward the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8276 pullback low opens a deeper retrace of the Asia leg, with its 50% fib near 0.8271
A break of the 0.8261 24h low resumes the NY-session decline and negates the Asia higher-low sequence
Lower highs from the NY data spike; Asia higher lows stalling at the 50% fib.
The 0.8316 spike on the hot US PPI and retail sales was rejected through NY. Falling yields then drove USD/CHF to a 0.8261 swing low after the rollover. Early Asia has bounced in higher lows to the 50% fib of that leg, where the asian high at 0.8281 is capping, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82811, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h) and could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt targets the 0.8300 area
M15 close above the 0.8281 asian high and 50% fib reopens the 0.8301 lower high
A close above the 0.8301 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.82725 asian low ends the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8261 swing low
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia corrective bounce · RSI 55 · price 0.82797
Lower highs from 0.8316; Asia higher-low grind stalling at 50% fib.
The post-PPI spike to 0.8316 was rejected as falling Treasury yields overrode the hot US data, leaving lower highs and a 0.8261 swing low at the rollover. Asia has ground higher in a tight flag-like chain along the Asian trendline. Price is stalling at the 0.8281 Asian high, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 0.8301–0.8261 NY leg, with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 0.82763, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82811, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean puts the 0.8300 swing high back in play
M15 close above the 0.8281 Asian high and 50% fib reopens 0.8300, then the 0.8316 ppi spike high
Break of the Asian trendline and the 0.8276 asian hl ends the Asia bounce; failure to hold the 0.8261 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia corrective bounce · RSI 60 · price 0.82797
Lower highs from 0.8316 rejection; Asia higher-low chain off 0.8261.
The spike to 0.8316 on the US data release met rejection. Falling yields then pulled USD to a 0.8261 swing low around the daily rollover, despite the hot PPI. Asia has since stacked higher lows along trendline support and is pressing the Asian high at 0.8281, just under the 38.2% fib of that drop.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8274, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8289, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8281 asian high and 38.2% fib opens the fib 50% at 0.8289, then the 0.8300 round number
Break of the Asia trendline near 0.8276 and the fib 23.6% at 0.8274 puts the 0.8261 swing low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; the current ~3 pip ATR understates event risk
Lower highs from the 0.83162 spike; Asia building higher lows off the 0.82612 rollover low.
Falling yields outweighed the hot US PPI. The post-data spike to 0.83162 was sold into a run of lower highs, ending at the 0.82612 rollover low. Asia has since built a higher-low chain up to the 0.82807 asia high, stalling near the 50% fib of the 0.83006–0.82612 leg with price pinned at the EMA50.
Support: 0.82704, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82807, 0.82856, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82807 asia high and the 0.82856 fib 61.8 would challenge the lower-high sequence toward the 0.83006 lower high
Break of the Asia rising support near 0.8276, then a close back below the 0.82704 ny low, would expose the 0.82612 rollover low
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain in Asia, below 0.8301 swing high.
Thursday's NY slide from 0.8316 to the 0.8261 rollover low came as falling US yields outweighed hot PPI and retail sales. Early Asia session has ground higher on a higher-low chain, reclaiming the 0.8278 prior high. Price is pressing the 0.8281 session high near the 50% retrace of the 0.8301–0.8261 leg.
Support: 0.82777, 0.82725, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82807, 0.82855, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8286 61.8% fib puts the 0.8301 swing high back in focus
Loss of the 0.8278 prior high and the 0.8273 higher low breaks the rising trendline, reopening the 0.8261 rollover low
Lower highs from 0.8316, micro higher lows off 0.8261.
The US PPI/retail sales release swept the Asian high, printing 0.8316, then reversed. Falling yields outweighed the hot data and the pair made lower highs down to a 0.8261 day low. Early Asia is grinding back on a micro hl chain to the 38.2% fib near 0.8276–0.8279, pressing EMA50 with RSI(14) at about 64.
Support: 0.82735, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82855, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8285 extends the rebound toward psych 0.8300
Break of the micro hl at 0.8273 ends the higher-low chain and puts the 0.8261 day low back in play
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8316 PPI spike; higher lows off 0.8261 in Asia.
The PPI spike to 0.8316 met rejection as yields slid, leaving lower highs through NY and a session low at 0.8261 near rollover. Early Asia has built higher lows along a rising trendline and is now pressing the 0.8278 pivot high and the EMA50, between the 38.2% and 50% of the 0.8301–0.8261 leg. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR is about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8286, 0.8301
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8286 (fib 61.8) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8301 ny bounce hi in view
Rejection at the 0.8278 pivot high keeps the NY downtrend structure intact
Loss of the Asia trendline and the 0.8270 ny low reopens the 0.8261 session low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read