USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 22 September 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

23:04 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 50 · price 0.82061

Lower highs since Monday, basing above Tuesday's low.

Price has traded a clean sequence of lower highs since Monday's session open — 0.82346, then the spike to the 0.82246 tue high that immediately failed and dumped 40 pips into the London morning, a false break that defined the week's down leg into the 0.81836 tue low. The NY session recovered as far as the 0.82195 ny high before fading back, and the pair now sits pinned to the ema20 at 0.82057 with RSI(14) flat at 50, consistent with the digest's read of a fourth session of CHF recovery keeping USDCHF under the 0.8200 round number for much of Tuesday. EMA50 near 0.8212 still caps the rebounds.

Support: 0.82057, 0.8200, 0.81836

Resistance: 0.82195, 0.82246, 0.82346

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close above the 0.82246 tue high would break the lower highs sequence that has held all week
  • Loss of the 0.82000 round number and then the 0.81836 tue low would confirm a fresh lower low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the next test of the hawkish-Fed bid and could reset this range
  • SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC plus the 08:00 UTC press conference is the dominant event risk for this read

22:03 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 47 · price 0.82044

Lower highs since Monday, base holding above 0.8200.

Price has traded a steady sequence of lower highs since the weekly open at 0.82187, with the dominant move of the week coming in Tuesday's London session — a 40-pip slide from 0.82246 to the 0.81833 tue low as CHF firmed for a fourth day. The NY session bought that back to 0.82230 but the rebound was rejected there and price has since faded to close just under EMA20, with RSI(14) stuck in the mid-40s rather than confirming either side. The 0.82000 psych area is now the pivot the last ten bars have been hinging on.

Support: 0.8200, 0.81833

Resistance: 0.82246, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above 0.82246 day high would break the lower-high sequence off Monday
  • Sustained loss of 0.82000 psych re-exposes the 0.81833 tue low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the event risks that could reshape this range read
  • Repeated closes back above the weekly open at 0.82187 would neutralise the downtrend read

21:05 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 48 · price 0.82048

Lower highs all week, shallow higher low after Tuesday's flush.

Price has ground lower every session since the 0.82389 week high, with the dominant move of the week coming in Tuesday's London hours — an 0.82246-to-0.81833 flush as the franc firmed for a fourth day and the dollar eased off its highs. The bounce back into the NY session stalled at the 0.82230 session high, just under the weekly open, and the last closed bar sits at 0.82048, marginally below EMA(20) at 0.82075 and well under EMA(50) near 0.82151. RSI(14) at 47.5 is mid-range, with the 0.81963–0.82230 band containing the last ten hours.

Support: 0.8200, 0.81833

Resistance: 0.82075, 0.8223, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close above the 0.82075 ema20 and then the 0.82230 session high would break the lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.82000 round number reopens the 0.81833 week low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC can both reset this range read within the next bars

20:03 UTC

Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 47 · price 0.82036

Lower highs into Tuesday, holding above the week low.

Price has traded under the weekly open at 0.82187 all of Tuesday, with the dominant leg of the week a slide from Monday's 0.82389 into the 0.81833 week low during the NY session, in line with the four-day CHF recovery as the Dollar's hawkish-Fed bid stalled. The late-NY rebound stopped at the 0.82230 tue high and faded back under the H1 ema20 near 0.82074, leaving price pinned around the 0.8200 psych area with RSI(14) mid-40s. Lower highs from Monday remain intact and pullbacks have been capped rather than absorbed at the ema20.

Support: 0.8200, 0.8193, 0.81833

Resistance: 0.82074, 0.82187, 0.8223

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close above 0.82230 tue high would break the week's lower-highs sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.8200 psych area re-exposes the 0.81833 week low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr after could reprice the front end and reset this range
  • SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC plus press conference is the larger structural risk to the 0.8184-0.8223 consolidation

18:03 UTC

Downtrend, corrective bounce off the day low · RSI 52 · price 0.82122

Lower highs since Monday, double bottom at 0.8183 with recovery back through EMA20.

Lower highs have defined the week since Monday's 0.82389 week high, and today's push to 0.82246 was rejected — a false break that flushed to a 0.81833 day low in London hours as CHF extended a fourth session of recovery on a softer USD, with the SNB's readiness-to-intervene warning the offset. NY hours reclaimed the 0.82000 round number and price sits just above EMA20 at 0.82082 but is still capped by EMA50 at 0.82159, RSI(14) back at 52 from the mid-30s. The double bottom at 0.8183 is now the reference low for the week, with ATR(14) near 13 pips.

Support: 0.82082, 0.82002, 0.81833

Resistance: 0.82159, 0.82246, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 0.82159 ema50 and then 0.82246 would break the week's lower-high sequence
  • Loss of the 0.82000 round number reopens the 0.81833 day low and the double bottom there
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read

17:03 UTC

Downtrend, momentum stalling after flush · RSI 53 · price 0.82161

Lower highs all week, today's lower low reclaimed.

Since Monday's 0.82638 week high the H1 series has printed lower highs into every session, with the week's dominant leg lower coming in the NY session today: price broke the 0.8200 round number and flushed to a 0.81836 session low before fully recovering, closing back above the EMA(20) at 0.8208 and now pressing the 0.82162 EMA(50). That reversal lines up with the digest's read of softer USD on risk-on flows and lower crude after four sessions of CHF recovery off 16-month lows. RSI(14) has cycled back to the low-50s from oversold territory, so the downside momentum that defined Monday through today's London hours has flattened rather than reversed.

Support: 0.82082, 0.8200, 0.81836

Resistance: 0.82246, 0.82346, 0.82638

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close above the 0.82246 day high would break the week's sequence of lower highs; beyond that the 0.82346 prior day high and 0.82638 week high frame the upside
  • Failure to hold the 0.8200 round number re-exposes the 0.81836 session low and confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
  • Loss of the EMA(20) near 0.82082 would negate the recovery leg
  • US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the events capable of resetting this structure

16:02 UTC

Downtrend, momentum fading after today's low · RSI 57 · price 0.82198

Lower highs since Monday; 0.8200 reclaimed after false break.

USD/CHF has ground lower all week: Monday's session capped at the 0.82389 mon high and Tuesday's London hours broke the 0.8200 psych level to a 0.81836 day low, extending a fourth session of franc recovery as a softer dollar and two-week lows in crude took the shine off the post-Fed bid. The NY session has reclaimed 0.8200 and price sits at 0.82198, roughly mid-way through the retracement of the 0.82638 prior high to 0.81836 decline, with RSI(14) back near 57. Price has recovered EMA(20) around 0.8208 and is pressing EMA(50) near 0.8217, but the descending sequence of lower highs into the 0.82246 day high is still intact.

Support: 0.8200, 0.81836

Resistance: 0.82246, 0.82389, 0.82638

What it said to watch

  • An hourly close back under 0.8200 re-exposes the 0.81836 day low
  • Acceptance above the 0.82246 day high breaks the lower-highs line and puts 0.82389 mon high back in play
  • Fed's Barkin within the hour, then SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC — either can reprice this structure

15:02 UTC

Downtrend on the week, momentum stabilising · RSI 47 · price 0.8208

Sequence of lower highs and lower lows, basing above 0.8200.

USDCHF has ground lower since this week's open near 0.8219, each bounce capped beneath the prior one — the NY rejection at 0.82246 yesterday was followed by a fast flush to the 0.81836 week low. The fourth straight session of franc recovery lines up with softer US second-tier data (Richmond Fed -2) and lower crude trimming the post-Fed dollar premium. Price has since reclaimed the 0.8200 round number and sits marginally above EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 47, while the week high at 0.82389 still marks the top of the range.

Support: 0.8200, 0.81836

Resistance: 0.82171, 0.82246, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • An hourly close above the 0.82171 prior high would break the week's lower-high sequence, with the 0.82246 ny rejection area next
  • Failure to hold the 0.8200 round number re-exposes the 0.81836 week low
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read

14:02 UTC

Downtrend, momentum stalling after week low · RSI 45 · price 0.82012

Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, capped by EMA20.

Price has ground lower all week from Monday's 0.82389 week high, with each London and NY session printing a lower high and the EMA20 near 0.82041 capping every attempt back up — the fourth session of CHF recovery flagged in the macro digest, helped by a softer oil tape and easing US yields. The sharp leg into the 0.81836 week low came in the European hours of today's session, after which price has recovered roughly 18 pips and is stalling just under the EMA20. RSI(14) at 45 has cycled between 35 and 60 since Monday without a bullish divergence at the week low, so the downside impulse has decelerated rather than reversed.

Support: 0.81836, 0.81752

Resistance: 0.82041, 0.82246, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close above the 0.82246 day high would break this week's lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.81836 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.81752 prior low
  • Reclaiming and holding the EMA20 near 0.82041 would neutralise the intraweek downtrend read
  • Fed speakers today (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20, Barkin 17:00 UTC) and the SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC are the events most likely to reset this structure

13:03 UTC

Downtrend, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 45 · price 0.82029

Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, price capped at EMA20.

Price has traded under the weekly open at 0.82187 since Monday's London session, and this week's drop accelerated in the London-NY transition today when the push to 0.82246 was rejected and unwound 41 pips to a day low of 0.81833 — consistent with the CHF recovery off 16-month lows as softer oil capped US yields and the SNB's intervention warning only slowed, rather than turned, the franc bounce. The bounce back to 0.82029 has stalled directly at the EMA20 (0.82048), which has acted as the cap on each attempt over the last two sessions. Lower highs from Monday's 0.82389 through today's 0.82246 define the dominant structure, with RSI(14) mid-40s and no divergence at the low.

Support: 0.8200, 0.81833

Resistance: 0.82048, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the weekly open at 0.82187 would break the lower highs sequence and invalidate the downtrend read
  • Loss of the 0.82000 round number and a break of the 0.81833 day low confirms a fresh lower low
  • Sustained trade above the ema20 at 0.82048 would put the week high at 0.82389 back in play
  • US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC, then the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC, can materially reset this structure

12:03 UTC

Downtrend, fourth-session slide extending · RSI 39 · price 0.8192

Lower highs off 0.82638, consolidation floor broken.

USDCHF has ground lower for a fourth straight session since the 0.82638 post-Fed spike high, with Monday's week high at 0.82389 and today's day high at 0.82246 both leaving lower highs. The London session today broke the 0.8200-0.8225 consolidation floor and printed a session low at 0.81836 — roughly an 80% retracement of the Fed-decision impulse — as the post-hike dollar rally stalls on softer US yields and lower crude. Price sits under the ema20 at 0.82042 with RSI(14) near 39 and no divergence in the sequence yet.

Support: 0.81836, 0.81752

Resistance: 0.82042, 0.82246, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.82042 would break the lower-highs sequence running from 0.82389
  • Failure to hold the 0.81836 session low exposes the 0.81752 pre-fed low
  • SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this read

11:02 UTC

Downtrend, extending lower · RSI 35 · price 0.81857

Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, fresh break below the week's base.

Price has ground lower all week from the 0.82389 week high, and the London session today accelerated it: rejection at 0.82246 was followed by a 40-pip impulse bar that broke the 0.82000 round number and printed a session low at 0.81833. That keeps price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35, the weakest of the four-day slide, consistent with the digest's read of post-FOMC dollar gains stalling as Hormuz/risk-on headlines knock US yields. The 0.82000 handle, which capped and floored the last two days of consolidation, is now overhead resistance.

Support: 0.81833, 0.81752, 0.8155

Resistance: 0.8200, 0.82171, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the 0.82000 round number would negate the breakout and restore the prior consolidation read
  • Failure to hold 0.81833 session low opens the 0.81752 swing low and the 0.81550 range base flagged as this week's lower boundary
  • Fed speakers today (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20, Barkin 17:00 UTC) and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
  • Reclaiming 0.82171 prior high would break the lower-highs sequence

10:03 UTC

Downtrend, accelerating lower · RSI 34 · price 0.81881

Lower highs / lower lows since the post-FOMC peak, 0.8200 now broken.

Price has ground out lower highs and lower lows since the 0.82638 post-FOMC spike high on Thursday, with the 0.8210 shelf that held through Monday giving way during London hours today — the bounce to the 0.82246 day high was rejected and the next two bars broke the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8190 shelf in one move. That fits the digest read of a stalling post-Fed dollar rally as US yields eased and risk appetite improved, leaving a fourth straight down session. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.8205 and EMA(50) near 0.8213 with RSI(14) at ~34, the lowest of the week but not yet at an extreme.

Support: 0.81836, 0.81752, 0.8155

Resistance: 0.8200, 0.82053, 0.82246

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.8200 round number, and above EMA(20) at 0.8205, would negate the break lower
  • Failure to hold the 0.81836 day low exposes the pre-fomc low at 0.81752, then the 0.8155 range floor
  • US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC, with SNB Thursday 07:30 UTC behind it, can materially shift this read

09:03 UTC

Corrective downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.82086

Lower highs since Monday, 0.8200 floor holding.

USDCHF has bled lower for a fourth session, sliding from Monday's high at 0.8239 to a week low at 0.8200 as profit-taking after last week's post-Fed 0.8263 peak and improved risk appetite around UNGA diplomacy headlines trimmed dollar gains. The London morning push up to the session high at 0.8225 was rejected within the hour, leaving price back on EMA(20) near 0.8209 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and ATR(14) compressed to roughly 7.5 pips. The sequence of lower highs built through Monday's NY session is still intact while 0.8200 holds.

Support: 0.8200, 0.8190, 0.8155

Resistance: 0.8225, 0.8239, 0.8255

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close below the 0.8200 week low exposes the 0.8190 next shelf and, beyond it, the 0.8155 range base
  • Reclaiming the 0.8225 session high and the lower highs line would negate the four-day decline, with 0.8239 monday high then the 0.8255 range high above
  • SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC can materially reset this structure

08:02 UTC

Downtrend, corrective pullback, momentum flattening · RSI 41 · price 0.82083

Lower highs since Monday's London high, compressing above the week low.

This week opened at 0.82187 and the Monday London push to the 0.82389 week high was rejected, with the NY session unwinding the move to 0.82062 and the Asia session today printing a fresh 0.82002 week low — a fourth consecutive session of USD profit-taking off last week's 0.8263 post-Fed peak, per the macro read. Price has since coiled in a 0.82002–0.82172 band and is trading just under EMA(20) at 0.8211, which has capped every bounce since Monday's NY hours. RSI(14) near 40 with no positive divergence off the new low; the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the 0.82638–0.82002 decline sits at 0.82152–0.82245, overlapping the weekly open.

Support: 0.82002, 0.8185, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.8211, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.82187 weekly open would break the lower-high sequence off 0.82389
  • Failure to hold the 0.82002 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.8185 pivot
  • Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 0.8211 would neutralise the intraweek downtrend read
  • US flash PMIs Wednesday 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC are the events capable of resetting this structure

07:02 UTC

Downtrend, grinding lower at slowing pace · RSI 44 · price 0.82083

Lower highs, lower lows since Thursday's peak; tight 0.8200-0.8217 coil today.

The week's dominant move was the post-FOMC spike into 0.8264 last Wednesday's NY session, and price has bled lower ever since — a fourth consecutive down session has price back at 0.8208, below both the EMA(20) around 0.8211 and the weekly open at 0.8219. Monday's high at 0.82389 capped the only meaningful bounce attempt, and today's Asia/early-London hours produced a session low at 0.82002 before a shallow recovery into the 0.82172 session high, with a softer dollar on risk-positive diplomatic headlines the stated driver. RSI(14) at ~44 has cycled in the 35-55 band since Monday without reaching oversold, matching the small 6.5-pip ATR and the compressed range.

Support: 0.82002, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.82172, 0.8211, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Failure to hold 0.82002 confirms another lower-low and exposes the pre-fomc low at 0.81815
  • An hourly close back above the 0.82172 session high and the 0.8211 ema20 would question the lower-highs sequence; above 0.82389 (monday high) it breaks
  • Wednesday 13:45 GMT US flash S&P Global PMIs (Services f/c 56) are the next scheduled catalyst for this read
  • SNB decision and press conference Thursday 07:30/08:00 GMT, expected hold at 0%, is the key CHF-side risk to the current structure

06:02 UTC

Downtrend, grinding lower with slowing momentum · RSI 40 · price 0.82049

Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high; tight Asia-session compression above the week low.

USDCHF has held below the weekly open at 0.82187 since Monday's London high at 0.82389, with the dominant leg down coming through the Monday London-NY transition and NY session as the dollar eased on risk-on headlines ahead of the US-China summit — a fourth straight session of franc recovery off last week's 0.82638 high. The lower highs have capped every bounce, and price is trading under EMA20 near 0.82090 with RSI(14) parked in the high-30s rather than reaching oversold. Tuesday's Asia session has compressed into a 0.82002-0.82107 band directly above the week low, ranges narrowing to roughly 5 pips per bar.

Support: 0.82002, 0.8185

Resistance: 0.8209, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.82187 weekly open would break the lower-highs sequence and invalidate the downtrend read
  • Failure to hold the 0.82002 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 0.81850 pivot
  • Reclaiming EMA20 near 0.82090 on a closing basis is the first sign the slide is stalling
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the next events capable of resetting this structure

05:03 UTC

Downtrend, grinding lower-lows · RSI 34 · price 0.82008

Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, holding under EMA20.

USDCHF has bled lower for a fourth session, unwinding the post-FOMC spike that printed 0.82638 last Wednesday; the pair now sits on the 0.8200 week low with price capped beneath the EMA20 at 0.8209 and the weekly open at 0.82187 unrecovered. The dominant leg of this week came in the London-NY window on Monday, where 0.82389 was rejected and each bounce since has topped out lower — consistent with the risk-on dollar easing flagged into the US-China summit. RSI(14) near 34 reflects sustained downside pressure without an extreme, and hourly ranges have compressed to roughly 5-7 pips into the Asia session.

Support: 0.82002, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.8209, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the 0.8209 ema20 would break the lower-high sequence off Monday's high
  • Failure to hold the 0.82002 week low confirms continuation toward the 0.81815 pre-fomc low area
  • Reclaiming the 0.82187 weekly open would neutralise this week's downtrend read
  • US PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the events most likely to reshape this structure

04:02 UTC

Downtrend, third day of pullback · RSI 41 · price 0.82038

Lower highs and lower lows off 0.8263, now compressing at the lows.

The dominant move of the window was the single-bar FOMC repricing that carried price from 0.8175 to the 0.8263 week high; everything since has been a controlled fade, with Monday's London and NY sessions carving lower highs from 0.82389 down to the 0.8210 area. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8208 and is pinned against the session low at 0.82027, just under the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC impulse, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and no divergence yet. Asian-session ranges have compressed to a few pips, consolidation directly on top of the 0.8200 round number.

Support: 0.82027, 0.8200, 0.81752

Resistance: 0.8208, 0.82389, 0.82638

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the 0.8208 ema20 would break the sequence of lower highs
  • Loss of the 0.82027 session low and the 0.8200 round number extends the pullback toward the 0.8185 area, with the 0.8175 prior low the deeper reference
  • A reclaim of 0.82389 (monday high) would put the 0.8263 week high back in play
  • SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT can both reset this range read within the next sessions

03:02 UTC

Corrective drift lower, lower highs · RSI 39 · price 0.82068

Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's spike high, capped by EMA20.

The dominant move of the window was the single FOMC hour on Wednesday that carried USDCHF from 0.8175 to the 0.8264 week high; everything since has been a slow bleed inside a descending channel. Monday's NY session faded the 0.8239 high and the Asia session has price pinned below EMA20 at 0.8211, hovering just above the 0.8204 session low — roughly the 61.8% retracement of that FOMC impulse — with RSI(14) near 38. Ranges have compressed hard, ATR is under 8 pips, consistent with the digest's read of profit-taking rather than a directional catalyst.

Support: 0.8204, 0.8194, 0.8177

Resistance: 0.8211, 0.8239, 0.8264

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above EMA20 at 0.8211 and then the 0.8239 monday high would end the lower-highs sequence
  • Loss of the 0.8204 session low exposes the 78.6% fib at 0.8194 and the 0.8177 spike low
  • US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the events capable of resetting this consolidation

02:02 UTC

Corrective downtrend after FOMC spike, momentum flattening · RSI 39 · price 0.82099

Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.82638 peak; last five bars compressed in a 5-pip Asian band.

The single dominant bar of the window is Wednesday's NY-session FOMC hour, which lifted price from 0.81815 to 0.82495 on the hawkish dot plot before the high printed at 0.82638 the next morning. Since then it has been three sessions of lower highs: Monday's push stalled at 0.82389 and the NY session sold it into 0.82053, roughly the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC impulse. Price is trading under EMA(20) near 0.82130 with RSI(14) at 39 and the last few Asia bars coiled in a 5-pip band above 0.82053.

Support: 0.82053, 0.8200, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.8213, 0.82159, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • An hourly close back above 0.82159 (friday low) and the ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence off 0.82638
  • Failure to hold 0.82053 (monday low) confirms another lower low and exposes the 0.82000 round number
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the next catalysts capable of resetting this consolidation

01:03 UTC

Corrective downtrend off 0.82638 high · RSI 41 · price 0.82063

Lower highs / lower lows since Wednesday, tight overnight consolidation at range lows.

USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since the post-FOMC spike topped at 0.82638 last Wednesday, and Monday's NY session did the damage this week, dragging price from 0.8235 to 0.8206 as profit-taking on the 16-month high extended into a third day. Price now sits below EMA20 near 0.8213 and back under the 0.82187 weekly open, with RSI(14) around 41 and ATR compressed to roughly 7 pips in thin Asia hours. The 0.82053 session low has absorbed three probes overnight without giving way.

Support: 0.82053, 0.8200, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.8213, 0.82187, 0.82389

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the 0.82187 weekly open and EMA20 would invalidate the lower-high sequence
  • Failure to hold the 0.82053 session low exposes the 0.8200 round number and, on follow-through, the 0.81815 pre-fomc low
  • Tuesday's Fed speakers and Wednesday's 13:45 UTC US PMIs are the near-term catalysts capable of repricing this consolidation
  • SNB decision Thursday 07:30 GMT is the dominant CHF-side event risk for this structure

00:02 UTC

Pullback lower, lower highs since FOMC spike · RSI 39 · price 0.82088

Sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 0.82638, now compressing at the week low.

The dominant move of the window was the vertical FOMC bar on Wednesday's NY session, which lifted USDCHF from 0.81815 to the 0.82638 week high; everything since has been a grind lower, with profit-taking through Thursday and Friday and a third down day in Monday's sessions. Monday's high at 0.82389 capped the NY attempt before the pair broke to 0.82062, and the Asia session has since printed a marginally lower low at 0.82053 — price now sits around the 61.8% retracement of the post-FOMC impulse, below a flattening-to-lower EMA(20) near 0.82160 with RSI(14) parked near 39. Ranges have collapsed to a few pips a bar into the 0.8200 round number, which remains untested.

Support: 0.82053, 0.8200, 0.81815

Resistance: 0.8216, 0.82389, 0.82638

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.82160 ema20 would break the lower-high sequence that has run since the week high at 0.82638
  • Acceptance below the 0.82053 week low, and then the 0.8200 round number, would extend the retracement toward the 0.81815 prior range
  • Failure to reclaim Monday's high at 0.82389 keeps the corrective structure intact
  • US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT are the scheduled catalysts able to reset this read

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