USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 17 · price 0.83287
CPI spike fully unwound; lower highs since the 0.8395 peak.
The hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 has fully round-tripped. USD/CHF lost the 0.8340 NY low after rollover and is now slipping through the 0.8330 pre-CPI base early in the Asia session. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold, with yesterday's 0.8317 Asian low directly below and lower highs capping since the 0.8353 bounce high.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8340, 0.8353
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low would put price under the 0.8320-0.8315 zone the digest flags as negating the CPI breakout, exposing the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8330 pre-CPI base and the 0.8340 NY low would break the lower highs line and mark the slide as overextended
Only a move back above the 0.8353 bounce high changes the lower-highs structure
US Retail Sales/PPI/claims cluster Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.8395 NY peak; post-CPI low broken in early Asia.
The hot-CPI break above the 0.8365 range top has failed. Price has sold off from the 0.8395 NY peak and broken the 0.8341 post-CPI low in early Asia, putting it about 85% down the CPI rally fib near 0.8335 with RSI(14) near 29. The pre-CPI base at 0.8330 is the next test, with Tuesday's Asia low at 0.8317 below, close to the 0.8320–0.8315 area the digest flags as negating the breakout.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8353, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8341 post-CPI low and the lower-high line would ease the downtrend read
Recovery through the 0.8353 bounce high is needed to break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8330 pre-CPI base exposes the 0.8317 Asia low and completes a full CPI round trip
0.8380 cpi spike hi is the level that would revive the breakout structure
US Retail Sales / PPI / claims cluster at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395 NY peak; NY low broken in early Asia.
The hot US CPI break above the 0.8365 range top has round-tripped. Lower highs off the 0.8395 NY peak track the fade line, and the 0.8341 NY low gave way in early Asia, leaving price about 90% back through the CPI spike fib with RSI(14) near 29. The 0.8330 pre-CPI base is the next reference, with the 0.8317 Williams low below.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.8341 NY low and the 0.8350 bounce high would break the lower-high chain along the fade line
M15 close below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base exposes the 0.8317 Williams low and fully negates the CPI breakout
Return above the 0.8365 range top would revive the post-CPI breakout read
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read; thin Asia session trade until then
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 NY high, now near the pre-CPI base.
The hot-CPI push through the 0.8365 range top has failed. Price slid from the 0.8395 NY high back below the 78.6% of the CPI leg as yields reversed, and early Asia has printed a fresh session low at 0.8336, just above the 0.8330 pre-CPI low. Lower highs from the 0.8353 bounce high are capping recoveries, the broken low at 0.8341 sits overhead and RSI(14) is near 27.
Support: 0.8336, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8353, 0.8365
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8365 range top would revive the CPI breakout read
Failure to hold the 0.8330 pre-CPI low completes a full retrace of the CPI leg and exposes the 0.8317 asia low (200-hour SMA zone)
Reclaiming the 0.8341 broken low and the lower highs trendline would signal the fade is stalling
The Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY afternoon peak; testing swing low early Asia.
The hot-CPI spike to the 0.8395 CPI high has fully reversed. The failed hold above the 0.8365 range top marks a false break, and price is back beyond the 78.6% retrace of the CPI move. Early Asia is pressing the 0.8340 swing low under a lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8340 swing low exposes the 0.8330 pre-cpi base, then the 0.8317 Asia low
Reclaim of the 0.8353 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would ease the downside structure; 0.8365 range top sits above
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read back toward the 0.8395 CPI high
Tight consolidation 0.8341–0.8353 after 84% retrace of CPI spike.
The hot US CPI spike to the 0.8395 cpi high failed to hold. The late-NY slide retraced about 84% of the CPI spike to a 0.8341 swing low as USD momentum faded. Early Asia session is compressing in a 12-pip consolidation below the 0.8353 range top, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8366, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8341 swing low opens the 0.8330 cpi origin, with the digest's 0.8320–0.8315 zone beneath
M15 close above the 0.8353 range top puts the 0.8366 lower high back in focus
IMF meeting at 00:00 UTC, then US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI spike fully faded; lower high at 0.8353 after the 0.8341 NY low, compressing into Asia.
Hot US CPI lifted USDCHF from the 0.8330 pre-CPI base to 0.8395. The move unwound in late NY to a 0.8341 NY low, leaving a false break of the 0.8365 range top. Price is now ranging 0.8343–0.8353 into the Asia session open, capped at the bounce high (23.6% of the post-CPI leg), with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8365 range top would put the cpi bar high at 0.8380 back in play and negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.8341 NY low exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI base, then 0.8320-0.8315
Bounce high / 23.6% fib at 0.8353 caps the Asian range; a break above it shifts the read toward a deeper retracement
IMF meeting at 00:00 UTC, then US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low to a 0.8395 CPI high. The NY afternoon slide then gave back most of that move, reaching a 0.8341 post-CPI low back below the 0.8365 range top. Price is drifting at 0.8346 near the 78.6% level of the CPI leg fib in thin post-rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 0.8353 bounce high capping rebounds.
Support: 0.83406, 0.83299, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83534, 0.83662, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8366 range top would revive the CPI breakout read; 0.8395 CPI high above that
Failure to hold the 0.8341 post-CPI low exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low, below which the CPI move is fully unwound toward the 0.8317 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.8353 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence from the NY afternoon slide
US PPI and retail sales on Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395, tight 0.8341–0.8353 consolidation into rollover.
Hot US CPI drove a 50-pip spike from the 0.8330 pre-CPI base to the 0.8395 CPI high. That breakout above the 0.8366 range top failed in late NY: price slid to the 0.8341 post-CPI low, just past the 78.6% retrace of the CPI rally. Since then it has held a thin 0.8341–0.8353 box under the bounce high, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8366, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8341 post-CPI low opens the 0.8330 pre-CPI base, then the 0.8317 asian low (digest's 0.8320–0.8315 negation zone)
Reclaim of the 0.8353 bounce high and the post-CPI downtrend line shifts focus back to the 0.8366 range top
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read; thin rollover liquidity until Asia session builds
Lower highs from 0.8395, tight base 0.8341–0.8353.
Hot US CPI lifted USD/CHF from 0.8330 to a 0.8395 NY high, but the CPI spike unwound from mid-NY and price is back below the 0.8365 range top, sitting just above the 78.6% fib after a low at 0.8341. The recovery stalled at the 0.8353 bounce high near the 61.8% level, with RSI(14) near 31 and trade thin after the NY close into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.83406, 0.83381, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.83534, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8341 NY low and the 0.8338 London high exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low and a full retrace of the CPI spike
Recovery above the 0.8353 bounce high and back over the 0.8365 range top would revive the breakout read toward the 0.8395 NY high
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 GMT (~15h), plus Fed speaker tone on an October hike, could materially shift this read
Failed breakout, late-NY consolidation above NY low.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT drove USDCHF through the 0.8338 London high and the 0.8365 range top to a 0.8395 cpi high mid-NY. The pair then unwound from 17:00 GMT to a 0.8341 NY low, about 84% of the CPI leg. Late NY is now holding a tight 0.8343–0.8353 box below the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 0.83406, 0.83381, 0.83299
Resistance: 0.83534, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8341 NY low exposes the london high at 0.8338, then the 0.8330 pre-cpi low; trading below that low fully negates the CPI breakout
Recovery above the 0.8353 bounce high and the 61.8% fib reopens the 0.8365 range top
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395, basing above 0.8341 in late NY.
The hot US CPI print drove a 65-pip spike from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low to a 0.8395 CPI high, but the move unwound in the NY afternoon through a run of lower highs. Price slipped back below the 0.8365 range top to a 0.8341 post-CPI low and is now basing in late NY, capped at the 0.8353 bounce high near the 23.6% of the post-CPI fade, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8365 range top restores the CPI breakout read
Failure to hold the 0.8341 post-CPI low exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low, then the 0.8317 Asia low
Clearing the 0.8353 bounce high opens the 38.2% of the post-CPI fade near 0.8361
Reclaiming the 0.8395 CPI high would negate the post-CPI fade
Fed speaker tone on an October hike and US PPI / retail sales (Thu 12:30 GMT, ~16h away) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since the 0.8395 high, now basing 0.8341–0.8353 late NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8330 pre-cpi base to a 0.8395 cpi high. That spike has since been almost fully unwound in late NY, through the 0.8366 breakdown level to a 0.8341 post-cpi low. Price is now compressing between that low and the 0.8353 bounce high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.83406, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83534, 0.8395
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8353 bounce high puts the 0.8366 breakdown level in play, where the 38.2–50% post-CPI fade fib sits at 0.8361–0.8368
Failure to hold the 0.8341 post-cpi low exposes the 0.8330 pre-cpi base, then the 0.8317 asian low
A return below the 0.8317 asian low would leave the CPI breakout fully negated
Low-liquidity transition into the Asia session may keep the 0.8341–0.8353 band intact
US PPI and Retail Sales, Thu 12:30 GMT (~16h), could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday down after failed post-CPI spike · RSI 38 · price 0.83477
Lower highs from 0.8395, basing above 0.8341 session low.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8330 pre-CPI base to a 0.8395 CPI high. Late-NY selling then gave back about 85% of that move to a 0.8341 session low, below the 78.6% post-CPI fib. Price is now consolidating under the 0.8353 bounce high after NY close, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8366, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8341 session low opens the 0.8330 pre-CPI base and a full retrace of the CPI move.
Loss of 0.8330 exposes the 0.8317 Asian low, near the 0.8320-0.8315 zone the CHF digest flags as negating the breakout.
Reclaim of the 0.8353 bounce high, then the 0.8366 breakdown level, would ease the rejection read.
A return to the 0.8395 CPI high would need a renewed USD bid.
Fed speaker headlines overnight and Thursday's 12:30 GMT US PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read.
The hot US core CPI lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low to a 0.8395 CPI high. Late in the NY session the pair fell back below the 0.8380 prior high and the 0.8366 breakdown level, erasing about 84% of the spike. Price is now basing just above the 0.8341 NY low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 0.83406, 0.83299
Resistance: 0.8395
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8366 breakdown level would weaken the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.8341 NY low exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low and the 0.8320-0.8315 zone
A lower high below 0.8366 would extend the sequence of lower highs from the 0.8395 CPI high
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Failed breakout above 0.8365-0.8380, lower highs into late NY, basing near 0.8340.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove USD/CHF from the 0.8330 pre-CPI base through the 0.8365 range top to a session high of 0.8395. Supply took over after London close and the move has unwound about 80% of the CPI leg, a false break. Price is now holding the 0.8341 post-CPI low near the 78.6% retracement, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8341 post-cpi low exposes the 0.8330 pre-cpi base and the 0.8317 asian low near the 0.8320-0.8315 zone, which the digest flags as negating the CPI breakout
A reclaim of the 0.8350 bounce high, then a close back above the 0.8365 range top, would weaken the false break read
Rejection near the 0.8395 session high defined the top. Only a return there reopens the breakout
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 CPI high; back near the pre-CPI base.
Hot US CPI pushed the pair through the 0.8381 London high to a 0.8395 CPI high, but that break failed. Late NY, into and through the Beige Book, a chain of lower highs took price back below the 0.8365 range top to a 0.8341 NY low. RSI(14) is near 27, and price is under both EMAs, just above the 0.8330 pre-CPI base.
Support: 0.83406, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8365, 0.8381, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8330 pre-CPI base exposes the 0.8317 Asia low and the 0.8315–0.8320 zone that negates the CPI breakout
Reclaim of the 0.8365 range top and the descending line would challenge the lower-high sequence; 0.8381 London high sits above
Fed speaker reaction to CPI and the Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI/retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
False break above range top, lower-high sequence since 0.8395 peak.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/CHF through the range top to 0.8395 in early NY trade. That gain has since unwound through late NY hours, leaving price at the session low near 0.8341, on the 78.6% fib of the CPI leg, with RSI(14) near 30. A lower-high line from 0.8391 is capping bounces, with the 0.8350 minor high just overhead.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8366, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8330 pre-cpi low erases the CPI move and exposes the 0.8317 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8366 range top needed to repair the false break; 0.8380 prior high sits above
M15 close above the lower-high line and the 0.8350 minor high ends the sequence of lower highs
Fed speaker reaction to CPI and Thursday's 12:30 GMT PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395 double top, about 70% of the CPI leg retraced.
Hot US CPI drove a 65-pip leg from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low to the 0.8395 day high, clearing the 0.8380 CPI bar high. That double top then gave way in late NY, and price has unwound about 70% of the move. It now sits below the 61.8% fib at 0.8355 on a lower-highs sequence, with RSI(14) near 32 and the London high at 0.8338 the next reference below.
Support: 0.8338, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8355, 0.8380, 0.8395
What it said to watch
A close back above the fib 61.8 at 0.8355 eases the lower-highs read; the 0.8380 CPI bar high caps above that
A break of the London high at 0.8338 exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low, a full unwind of the CPI leg
Loss of 0.8330 puts the 0.8317 Asian low in play, near the 0.8320–0.8315 zone that negates the CPI breakout
Fed speaker reaction to CPI and Thursday's 12:30 GMT PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Late-NY lower-high sequence after rejection at 0.8395 CPI high.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a 65-pip leg from the 0.8330 cpi low to the 0.8395 cpi high. After London close the pair printed lower highs, broke the 0.8378 range floor and slid to a 0.8354 session low as the Beige Book crossed. That leaves roughly 62% of the CPI leg retraced, with price below EMA20 and under the 0.8366 bounce high.
Support: 0.8354, 0.8338, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.8366, 0.8378, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8354 session low exposes the 78.6% retracement at 0.8344 and the 0.8338 pre-cpi high
Loss of the 0.8330 cpi low would erase the CPI breakout entirely
Recovery above the 0.8366 bounce high and 0.8378 range floor breaks the late-NY downtrend line; 0.8395 cpi high remains the cap
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI / retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Rejection from 0.8395 high, testing 50% of CPI move.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CHF from 0.8330 through the 0.8365 range top to a 0.8395 session high. Late NY brought a sharp rejection that unwound half the CPI move to a 0.8360 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 31. Price is back below the range top, holding the 50% retrace and EMA50.
Support: 0.8360, 0.8355, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8365, 0.8378, 0.8395
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8365 range top restores the breakout read, with the CPI base at 0.8378 next. Failure there leaves the rejection intact.
A break of the 0.8360 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8355, then the pre-CPI high at 0.8338.
Beige Book (18:00 GMT) wording and Fed speaker reaction could extend the late-NY swing.
The Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales cluster could materially shift this read.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 45-pip breakout through the London high at 0.8338 and extended to a 0.8395 NY high by 15:00 GMT. Rejection there left a lower high at 0.8391. Late NY-session selling then broke the 0.8367 post-cpi low, and price is holding the 50% fib at the 0.8360 swing low, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.8360, 0.8355, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8367, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, landing on the current bar, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8355 61.8% fib exposes the London high at 0.8338, the pre-CPI breakout level
Recovery back above the 0.8367 post-cpi low reopens the 0.8395 NY high
Thursday 12:30 GMT US Retail Sales/PPI is the next scheduled driver of the CPI move
17:46 UTC
Post-CPI impulse up, now in sharp pullback · RSI 51 · price 0.83672
Lower highs since the 0.8395 NY high, 0.8378 shelf broken.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 50-pip break through the 0.8338 london high to a 0.8395 post-cpi hi by 15:00 GMT. NY then printed a lower high at 0.8391 before the last two bars sliced through the 0.8378 shelf to 0.8366, retracing to between the 38.2% and fib 50% levels of the CPI move as RSI(14) cooled to around 51.
Support: 0.8362, 0.8355, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8379, 0.8391, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8362 fib 50% opens the fib 61.8% at 0.8355, then the london high at 0.8338
Reclaim of the 0.8379 breakdown level neutralises the pullback; the lower-high trendline from 0.8395 caps above
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read in the next few bars
17:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back · RSI 46 · price 0.83783
Lower highs off 0.8395 session high, retesting breakout zone.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a breakout through the 0.8380 17m high, extending to a 0.8395 session high at 15:00. Since then a lower high at 0.8391 and a slip back under 0.8380 have price retesting the 0.8377 swing low after London close, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.83774, 0.8373, 0.83672
Resistance: 0.8380, 0.83909, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8373 cpi floor exposes the 0.8367 spike low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8370
Reclaim of the 0.8391 lower high breaks the pullback sequence, with the 0.8395 session high next
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout consolidating 0.8382–0.8395 under a lower high.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CHF about 50 pips in one bar, out of the 0.8317–0.8338 Asian and London range. The pair set a session high at 0.8395 during NY hours. Late NY trade has drifted between the 0.8382 pullback low and a 0.8391 lower high, sitting near the 23.6% fib of the CPI leg, with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 0.83819, 0.8373, 0.8365
Resistance: 0.83909, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.8382 pullback low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.8373 post-CPI low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8370
A return below the 0.8365 range top would undercut the CPI breakout
A close above the 0.8391 lower high reopens the 0.8395 session high
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 50-pip impulse through the 0.8380 prior high, and the NY session extended to a 0.8395 session high at 15:00 GMT. Late NY has printed a lower high at 0.8391, but the 0.8382 swing low and the rising trendline from the cpi low at 0.8373 are holding. RSI(14) has eased toward 67 and ATR is back near 5-6 pips.
Support: 0.8382, 0.8380, 0.8373
Resistance: 0.8391, 0.8395
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8382 swing low puts the 0.8380 prior high retest in play
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8373 cpi low would undercut the post-CPI higher-low chain
Close above the 0.8391 lower high and 0.8395 session high resumes the breakout leg
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 68 · price 0.83863
Post-CPI breakout, higher highs and higher lows above the old range.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the pair out of the 0.8317–0.8338 Asia/London range in a single ~50-pip bar, clearing the 0.8365 range top and the 0.8380 17-month high. NY session set a session high at 0.8395. The pullback held the 0.8382 swing low above the post-cpi trendline, with RSI(14) near 68 and the higher-low chain intact.
Support: 0.8382, 0.8373, 0.8365
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8395 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8382 swing low breaks the post-cpi trendline; loss of the 0.8373 post-cpi low exposes the 0.8365 range top and the 38.2% retrace
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales are the next scheduled volatility risk
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove USD/CHF ~50 pips out of the 0.8330–0.8338 London range, below the London high, and through the 0.8380 area to a 0.8395 session high. The pullback after London close held the 0.8382 pullback low, leaving it shallow, inside the 23.6% fib of the CPI leg. RSI(14) has eased to ~67.
Support: 0.83819, 0.83672, 0.83381
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8382 pullback low opens the post-CPI low at 0.8367 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8370.
An M15 close above the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play.
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift this read if its tone on prices departs from the CPI signal.
A return below the London high at 0.8338 would negate the CPI breakout.
HH/HL chain since CPI breakout, shallow pullback off NY session high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 50-pip impulse through the 0.8338 London ceiling, the 0.8365 range top and the 0.8380 17-month high. NY hours then built higher lows to a 0.8395 session high. Price is now easing back to the 0.8382 swing low, with RSI(14) near 69 and cooling.
Support: 0.8382, 0.8373, 0.8365
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8382 swing low breaks the post-CPI HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8373 higher low
Return under the 0.8365 range top (near the 38.2% of the CPI impulse fib) negates the breakout read
Close above the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a ~45-pip breakout above the 0.8300–0.8338 London range, and NY hours extended the CPI leg to a 0.8395 session high. Price has since eased to 0.8386 after London close, RSI(14) cooling to ~68. The 0.8382 pullback low holds above the 23.6% retrace and the cpi base at 0.8373.
Support: 0.8382, 0.8377, 0.8373
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8377 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the cpi base at 0.8373
Acceptance above the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in view
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift this read if its tone undercuts the CPI repricing
A drop below 0.8370 retraces 38.2% of the CPI leg and weakens the breakout read
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a 50-pip jump through the London high at 0.8338 and the 0.8380 area. NY hours then extended the move to a session high at 0.8395. Post-CPI lows near 0.8378 have held along a rising trendline, and RSI(14) at 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 0.8378, 0.8370, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8378 post-cpi low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 retracement near 0.8370
A move through the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift the read on USD after CPI
A slide back below the 0.8338 london high would mark a failed breakout
Higher-low chain since the CPI spike, session high at 0.8395.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC drove a ~50-pip bar out of the 0.8317–0.8338 Asia/London range and through the 0.8365 range top. Since then the NY session has held a higher-low chain off the 0.8367 cpi low along the post-CPI trendline, reaching a session high at 0.8395. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme for an impulse leg.
Support: 0.8384, 0.8378, 0.8367
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the post-CPI trendline near 0.8384 breaks the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8378 higher low exposes the 0.8367 cpi low, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI impulse
A close above the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
The London close and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift this read
HH/HL chain since CPI spike, pressing session high.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a roughly 44-pip impulse out of the 0.8330–0.8338 London range, clearing the 0.8350/0.8365 range highs in a single bar. During the NY session price has built higher lows at 0.8373 and 0.8377 and is now pressing the 0.8389 session high, just above the 17m high near 0.8380. RSI(14) is at 76, hot but not extreme.
Support: 0.8380, 0.83775, 0.83672
Resistance: 0.83887, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8377 higher low breaks the post-CPI HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 0.8380 17m high puts the 0.8367 cpi low and the 38.2% retrace of the CPI impulse back in view
Acceptance above the session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, then Thursday's PPI and retail sales, could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT produced a 50-pip impulse that cleared the London high at 0.8338 and the 0.8365 range top. Since then the NY session has printed higher lows off the 0.8367 post-CPI low and is pressing a new session high at 0.8389. RSI(14) is near 80, stretched after the impulse.
Support: 0.8377, 0.8367, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8389, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8389 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Break below the 0.8377 higher lows breaks the post-CPI trendline
Failure to hold 0.8367 post-CPI low opens a deeper fib retrace toward the 0.8338 London high
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the Fed-hike read behind the CPI move
Impulsive breakout from London range, tight NY consolidation 0.8373–0.8387.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 44-pip breakout out of the 0.8330–0.8338 London range. It cleared the 0.8365 range top. NY hours have since held a tight band between the 0.8373 post-CPI low and the 0.8387 session high. RSI(14) is cooling from the low 80s to ~73, and the 0.8367 spike low sits just above the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib.
Support: 0.8373, 0.8367, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.83865, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
M15 close below the 0.8373 post-CPI low exposes the 0.8367 spike low and the 38.2% CPI leg fib near 0.8365
Close above the 0.8387 session high extends the breakout toward the 0.8400 round number
Return below the 0.8338 London high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
The US core CPI beat at 12:30 GMT drove a roughly 45-pip bar through the 0.8338 london high and the 0.8317–0.8338 Asia-to-London range. In early NY hours the pair is holding a 0.8373–0.8387 band above the post-cpi low and spike low. The 0.83865 cpi high has rejected price twice, with RSI(14) near 79 and ATR(14) roughly doubled to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.8373, 0.8367, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.83865, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83865 cpi high extends the breakout toward the 0.8400 round number
Break of the 0.8373 post-cpi low (23.6% of the CPI leg fib) exposes the 0.8367 spike low
Failure below the spike low opens a deeper retrace of the CPI leg toward the 0.8338 london high
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift the post-CPI read
Breakout above London range, higher lows since the CPI bar.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a roughly 45-pip impulse through the 0.8338 London high and out of the 0.8350–0.8365 range. NY trade has since built higher lows off the 0.8373 pullback low and printed a fresh session high at 0.83865, with RSI(14) near 79 and price holding above the 0.8380 CPI spike high.
Support: 0.8380, 0.8373, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.83865, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8373 pullback low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8358 50% level of the CPI leg fib
Rejection at the 0.83865 session high with RSI(14) pushing past 80 would mark a stall below the 0.8400 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8380 CPI spike high turns the 0.8373–0.8380 band into the immediate test
Return below the 0.8338 London high would mark the CPI move as a false break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT could materially shift this read
Breakout above Asian and London ranges, higher lows since 12:30 GMT.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT drove a 50-pip CPI leg out of the 0.8317–0.8338 Asia/London range, through the 0.8350 prior cap and the 0.8380 17-month high. Early NY session is printing higher lows at 0.8367 and 0.8373 and is pressing the 0.83865 session high, with RSI(14) near 82 and stretched.
Support: 0.8373, 0.8367, 0.8350
Resistance: 0.83865, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8373 higher low and the 0.8367 post-cpi low would break the NY session higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 0.8350 prior cap would mark the CPI move as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.83865 session high brings the 0.8400 round number into play
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Stretched USD positioning flagged in the digest; a 38.2% retrace of the CPI leg sits near 0.8365
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-CPI leg · RSI 81 · price 0.83792
Range break above London high, tight NY hold below CPI high.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 45-pip impulse through the 0.8338 London high and the 0.8350 range cap. Early NY session is holding a tight band above the 0.8373 post-CPI low, just under the 0.8384 CPI high. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched, and ATR has expanded to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.8373, 0.83672, 0.83381
Resistance: 0.83838, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Clearance of the 0.8384 CPI high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
M15 close below the 0.8373 post-CPI low exposes the 0.8367 spike low and the 50% of the CPI leg near 0.8357
A retrace back into the 0.8338 London high would mean the CPI breakout has fully faded
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the CPI move
CPI breakout above London high, tight hold above 0.8367.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT drove a roughly 50-pip impulse from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low. The move cleared the 0.8338 London high and the 0.8350 cap and printed a 0.8382 CPI high. Early in the NY session, price is holding 0.8374 above the 0.8367 post-CPI low, with RSI(14) near 79 after the spike.
Support: 0.83672, 0.83381, 0.83299
Resistance: 0.83816, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8367 post-CPI low opens the 50% fib of the CPI impulse near 0.8356
M15 close above the 0.8382 CPI high, close to the 17-month high, brings the 0.8400 round number into view
Return below the 0.8338 London high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break, with the 0.8330 pre-CPI low next
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
CPI breakout above London high, holding near spike high.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) drove a ~50-pip impulse at the London-NY transition, from the 0.8330 pre-CPI low to the 0.8380 CPI high, clearing the London high at 0.8338 and the 0.8350–0.8365 range top. Price is holding just under the spike high, with the post-CPI low at 0.8367 respected and RSI(14) near 83.
Support: 0.8367, 0.8338, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8380 CPI high clears the 17-month high flagged in the digest
Close back below the 0.8367 post-CPI low points to a deeper retrace toward the 50% fib near 0.8355
Return below the 0.8338 London high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Loss of the rising lows line from the Asian low exposes the 0.8330 pre-CPI low
London higher lows into a CPI breakout above the 0.8350 cap.
The US CPI release at 12:30 GMT drove a ~28-pip bar from the 0.8330 pre-cpi low through the 0.8350 cap and the 0.8338 London high. The bar closed at 0.8358, right at the cpi high, extending a session of higher lows off the 0.8317 Asian low. RSI(14) is 74, hot but short of an extreme, and ATR has expanded to about 5 pips from roughly 3.5 before the print.
Support: 0.8350, 0.83381, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.83582, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8350 cap keeps the range break intact. A close back below it flags a false break.
A return below the london high at 0.8338, near the 50% fib of the Asian low-to-cpi high leg, would unwind most of the CPI move.
The UOB range top at 0.8365 is the next test, with the 17m high near 0.8380 beyond. A failure to clear 0.8365 leaves the cpi high as a rejection point.
A break of the London HL line, now near 0.8330, would end the intraday higher-low sequence.
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the post-CPI read during NY hours.
12:31 UTC
Uptrend since Asia, pausing below session high · RSI 59 · price 0.83331
London HH/HL chain; 38.2% pullback held, coiling into CPI.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.8329 and yesterday's 0.8333 high, peaking at the 0.8338 session high. The 0.8330 swing low then held as a 38.2% retest of the London leg fib off the 0.8317 Asian low, along the rising lows line. Price is compressing near 0.8333 in the London-NY transition minutes before US CPI, after the franc gave back its early gains on Williams' dovish remarks.
Support: 0.83299, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83381, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is minutes away and could materially shift this read; the 3-pip ATR understates the likely release range
M15 close below the 0.8330 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the London higher-low chain
Close above the 0.8338 session high puts the 0.8350 range cap in play
A return below the 0.8317 Asian low would unwind the full London leg
London breakout above Asian range, now retesting it.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8329 and yesterday's 0.8333 top as the dollar pared Williams-driven losses, printing a session high at 0.8338. Price has eased into US CPI and is retesting the 0.8329–0.8330 area. That zone, set by the pullback low, sits near the 38.2% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) at 43 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8338, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker), 15 minutes out, will likely overwhelm the current ~3-pip ATR
M15 close back below the 0.8329 asian high returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.8317 asian low next
Close above the 0.8338 session high brings the 0.8350 range cap into play
Holding the 0.8330 pullback low keeps the London higher-low structure intact
London broke the Asian range high and topped at 0.8338; price is back under the prior high.
London broke above the Asian range (0.8317–0.8329) and printed a double top at the 0.8338 session high. Price has slipped back under the 0.8333 prior high onto the fib 38.2 near 0.8330 in the late-London lull. ATR is under 3 pips and RSI(14) is near 44 as USD consolidates into US CPI.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8333, 0.8338, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, 30 minutes out, is likely to override the pre-release structure; a hot core print puts the 0.8350 range cap in view.
An M15 close below the 0.8329 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.8317 Asian low.
A recovery through the 0.8338 session high negates the double top and opens 0.8350.
London broke the Asian range and prior high; tight 0.8333–0.8338 consolidation since.
London lifted the pair out of the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range and through yesterday's 0.8333 high, printing a 0.8338 session high. It has stalled into a 5-pip consolidation for three hours ahead of US CPI. Price is now retesting the range low at 0.8333, which is also the prior high. RSI(14) is neutral near 59 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.83326, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83381, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (~45 min) could materially shift this read; compressed ATR leaves room for a sharp range expansion
An M15 close below the 0.8333 range low reopens the asian high at 0.8329, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the London leg
A close above the 0.8338 session high exposes the 0.8350 hurdle flagged as the near-term cap
Loss of the asian low at 0.8317 would erase the London breakout
London breakout above Asian range, tight consolidation above prior high.
London cleared the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range and then the 0.8333 prior high, peaking at the 0.8338 session high as USD steadied into the CPI countdown. Price has compressed in a 5-pip band above 0.8333 for two hours. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is about 3 pips, which is tight ahead of the 12:30 GMT print.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8338, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the likely trigger for the next range break; the current ATR understates post-release move size
An M15 close back below the 0.8333 prior high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 0.8338 session high exposes the 0.8350 round number, with the 0.8365 range top beyond
Loss of the 0.8320 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 0.8317 asian low back in play; the 38.2% fib of the London leg sits near 0.8330
London range break above Asian range and prior high, tight hold above 0.8333.
London broke the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range to the upside and cleared yesterday's 0.8333 prior high as the USD steadied into CPI. Since 09:00 UTC the London leg has stalled in a ~5-pip band beneath the 0.8338 session high, RSI(14) ~72 and ATR ~3 pips.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83381, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read and break the 0.8333–0.8338 compression
Close above the 0.8350 round number clears the cited range hurdle; rejection there keeps the move a range-top probe
M15 close back below the 0.8333 prior high exposes the asian high at 0.8329 and the 38.2% of the London leg fib near 0.8330
Loss of the 0.8317 asian low would fully negate the London breakout
London breakout above Asian range, tight compression since.
London cleared the 0.8329 Asian high and yesterday's 0.8333 peak, extending to a 0.8338 session high off the 0.8317 Asian low despite two days of broad USD softness. Since then price has compressed in a 5-pip band above the 0.8333 swing low and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 72 and ATR(14) under 3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.83326, 0.83291, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83381, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the likely trigger to break the current compression
M15 close above the 0.8338 session high opens the 0.8350 round number
Close below the 0.8333 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 0.8329 Asian high and the 38.2% fib of the London leg in play
Loss of the 0.8317 Asian low would fully unwind the London leg
Higher lows from the Asian low; London has broken above the Asian range and prior NY high.
After Williams' dovish remarks pushed the pair to the 0.8317 Asian low, London cleared the Asian high at 0.8329 and the prior NY high at 0.8333, setting a session high at 0.8337. Pullbacks since have held the 0.8333 area, which is also the 23.6% retrace, and the rising London trendline, leaving price coiled under the 0.8350 round number into US CPI.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT: a hot core print would put the 0.8350 round number in play, while a soft print could drag price back toward the 0.8329 asian high
M15 close below 0.8333 (ny high) and the London trendline would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8329 asian high reopens the 0.8317 asian low
Bowman at 14:55 GMT could reshape the post-CPI read
London broke above Asian range and prior high; higher-low chain from 0.8317.
The London rally lifted price out of the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range, through the Asian high and Tuesday's 0.8333 prior high, to a session high at 0.83374 as the USD's two-day correction paused. Price is now holding the prior high on a shallow pullback, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8333, 0.83291, 0.83202
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 0.8350 round number in play
M15 close back below the 0.8333 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and opens the asian high at 0.8329, near the 38.2% of the London rally
Failure to hold the 0.8320 london low breaks the higher-low chain
Clean push through the 0.83374 session high extends the London breakout toward the 0.8350 round number
London broke above Asian high and prior high; tight hold under 0.8337.
London lifted the pair off the 0.8317 Asian low, through the 0.8329 Asian high and the 0.8333 prior high to a 0.8337 session high, with higher lows holding along the rising lows line. The CHF-supportive pullback in yields has paused into US CPI, and price is now compressing just above the prior high with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.83334, 0.83291, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could break the 0.8290–0.8350 range either way
M15 close back below the 0.8329 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.8337 session high exposes the 0.8350 range top
Loss of the rising lows line shifts focus back to the 0.8317 asian low
London break above Asian range and prior high, now retesting 0.8333.
London open lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range and through yesterday's 0.8333 prior high to a 0.8337 session high, partly unwinding the two-day USD dip. Price is now holding a retest of 0.8333 just under the 0.8350 hurdle, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-London leg sitting on the 0.8329 Asian high. The rising trendline from the Asian lows runs well below price, near the 0.8320 London low.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8329, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8333 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8329 Asian high / 38.2% fib
Clearance of the 0.8337 session high puts the 0.8350 hurdle in play
Loss of the 0.8320 London low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.8317 Asian low; London broke Asian range and prior high.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8329 and cleared yesterday's 0.8334 prior high. The pair has rallied from the 0.8317 Asian low to a 0.83374 session high, unwinding part of the two-day USD dip, with RSI(14) near 73. Price is stalling 13 pips under the 0.8350 psych hurdle ahead of Bowman and US CPI.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8329, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core MoM at 0.2% is the forecast
M15 close back below the 0.8334 prior high, then the 0.8329 asian high, would mark a false break. The asian high sits near the 38.2% of the London leg fib
A break of the London trend support and the 0.8320 swing low would end the HH/HL chain
M15 close above 0.8350 psych opens the 0.8365 range top
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into window high · RSI 75 · price 0.83369
London breakout above Asian range and prior high.
London lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range. It also cleared yesterday's 0.8333 prior high, reversing the overnight drift toward 0.8320 that followed Williams' dovish remarks. Price is pressing the window high with RSI(14) near 75; a fib of the London leg from the asian low puts the 38.2% near 0.8329, close to the asian high.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8329, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core 0.2% m/m consensus
M15 close back below 0.8333 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the rising lows line near 0.8321 reopens the asian low at 0.8317
0.8350 round number and 0.8365 range top are the next areas to watch for rejection or break
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 76 · price 0.83369
London breakout above Asian range and prior high.
London open lifted USDCHF off the 0.8317 Asian low, through the 0.8329 Asian high and the 0.8334 prior high, to a 0.8337 session high. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme. The bounce runs against the digest's softer-USD tone into today's US CPI.
Support: 0.83338, 0.83291, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83371, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8334 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.8329 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib, and the London trend line exposes the 0.8317 Asian low
Session high at 0.8337 and the 0.8350 round number are areas to watch for rejection or extension
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.8317 Asian low; Asian range high cleared at London open.
Asia drifted lower on the dovish Williams read before twin tests of the 0.8317 Asian low held. London open then lifted price through the 0.8329 Asian high to a 0.8331 session high, and it is now holding just above that level with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8329, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8331, 0.8334
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8329 asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 0.8334 prior high clears yesterday's London top
Failure to hold the 0.8320 london low breaks the higher lows trendline and sits below the london leg fib 50% at 0.8324
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, higher lows intact · RSI 67 · price 0.83287
London broke above the Asian range high; price retesting 0.8329 below Tuesday's high.
Higher lows have built off the 0.8317 Asian low, and London lifted USDCHF out of its 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range to a 0.83313 London high. Price is now retesting the broken Asian high, with RSI(14) near 67. Tuesday's 0.83338 prior high still caps the pair after CHF firmed on Williams' dovish 2027 remarks, with US CPI due later today.
Support: 0.8326, 0.83202, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83313, 0.83338
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8326 swing high returns price inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
A break of the 0.83202 London low snaps the higher-lows trendline
A close above the 0.83338 prior high clears the top of Tuesday's range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, and Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 69 · price 0.83311
Higher lows since 0.8317; London breaking the Asian range high.
London open extended a chain of higher lows off the 0.8317 Asian low and pushed through the 0.8329 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 69. The move runs against a softer dollar after Williams' dovish lean. Yesterday's 0.8334 prior high, which capped NY trade twice, sits directly overhead.
Support: 0.8329, 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8350
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could reset this read; a soft core print puts the 0.8313 NY low back in play
M15 close back below the 0.8329 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.8334 prior high opens the path to the 0.8350 range top
Loss of the intraday HL line and the 0.8317 Asian low ends the higher-low sequence
The Asia session drifted lower from the 0.8329 Asian high to a 0.8317 Asian low, which held three times. Since then the pair has printed a higher low near 0.8319. The London open lifted price to 0.8326, but the move met rejection there and price is back at 0.8322, still inside yesterday's 0.8313 NY low to 0.8334 prior high range as Williams' 'no 2027 hikes' comment weighs on USD.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8329, 0.8334
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main catalyst and could break the session range either way
Bowman at 09:40 GMT could shift USD tone during the London session
Failure to hold the 0.8319 higher low and the 0.8317 Asian low exposes the 0.8313 NY low
An M15 close above the 0.8326 London high reopens the 0.8329 Asian high and the 0.8334 prior high
07:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off Asian low, inside wider range · RSI 60 · price 0.83243
Higher lows since 05:00 UTC; capped below Asian high.
Buyers stepped in three times at the 0.8317 Asian low overnight. A higher-low chain since 05:00 UTC lifted the pair to a 0.8326 session high at London open, with RSI(14) near 60. Price is still inside yesterday's 0.8313 prior low to 0.8334 prior high range, with the Asian high at 0.8329 overhead into US CPI, as a softer USD after Williams' remarks keeps the tone two-way.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8329, 0.8334
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8329 asian high puts the 0.8334 prior high in play
Loss of the 0.8319 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8317 asian low, then the 0.8313 prior low
Rejection at the 0.8326 session high keeps the pair inside the overnight range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, where core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing number, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
Lower highs from 0.8329 Asian high; micro higher lows off 0.8317.
Asia sold off from the 0.8329 Asian high to 0.8317, where three tests held. The bounce into London open stalled at 0.8325, the fib 61.8 retracement of that drop and the descending trendline. USD is soft for a second day on Williams' 'no 2027 hike' remark, and the pair is compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.83246, 0.83291, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8325 breaks the descending trendline and the fib 61.8 cap, exposing the 0.8329 Asian high and the 0.8333 prior high beyond it
Failure to hold the 0.8320 higher low puts the 0.8317 Asian low back in play; below that sits the 0.8313 prior low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
06:46 UTC
Mild intraday downtrend, basing at asian low · RSI 52 · price 0.83206
Lower highs through Asia off 0.8329; triple low at 0.8317, bounce capped at 0.8324.
USD/CHF drifted lower through the Asia session as the post-Williams USD pullback extended. Price printed lower highs from the 0.8329 asian high down to a triple-tested 0.8317 asian low. The pre-London bounce was rejected at the 0.8324 session high, near the 61.8% of that drop, and price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 session high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 0.8329 asian high
Above 0.8329, the 0.8333 ny high from yesterday caps the prior-day range
Failure to hold the 0.8317 asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8313 prior low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off base · RSI 60 · price 0.83225
Lower highs from 0.8333; triple base at 0.8317 holding.
Late Asia session, about 45 minutes before London open. The pair slid from the 0.8329 asian high to a 0.8317 asian low that held three times, a drift in line with the USD pullback after Williams' 'no 2027 hike' remarks. Price is now testing the 50% retracement of that leg near 0.8323, with the bounce high at 0.8324 capping so far.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8317 asian low breaks the triple base and exposes the 0.8313 prior low
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.8329 asian high reopens the 0.8333 prior high
Bounce high at 0.8324 is the first area to watch for rejection or break into London
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs, double bottom at 0.8317, neckline 0.8321 under test.
Asia extended the Williams-driven USD slide from the 0.8329 asian high to a double bottom at the 0.8317 asian low. Into the London open, price is lifting through the 0.8321 neckline and pressing the ema50 and the 38.2–50% zone of the Asian slide fib, with ATR(14) a thin ~2 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8321, 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8321 neckline negates the double bottom and returns focus to the 0.8317 asian low
Close above the ema50 and the 0.8325 50% fib of the Asian slide opens the 0.8329 asian high, with the 0.8333 prior high from yesterday's NY session above
Loss of the 0.8313 prior low (yesterday's NY sweep low) breaks the 24h range floor
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Asia down-drift, late-session bounce · RSI 55 · price 0.83223
Lower highs through Asia into a twin low at 0.8317, now retracing; still inside the 0.8313–0.8334 24h range.
Asia ground lower from the 0.8329 asian high to a twin asian low at 0.8317, extending the USD softness that followed Williams' comments. A late-Asia bounce has reached the 38.2% retracement near 0.8322 ahead of London open, with the fib 61.8% at 0.83245 above. The broader 24h range from the 0.8313 tuesday low to the 0.8334 prior high is intact.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.83245, 0.8329, 0.8334
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.83245 fib 61.8% puts the 0.8329 asian high back in play
A break of the 0.8317 asian low twin base exposes the 0.8313 tuesday low
Acceptance outside the 0.8313 tuesday low to 0.8334 prior high range invalidates the range read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening at the lows · RSI 43 · price 0.83197
Asian lower highs onto a flat 0.8317 floor, late Asia.
The Asian session bled lower from the 0.8329 asian high to a 0.8317 asian low, which has held on four tests. The latest bounce poked above the Asia down-line but stalled at the 0.8321 lower high, with broad USD softness ahead of US CPI as the backdrop.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8321 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and opens the 0.8329 asian high, with the 0.8333 ny high beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8317 asian low exposes Tuesday's 0.8313 ny low
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high into a flat 0.8317 base.
Late Asia session: price has stepped lower in a lower-high sequence from the 0.8329 asian high and is basing at the 0.8317 asian low, tested five times since 03:00 UTC. RSI(14) sits near 38 and ATR(14) is under 2 pips. Price is below both EMAs as the USD pullback carries into today's US CPI, with yesterday's 0.8313 ny low the next reference below.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83209, 0.83291, 0.83334
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8317 asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8313 ny low
M15 close above the 0.8321 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Recovery through the 0.8329 asian high would neutralise the Asia downtrend; the 0.8333 day high sits just above
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asia session faded from the 0.8329 Asian high in a chain of lower highs as the USD correction extended into CPI. Late Asia, price is compressing just above the 0.8317 session low, which has held three times, with the 0.8321 swing high capping and ATR(14) near 2 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83209, 0.83291
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 session low exposes yesterday's 0.8313 NY low
Recovery above the 0.8321 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.8329 Asian high next
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, basing at the session low.
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF has faded from the 0.8329 Asian high in a chain of lower highs, in line with the broader USD correction ahead of US CPI. Price is now holding a tight base at the 0.8317 Asian low, just above the prior NY low at 0.8313, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.83291
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low exposes the 0.8313 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8321 breakdown area and the falling Asia trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Asian high at 0.8329 caps the session range; London open could expand it in either direction
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core expected at 0.2% m/m, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
04:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.83182
Lower highs from 0.8329 Asian high, basing at 0.8317 Asian low.
Late Asia session: USDCHF has bled from the 0.8329 Asian high to a 0.8317 Asian low on a clean descending trendline of lower highs, RSI(14) near 31 and ranges compressing. Price sits well below yesterday's 0.8334 prior high and just above the 0.8313 NY low, with the softer pre-CPI dollar tone the backdrop.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83209, 0.83291, 0.83344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 0.8321 swing high breaks the Asian lower-high chain, opening the 0.8329 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8313 NY low
London open and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could expand the tight Asian range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; 0.8334 prior high is the upside reference on a hot core print
Lower-high chain from Asian high, pressing Asian low.
Asia session has ground lower from the 0.8329 Asian high in a steady chain of lower highs and is now pressing the 0.8317 Asian low, RSI(14) near 29 with ATR only ~2 pips. The softer USD tone into today's CPI frames the drift. Yesterday's 0.8313 prior low, the base of the NY-hours rebound, is the next reference below.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83209, 0.83291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8321 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low exposes the 0.8313 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.8329 Asian high would neutralise the Asia downtrend read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia off 0.8329, holding above NY low.
After a rejection at the 0.8329 asian high on the open, the late Asia session printed lower highs down to a 0.8317 asian low. That low sits above yesterday's 0.8313 ny low, and price is bouncing toward the fib 38.2 at 0.8322 with RSI(14) near 36. The pre-CPI USD softening after Williams' comments frames the drift, while the 0.8313–0.8334 range high from yesterday still contains price.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83216, 0.83291, 0.83344
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8317 asian low exposes the 0.8313 ny low
A failure to clear the fib 38.2 at 0.8322 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A recovery through the 0.8329 asian high puts the 0.8334 range high back in play
London open in about 3h, Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Asian lower-high sequence from 0.8329; base forming at 0.8317.
Late Asia session: the pair has stepped lower from the 0.8329 Asian high to a 0.8317 Asian low, in line with CHF firmness against a softer USD ahead of today's US CPI. The bounce off the low met rejection at the descending trendline near 0.8321. Yesterday's 0.8313 prior low and 0.8334 prior high frame the wider range.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83209, 0.83291, 0.83344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8321 trendline breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the fib 61.8 near 0.8325 in play
A move back above the 0.8329 Asian high negates the overnight slide and reopens the 0.8334 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8313 prior low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Late Asia session: price has stepped down in lower highs from the 0.8329 Asia high, losing the 0.8322 shelf. It now sits on the 0.8317 Asia low, just above yesterday's 0.8313 NY low, with RSI(14) near 29. CHF firmness against a softer pre-CPI dollar frames the drift, though moves stay small at about 2 pips per bar.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8322, 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8313 NY low sets a lower low beneath yesterday's NY rebound base
A close back above the 0.8322 shelf and the descending trendline neutralises the Asia grind; the 0.8329 Asia high and 0.8333 prior high sit above
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
How price reacts at the 0.8317 Asia low around London open decides whether it holds or the drift extends
Lower highs through Asia session, pressing toward prior NY low.
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF has slid from the 0.8329 asia high in a chain of lower highs to 0.8317. It is now about 4 pips above the 0.8313 prior low set in yesterday's NY session, with RSI(14) near 24. The firmer franc tracks a softer USD into today's CPI, and it sits under the descending Asia trendline.
Support: 0.83131, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83225, 0.83291
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8313 prior low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 0.8300 round number next
M15 close back above the 0.83225 minor high and the Asia trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
RSI(14) sub-25 leaves the move stretched; a bounce into London open would test the Asia trendline
Asia session has stepped down in a clean lower-high sequence from the 0.8329 Asia high to a fresh low at 0.8319, extending CHF firmness against a softer USD ahead of today's US CPI. The next reference below is yesterday's NY low at 0.8313, which was swept and sharply rejected during NY hours. RSI(14) near 27 is soft but not extreme, and ATR is compressed to about 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.83188, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83222, 0.83291
What it said to watch
Close above the Asia trendline and the 0.8322 lower high breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8319 Asia low exposes the 0.8313 NY low
Recovery back through 0.8325 reopens the 0.8329 Asia high
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.83192
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the Asian high, pressing the session low.
Late in the Asia session the pair has stepped lower from the 0.8329 Asian high, printing lower highs (latest swing high 0.8322) and a fresh session low at 0.8319 as the softer USD tone carries into Wednesday's US CPI. Price is below EMA20/EMA50 and sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib retrace of yesterday's NY rally from the 0.8313 NY low to the 0.8333 prior high. RSI(14) ~31 is not oversold, and ATR is a compressed 2.2 pips.
Support: 0.83188, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83225, 0.83291, 0.83334
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8322 swing high breaks the Asia lower-highs line
Loss of the 0.8313 NY low takes price below yesterday's range and through the 78.6% fib
Recovery through the 0.8329 Asian high and 0.8333 prior high would negate the Asia sell-off
London open in ~4h typically expands the compressed Asia range
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session from the 0.8329 Asian high.
Asia session has printed a steady lower-high/lower-low chain off the 0.8329 Asian high. Price is now testing the 0.8320 rollover low, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's 0.8313–0.8333 NY rebound, with RSI(14) near 34. CHF is holding firm against a softer USD into US CPI, and ranges are compressed at about 2 pips per bar.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8329, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8320 rollover low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8313 swing low
Close above the Asia trendline and the 0.8329 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read; 0.8333 prior high capped NY twice
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.83224
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.8329 session high, inside the prior day's 0.8313–0.8334 range.
Asia session has printed a run of lower highs from the 0.8329 session high to a 0.8320 session low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 35. The drift fits the softer pre-CPI USD tone after Williams' remarks, but the pair is still inside yesterday's 0.8313–0.8334 range, with the NY swing low at 0.8317 and the prior low at 0.8313 below.
Support: 0.83205, 0.83166, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.83291, 0.83344
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8325 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.8320 session low exposes the 0.8317 swing low and 0.8313 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.8329 session high returns focus to the 0.8334 prior high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today, with Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.83215
Lower highs and lower lows off the Asia high, inside the 0.8313–0.8334 day range.
Early Asia session is printing lower highs off the 0.83291 asia high and is now pressing the 0.83205 asia low, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs. Yesterday's NY open dip to the 0.83131 day low reversed to the 0.8333 NY high, and the 0.83344 range top has capped since. The softer USD tone into Wednesday's CPI fits the drift lower, and ATR near 2 pips reflects thin Asian-hours ranges.
Support: 0.83205, 0.83166, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.8333, 0.83344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83205 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.83166 london low and 0.83131 day low
Close back above the Asia trendline and the 0.83291 asia high negates the intraday downtrend read
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could break the 0.83131–0.83344 day range in either direction
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the Asian high, pressing the session low.
Asia session has printed steady lower highs from the 0.8329 Asian high and is now testing the 0.8320 session low and 0.83195 rollover low. RSI(14) is near 31, not yet oversold. Below that sits the 0.8313 prior low from before yesterday's NY rebound, and the drift fits the softer pre-CPI USD tone.
Support: 0.83205, 0.83195, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.83291, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8320 session low and 0.83195 rollover low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8313 prior low
Close above the 0.8325 lower high breaks the Asian trendline; the 0.8329 Asian high and 0.8333 NY high cap above
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Sideways, mild drift lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.83241
Lower highs since 0.8333, Asian range 0.8324–0.8329.
Early Asia session is pressing the Asian low at 0.8324, at the 50% retracement of the NY rebound from the 0.8313 NY low to the 0.8333 NY high, with lower highs capping since. CHF is holding firmer on a softer USD into today's US CPI. M15 ranges are compressed to about 2 pips, so the pair is in a pre-data range with no break yet.
Support: 0.83236, 0.83195, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83334, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8324 Asian low exposes the 0.8320 gap low and the fib 61.8% at 0.8321
Close above the 0.8329 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.8333 NY high back in play; above that sits the 0.8337 prior high
Failure to hold 0.8320 opens a retest of the 0.8313 NY low
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.8325
Tight Asian range inside the prior-day 0.8313–0.8338 span.
Early Asia is pinned in a 7-pip box between the asian low at 0.8322 and the asian high at 0.8329. Price is still holding above yesterday's ny low at 0.8313, while the rebound from that low was capped at the ny high at 0.8333. A softer USD tone into Wednesday's CPI has kept the pair below the day high at 0.8338, and ATR near 2 pips reflects the compression.
Support: 0.8322, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8329, 0.8333, 0.8338
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 0.8322, near the 50–61.8% fib of the NY rebound, exposes the ny low at 0.8313
Close above the ny high at 0.8333 reopens the day high at 0.8338
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Sideways, compressed into US CPI · RSI 49 · price 0.83254
Tight Asian range inside the post-NY rebound range.
USDCHF is holding a 7-pip Asian range of 0.8322–0.8329. The pair rebounded from the 0.8313 NY low in the NY session as a softer USD, after Williams' comments, kept the pair capped below the 0.8333 swing high. Price was rejected at the 0.8329 Asian high at 00:00 UTC and now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the NY rebound, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) compressed to about 2.5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.83221, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83334, 0.83386
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8322 Asian low opens the 50–61.8% fib zone (0.8323–0.8321) and then the 0.8313 NY low
M15 close above the 0.8329 Asian high reopens the 0.8333 swing high, then the 0.8339 prior high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core vs 0.2% m/m consensus, is the likely range-breaker
Bowman remarks at 09:40 UTC could stir the London session before CPI
01:02 UTC
Sideways, compressed after NY rebound · RSI 51 · price 0.83254
Range 0.8322–0.8333 above 0.8313 ny low.
USDCHF is holding a tight Asian range of 0.8322–0.8329. That sits inside the 0.8322–0.8333 band built after the NY rebound from the 0.8313 ny low, with price parked near the 38.2% level of the ny bounce fib. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR is about 2 pips, consistent with pre-CPI compression as USD holds below Monday's highs.
Support: 0.83221, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83334
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8322 asian low exposes the 0.8313 ny low and the 61.8% of the ny bounce fib
M15 close above the 0.8329 asian high reopens the 0.8333 ny high, the top of the post-NY range
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could break the compression; core vs headline split is the key driver
00:46 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, low momentum · RSI 55 · price 0.83268
Compressed 0.8322–0.8333 range above the NY low, early Asia.
USDCHF slid to the 0.83131 NY low as USD softened on Williams' soft-cap remarks, then rebounded to the 0.83334 NY high and has compressed since. Pullbacks have held the 50–61.8% fib zone near the 0.83221 rollover low. Early Asia sits mid-range between the 0.83252 asian low and the 0.83291 asian high, with ATR near 2 pips and no setup in play.
Support: 0.83252, 0.83221, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83334, 0.83442
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.83334 NY high breaks the post-NY range and puts the 0.83442 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 0.83221 rollover low exposes the NY low at 0.83131 and voids the fib-zone hold
Asian range 0.83252–0.83291 break sets the first directional tell before London
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Flat, sideways after NY rebound · RSI 49 · price 0.83255
Tight overnight range 0.8322–0.8329 inside the 0.8313–0.8334 day range.
The NY session break to the 0.8313 ny low reversed fast toward 0.8333, with supply capping the 0.8333–0.8334 prior highs as CHF stayed firm against a softer USD ahead of CPI. Since late NY the pair has compressed into a 0.8322 range low to 0.8329 range high band through early Asia. It sits near the 38.2% level of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) near 2 pips.
Support: 0.83222, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83339
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8322 range low reopens the 0.8313 ny low
M15 close above the 0.8329 range high puts the 0.8333–0.8334 prior highs back in play
Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CHF slid from the 0.8345 asia high to a 0.8313 session low in early NY trade as the dollar eased after Williams' comments. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8333 ny high, which is the 61.8% fib of that drop. Since then a 0.8323–0.8333 range has held into the early Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) compressed near 2 pips.
Support: 0.83225, 0.83131
Resistance: 0.83334, 0.83448
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8333 ny high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 0.8345 asia high back in play
Break below the 0.8323 late ny low reopens the 0.8313 session low
Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read