Post-CPI breakout retracing to prior range top; higher lows Tue–Wed.
From the week open at 0.8297, Monday's London-NY rally ran to the Monday high near 0.8348, then Tuesday settled into a 0.8313–0.8335 range. Wednesday's hot US CPI broke the range to 0.8395, but the NY afternoon gave back about 75% of the CPI leg. Price now sits on the pre-CPI high at 0.8336, below EMA(20) and level with EMA(50), and RSI(14) has slid from overbought above 80 to 45.
Support: 0.8336, 0.8317, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close below the pre-CPI high at 0.8336 turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the Asia low at 0.8317 and the higher lows line
Reclaim of the Monday high at 0.8348, where EMA(20) and the 61.8% of the CPI leg converge, restores the breakout structure toward the CPI high at 0.8395
A break of the higher lows line would put the week open at 0.8297 back in play
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Range break above 0.8349 on CPI, now retesting the old range high.
Since the 0.8297 weekly open, USDCHF has carved higher lows. Monday's London/NY rally capped near 0.8349, and Tuesday chopped down to 0.8313 on Williams' remarks. The hot US CPI print lifted the pair through the 0.8365 range top to a 0.8395 cpi high during the first hour of NY. The gains then faded after London close to a 0.8341 post-cpi low, roughly a 70% retrace of the Wed low-to-high leg. Price is now pinned at EMA(20) and Monday's high near 0.8349, with EMA(50) at 0.8342 sitting just under the post-CPI low and RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s from the spike.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8317, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the fib 50% at 0.8356 and the 0.8365 range top would restore the CPI breakout toward the cpi high at 0.8395
Failure to hold the 0.8341 post-cpi low exposes the 0.8317 wed low and the weekly higher lows trendline; a break there negates the breakout
US PPI, retail sales and claims at Thu 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
Weekly open at 0.8297 marks the floor of this week's structure
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8297 weekly open through Monday's London and NY sessions. It then chopped in a 0.8313–0.8349 band on higher lows until hot US CPI drove an NY-session spike to the 0.8395 CPI high, the highest since May 2025. The late-NY fade has retraced about 60% of the 0.8317–0.8395 CPI leg back to the Monday high near 0.8349, with price pinned at EMA(20) and RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8341 pullback low would expose the pre-CPI base and the wed low at 0.8317
Recovery above the 38.2% fib at 0.8365, the prior range top, is needed to put the 0.8395 CPI high back in play
Break of the higher lows trendline near 0.8322 would negate the CPI breakout read
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Failed upside break, back below Monday high inside weekly range.
After a London-led rally on Monday capped at the monday high near 0.8349, the pair chopped lower into Tuesday and Wednesday's Asian lows before the hot US CPI print drove a NY-session spike to the cpi high at 0.8395. The move unwound after London close, retracing roughly 69% of the 0.8317–0.8395 CPI impulse to the ny low at 0.8341, back below the monday high and EMA(20) near 0.8350. RSI(14) has dropped from overbought at the peak to about 49, which leaves the breakout above the range top looking like a false break for now.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8330, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8380, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the monday high at 0.8349, alongside EMA(20) near 0.8350, revives the breakout read
Failure to hold the ny low at 0.8341 exposes the pre-cpi base near 0.8330 and the rising lows line from Tuesday
A break of the wed low at 0.8317, in the 0.8320–0.8315 200-hour SMA zone, fully negates the CPI breakout
Reclaiming the 17m high at 0.8380 is needed to bring the cpi high at 0.8395 back into focus
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Uptrend after CPI breakout, first pullback underway · RSI 60 · price 0.83624
Range break above 0.8313–0.8349 band; post-spike pullback testing range top.
After a London-led Monday rally from 0.8287, USD/CHF spent Tuesday and Wednesday inside a 0.8313–0.8349 band. The hotter US core CPI print broke the pair out of that band in a single 45-pip NY session bar and carried it to a 0.8395 week high, its highest since May 2025. The last hour saw a rejection that gave back about 22 pips to a 0.8360 pullback low, just under the 0.8365 range top and the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, with EMA(20) near 0.8352 below and RSI(14) easing to around 60 from overbought.
Support: 0.8360, 0.8352, 0.8338
Resistance: 0.8365, 0.8380, 0.8395
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 0.8365 range top keeps the range break intact, with the 0.8380 17m high and the 0.8395 week high next overhead
Failure to hold the 0.8360 pullback low exposes EMA(20) near 0.8352 and the 61.8% fib near 0.8347
A close back below the 0.8338 pre-CPI high puts price back inside the old band and points to a false break
A return below the higher-lows line near 0.8320 would negate the CPI breakout structure
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and Thursday 12:30 GMT US Retail Sales/PPI could materially shift this read
Range break above 0.8348-0.8365 band, new week high.
From the 0.8297 weekly open, the pair spent Tuesday and early Wednesday chopping below the 0.8348 Monday high. The hot US core CPI during the first hour of NY then drove a 45-pip H1 bar through the range top at 0.8365 and the 0.8380 prior high, which was the 17-month high area. The NY session extended to a 0.8395 week high, just shy of the 0.8400 round number, and has since held near 0.8384 with RSI(14) overbought and price well above EMA(20) and EMA(50). Higher lows since the Monday open remain intact. The 38.2% fib of the Wednesday leg sits at the range top, and the 61.8% sits near the Monday high.
Support: 0.8380, 0.8365, 0.8348
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below 0.8380 prior high would put the breakout into question
A return inside the range below the 0.8365 range top and the 0.8348 Monday high would read as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8395 week high opens the 0.8400 round number
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT today could shift the read
Thursday 12:30 GMT US Retail Sales and PPI are the next catalyst for the CPI move
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive leg after hot CPI · RSI 79 · price 0.83853
Breakout above Tue–Wed range, higher lows since Monday.
USD/CHF broke out of the 0.8313–0.8349 Tue–Wed range in the first hour of NY. The hot core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) lifted the dollar and cleared the Monday high at 0.8349 in a single ~45-pip bar. Follow-through has stalled at a 0.8395 week high, with the post-CPI low at 0.8373 holding and RSI(14) near 79 in overbought territory, while the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg (~0.8365) sits just below.
Support: 0.8373, 0.8349, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8373 post-CPI low opens a retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 0.8365
Return below the 0.8349 Monday high would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the range
Close above the 0.8395 week high and the 0.8400 round number extends the CPI leg
Loss of the 0.8317 Wed low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC today and Thu PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break above 0.8350 cap, higher lows since Tuesday.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a roughly 50-pip NY-session impulse out of the week's 0.8313–0.8349 band. That move cleared Monday's high and set a fresh week high at 0.8389, extending the higher lows that held at 0.8313 Tuesday and 0.8317 Wednesday. Price is stretched well above EMA(20), now near 0.8346 and converging with the Monday high, while RSI(14) sits in the low 80s with the post-CPI low at 0.8373 the first shelf beneath.
Support: 0.83729, 0.83486, 0.83381
Resistance: 0.83888, 0.8400
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 0.8349 Monday high and EMA(20) would mark a clean retest of the broken range cap
An H1 close back below the 0.8338 pre-CPI high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8373 post-CPI low opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2–50% fib of the Wednesday move
Week high at 0.8389 and the 0.8400 round number are the overhead references; overbought RSI is already flagging extension
Beige Book (18:00 GMT) and Thursday's PPI/retail sales (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Range break above week high; higher-low line intact.
From Monday through Wednesday's London session, USD/CHF chopped in a 0.8293–0.8349 band. The monday high capped the upside, and the higher-low line from the weekly low held Tuesday's NY dip at 0.8313. The hot US core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) then drove a 45-pip range break in the first hour of NY, clearing the 0.8365 range top and the 17m high near 0.8380, with RSI(14) pushing near 79. Price is now holding just under the 0.83865 cpi high, with the 0.8400 round number the next reference above.
Support: 0.8380, 0.8365, 0.83486
Resistance: 0.83865, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 17m high at 0.8380 would show the first sign of the spike fading
Return inside the old range below the 0.8365 range top, toward the 38.2% fib at 0.8360, would point to a false break
A move back under the monday high at 0.8349 near the 50% fib would unwind the CPI breakout
H1 acceptance above the 0.83865 cpi high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the next test of whether the post-CPI move holds
Pullback held near 61.8%, Tuesday 0.8334 cap cleared in London.
USDCHF opened the week near 0.8297 and rallied through Monday's London and NY sessions to the 0.8349 week high. Williams' dovish lean then drove a two-day pullback that held the 0.8313 Tuesday low, near the 61.8% retrace of the Monday impulse, and set a higher low at 0.8317 in today's Asian range. London open has lifted price back above the 0.8327 EMA(20) and through the 0.8334 Tuesday cap, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 60s.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8327, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; a hot core print opens the path to the 0.8365 range top and 0.8380 17m high
H1 close back below the 0.8334 Tuesday cap turns today's push into a false break inside the range
Close above the 0.8349 week high resumes the Monday uptrend structure
Failure to hold the 0.8313 Tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8287 week low
Lower highs since Monday's peak; Tuesday low holding above 61.8%.
Monday's rally from the 0.8297 weekly open area to the 0.8349 week high was built across London and NY. Roughly half of it has since been given back, and Tuesday's NY-open drop to the 0.8313 tuesday low held just above the 61.8% retracement. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs and sits just under a flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 0.8325, with RSI(14) near 41, as USD extends its pullback on Williams' 'no 2027 hikes' remarks into US CPI. The Asian low at 0.8317, near the 50% level, is the nearest floor, and hourly ranges have compressed to about 5 pips ahead of the release.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.8333, 0.8349
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 and 14:55 GMT adds headline risk
H1 close below the 0.8313 tuesday low breaks the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally and exposes the 0.8297 weekly open
Reclaiming the ema20 and closing above the 0.8333 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence and put the 0.8349 week high back in focus
Repeated failure at the ema20 near 0.8325 keeps the lower-highs read intact
Lower highs from the 0.8349 week high; 0.8313 tue low intact.
Monday's rally from the 0.8297 weekly open, run from London open into NY, topped at the 0.8349 week high. Since then each bounce has stalled lower, with Tuesday's highs repeatedly capped at the 0.8333 range cap and EMA(20) now overhead near 0.8324 as the dollar corrects after Williams' remarks. Price is drifting through the Asia session at the 50% retracement of Monday's rally with RSI(14) near 39, and the 0.8313 tue low still holds after the sharp rejection in the first hour of NY yesterday.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8333, 0.8349
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8313 tue low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8297 weekly open
Close back above the 0.8333 range cap breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the pullback read
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 0.8349 week high back in play
Bowman at 09:40 GMT may move price within the ema20 to tue low band ahead of CPI
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 56-pip leg from the 0.8293 swing low to the 0.8349 week high. Since Tuesday's gap-lower open the pair has printed lower highs as USD eased on Williams' 'one more hike' remarks, and Tuesday's early-NY dip to 0.8313 near the 61.8% retracement drew an immediate rebound. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8324 and around the 50% level of Monday's leg, with RSI(14) at 41 and the Asia session drifting just above the Tuesday low.
Support: 0.83131, 0.8300, 0.82926
Resistance: 0.83245, 0.8333, 0.83486
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core at 0.3% m/m or higher vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
H1 close below the 0.8313 Tuesday low opens the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8293 swing low
Close above the lower highs line near 0.8333 negates the pullback sequence and puts the 0.8349 week high back in view
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an earlier catalyst within the Asian range
Monday's rally ran from the 0.8293 monday low to the 0.8349 week high, driven mostly in London and NY hours. Since then, a series of lower highs has retraced it, and Tuesday's early-NY dip to 0.8313 near the 61.8% fib was rejected. Price now sits at the 50% retracement around 0.8320, below EMA(20) near 0.8325, with RSI(14) near 39. The softer USD reflects Williams' dovish tilt and pre-CPI squaring, and supply has capped Tuesday's NY bounces at the 0.8334 range cap.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8297, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8313 tuesday low exposes the 0.8297 weekly open and the 0.8293 monday low
Close back above ema20 and the 0.8334 range cap breaks the lower highs trendline
Retest of the 0.8349 week high would revive the upper edge of the 0.8295–0.8365 range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Monday's London-to-NY rally from 0.8293 met rejection at the 0.8349 week high, the same 0.8350 area where the pair has repeatedly failed. Tuesday's pullback found demand at 0.8313 in the first hour of NY, near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally, and that Tuesday low has held. Since then each bounce has stopped at a lower high under the descending trendline, with price just below EMA(20) at 0.8327 and EMA(50) and RSI(14) in the mid-40s as CHF firmed on Williams' softer Fed signals ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.83131, 0.82974, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83267, 0.83334, 0.83486
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8333 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.8349 week high
Reclaiming ema20 near 0.8327 would shift the pair from drift back to range-holding
Loss of the 0.8313 Tuesday low and the 61.8% retracement exposes the 0.8297 weekly open and the 0.8287 weekly low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
01:03 UTC
Range after Monday rally, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.83259
Lower highs since Monday's week high; higher low held at 0.8313.
The Monday rally ran from just under the week open at 0.82974 to a week high of 0.83486, with London starting the move and NY extending it. Tuesday gave back roughly 58% of that leg, down to 0.83131, where the NY open saw a sharp rejection as Williams' dovish remarks trimmed the USD. Since then the pair has compressed under a lower-highs line and a 0.8334 range cap, sitting just below a flat ema20/EMA(50) near 0.8327 on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 47 and ATR down to about 5.5 pips ahead of CPI.
Support: 0.83131, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83273, 0.8334, 0.83486
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a core print at or above 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% f/c could break the compression and test the range cap at 0.8334
An H1 close above the 0.8334 range cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the week high at 0.83486
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 0.83131 (61.8% of the Monday rally fib) exposes the week open at 0.82974
Bowman remarks at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC could shift USD pricing around the CPI release
00:02 UTC
Range after Monday rally, lower highs since · RSI 52 · price 0.83283
Compression 0.8323–0.8334 beneath a lower-highs line from the 0.8349 week high.
The week opened near 0.8297 and Monday's London-NY leg carried price to the 0.8349 week high, matching last Thursday's 0.8347 peak, before USD softened on Williams' soft-cap remarks. Tuesday's NY dip to 0.8313 (tue low) found demand between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Monday's leg. Since then H1 has compressed in a 0.8323–0.8334 band hugging EMA(20), with RSI(14) flat near 52 and the range top still capping.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8334 range top breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8349 week high back into view
Failure to hold the 0.8313 tue low exposes the 0.8297 weekly open and the 61.8% retracement
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Fed Bowman and the Beige Book follow