USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 21 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, third day of pullback from 0.8263 · RSI 36 · price 0.82078
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday, price under EMA20/EMA50.
The post-FOMC spike to 0.82638 marked the high of the window and price has bled lower since, with Monday's NY session driving the break beneath the 0.8225-0.8265 consolidation band and printing a monday low at 0.82062. Price now sits below both ema20 (0.8216) and ema50 (0.8224), while the monday high at 0.82389 has gone unchallenged since the London session — a clean sequence of lower highs. RSI(14) near 36 reflects profit-taking on a crowded short-CHF trade rather than fresh USD weakness, with the tape flattening into the Asia handover just above 0.8207.
Support: 0.82062, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8216, 0.8224, 0.82389
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.8216, and then the ema50 at 0.8224, would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.82062 monday low exposes the 0.8200 round number and the 0.81815 swing low
ADP 4-week average Tue 12:15 UTC and US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the near-term data risk to this range read
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT could materially reset the structure given consensus positioning
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's spike high; price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Price has drifted lower for a third session from the post-FOMC spike high at 0.82638 (week high), profit-taking on the hawkish-Fed move rather than a fresh CHF driver. The NY session on Monday cut through Friday's base to print 0.82053 (monday low), leaving the last close pinned under EMA20 near 0.8217 with the 0.82346 monday high capping the earlier bounce. RSI(14) around 33 sits at the low end of its weekly range without a divergence yet, and the 0.618 retracement of the FOMC impulse is exactly where price has stalled.
Support: 0.82053, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8217, 0.82346, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8217 ema20 would break the sequence of lower highs
Acceptance below the 0.8200 round number extends the lower-low pattern toward the 0.81815 prior low
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the events capable of resetting this read
21:05 UTC
Pullback lower, three sessions of lower highs · RSI 40 · price 0.82111
Lower highs from 0.82638; Monday printed a lower low at 0.82062.
The hawkish FOMC bar lifted price 70 pips off 0.81752 and Thursday's Asia hours extended to the 0.82638 week high, but every session since has carved a lower high. Monday's London push to 0.82389 was rejected and the NY session faded it to a fresh 0.82062 low, taking price under both the EMA20 at 0.82192 and the EMA50 around 0.82248 — the first EMA cross of the week — with RSI(14) near 40. Price is now parked between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the FOMC impulse, consistent with the digest's read of profit-taking off the 16-month high rather than fresh direction.
Support: 0.82062, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82192, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.82250 and the ema20 would invalidate the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.82062 monday low and the 0.82000 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the pre-fomc shelf at 0.81815
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's only top-tier USD data and could reset this range
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT is the dominant CHF catalyst; a hawkish tilt would pressure the 0.82638 week high read
Lower highs since the 0.8264 spike high, holding a 0.8206-0.8239 band.
Price has drifted lower for a third session off the 0.82638 week high printed in the post-FOMC surge, and now sits below both the H1 EMA20 near 0.8219 and EMA50, with RSI(14) parked in the mid-30s rather than cycling back above 50. The NY session yesterday did the damage, driving the market through the weekly open and into the 0.82062 monday low, with profit-taking on crowded short-CHF positioning the stated driver. Since then the tape has compressed into a tight 0.8206-0.8216 band just above the 0.8200 round number, the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC impulse.
Support: 0.82062, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8219, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 0.82190 ema20 would end the sequence of lower highs; the monday high at 0.82389 is the next area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the 0.82062 monday low and the 0.8200 round number would extend the pullback toward the pre-fomc base at 0.81815
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the two events capable of resetting this H1 range
19:02 UTC
Corrective drift lower off the week high · RSI 36 · price 0.82128
Lower highs since Thursday, Monday capped inside 0.8206-0.8239.
The FOMC hike bar drove the dominant move of the window, ripping from the pre-fomc low at 0.8175 to a 0.8263 week high in two hours; every session since has printed lower highs as profit-taking and softer Treasury yields trimmed the extension. Monday's London-NY stretch failed at the 0.8239 monday high and rolled back under the 0.8220 ema20, with the pair now pinned near 0.8213 after a third straight down session. RSI(14) at ~36 is at the low end of its four-day range without a divergence forming.
Support: 0.8206, 0.8185, 0.8175
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8239, 0.8263
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8220 ema20 would break the lower-high sequence off the week high
Loss of the 0.8206 monday low would extend the pullback toward the 0.8185 prior range
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the catalysts that can reprice this range
18:03 UTC
Corrective pullback inside a larger uptrend, momentum down · RSI 40 · price 0.82131
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.82638 week high; price under EMA20 and EMA50.
The dominant move of the window was the vertical FOMC bar on Wednesday's NY session, which lifted USDCHF from 0.81815 to a 0.82638 week high; everything since has been a three-session drift lower on profit-taking, with each bounce capped at a lower high. Monday's push to 0.82389 was rejected early in the NY session and price has spent the last six hours pinned under the EMA20 near 0.82212, having traded a 0.82062 monday low that sits just under the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC impulse. RSI(14) at ~40 reflects the corrective tone without reaching oversold.
Support: 0.82062, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82212, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.82212 ema20 would break the sequence of lower highs off the 0.82638 week high
Failure to hold the 0.82062 monday low exposes the 0.82000 round number and, beyond it, the 0.81815 pre-fomc base
Wednesday's US flash PMIs and Thursday's SNB decision are the scheduled events that could reset this consolidation
Lower highs since Monday's high, price pinned at the week low.
USDCHF opened the week at the 0.8219 weekly open, stretched to 0.8239 monday high through the London session and has leaked lower since, a third consecutive session of profit-taking from last week's Fed-driven push to the 0.8264 prior high. Price now trades below EMA(20) with RSI(14) around 38, and the 0.8206 week low has been tested twice in the NY session without a decisive break. Range remains contained — this week's entire swing is roughly 33 pips against a 10-pip H1 ATR, so the post-FOMC leg is digesting rather than reversing.
Support: 0.8206, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.8219, 0.8239, 0.8264
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.8219 weekly open would negate the lower-high sequence off 0.8239 monday high
Sustained break of the 0.8206 week low exposes the 0.8185 prior range floor
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the events capable of resetting this read
Lower highs since Thursday, capped under the week high.
The dominant move in this window remains Wednesday's hawkish-Fed impulse, a single-hour jump from 0.81752 that carried into the 0.82638 16-month high, and everything since has been sideways-to-lower digestion of it. Monday's Asia/London hours edged up to a 0.82389 week high before the NY session faded it, printing a 0.82062 session low and leaving the 0.82159 friday low sitting right at price. RSI(14) has cycled down to ~41 with price back under EMA(20) near 0.82239, so the lower-high sequence off 0.82638 is still intact.
Support: 0.82062, 0.82159, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.82239, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.82239 ema20 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence off the 16-mo high
Failure to hold the 0.82062 session low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 0.81850 key pivot
Acceptance above the 0.82389 week high re-opens the 0.82638 area
SNB decision and press conference Thursday 07:30/08:00 GMT is the main scheduled risk to this consolidation read
Lower highs since last week's spike high, fresh low below friday low.
The pair has bled lower since the Fed-driven spike high at 0.8264 printed last week, with the 0.8225–0.8264 consolidation band giving way as Monday's London session traded through Friday's 0.8216 low to a session low at 0.8206. Price sits under EMA(20) near 0.8222 and EMA(50), and each attempt back toward the average — including the Monday high at 0.8239 — has met rejection. RSI(14) at ~38 confirms the shift lower without yet reaching oversold, with the 0.8200 round number the next reference under the session low.
Support: 0.8206, 0.8200, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.8216, 0.8222, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.8222 (ema20) and reclaim of the 0.8216 friday low would negate the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.8200 round number puts the 0.8185 pivot low in play as the next structural reference
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 GMT plus the press conference language on the franc is the main event risk for this structure
US flash PMIs Wednesday 13:45 UTC could materially shift the read given the USD-side driver
Consolidation under 0.8264 week high; lower highs since Thursday, Monday range 0.8208-0.8239.
The dominant move of the window was the single impulse bar into the hawkish FOMC hike, which took price from 0.81752 to the 0.82638 week high in two hours; everything since has been consolidation in a 0.8208-0.8264 band. Lower highs have built through Thursday and Friday's NY sessions, and Monday's quiet Asia-into-London trade has price pinned at 0.82243, marginally below the H1 EMA20 near 0.8227 with RSI(14) flat in the high-40s. Monday low at 0.82077 marks the floor of the current range, while 0.82389 caps the day so far.
Support: 0.82077, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8227 ema20 and then 0.82389 day high would re-engage the 0.82638 week high
Failure to hold 0.82077 monday low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.8200 round number
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC are the events capable of breaking this consolidation
Lower highs since Wednesday's spike high, first lower low vs Friday's base.
The single hawkish-FOMC hour bar mid-window took price from 0.8175 to 0.8250 and set the 0.8264 week high; everything since has been a sideways-to-lower grind, with each attempt capped along a chain of lower highs. Today's London session pushed through Friday's low at 0.8216 and printed a 0.8208 session low before stabilising at 0.8214, keeping price under EMA20 around 0.8225 with RSI(14) near 38. The range floor from last week's pre-FOMC congestion sits down at 0.8185, the level that would undo the post-FOMC structure.
Support: 0.8208, 0.8216, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.8225, 0.8239, 0.8264
What it said to watch
Hourly acceptance back above the 0.8225 ema20 would neutralise today's lower-low read
Failure to hold 0.8208 session low exposes the 0.8185 pre-fomc gap area
A close above the 0.8239 day high returns the 0.8264 week high into play
SNB decision and press conference Thursday plus US flash PMIs Wednesday can reset this range quickly
USDCHF has ground lower since the FOMC spike high at 0.82638 last Wednesday, printing successively lower highs into each session; Monday's Asia-into-London drift up to 0.82389 stalled and the NY hours have now pushed price through Friday's low at 0.82159 to 0.82078. Price is below EMA20 (0.82265) with RSI(14) near 40 and sitting in the 50-61.8% retracement band of the FOMC impulse, consistent with the Dollar consolidating post-Fed gains rather than extending them.
Support: 0.82078, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82159, 0.82265, 0.82389
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.82265 would negate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the day low at 0.82078 opens the 0.82000 psych level and, below that, the pre-fomc 0.81815 area
Reclaiming friday low at 0.82159 as support would restore the 0.82159-0.82389 consolidation band
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Sideways after last week's impulse, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.82225
Consolidation between 0.8216 and 0.8239, lower highs from 0.8264.
The dominant move of the window was the single-bar hawkish-Fed repricing that lifted price off the 0.81752 gap low to 0.82638 inside the NY session, and everything since has been distribution of that impulse: lower highs into Friday and a stall around the 38.2%–50% retracement zone. Monday's Asia and early London hours have held a tight 0.8217–0.8239 band, with price closing back below EMA(20) near 0.8229 and RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s. The friday low at 0.82159 has contained three probes and remains the pivot for this consolidation.
Support: 0.82159, 0.82091, 0.81752
Resistance: 0.8229, 0.82389, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8239 monday high would break the lower-highs line and re-open 0.82638
Loss of the 0.82159 friday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.82091
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 0.8229 would neutralise the current downward drift
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC plus US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday, basing above the week low at 0.8216.
The 68-pip hourly candle on the hawkish Fed decision broke 0.8180 congestion and carried to 0.82638, a 16-month high, but every attempt since has printed a lower high and Friday's NY session bled back to 0.82159. Monday's Asia session opened at 0.82187 and ground up to a 0.82346 session high before rejection there left price back under EMA(20) near 0.8231 in early London hours, with RSI(14) at 46 mid-range. Price is sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the FOMC impulse, with the weekly open at 0.82201 acting as the near pivot.
Support: 0.82201, 0.82159, 0.8209
Resistance: 0.8231, 0.82346, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82346 session high and reclaim of ema20 would re-engage the post-FOMC leg toward 0.82638 prior high
Loss of the 0.82159 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.82090
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the events capable of breaking this consolidation
Higher lows since Monday's open, capped below 0.82389.
The dominant move in this window was the hawkish Fed hike, which lifted USDCHF 68 pips in a single hour into the 0.82638 window high before Friday's NY session bled the pair back to the 0.82159 week low under a series of lower highs. Since Monday's open at 0.82187 price has ground higher through Asia and into early London, printing a sequence of higher lows and pinning to EMA(20) around 0.82316, with EMA(50) still overhead. The 0.82389 week high was rejected on the last full hour and RSI(14) at 47.8 sits mid-range, so the post-Fed shelf between the weekly open and 0.82389 remains intact.
Support: 0.82187, 0.82159
Resistance: 0.82389, 0.82508, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.82187 weekly open would put the 0.82159 week low back in play and break Monday's higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.82389 week high reopens the 0.82508 fri supply band and the 0.82638 window high
US S&P Global flash PMIs Wednesday 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC are the events most capable of resetting this range read
Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 UTC today sits inside the next few bars
The dominant move of the window was a single-hour post-FOMC impulse from 0.81752 to 0.82638 during the NY session, and everything since has been sideways digestion between the 0.8216 range floor and that week high. Price faded into Friday's close to 0.82159, and the thin Monday Asia session has crept back to 0.82308 — just above a flattening EMA(20) near 0.8230 but still under EMA(50) around 0.8242, with RSI(14) in the low 40s after the rollover. Carry demand tied to the hawkish Fed repricing explains the underlying firmness, but the consolidation has held for three sessions.
Support: 0.82187, 0.82159, 0.82295
Resistance: 0.82323, 0.82598, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.82638 week high would resume the post-FOMC impulse structure
Loss of 0.82159 friday low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower low from the weekly open at 0.82187
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.8230 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's week high, base holding above Friday's low.
The dominant move of the week came in Wednesday's late-NY session, when the hawkish Fed decision drove a single-bar expansion from 0.8182 to 0.8250 and carried on to the week high at 0.82638 on Thursday. Since then it has been a slow bleed of lower highs: Friday's NY session gave back the advance to 0.82159 and RSI(14) has cycled down to the low 40s with price capped by the EMA20 near 0.82310. Monday's Asia session has ground back to 0.8230, right into that EMA20 and the 38.2% retracement of the post-Fed impulse.
Support: 0.82159, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8231, 0.82598, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 0.82310 ema20 would end the lower-highs sequence and reopen 0.82598
Loss of 0.82159 friday low puts the 0.82000 round number back in view and confirms a lower low
Fed's Goolsbee today and US PMIs Wednesday are the near-term USD inputs for this range
SNB decision Thursday could materially reprice the CHF leg and invalidate the current consolidation read
Post-breakout consolidation with lower highs into week low.
The dominant move of the week was a single-bar breakout out of the 0.8180/0.8199 shelf during the NY session on the hawkish Fed hike, which carried price to a 16-month high at 0.82638 before rejection there capped every subsequent attempt. Price then spent three sessions grinding sideways under 0.8260 and broke lower on Friday as US 10y yields slipped back off 5%, printing the week low at 0.82160 and closing the week beneath the H1 EMA(20). Monday's Asia session has been inert either side of 0.8222, still trading below both EMA(20) near 0.82310 and EMA(50) around 0.8240, with RSI(14) in the high 30s after cycling down from overbought.
Support: 0.8216, 0.8200, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8231, 0.8250, 0.82638
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.82310 ema20 would repair the pullback and put the 0.82500 range floor back in play
Loss of the 0.82160 week low on a closing basis confirms extension of the lower-high sequence
Rejection or acceptance at the 0.82638 week high defines whether the post-FOMC breakout is still live
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB assessment Thu 07:30 UTC can materially reshape this consolidation