Lower highs since NY data spike; small higher-low chain off 0.8261.
The NY spike to 0.8316 on hot US PPI was rejected, and falling yields dragged the pair to a 0.8261 session low after NY close. Early Asia has built a higher low at 0.8269 but is stalling just under the 0.8278 swing high, near the 38.2% fib of the 0.8301–0.8261 leg.
Support: 0.8269, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high opens the 0.8300 round number
Close back below the 0.8269 higher low puts the 0.8261 session low back in play
Break of 0.8261 extends the lower-low sequence
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
NY lower highs into a 0.82612 low; corrective rally now testing the 0.82777 lower high.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.83162 faded fast as falling yields outweighed the hot PPI. NY then printed lower highs at the 0.83006 swing high and the 0.82777 lower high, and price reached a session low of 0.82612 around rollover. The early Asia session rebound has climbed back to the 0.82777 lower high, the 38.2% fib, on thin ranges, with RSI(14) near 58 and price trapped between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8269, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82777, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82777 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and opens the 0.83006 swing high
Loss of the 0.82690 late ny base exposes the 0.82612 session low again
Break of the rebound line from 0.82612 ends the early-Asia bounce structure
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 54 · price 0.82744
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI spike; bounce testing the last lower high.
The ppi spike to 0.8316 faded through NY hours as falling US yields outweighed the hot data, leaving lower highs at 0.8300 and 0.8278. The slide extended to the 0.8261 asia low after the daily open, under the 0.8264 prior low. Early Asia has lifted to 0.8274, pressing the 0.8278 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the 0.8300–0.8261 leg with RSI(14) mid-50s.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8278 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.8300 swing high is next
Slip back below 0.8264 prior low and 0.8261 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 neckline
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the US data spike; price testing the 0.8278 lower high.
The spike to 0.8316 on the hot US PPI and retail sales prints reversed as Treasury yields fell. That set a chain of lower highs through NY, from 0.8316 to the 0.8301 ny high and then the 0.8278 lower high, and lower lows down to the 0.8264 ny low and 0.8261 24h low after rollover. Early Asia has bounced 13 pips off the 24h low and is retesting the 0.8278 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace of the move from the ny high, with price holding above the ema20.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82643, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82778, 0.83006
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8278 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high chain and exposes the 0.8301 ny high
Rejection at 0.8278 and a slip back under the ema20 at 0.8270 keeps the downtrend sequence intact toward the 0.8264 ny low and 0.8261 24h low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt would test the lower-high cap
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8316 NY data spike; bounce testing the lower-high line.
USD/CHF was rejected at 0.8316 on the hot US PPI and retail sales release as falling Treasury yields overrode the data. Price then carved lower highs at the 0.8301 bounce high and the 0.8278 swing high, with a 0.8264 NY low and a fresh 0.8261 session low after rollover. The early-Asia bounce is pressing the lower-high line and the 23.6% retracement of the NY sell-off near 0.8273, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 0.82643, 0.82612
Resistance: 0.82777, 0.83006
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8282
Failure to hold the 0.8264 NY low and the 0.8261 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 0.8301 bounce high would neutralise the post-data downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since US data spike; thin post-rollover drift near the lows.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8316 was rejected as yields fell. The post-data drop has since printed lower highs at 0.8301 and the 0.8278 swing high, with a fresh session low at 0.8261 after rollover. Price sits just under EMA20, and RSI(14) at 46 is neutral in thin Asia-session trade.
Support: 0.82612, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82778, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens a retest of the 0.8301 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8250 round number
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 5h away, and could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY data spike; thin early-Asia drift near the session low.
The post-US-data spike to 0.8316 reversed as Treasury yields fell. Since then USDCHF has printed lower highs at 0.8301 and 0.8278, and the 19:30 UTC rejection at the swing high lined up with the 38.2% fib of the 0.8301-0.8261 leg. Price is now drifting in thin early-Asia trade just above the 0.8261 session low and below the broken low at 0.8270, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8278, 0.8301
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
A close back above the 0.8278 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Holding below the broken low at 0.8270 keeps the downtrend structure intact
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 0.82648
Lower highs at 0.8316, 0.8300 and 0.8278; grinding along the session low after rollover.
The 12:30 UTC data spike to 0.8316 on hot PPI and retail sales was fully unwound as falling US yields dominated. Rallies were rejected at the 0.8300 lower high and the 0.8278 swing high, and price is now drifting near the 0.8261 session low in thin post-rollover trade, RSI(14) around 41. The 0.8227 neckline from the market context sits below as the next reference.
Support: 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82778, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low extends the decline toward the 0.8227 neckline
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a reclaim of the 0.8300 lower high would negate the intraday downtrend
Fib 38.2% of the 0.8300–0.8261 leg sits at the 0.8276 swing high area; a rejection there keeps the sequence intact
Lower highs and lower lows, compressing at session low.
USDCHF kept printing lower highs and lower lows through NY. Falling yields and AI risk-off overrode the hot PPI and retail sales beats. The late-NY bounce saw rejection at the 0.8278 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace of the 0.8301–0.8261 leg, and price now sits on the 0.8261 session low in thin post-rollover Asia trade with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8278, 0.8301
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h, inside the Asia session) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8250 round number
A reclaim of the 0.8270 ny low followed by a close above the 0.8278 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
A move back above the 0.8301 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the US data spike.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.8316 on hot US PPI and retail sales reversed as Treasury yields fell. NY then printed a chain of lower highs (0.8301, 0.8278) and lower lows. Late-NY bounces stalled at the 0.8272 NY cap under the descending trendline, and the post-rollover gap set a fresh session low at 0.8262 in thin trade. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.82619, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.82778, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high, which sits at the 38.2% of the selloff fib, breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8262 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 neckline
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number would undo the post-data selloff structure
Post-rollover gap in thin liquidity: a fill back above the NY cap at 0.8272 would soften the read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after NY · RSI 39 · price 0.82644
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC data spike.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8316 was rejected. Falling Treasury yields outweighed the hot PPI and retail sales, and the pair has since stepped down through lower highs at the 0.8301 swing high and 0.8278. A fresh low at 0.8262 printed after NY close in thin trade, price is pinned under the ema20 near 0.8271, and RSI(14) sits near 38, not stretched.
Support: 0.82619, 0.8250, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8271, 0.82778, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8262 fresh low exposes the 0.8250 psych level, then the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the news
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC, about 6h away, could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 0.8301 swing high would negate the post-data fade
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC data spike; Asian low broken and retested from below.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8316 reversed as Treasury yields fell, and NY printed lower highs and lower lows, breaking the 0.8278 Asian low for a session low at 0.8264. The 19:30 UTC bounce was rejected at 0.8278, where the old Asian low meets the 38.2% retrace of the 0.8301 swing high to 0.8264 leg. Late-NY trade is drifting back toward the lows, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82778, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8264 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Reclaiming 0.8278 (Asian low, 38.2% retrace) breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8301 swing high back into view
The 0.8316 data spike high marks the session extreme; trade back above it negates the NY downtrend read
Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC (high impact) and could materially shift this read during the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-PPI spike; compressing just above the day low.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.8316 on hot PPI and the retail sales beat was fully rejected as Treasury yields fell. Price then broke the Asian low at 0.8278 and set a day low at 0.8264. The late NY bounce stalled at 0.8278, just under the 38.2% fib, keeping the lower-high chain intact; price is compressing near 0.8270 into the NY close with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.83006
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.8278 (asian low, 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8264 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8227 double-top neckline
A reclaim of the 0.8300 round number (16:00 UTC swing high) undoes the post-PPI reversal
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC, now) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC, during Asia) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through NY; Asian low broken, late-NY compression above session low.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales data spike to 0.8316 was faded as Treasury yields fell. NY then broke the Asian low near 0.8278 and set lower highs at the 0.8301 swing high and 0.8278, with a session low at 0.8264. The 0.8278 lower high capped the bounce at the fib 38.2% of the 0.8301–0.8264 leg, and price is now compressing just above the low late in NY, RSI(14) at 38 and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8260
Resistance: 0.82777, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8264 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8260 round number
Close above the 0.8278 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and the fib 38.2% cap, opening 0.8301
Only a reclaim of the 0.8316 data spike high would negate the intraday downtrend
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC now) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC, Asia session) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC data spike.
USD/CHF faded the hot PPI and retail sales spike to the 0.8316 data high and stepped lower through NY hours. Falling Treasury yields overrode the strong data, leaving lower highs at 0.8316, 0.8301 (swing high) and 0.8278. The late-NY bounce off the 0.8264 session low was rejected at the 0.8278 lower high; RSI(14) near 36, not oversold.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82777, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 0.8264 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Recovery into the 0.8284–0.8290 fib zone below the 0.8301 swing high would test the downtrend structure
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 12:30 UTC data spike; late-NY compression above session low.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.8316 on the hot PPI and retail sales prints was rejected as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.8301 and a fresh session low at 0.8264 during NY hours. It is now compressing late in the NY session below the 0.8278 swing high, which also marks the Asian range low.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8260
Resistance: 0.82777, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8278 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.8301 lower high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.8264 session low exposes the 0.8260 round number
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh at 03:30 UTC during the Asia session, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI spike; bounce testing the Asian low from below.
The PPI spike to 0.8316 reversed as Treasury yields fell. NY then printed lower highs at 0.8316 and the 0.8300 round number, and lower lows at the 0.8270 prior low and a 0.8264 session low. The late-NY bounce is now pressing the 0.8278 Asian low from below, with RSI(14) recovering to 43 from oversold-adjacent levels.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8284, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8278 asian low keeps the lower-high trendline intact
M15 close above 0.8284 (fib 38.2 and trendline) breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold 0.8270 prior low, then a break of the 0.8264 session low, extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the US data spike; Asian and London lows broken.
The spike to 0.8316 on hot US PPI and retail sales was rejected as yields fell. NY then printed a 0.8301 lower high and broke below the NY low at 0.8270 to a 0.8264 session low, under the Asian and London lows. The late-NY bounce is testing the ema20 and the 38.2% retracement near 0.8279, with the fib 50% at 0.8283 just above.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8279, 0.8283, 0.8301
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8283 (fib 50%) and the falling trendline near 0.8287 would break the lower-high chain; 0.8301 lower high is the next cap
Failure to hold 0.8270 (ny low) and then 0.8264 (session low) extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY bounce off the low · RSI 33 · price 0.82721
Lower highs at 0.8316 and 0.8301, fresh lower low at 0.8264.
The US PPI spike to 0.8316 (the ppi high) was rejected as Treasury yields slid. That left lower highs at 0.8316 and 0.8301 and a fresh session low at 0.8264 after London close, below the 0.8286 two-week low flagged in the digest. Price is now marking time just above the NY low at 0.8270, still under the Asian low at 0.8278 and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8301, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 0.8278 and the 38.2% of the post-PPI leg near 0.8284 would signal the bounce is extending
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.8270 and the session low at 0.8264 extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower-highs line through 0.8301 would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC (~1h) and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read via yields
19:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, minor bounce off lows · RSI 34 · price 0.8271
Lower highs and lower lows since the US data spike.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8316 was rejected, setting a lower-high chain (0.8316, then 0.8301). Late NY hours printed a fresh session low at 0.8264, below the 0.8278 Asian low, as falling yields outweighed the hot PPI and retail sales. Price is holding a small bounce under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34 and is retracing only a fraction of the last leg down from the 0.8301 lower high.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8301, 0.8316
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8278 Asian low points to a deeper retrace toward the 0.8301 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8264 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8250 round number
A break above the lower highs trendline and the 0.8316 data spike invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC US data spike.
The spike to 0.8316 on the hot US PPI/retail sales release at 12:30 UTC fully reversed as yields fell. The late NY grind then cut through the 0.8278 asian low and the 0.8270 prior low to a session low at 0.8264. The NY high at 0.8301 capped the 16:00 UTC bounce, extending a lower-highs sequence. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.82779, 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8270 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaim of the 0.8278 asian low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8278 invalidates the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 0.8264 session low exposes the 0.8250 psych level
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
18:34 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows late NY · RSI 23 · price 0.82647
Lower highs 0.8316 → 0.8301, new low below 0.8270.
USD/CHF stayed heavy after London close, slicing through the 0.8270 prior low from the NY session and printing a session low at 0.8264. RSI(14) sits near 23. A lower high at 0.8301 caps the bounce from the 0.8316 data spike, where hot US PPI and retail sales were faded as Treasury yields slid. Price now trades below the 0.8286 two-week low cited in the macro digest.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.8270 prior low would mark the break below it as a false break
M15 close above 0.8301 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Extension toward 0.8250 round number if the session low gives way with RSI already sub-25
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The 12:30 UTC data spike to 0.8316 was faded as falling yields outweighed the hot US PPI. NY broke the Asian low at 0.8278 to a 0.8270 NY low. The bounce stalled at a 0.8301 lower high, and late NY has slid back to retest the NY low, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.82704, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82779, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8270 NY low confirms a lower low, with the 0.8250 round number next
Reclaim of the 0.8278 Asian low would turn the move into a false break of the NY low
Close above the 0.8301 lower high breaks the descending trendline off the data spike
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 0.82722
Lower high at 0.83006 after data spike; price retesting session low.
The hot US PPI and retail sales spike to 0.83162 (data spike) was fully reversed as falling Treasury yields outweighed the data, printing a 0.82704 session low in the first hour of NY. The bounce stalled at a 0.83006 lower high, and late-NY selling has price back retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.82704
Resistance: 0.82827, 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82704 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.82827 minor high, then the descending trendline from the data spike toward the 0.83006 lower high, would neutralise the late-NY slide
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (Asia session) could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY data spike · RSI 38 · price 0.82776
Lower highs from 0.8316 to 0.8301, price back at the Asia low above the 0.8270 NY low.
The PPI/retail-sales spike at the NY open briefly broke above the 0.8306 London high, then reversed to a 0.8270 NY low as Treasury yields slid. That spike high at 0.8316 now marks the data high. The bounce stalled at 0.8301, the bounce high near the 61.8% retrace of the post-data drop, and price is back at the 0.8278 Asia low with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 0.82779, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.83059, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8270 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8301 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline
A move back through the 0.8306 London high toward the 0.8316 data high would unwind the post-data reversal
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and the 18:00 UTC budget statement could shift the read during late NY hours
The hot US PPI and retail sales beat spiked the pair to a data spike at 0.8316 at 12:30 UTC. Falling Treasury yields unwound the move to a 0.8270 session low by 14:00 UTC. A rebound stalled at a lower high near 0.8300 after London close, and price is drifting back onto the 0.8279 late low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.82787, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8270 session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 0.8300 lower high invalidates the declining-highs read
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 43 · price 0.82788
Lower high at 0.8301 after the PPI spike; price retesting the Asian low.
The PPI/retail-sales release spiked the pair to a 0.83162 ppi high. Falling yields then dragged it through the Asian low to a 0.82704 ny low. The afternoon NY bounce met rejection at 0.83006, a lower high near the 61.8% retracement and 0.8300. Price is back retesting the 0.82779 asian low with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.82779, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82704 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.83006 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read; 0.83162 ppi high sits above
Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read via US yields
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 46 · price 0.82841
Lower high at 0.8301 below the 0.8316 PPI spike high; bounce from 0.8270 fading late NY.
The hot US PPI spike to the 0.8316 ppi high faded straight away as Treasury yields slid. Price then undercut the 0.8278 Asia low and printed a 0.8270 NY low. The rebound stalled twice at the 0.8300 round number, about a 0.618–0.66 retracement of the drop, and late NY is drifting back toward the 0.8282 recent low.
Support: 0.82822, 0.82779, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8270 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Holding under the 0.8300 round number keeps the lower-high structure intact; a close above it reopens the 0.8316 ppi high
Loss of the 0.8282 recent low puts the 0.8278 asia low back in play
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via yields
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 48 · price 0.82888
Lower high under 0.8300 after the NY low at 0.8270; range 0.8270–0.8300.
The 12:30 UTC data spike to 0.8316 faded as Treasury yields slid despite hot US PPI. The NY low at 0.8270 undercut the Asian low at 0.8278. The rebound stalled at the 0.8300 round number, near the 61.8% retracement, and price is back at 0.8289 below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8270 NY low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the Asian low
Close above the 0.8300 round number / 61.8% retracement negates the lower-high read and exposes the 0.8316 data spike
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
The PPI spike to 0.8316 above the London high was a false break. As Treasury yields slid, it unwound to a NY-session day low at 0.8270, below the Asian low at 0.8278. After London close, higher lows at 0.8278 and 0.8291 have lifted price back to the 0.8300 round number, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, where two attempts have been rejected.
Support: 0.82913, 0.82779, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.83059, 0.83162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number and 0.8306 london high reopens the 0.8316 ppi spike high
Break of the 0.8291 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 0.8278 asian low back in play
Loss of the 0.8270 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday down, now recovering · RSI 51 · price 0.82985
0.8270–0.8316 range after NY false break.
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 0.8316 spike high. Falling yields then dragged it to a 0.8270 NY low, a false break below the 0.8278 Asia low that was reclaimed within the bar. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace near 0.8299, RSI(14) neutral at 51, still below the 0.8306 London high.
Support: 0.8291, 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8306 london high reopens the 0.8316 spike high
Loss of the 0.8291 pullback low puts the 0.8278 asia low and 0.8270 ny low back in play
Rejection at the 61.8% retrace keeps the NY decline intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC, the main overnight event risk
The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail release produced a data spike to 0.8316 that reversed as Treasury yields slid. Price broke the asian low at 0.8278 and set a session low at 0.8270, but that break was rejected, and the rebound has retraced ~61.8% of the post-data drop into the 0.8300 round number. NY higher lows from 0.8270 are intact, with 0.8291 the nearest higher low; price sits marginally above a flat EMA50.
Support: 0.8291, 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number clears the post-data fib 61.8% and puts the 0.8316 data spike back in view
Loss of the 0.8291 higher low breaks the NY higher lows line and exposes the 0.8278 asian low
Break of the 0.8270 session low would confirm the false break failed
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and the Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, short-term rebound in play · RSI 48 · price 0.82968
Lower highs from 0.8316 spike; higher low at 0.8278 after session low.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales release spiked to 0.8316 and reversed as yields fell, printing a session low at 0.8270 before a sharp rejection. Price has since held a higher low at the Asian low near 0.8278 and is retesting the 0.8300 round number, at the 61.8% fib of the post-data drop and just under EMA50, with the ema20 at 0.8292 now underneath.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8300 and the 0.8306 london high opens a retest of the 0.8316 spike high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8292 and the 0.8278 asian low puts the 0.8270 session low back in play
Break below 0.8270 confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 0.8316, lower low at 0.8270, retracing into 61.8% fib.
The US PPI spike to the 0.8316 ppi high was rejected inside the bar, and the NY session swept the 0.8278 asian low to a 0.8270 session low as Treasury yields fell. The bounce is now pressing the 61.8% fib near 0.8299, still below the 0.8306 london high, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.82987, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8299 and the 0.8306 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 0.8278 asian low exposes the 0.8270 session low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and the Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC during the Asia session could reprice yields and shift this read
Lower lows since Asia; failed break of 0.8278 now retracing.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales releases spiked the pair to a 0.8316 data spike before a rejection, with falling yields dragging it to a 0.8270 session low. The push under the 0.8278 asia low failed to hold, and mid-NY price is back at the 50% of the post-data drop near 0.8293, RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8305, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8278 asia low reopens the 0.8270 session low; a close beneath that confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.8299 fib 61.8 and the 0.8305 range top would neutralise the post-data drop
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8316 PPI high; failed break below the Asian low.
Hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to the 0.8316 PPI high. Falling yields then dragged it through the 0.8278 Asian low to a 0.8270 session low in the first hours of NY. That break failed and price has reclaimed the 38.2% fib at 0.8288, sitting near the 50% retrace of the post-PPI drop with RSI(14) neutral around 46.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8278 asian low reopens the 0.8270 session low
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number and 0.8306 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 41 · price 0.8284
Lower highs below 0.8316 data spike; false break of 0.8278 Asia low.
The 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales beats spiked USD/CHF to 0.8316, but the data spike was rejected and NY extended the slide through the 0.8278 Asia low to a 0.8270 NY low. That break was quickly reclaimed. The rebound is stalling at the 0.8291 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the data selloff fib, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8278 Asia low turns the false break into a lower low and reopens the 0.8270 NY low
Close above the 0.8291 bounce high and 0.8306 London high would break the post-data lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
NY swept below the Asian low then snapped back inside the overnight range.
The 12:30 GMT US data spike to the 0.8316 data high was rejected despite the hot PPI and retail sales beat. NY then broke the 0.8278 asian low to a 0.8270 session low before snapping back to 0.8289. Price is back inside the overnight 0.8278–0.8306 range, about 40% into the post-data drop retracement and below both EMAs, with ATR(14) expanding to roughly 10 pips.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8278 asian low turns the sweep into a range break, with 0.8245 the next reference
Recovery above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8306 london high reopens the 0.8316 data high
Failure to hold the 0.8270 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after data spike · RSI 24 · price 0.82715
Lower highs since the 12:30 GMT spike; Asian range low and 0.8278 prior low broken.
USD/CHF spiked to the 0.8316 data high on the hot 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales beats. The spike was rejected inside the first hour of NY, and the pair broke the Asian range floor and the 0.8278 prior low (Wednesday's low zone) to print a session low at 0.8271. RSI(14) sits near 24 with closes pinned to the lows, and the 0.8278 prior low now sits overhead.
Support: 0.82715, 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8294, 0.83162
What it said to watch
Recovery and M15 close back above the 0.8278 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8271 session low exposes the 0.8245 range base cited in the CHF digest
M15 close above the post-data lower-highs trendline and the 0.8294 50% fib of the data spike leg invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h lows in NY · RSI 24 · price 0.82715
Post-data spike rejected; NY broke below London and Asian lows.
The hot 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales beats spiked the pair to 0.8316, but the move was rejected. NY has since broken the London low at 0.8281 and the 0.8278 asian low, printing a 0.8272 session low. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, and the 0.8300 round number caps the post-data drop retracement.
Support: 0.82715, 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8300, 0.83162
What it said to watch
A return above the 0.8278 asian low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8272 session low exposes the 0.8245 range floor
Recovery through the 0.8316 data spike high negates the post-data drop
Fed's Hammack (20:30 GMT) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
0.8278–0.8316 range since Asia, lower highs after data spike.
The 12:30 GMT data spike to 0.8316 on the hot PPI and retail sales beats was rejected within the bar. Despite the digest's firmer-dollar read, the first hour of NY has sold back to the 0.8278 Asian low, the floor of the range held since Asia, with RSI(14) near 31. London never sustained trade above the 0.8306 session cap.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 Asian low breaks the range floor and opens the 0.8250 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.8306 session cap undoes the rejection and puts the 0.8316 data spike back in view
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Range 0.8278–0.8316 with rising lows; data spike rejected.
The 12:30 GMT US data beat (PPI 6.3% vs 5.3%, retail sales +0.8%) spiked the pair to 0.8316. That was a false break above the London high, and price reversed back below the 0.8300 round number. Since the Asian low at 0.8278 the pair has ranged on rising lows, with the London low at 0.8281 the nearest floor.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8306 swing high reopens the 0.8316 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.8281 London low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.8278 Asian low; a break resumes the downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Range after overnight selloff, no directional follow-through · RSI 48 · price 0.82921
0.8278–0.8316 range since Asian low; PPI spike above range rejected.
The hot 12:30 UTC US PPI print lifted USDCHF to a 0.8316 spike high, briefly above the 0.8313 high set before London open, but price was rejected and fell back to 0.8292. That leaves the pair mid-range, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48, while higher lows at the 0.8278 Asian low and 0.8281 are still intact.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8316
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8306 range top would put the 0.8316 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8288 swing low would expose the 0.8278 Asian low and break the higher-lows line
A retrace beyond the 78.6% level of the PPI spike fib would erase the post-data move entirely
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Intraday range 0.8278–0.8316, flat lows, failed spike at range top.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales beats produced a two-way bar. Price spiked to a 0.8316 spike high above the London high, then reversed back below the 0.8300 round number into NY hours. Since the Asia slide bottomed at the 0.8278 Asian low, the pair has ranged 0.8278–0.8316, with the 0.8281 London low holding just above it.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number puts the 0.8316 spike high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8281 London low and 0.8278 Asian low breaks the range floor and resumes the Asia slide
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the read; Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC is the larger risk
Post-data ATR expansion (237-pip-tenths spike bar) means wider intraday swings while the range holds
12:46 UTC
Recovering from overnight low, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.8306
Double-bottom base at 0.8278/0.8281, rising lows below 0.8316 cap.
The post-CPI slide from 0.8395 bottomed at the 0.8278 Asia low. London held 0.8281, then printed a higher low at 0.8292, building a double-bottom base along rising lows under the 0.8300 round number. The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail release at NY open spiked the pair to a 0.8316 spike high above London's 0.8313 cap, but the bar faded to 0.8306, a rejection near the 23.6% of the decline fib.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8316, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 spike high clears the London cap and opens the 0.8345 prior shelf from Wednesday's late NY session
Loss of the 0.8292 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 0.8278 Asia low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number after the data spike would mark the rejection as a lower high
Further Fed speakers ahead of Friday's Warsh speech could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
12:31 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, compressing below 0.8306 · RSI 56 · price 0.83027
Rising lows since London under a flat 0.8306 cap.
USDCHF has rebuilt from the 0.8278 asia low and 0.8281 london low to just above 0.8300. The franc is giving back gains after the soft Swiss PPI, while the dollar is still trading off the faded CPI pop. Rising lows at 0.8288 and 0.8292 sit under an 0.8306 intraday cap that rejected twice during London and lines up with EMA50. The 0.8314 ppi spike high from earlier this morning sits just above, and the range is coiling into the US data at the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8314
What it said to watch
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR sits near 5 pips, so the release can easily exceed the current range
M15 close above the 0.8306 intraday cap and EMA50 opens the 0.8314 ppi spike high
Break of the 0.8292 higher low and the rising lows trendline ends the compression read
Failure at the 0.8281 london low and 0.8278 asia low prints a fresh window low
Higher lows since 08:30 UTC beneath a 0.8306–0.8314 cap.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound on dovish Fedspeak, flushing to the 0.8278 Asia low before London printed a run of rising lows, the latest a 0.8292 higher low. Price is now pressing the 0.8306 swing high, which sits on the 23.6% post-CPI fib, with the 0.8314 London high above it.
Support: 0.82922, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83059, 0.83135
What it said to watch
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8306 swing high and 23.6% post-CPI fib opens the 0.8314 London high
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.8292 higher low returns focus to the 0.8278 Asia low
12:02 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend stalled, basing in range · RSI 57 · price 0.83033
London range 0.8281–0.8314 above a twin low, higher lows since 08:30 UTC.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound overnight. The pair has based at the 0.8278 Asia low and 0.8281 London low, and the soft Swiss PPI pop to the 0.8314 PPI high capped the London range. Higher lows from 0.8281 are now pressing the 23.6% fib at 0.8306, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.82922, 0.82808, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83059, 0.83135, 0.83243
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8314 PPI high breaks the double bottom neckline and exposes the 0.8324 breakdown area
Rejection at the 0.8306 23.6% fib keeps the London range intact
Loss of the 0.8292 higher low breaks the intraday higher-lows chain
Break below the 0.8278 Asia low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Overnight range 0.8278–0.8314; lower highs vs higher lows.
After the post-CPI unwind from 0.8395 on dovish Fedspeak, USD/CHF is compressing inside the overnight range. The Swiss PPI miss lifted it to the 0.8314 range top at 06:30 UTC, but that high faded to a lower session high at 0.8306, while the 0.8278 asia low and 0.8281 london low held. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR runs about 6–7 pips with roughly an hour until US data.
Support: 0.82922, 0.82808, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83059, 0.83135, 0.8320
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read and expand the range
M15 close above the 0.8314 range top breaks the lower-highs line, with the 0.8320 200h sma pivot next
Failure to hold the 0.8278 asia low confirms a lower low and resumes the post-CPI decline
Holding the 0.8292 pullback low keeps the higher-lows chain from the london low intact
Tightening range 0.8278–0.8314, lower highs vs flat lows.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as USD gave back gains on dovish Fedspeak. The Asia low at 0.8278 and London low at 0.8281 form a tentative double bottom. The soft Swiss PPI lifted the pair to the London high at 0.8314, but a lower high at 0.8306 followed, and price is now pinned under the 0.8300 psych level above a 0.8288 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8314
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~1h, early NY) could break the range in either direction
A close above the 0.8314 London high clears the lower-highs line and completes the double bottom
Failure to hold the 0.8288 swing low exposes the 0.8281 London low and the 0.8278 Asia low
The 0.8395 post-CPI high unwound on dovish Fedspeak into an Asian low at 0.8278. The soft Swiss PPI lifted London open to a 0.8314 London high, but that faded and a second push was rejected at the 23.6% fib near 0.8306. Mid-London, price is coiling between the falling resistance line and a higher low at 0.8288, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8314
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (in ~90 min) could break the coil either way
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 0.8306 and the 0.8314 London high voids the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8288 higher low exposes the 0.8278 Asian low; a break there resumes the lower-low chain
10:46 UTC
Basing after Asian selloff, higher lows forming · RSI 55 · price 0.83021
Range 0.8281–0.8314 inside London, higher low at 0.8288, testing 0.8304 prior high.
Dovish Fedspeak flushed the pair to the 0.8278 Asian low. The soft Swiss PPI spike to the 0.8314 London high at 06:30 UTC met rejection, but the London low at 0.8281 held above it and a higher low at 0.8288 has price back at the 0.8304 prior high, beyond the 61.8% of the London leg.
Support: 0.82882, 0.82808, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83043, 0.83135, 0.83406
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8304 prior high and 0.8314 London high breaks the range and opens the 0.8341 NY shelf
Failure at the 0.8288 higher low puts the 0.8281 London low and 0.8278 Asian low double bottom back in play
Higher lows under 0.8300 cap inside 0.8281–0.8314 range.
Dovish Fedspeak unwinding the hot-CPI rally extended the slide through Asia to a 0.8278 swing low, and the soft Swiss PPI print lifted the pair to the 0.8314 ppi spike high before it faded. The London low at 0.8281 held just above Asia's low. A higher low at 0.8288 now has price pressing the 0.8300 round number, near the 56% retrace of the ppi spike drop.
Support: 0.82882, 0.82808, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83037, 0.83135
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8304 asia high opens the 0.8314 ppi spike high
A break of the 0.8288 higher low exposes the london low at 0.8281
A close below the 0.8278 swing low negates the double bottom read
Lower highs from 0.8314 vs higher low at 0.8288, contracting under 0.8300.
Dovish Fedspeak carried the overnight slide from the 0.8395 post-CPI high to the 0.8278 Asia low. The soft Swiss PPI spike to the 0.8314 ppi high was rejected, and mid-London price is coiling between lower highs and a higher low at 0.8288, capped by the 0.8300 round number. Price sits on EMA20, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.82882, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83135
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 0.8314 ppi high
Break of the 0.8288 higher low exposes the 0.8278 asia low; a close below it resumes the overnight lower-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, around NY open, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Down off post-CPI high, basing above 0.8278 · RSI 44 · price 0.82958
Lower highs from 0.8313 vs higher low at 0.8281; compression below 0.8300.
The post-CPI high near 0.8395 fully unwound on dovish Fedspeak, with Asia printing the 0.8278 low before the Swiss PPI miss spiked the pair to 0.8313, a high that was rejected. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.8288 swing low and the 0.8300 round number, under a descending trendline and near the 50% of the Asia rally fib. Price is hugging EMA20, RSI(14) is neutral at 44, and the London low at 0.8281 is holding above the Asia low.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8300 and the descending trendline reopens the 0.8313 ppi high, then the 0.8324 asia high
Loss of the 0.8288 swing low and the 0.8281 london low puts the 0.8278 asia low in play; a break there confirms a lower low
US Retail Sales, PPI and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Post-CPI selloff, basing in a range · RSI 47 · price 0.82933
0.8278–0.8314 range since Asia; London high rejected, higher low at 0.8281.
Dovish Fedspeak unwound the post-CPI spike to 0.8395. The pair slid to the 0.8278 asian low before London ran the 0.8304 asian high to a 0.8314 london high. That break failed and price dropped to a 0.8281 london low; it now sits mid-range near the 38.2% of the london drop fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8314
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 asian low ends the range read and extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.8304 asian high and a close above the 0.8314 london high would turn the false break into a range break
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Overnight downtrend stalling into a range · RSI 49 · price 0.82975
Lower highs capped under 0.8314, flat lows at 0.8278–0.8281.
The post-CPI spike unwound through the Asia session to a 0.8278 asia low as dovish Fedspeak weighed on USD. The Swiss PPI miss lifted the pair to the 0.8314 ppi spike high, where it was rejected. Early in London, the 0.8281 london low held just above the Asia low, and price now sits at the 50% retrace near 0.8297, under 0.8300 psych, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.82808, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83043, 0.83135
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8304 lower high reopens the 0.8314 ppi spike high
Failure to hold the 0.8281 london low and 0.8278 asia low resumes the overnight downtrend
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound on dovish Fedspeak. The pair bottomed at the 0.8278 asian low. The Swiss PPI miss briefly lifted price to the 0.8314 london high, which was rejected, and the 0.8281 london low has formed a shallow double bottom. Mid-London, price is pressing the 0.8300 round number and the descending line from the london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8304, 0.8314
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8314 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and the range top
Acceptance back above the 0.8300 round number and 0.8304 asian high clears the descending line
Failure to hold the 0.8281 london low and 0.8278 asian low voids the double bottom and confirms a lower-low
US Retail Sales/PPI/claims bundle at 12:30 GMT (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
Asian low 0.8278 then higher London low 0.8281; capped below 0.8313.
The post-CPI fade from 0.8395 bottomed at the 0.8278 Asian low. A Swiss PPI-driven spike met rejection at the 0.8313 Asian high. Early London dipped to a marginally higher low at 0.8281 and is now rebounding into the 0.8300 round number, close to the 23.6% retracement of the fade, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8323
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 Asian high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8323 fib 38.2 in view
Failure to hold the 0.8281 London low and 0.8278 Asian low resumes the post-CPI fade
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT, early NY session, could materially shift this read
The bounce after the soft Swiss PPI print stalled at the 0.8313 London high. A lower high at 0.8304 followed, and price is now back below 0.8300 and retesting the 0.8278 Asian low left by the post-CPI USD unwind. RSI(14) sits near 36 with price below both EMAs, so momentum is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83043, 0.83135
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence from the CPI unwind
Reclaim of the 0.8304 lower high breaks the London sequence of lower highs and puts the 0.8313 london high back in focus
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h45m, NY open) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 41 · price 0.82893
Lower high at 0.8314 after the Asia low at 0.8278; early London back below 0.8300.
Early London faded the Swiss PPI pop. The rejection at the 0.8314 ppi high left a lower high, and price is back below the 0.8300 psych handle and the 0.8304 london high. The bounce retraced only ~30% of the post-CPI slide from 0.8395 as the USD yield unwind holds, and the 0.8283 swing low and 0.8278 session low are now in reach.
Support: 0.82834, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83043, 0.83135
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.8300 psych and the 0.8304 london high puts the lower-highs trendline under test
Break above the 0.8314 ppi high invalidates the lower-high read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.8292 versus 0.8278; capped below 0.8314 in London.
Asia extended the post-CPI USD unwind to an Asian low at 0.8278, then rebounded. The Swiss PPI miss pushed price to a 0.8314 PPI high, but the London open faded it to a 0.8292 London low, a higher low on the session. Price is pivoting at the 0.8300 handle just under the Asian high (0.8304) and the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395–0.8278 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8314
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8314 PPI high opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8323
Break of the 0.8292 London low voids the higher-lows line and puts the 0.8278 Asian low back in play
Repeated stalls at the 0.8304 Asian high keep the 0.8292–0.8314 consolidation intact
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Recovering off overnight low, stalling near 0.8300 · RSI 54 · price 0.83009
Higher lows from 0.8278, capped below 0.8313.
The Asian session extended the post-CPI unwind to a 0.8278 swing low before soft Swiss PPI lifted the pair to a 0.8313 ppi spike. London open rejected below that high, and the 0.8292 london low held near the 61.8% fib. Price is now consolidating around 0.8300 inside a 0.8292–0.8309 London range, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8309, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 london low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.8278 swing low
M15 close above the 0.8309 london high and the 0.8313 ppi spike clears the London-open rejection
US Retail Sales, PPI and Claims at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend from post-CPI high, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 0.82958
Higher lows off Asia low, London-open spike rejected.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound through NY and Asia as US yields fell, bottoming at the 0.8278 Asia low. A pop to the 0.8314 london high on the soft Swiss PPI into London open was rejected below the 38.2% fib of the CPI reversal. Price now sits at 0.8296 under EMA20, holding a higher low at the 0.8292 london low.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8314, 0.8323
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8304 pre-ldn high reopens the 0.8314 london high and the 0.8323 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.8292 london low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.8278 asia low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395; rebound off 0.8278 rejected at 0.8314.
USD/CHF has unwound the whole CPI spike to 0.8395. Treasury yields sank through the Asia session and drove price to a 0.8278 asia low. The soft Swiss PPI lifted price through the 0.8304 pre-ppi high to a 0.8314 ppi high, but the first bars of the London session rejected the move. Price is now sitting on the 0.8296 london low near the 50% level of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8296, 0.8292, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8314, 0.8341
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8296 london low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8292 and the 0.8278 asia low
Recovery back above the 0.8304 pre-ppi high and the 0.8314 ppi high would negate the false break
0.8341 ny base, the post-CPI consolidation floor, is the next cap above 0.8314
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
CPI spike unwound; higher low at 0.8297 after the 0.8278 Asian low.
Yesterday's CPI spike to 0.8395 unwound as yields sank, and the slide ran through Asia to an Asian low at 0.8278. Early London broke above the 0.8300 round number off a higher low at 0.8297 and was capped at the 0.8313 session high. Price is now retesting that break at the 23.6% level of the CPI unwind fib, just under the EMA50.
Support: 0.82965, 0.8300, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83135, 0.83243, 0.8334
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8297 higher low and rising support would resume the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8278 Asian low.
An M15 close above the 0.8313 session high opens the 0.8324 Asian high, then the 0.8334 pre-CPI base.
The US Retail Sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.7h) could materially shift this read.
07:02 UTC
Rebounding off Asia low, below CPI-day structure · RSI 54 · price 0.83056
Post-CPI false break unwound to 0.8278; micro HH/HL recovery into London open.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 was fully unwound as yields sank, and the slide ran through Asia to a 0.8278 asia low. A higher low at 0.8297 and the 0.8313 pre-ldn high have formed a short HH/HL chain into London open. The first London bar is a rejection back to the 23.6% retracement near 0.8305, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and price still below EMA50.
Support: 0.82965, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83135, 0.83226, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 pre-ldn high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8323 and the 0.8330 pre-cpi base
Failure to hold the 0.8297 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and puts the 0.8278 asia low back in play
US Retail Sales/PPI/claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.83001
Lower highs from 0.8395; higher low off 0.8278.
The post-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as US yields reversed, and Asia pushed the slide to a 0.8278 low, below the pre-CPI range. The bounce is stalling at the 0.8304 rebound high, at the 38.2% of the Asia leg off the 0.8350 high, with price pinned near 0.8300 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.82965, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83037, 0.83139, 0.83498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8304 rebound high opens the 50% fib at 0.8314
Break of the 0.8297 pullback low and the rebound line exposes the 0.8278 Asia low
Reclaim of the 0.8350 Asia high would negate the post-CPI unwind read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
CPI spike fully unwound; higher lows off 0.8278, capped at 0.8304.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 failed and fully unwound overnight as USD faded with yields, taking price below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base to a 0.8278 Asian low. A higher-low recovery has stalled at the 0.8304 session high near the 23.6% retrace into London open, with RSI(14) ~67 and price above EMA20 but still under EMA50.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8318, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8304 session high exposes the 0.8318 pivot, near the 38.2% retrace
A return above the 0.8330 pre-CPI base would negate the CPI-unwind read
Loss of the 0.8297 higher low and the recovery line puts the 0.8278 Asian low back in play
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs and lows; shallow bounce off the 0.8278 Asia low.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound as USD faded through NY and Asia, with a lower-low chain down to the 0.8278 Asia low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8304 swing high, just under the 23.6% retracement of the CPI fade fib. Price is now pinned at EMA20 near 0.8299, about an hour before London open.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8312, 0.8323
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8304 swing high and the 0.8312 breakdown area opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8323
Loss of the 0.8290 higher low exposes the 0.8278 Asia low; a break there resumes the lower-low chain
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in late Asia · RSI 59 · price 0.82984
Post-CPI spike fully unwound; lower lows to 0.8278, now a shallow higher-low bounce stalling at 0.8300.
The post-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as USD faded in Asia on lower Treasury yields. Price fell through the pre-CPI low at 0.8319 to a 0.8278 swing low. The bounce off that low built a higher low at 0.8290 but is stalling at the 0.8300 round number, just under the 0.8304 bounce high and the 23.6% fib of the fade, with London open about an hour out.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8319, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8304 bounce high and 23.6% fib opens the pre-CPI low at 0.8319, then the Asian high at 0.8324
Failure to hold the 0.8290 higher low exposes the 0.8278 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI false break unwound; higher lows off the Asian low.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound as yields reversed. Asia extended the slide to the 0.8278 Asian low, well under the 0.8318 pre-CPI base. A late-Asia bounce has printed higher lows off that low and is pressing the 23.6% retrace of the CPI spike near 0.8305 ahead of London open, RSI(14) firm in the low 60s.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8318, 0.8341
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8290 prior cap keeps the asia higher lows sequence intact. A break back below exposes the 0.8278 Asian low.
An M15 close above the 0.8318 pre-CPI base would reclaim part of the breakout, with the 0.8341 NY low next overhead.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read.
Post-CPI spike fully unwound; lower lows into 0.8278, now higher lows off the Asian low.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 in NY was fully reversed overnight. The pair cut through the pre-CPI 0.8330 base and the 0.8312 breakdown shelf as Treasury yields retreated, before the Asian low printed at 0.8278. Late in the Asia session the pair has rebounded about 23 pips into the 0.8301 bounce high, near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8312, 0.8323
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8290 pivot puts the 0.8278 Asian low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 0.8312 breakdown shelf opens a retest of the 38.2% fib at 0.8323
London open in under 2h is the first test of whether the 0.8301 bounce high caps the move
US Retail Sales, PPI and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
The CPI spike has fully reversed. From the 0.8395 NY high, price slid about 117 pips through the Asia session and broke the 0.8330 pre-CPI base as the dollar faded. A late-Asia bounce off the 0.8278 Asia low has printed higher lows near 0.8290 and is now pressing the 0.8300 round number ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8305, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8305 38.2% fib of the Asia selloff would turn the bounce into a deeper retracement toward the 0.8330 pre-CPI base
Loss of the 0.8290 higher low would put the 0.8278 Asia low back in play
Repeated rejection at the 0.8300 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off Asia low · RSI 55 · price 0.82994
Higher lows off 0.8278, testing 0.8300 from below.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 was a false break above the 0.8380 high. It unwound through NY, and the Asia session extended the slide to a 0.8278 session low as the dollar faded. Pre-London, price is printing higher lows off that low and pressing the 0.8300 round number, RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8311, 0.8318
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8311 breakdown area, the 23.6% level of the CPI-high fib near 0.8305, and the 0.8318 200h sma
Failure to hold the 0.8290 pivot puts the 0.8278 session low back in play; a break below it extends the downtrend
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce in progress · RSI 47 · price 0.82955
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395; double bottom at 0.8278.
The entire post-CPI spike to 0.8395 has unwound as USD fades through the Asia session. Price lost the pre-CPI base at 0.8330 and reached an Asian low of 0.8278. A double bottom there has lifted price to the 0.8299 swing high, which sits beside ema20 and the 23.6% fib of the Asian decline.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 swing high extends the bounce toward the 38.2% fib near 0.8305
Failure to hold the 0.8287 neckline voids the double bottom read
A break below the 0.8278 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 0.8330 pre-cpi base would negate the CPI-fade structure
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing near Asian low · RSI 38 · price 0.82905
Post-CPI spike fully unwound; lower highs into a tight late-Asia box.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully reversed. USD/CHF slid through the pre-CPI base near 0.8330 after NY hours and extended through Asia to an Asian low at 0.8278, a sharper fade than the digest's 'slight' Asian pullback. Late in the Asia session price is boxed between 0.8278 and the swing high at 0.8299, just under EMA20, with a minor higher low at 0.8283.
Support: 0.8283, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8306, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 Asian low extends the lower-low chain.
Loss of the 0.8283 higher low returns price to the box floor.
M15 close above the 0.8299 swing high and the fib 23.6 at 0.8306 of the CPI fade would shift the read to a basing pattern.
London open is the first test of the late-Asia box.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, about 8h out, could materially shift this read. The pre-CPI base at 0.8330 is the upper reference.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 post-CPI high; tight base at 0.8278–0.8287 late in the Asia session.
The hot US CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound. Price slid off the 0.8341 NY base, and the Asia session pushed it through the pre-CPI base at 0.8317 to a 0.8278 session low, a false break of the post-CPI range high. Price is now compressing in a 0.8278–0.8287 band under the 0.8299 lower high, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) around 7 pips as the London open approaches.
Support: 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8317, 0.8341
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8299 lower high breaks the micro lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 0.8317 pre-cpi base (near the fib 38.2% at 0.8323) would negate the post-CPI fade
Failure to hold the 0.8278 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (in about 8h) could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing in late Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.8284
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 post-CPI peak; flat 0.8278–0.8286 base off the session low.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound through NY and Asia despite the USD-bid backdrop. The pair cut through the 0.8317 pre-CPI low, leaving the breakout as a false break. Late Asia is basing just above the 0.8278 session low, under the 0.8299 lower high, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain and opens the 23.6% post-CPI fib near 0.8306.
Reclaim of the 0.8317 pre-CPI low would neutralise the false break read.
Failure to hold the 0.8278 session low extends the sequence toward the 0.8250 round number.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; London open lands first.
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into late Asia · RSI 29 · price 0.82848
Lower highs and lower lows since post-CPI peak; pre-CPI base lost.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound. A NY-afternoon reversal was followed by a steady Asia-session slide that broke the 0.8315 pre-cpi base and printed an asian low at 0.8278, with RSI(14) near 29. Late in the Asia session, price is basing just above that low, while the 0.8299 lower high caps the bounce ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.82779, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82991, 0.8315
What it said to watch
Failure to clear the 0.8299 lower high keeps the Asia-session lower-high chain intact
M15 close below the 0.8278 asian low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Recovery into the 0.8315 pre-cpi base and the 38.2% cpi spike retrace at 0.8323 would mark a deeper rebound
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into late Asia · RSI 27 · price 0.82836
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.8395, below pre-CPI base.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as Treasury yields reversed. The Asia session extended the slide through yesterday's 0.8317 prior low to a 0.8278 session low, with RSI(14) near 27. Price is pressing the descending trendline from 0.8350, and the 0.8299 lower high caps the chain.
Support: 0.82779, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82991, 0.8317, 0.83406
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 0.8317 prior low (pre-CPI base) opens the path to the 0.8341 post-cpi low
Failure to hold the 0.8278 session low leaves 0.8250 psych as the next reference
London open in ~3.5h could reset the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.82801
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session; post-CPI breakout fully unwound.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully reversed. The Asia session sold steadily below the 0.8317 pre-CPI low and printed a session low at 0.8278, with a descending trendline capping each lower high. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and the pair is now below the zone the CHF digest flags as negating the breakout.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8317
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8299 lower high breaks the trendline sequence
Reclaim of 0.8317 pre-cpi low (38.2% of the CPI spike unwind) would put the breakdown in doubt
Failure to hold the 0.8278 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
London open in ~4h may set a new range off the Asia lows
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.82801
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; CPI breakout fully reversed.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound. The push above the 0.8365 range top proved a false break, and the decline extended in late Asia through the 0.8317 200h SMA to a fresh asia low at 0.8278, with each bounce capped by the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 21 is deeply oversold, and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8317, 0.8337
What it said to watch
Lower-high chain stays intact while price holds below the 0.8299 swing high. Reclaiming the trendline and the 0.8317 200h SMA would challenge the reversal read.
A break of the 0.8278 asia low exposes the 0.8250 round number.
The 50% fib at 0.8337 marks the midpoint of the post-CPI decline; any rebound stalling below it keeps the downtrend read.
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~9.7h) could materially shift this read.
London open (~07:00 UTC) is the first test of the Asian range.
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending through Asia · RSI 25 · price 0.82911
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI high; pre-CPI base lost.
The hot US CPI spike to 0.8395 failed late in NY hours. Asia has unwound the whole move, cutting through the 0.8330 pre-CPI base and the 0.8317 prior low to a 0.8283 swing low. Lower highs sit on a descending trendline, RSI(14) is near 25, and a long lower wick at the swing low is the only sign of demand.
Support: 0.8283, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8317, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8283 swing low and the 0.8280 round number extends the Asia downtrend
Reclaiming the 0.8317 prior low and the 0.8330 pre-CPI base would undercut the CPI false break read
London open in ~4h could expand the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 17 · price 0.8284
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; full post-CPI spike unwound.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as yields faded. The Asian session extended the slide from the 0.8350 Asian high through the 0.8317 pre-CPI low and the 0.8300 round number to a session low at 0.8283. Lower highs at 0.8350, 0.8324 and 0.8299 define a clean descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold.
Support: 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Recovery to the 0.8317 pre-cpi low, near the 50% retracement of the Asian leg, is the first reclaim test
A fresh print below the 0.8283 session low extends the lower-low chain
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~10h away) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 0.82969
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 post-CPI high; pre-CPI range low broken.
The US CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as Treasury yields faded. Price slid through the pre-CPI low at 0.8317 and then below the 0.8300 round number during the Asia session, turning the breakout into a false break. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and a small bounce is coming off the 0.8289 session low, with the 38.2% fib of the drop sitting near 0.8330.
Support: 0.82894
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.83406
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number eases the oversold pressure; reclaiming the pre-cpi low at 0.8317 negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8289 session low confirms another lower low
Post-cpi low at 0.8341 caps any bounce in the 50% fib area
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after full CPI reversal · RSI 21 · price 0.82969
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below the pre-CPI base.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully unwound as yields faded off their post-data highs. The Asia session extended the slide through the 0.8317 prior low to a 0.8289 session low. RSI(14) is near 21, and price is pressing the Asia trendline and the 0.8300 round number after a small bounce.
Support: 0.82894
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.8340
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.8300 and the Asia trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8289 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 0.8317 prior low opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8330 and the 0.8340 pre-CPI base
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10.5h) could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 16 · price 0.82932
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; full CPI spike unwound.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 failed and has fully unwound. Asia sold off from 0.8350 through the pre-CPI low at 0.8300 and yesterday's low at 0.8317 to a session low at 0.8290, as the dollar fades with yields off their highs. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold under a steep falling trendline.
Support: 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.83406
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8290 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above 0.8300 pre-CPI low, then the falling trendline, would ease the downside structure
Reclaim of yday low at 0.8317 puts the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI drop and the 0.8341 NY low back in view
US PPI/Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 0.82932
CPI spike fully reversed, Asia lower-high chain below pre-CPI low.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 failed in NY as yields reversed. Asia then extended the slide through the 0.8317 pre-CPI low and the 0.8300 round number to a session low at 0.8290. RSI(14) near 19 is oversold after an unbroken run of lower highs since 23:00 UTC.
Support: 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8290 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number would be the first sign of a pause
Return above the 0.8317 pre-cpi low and 0.8330 fib 38.2 shifts the read to a corrective bounce
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims cluster Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI spike fully unwound; lower highs and lower lows through Asia.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully reversed despite the USD-supportive backdrop. NY-session selling broke the 0.8341 NY low, and early Asia extended the slide through the 0.8317 pre-CPI low to a 0.8304 session low. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold, but the lower-high sequence from the 0.8350 Asia high is intact.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8341, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.8317 pre-CPI low keeps the post-CPI breakout negated; reclaiming it shifts the read toward a range between 0.8317 and 0.8341
A break of the 0.8300 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the 0.8304 session low
Only a recovery above the 0.8341 NY low and the 0.8350 Asia high, near the 38.2–50% retracement of the post-CPI selloff, breaks the intraday downtrend
The Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales bundle could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 14 · price 0.83048
CPI spike fully reversed; lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session.
The hot US CPI spike to 0.8395 failed during NY hours and unwound to the 0.8340 ny low. Asia session selling then broke the 0.8317 prior low and printed a 0.8304 session low. RSI(14) near 14 is deeply oversold, ATR is about 6 pips, and the 0.8300 round number sits just below.
Support: 0.83038, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8340
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 0.8317 prior low would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the session low
A return above the 0.8340 ny low, near the 38.2% CPI spike fib, would neutralise the selloff structure
The Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales bundle could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 14 · price 0.83115
CPI spike fully unwound; Asia lower highs and lower lows into new window low.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 proved a false break. It reversed as yields turned in late NY, and the Asia session extended the slide through the prior low at 0.8317 to a session low at 0.8310, below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base. RSI(14) near 14 is deeply oversold after a steady chain of lower highs since the Asian open, with the post-CPI retrace now complete.
Support: 0.8310, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8330, 0.8341
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.8317 prior low keeps the CPI breakout negated, in line with the 0.8315–0.8320 zone flagged in the digest
A recovery above the 0.8330 pre-cpi base reopens the 0.8341 ny low from the late-NY reversal
Losing the 0.8310 session low exposes the 0.8300 round number
US PPI, retail sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
CPI spike fully unwound; lower highs and lower lows into early Asia, new window low at 0.8311.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 failed and has now fully retraced. NY reversed the move, and the slide extended through the Asian open, breaking Wednesday's asian low at 0.8317 and the 0.8320–0.8315 zone the digest flags as negating the breakout. The pair printed a 0.8311 session low, with RSI(14) near 15 deeply oversold.
Support: 0.83113, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8330, 0.83406
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 0.8317 asian low keeps the lower-low sequence intact, with the 0.8300 round number next below the 0.8311 session low
A recovery above the 0.8330 pre-cpi low and the lower highs line would mark the selloff stalling; the 0.8340 ny low caps above
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 17 · price 0.8316
CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound; lower highs, price testing day low.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully reversed, with lower highs since the NY afternoon turning the post-CPI breakout into a false break. A ~35-pip Asia session slide from the 0.8350 Asia high has pushed price back to the 0.8316 day low, below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base, with RSI(14) deeply oversold near 17.
Support: 0.8316, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8341, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8316 day low sets a fresh lower-low, with the 0.8300 round number next
Recovery above the 0.8330 pre-CPI base would mark the day-low test as a rejection
Lower-highs trendline (~0.8335) and the 0.8341 NY low cap any bounce below the 0.8350 Asia high
US PPI / retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
The whole post-CPI leg to 0.8395 has unwound. Selling sped up through late NY and the rollover and has carried price to a fresh window low at 0.8316 as the Asia session opens, below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base even though the hot print supports USD. Lower highs at the 0.8341 NY low and the 0.8350 rollover high frame the slide, and RSI(14) near 18 is stretched.
Support: 0.8316, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8341, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8330 pre-CPI base would turn the breakdown into a return to the pre-data range.
Acceptance below the 0.8316 window low exposes the 0.8300 round number. The digest flags a hold under 0.8320-0.8315 (200-hour SMA) as negating the CPI breakout.
Reclaim of the 0.8341 NY low and the 0.8350 rollover high breaks the lower-high sequence.
The US Retail Sales/PPI/claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read.