Lower highs from the 0.8395 high, week low at 0.8261.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 during NY hours was a false break above Monday's 0.8349 high and has fully unwound. The heaviest selling came in Thursday's Asia session and again in the first hour of NY, where the hot PPI pop to the 0.8316 thu high was sold as falling Treasury yields overrode the data. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8283 and the 0.8300 week open and is pressing the lower-highs line from 0.8395, with RSI(14) near 42 off the lows; the 0.8261 week low is the nearest floor and the 0.8227 neckline sits below.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt would test the lower-highs line and the ema20 near 0.8283
An H1 close above the 0.8316 thu high, close to the 38.2% fib at 0.8312, breaks the lower-highs sequence; reclaiming the 0.8300 week open comes first
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low extends the downtrend toward the 0.8227 neckline
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is a secondary growth check during NY hours
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday · RSI 34 · price 0.82655
Lower highs from the 0.8395 CPI spike; week low being retested.
Wednesday's CPI spike in NY hours pushed through Monday's 0.8349 high to 0.8395, then fully reversed. That false break turned the week, and Thursday's Asia and London sessions extended the slide. The hot US PPI pop toward 0.8316 was sold again as falling Treasury yields and AI-linked risk aversion outweighed the data. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8283 and the ~0.8306 week open, pressing the week low at 0.8261, with each bounce capped by a lower-high line from the 0.8395 top.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.8300, 0.8312
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt is the digest's main path to a yield rebound
H1 close back above the 0.8300 psych level and the lower-high line would break the sequence of lower highs
A recovery that stalls at the 38.2% fib near 0.8312 keeps the post-CPI reversal structure intact
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 psych level
Hourly closes back above ema20 at 0.8283 would mark the first stall in Thursday's decline
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is a secondary catalyst; a miss would add to the dovish-growth narrative
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 rejection.
The CPI spike to 0.8395 during Wednesday's NY session was fully reversed. Thursday's Asia selloff then took price back through the 0.8297 weekly open, and the rally on the PPI beat failed at the thu high of 0.8316 as falling Treasury yields outweighed hot US data. Lower highs from Wednesday's top have capped each bounce, and price now sits on the 0.8264 week low, below the ema20 near 0.8285 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8285, 0.8297, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read during the Asia session
An H1 close back above the 0.8297 weekly open would break the lower-highs sequence
Holding below the 0.8264 week low exposes the 0.8227 neckline, the level cited for double-top confirmation
A rejection near the thu high at 0.8316 (38.2% fib) keeps the lower-highs trendline intact
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, below weekly open · RSI 37 · price 0.82704
Lower highs from 0.8395 week high, fresh low at 0.8264.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 week high fully unwound through the NY afternoon and Asia session as US yields slid, leaving the pair about 27 pips below the 0.8297 weekly open. Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales produced only a brief pop to the 0.8316 thu high, near the 38.2% level of the fib on the CPI reversal, before the NY session printed a fresh week low at 0.8264 on risk-off flows. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 37, the lower highs are intact and there is no divergence yet at the lows.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8316, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8264 week low exposes the 0.8250 round number
H1 close back above the 0.8297 weekly open breaks the lower highs sequence
Recovery through the 0.8316 thu high (38.2% fib) would neutralise the CPI-reversal downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
18:01 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's spike high · RSI 38 · price 0.82718
Lower highs from 0.8395, price pressing the week low.
Wednesday's CPI-driven push above Monday's high to 0.8395 was a false break: the move fully reversed into Thursday's Asia session as US yields slid. Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales lifted the pair to a 0.8316 lower high in the first hour of NY. That rally was rejected, and price is now back below EMA(20) and the 0.8297 weekly open. Price is testing the 0.8270 week low with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8270 week low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 0.8250 round number
Recovery back above EMA(20) and the 0.8297 weekly open would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 0.8316 lower high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Friday (Asia session) could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, below week open after failed CPI spike · RSI 38 · price 0.8284
Lower highs from 0.8395, fresh week low at 0.8270.
Wednesday's CPI spike in the NY session briefly broke above the early-week 0.8320–0.8348 range and reached the 0.8395 week high. It was fully unwound by Thursday's Asia session, leaving a false break and a run of lower highs. Thursday's hot PPI lifted price to the 0.8316 PPI high in the first hour of NY, but that met rejection as Treasury yields slid and AI-linked risk aversion hit the dollar, and price printed a fresh week low at 0.8270. Price now sits below the 0.8297 week open and EMA(20) near 0.8301, with RSI(14) around 38 and the 0.8278 Asia low the nearest reference beneath.
Support: 0.8278, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8316, 0.8333
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8270 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8245 area flagged in the digest
Reclaim of the 0.8297 week open and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs line and neutralise the downtrend read
Recovery through the 0.8316 PPI high and the fib 50% at 0.8333 of the CPI spike would put price back inside the early-week range
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri (high impact) could materially shift this read via Treasury yields
16:03 UTC
Downtrend since CPI spike, stalling at weekly open · RSI 41 · price 0.82983
Lower highs from 0.8395; Thursday range 0.8270–0.8316.
USD/CHF has round-tripped to the weekly open at 0.8297. Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 week high failed in NY hours, and the false break unwound through the Asia session as Treasury yields fell and AI-driven risk aversion spread. Thursday's hot PPI print lifted price only to a lower high at 0.8316, then supply took it below the asia low (0.8278) to a fresh week low at 0.8270 during NY hours before a rebound; price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8304 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.82974, 0.82779, 0.82704
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.83162, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8316 lower high and the 38.2% of the CPI spike fib (~0.8318) breaks the lower-highs sequence
A reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.8304 would be the first sign the post-CPI downtrend is stalling
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8297, then a break of the 0.8270 week low, extends the lower-low sequence below the asia low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend after Wednesday's spike reversal, basing near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.82939
Lower highs from 0.8395; Thursday range 0.8270–0.8316 with a wick below the range floor.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 in NY hours fully unwound into Thursday's Asia session as US yields fell, erasing the week's gains back to the 0.8297 week open. Hot PPI lifted the pair to the 0.8316 Thursday high, then NY selling pushed it to a 0.8270 week low before a sharp snap-back, a possible false break of the 0.8278 range floor. Price now sits just under the week open and below EMA(20) near 0.8305, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8305, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8270 week low negates the false break and extends lower lows toward the 0.8250 round number
Reclaim of 0.8305 ema20 and the 0.8316 thu high, the 38.2% of the week high-low fib, breaks the falling resistance and challenges the downtrend read
Holding above the 0.8297 week open keeps Thursday's 0.8270–0.8316 range intact
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Chair Warsh's speech (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395, fresh week low below the Asia low.
USD/CHF has fully unwound Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395. The pop above the 0.8350/0.8365 range cap failed during NY hours, and the heaviest selling came through Thursday's Asia session on dovish Fedspeak. The hot 12:30 GMT PPI lifted the pair only briefly to the 0.8316 data high before supply capped it, and the next bar broke the 0.8278 Asia low to a fresh 0.8272 week low. Price now sits below the 0.8297 week open and EMA(20) near 0.8303, with RSI(14) around 32 and a clean lower-highs sequence intact.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.8303, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8278 asia low would turn the break of that low into a false break
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.8303 (23.6% fib of the CPI high-to-week low leg) and the 0.8316 data high needed to break the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8272 week low exposes the 0.8250 round number, with the 0.8245 range floor just beneath
Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8316 below the 0.8395 spike; 0.8278–0.8316 range.
Wednesday's CPI break through the 0.8350 range cap ran to 0.8395 in the NY session, then fully reversed on dovish Fedspeak. The slide printed a week low at 0.8278 in Thursday's Asian session and took price back under the 0.8297 week open. Today's hot PPI spike stalled at the 0.8316 ppi high, below the 38.2% retracement at 0.8323, and the bar closed back on the 0.8291 ppi low. Price sits under a falling ema20 near 0.8309 with RSI(14) around 41, holding the 0.8278–0.8316 range beneath the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.8291, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8309, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8316 ppi high and the 38.2% fib at 0.8323 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8291 ppi low exposes the 0.8278 week low, which London tested again near 0.8281
Acceptance back above the 0.8297 week open and ema20 would neutralise the week's round trip
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing near week open · RSI 38 · price 0.83033
Wednesday's hot US CPI spike briefly cleared the 0.8350 range cap and set the CPI high at 0.8395. It then fully reversed on dovish Fedspeak and falling yields into a thu low at 0.8278 during Asia. London retested 0.8281 and held, and the soft Swiss PPI print helped lift price back to the 0.8297 week open. Price now sits at the 23.6% retracement of that drop, below EMA(20) near 0.8311 and the ema50 at 0.8322, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s toward 38 and lower highs capping each bounce since the 0.83135 bounce high.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.83135, 0.8322, 0.83365
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.83135 bounce high and EMA(20) breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the ema50 at 0.8322 and the 50% fib at 0.8337
Failure to hold the 0.8297 week open exposes the 0.8278 thu low; a break there extends the post-CPI drop
Reclaiming 0.8350 would return price to the pre-CPI range and neutralise the false break
11:02 UTC
Downtrend after CPI spike reversal, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.8296
Lower highs capping above a double test of 0.8278–0.8281.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike broke the 0.8350 range cap to 0.8395 in the NY session but fully reversed as dovish Fedspeak and falling yields hit USD. The slide extended through the Asia session today to the thu low at 0.8278, back below the tue low at 0.8313. Two tests of 0.8278–0.8281 held, but the London open bounce stalled at 0.8313 and the next lower high came in at 0.8306. Price now sits on the weekly open at 0.8297, under EMA(20) near 0.8312 and between the monday low at 0.8288 and those lower highs, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8306, 0.8313
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8278 thu low confirms a fresh lower-low beneath the double test
H1 close back above the 0.8313 tue low breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.8323 38.2% of the CPI reversal fib
Holding below the 0.8297 weekly open after the soft Swiss PPI keeps the 0.8288 monday low in focus
10:02 UTC
Downtrend from post-CPI high, momentum stalling near lows · RSI 35 · price 0.82958
Lower highs since the 0.8395 rejection; base forming 0.8278–0.8314.
USDCHF rallied from the 0.8297 weekly open to 0.8349 in Monday's London-NY session. Wednesday's hot US CPI then spiked it through the 0.8338 pre-CPI high to a 0.8395 week high, but the break failed as Treasury yields slumped and dovish Fedspeak reversed the full move, with today's Asia session extending to a 0.8278 week low. An early-London bounce stalled at 0.8314, at EMA(20) near 0.8313 and below the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI drop, and the London low at 0.8281 has held so far, with RSI(14) near 35 and price pinned just under the weekly open.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8313, 0.8338
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with yields steering the dollar more than the headlines
H1 close back above the 0.8297 weekly open and the 0.8313 ema20 would break the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8281 london low and 0.8278 week low extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.8338 pre-cpi high and the 38.2%–50% fib zone would undo the false break read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend after failed CPI spike, basing near week low · RSI 42 · price 0.82964
Lower highs from 0.8395 week high; Monday–Wednesday range floor lost, price back at week open.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair out of the 0.8313–0.8346 range during Wednesday's NY session to a week high at 0.8395. Dovish Fedspeak then unwound the entire CPI spike, a false break that ran through the range floor and the monday low into Thursday's Asia session, setting a week low at 0.8278. London retested that low at 0.8281 and was rejected, and price is now pinned at the 0.8297 week open. Price sits below both the ema20 (~0.8314, which capped the London bounce at 0.8314) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 42 off its Asia low and a soft Swiss PPI limiting franc follow-through.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8314, 0.8337
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 GMT (~3h40m) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 near 0.8314 breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 0.8395 week high
Acceptance back above 0.8337 (50% fib of the CPI spike) reopens the old 0.8346 range cap
Failure to hold the 0.8278 week low extends the lower-low sequence; holding the week open keeps a base forming above the monday low
08:02 UTC
Post-CPI reversal, price back at weekly open · RSI 45 · price 0.83009
Failed upside break, lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
Wednesday's hot US CPI lifted the pair out of the 0.8317–0.8338 Tuesday–Wednesday band to a 0.8395 week high in the NY session. Dovish Fed commentary and falling Treasury yields then reversed the whole move, and the selling ran through the Asia session to a 0.8278 week low before the soft Swiss PPI let the pair drift back to the weekly open around 0.8297–0.8301. Price is below EMA(20) near 0.8317 and capped by the 0.8314 Asian high on the CPI fade line, while RSI(14) has recovered to about 45 from below 30.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8314, 0.8338, 0.8395
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8314 Asian high and the CPI fade line puts the 38.2% retrace near 0.8323 and the 0.8338 pre-CPI high back in play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8297 exposes the 0.8278 week low; acceptance below it extends the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of 0.8338 pre-CPI high reopens the path toward the 0.8395 week high
07:04 UTC
Short-term down after failed CPI spike, bounce stalling · RSI 41 · price 0.83043
Failed upside break of range, new week low, rebound capped at former range floor.
Wednesday's hot US CPI lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8313–0.8350 range to a 0.8395 CPI high in the NY session. The move fully reversed as Treasury yields sank, and the slide ran through the Asia session to a 0.8278 week low below the weekly open. The early-London bounce has stalled at the 0.8313 range floor, below EMA(20) near 0.8320, and is hovering around the 23.6% retracement of the CPI reversal, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~41 from a mid-20s trough.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8287, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8350, 0.8395
What it said to watch
US retail sales and PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 0.8313 range floor and EMA(20) puts price back inside the pre-CPI range, with the 0.8350 range top next and the 0.8395 CPI high beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8297 weekly open exposes the 0.8287 monday low; a break of the 0.8278 week low confirms a lower low
Lower highs from 0.8395 CPI high; price back at weekly open.
The hot US CPI print drove a NY-hours spike to the 0.8395 CPI high on Wednesday, above the 0.8365–0.8380 range top. That move was fully unwound late in NY and through the Asia session as Treasury yields reversed, leaving a false break and a week low at 0.8278. Price now sits back at the 0.8297 weekly open, below EMA(20) near 0.8320. The bounce has stalled under the 23.6% fib at 0.8305, with RSI(14) recovering to ~41 from the low 30s.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8320, 0.8395
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.8320 (ema20 / 38.2% fib zone) would break the lower-high sequence from the CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.8297 weekly open and a break of the 0.8278 week low would extend the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the lower-highs trendline and the 23.6% fib at 0.8305 would mark the first repair of the post-CPI rejection
Lower highs off 0.8395, bounce from 0.8278 swing low.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 0.8331 to a 0.8395 cpi high during NY hours, but the break above the week's 0.8285–0.8350 band did not hold. Selling resumed after London close and extended through the Asia session as the dollar faded, cutting through the tuesday low at 0.8313 and the monday low at 0.8287 to a 0.8278 swing low. Price has since bounced back to the weekly open near 0.8297, still below the ema20 around 0.8330, with RSI(14) recovering to about 40 from near 30.
Support: 0.82974, 0.82872, 0.82779
Resistance: 0.83131, 0.8330, 0.8395
What it said to watch
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the weekly open and a break of the 0.8278 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close back above the cpi lower highs line near 0.8305 and the tuesday low at 0.8313 would ease the reversal read
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.8330 and the 38.2% retrace at 0.8323 would put the pair back inside the pre-CPI range
Failed upside break at 0.8395; lower highs into a fresh week low below the weekly open.
Monday's London-NY rally to 0.8349 settled into a 0.8313–0.8346 range until Wednesday's hot US CPI drove the pair through the 0.8380 17-month high to 0.8395. That move faded from late NY, and the sell-off extended through Thursday's Asia session, consistent with the digest's note that Treasury yields jumped and then reversed after CPI. The decline has erased the week's gain on a sequence of lower highs, leaving price at a 0.8278 week low below the Monday low and weekly open, with RSI(14) oversold near 28 and EMA(20) about 40 pips overhead near 0.8323, in line with the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI drop.
Support: 0.82779, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82872, 0.82974, 0.83234
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.8287 monday low and the 0.8297 weekly open keeps the false break read intact; an H1 close back above both points to a return into the prior range
An H1 close below the 0.8278 week low extends the post-CPI drop toward the 0.8250 round number
A rebound into the ema20 / 38.2% area near 0.8323 would be the first test of the lower highs line
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Wednesday's hot US CPI print lifted the pair through the 0.8365 range top to 0.8395 during NY hours. That break failed in the NY afternoon, and the unwind accelerated through Thursday's Asia session, taking out the weekly open and Monday's low to a fresh week low at 0.8278. Price sits roughly 45 pips below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 26, while the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop (~0.8323) clusters with the old range floor at 0.8313 and EMA(20) near 0.8327.
Support: 0.82779, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82974, 0.83131, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the weekly open at 0.8297 would mark the push below the week low as a false break.
Failure to hold the week low at 0.8278 leaves the 0.8250 round number as the next reference.
The range floor at 0.8313 and EMA20 near 0.8327 are the area to watch for rejection on any rebound; the lower highs line stays intact below roughly 0.8340.
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~9.7h) could materially shift this read.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike to the 0.8395 cpi high during NY hours has fully unwound. Supply took over late in NY, and the Asia session extended the slide to 0.8289, leaving price back on the 0.8297 weekly open and below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The move above the week's 0.8285-0.8350 band now reads as a false break: price has cut through the tuesday low at 0.8313 and printed lower highs off the CPI peak, with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI reversal near 0.8330 sitting just under the 0.8341 cpi fade low. RSI(14) near 31 reflects the speed of the reversal as Treasury yields faded from their post-CPI highs.
Support: 0.8297, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8341, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8287 weekly low would put price under the full week's range and confirm a lower-low
A return above the 0.8313 tuesday low and the 0.8315-0.8320 200-hour SMA zone would revive the prior range read
The 0.8330-0.8341 area (38.2% retracement / cpi fade low) is the zone to monitor for rejection on any rebound
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday (~11h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs, price back below prior range floor.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8330 pre-CPI base to a 0.8395 week high in the NY session. The whole move then unwound through late NY and the Thursday Asia session to 0.8304, back below the 0.8313 Tuesday low that marked the range floor and through the 0.8315-0.8320 area the breakout needed to hold. Post-CPI lower highs are stacking with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) at 34 is soft but not oversold, with the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8293 Monday low just below.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330, 0.8395
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 0.8313 range floor would ease the false-break read; the 0.8330 pre-CPI base and the 38.2% of the cpi reversal fib near 0.8339 sit above.
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8293 Monday low exposes the 0.8287 week-open wick low.
The Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales bundle could materially shift this read. A hot print would test the post-CPI lower highs line toward the 0.8395 week high.
False break above the 0.8338–0.8348 range top; price back at range lows.
Monday's London-led advance from the 0.8297 weekly open stalled near 0.8348. The pair then chopped between the 0.8313 tuesday low and the 0.8338 pre-cpi high before the hot US CPI print spiked it to the 0.8395 cpi high during NY hours. That entire leg has since unwound in a late-NY and Asia session slide to 0.8317, back below EMA(20) near 0.8343 and EMA(50), and through the 61.8% of the week advance fib, leaving the breakout as a false break. RSI(14) has dropped from above 80 at the high to ~36, while the 0.8315–0.8320 zone flagged in the CHF digest as the breakout-negation area is now being tested.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8338, 0.8343, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8313 tuesday low, near the 78.6% week advance fib, would expose the 0.8297 weekly open
Recovery above the 0.8338 pre-cpi high and the ema20 near 0.8343 would put price back inside the prior range top
A break above the post-cpi lower highs line would ease the rejection read; the 0.8395 cpi high remains the week's upper bound
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read