21:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near cycle high · RSI 62 · price 0.82088
Chain of higher highs/higher lows since the late-April low; four-session pullback holding above 0.8205.
Multi-month uptrend intact: price has built higher highs and higher lows since the late-April low at 0.7795 and sits above both EMA20 and a rising EMA50, with the trend accelerating after last week's hawkish Fed hike took the pair to a 16-month high at 0.8264. The past four sessions have been corrective rather than impulsive — a shallow drift back to 0.8205 on softer US yields, with daily ranges narrowing to well under the 47-pip ATR. RSI at roughly 62 has cooled from its highs without breaking the uptrend, leaving the pair consolidating between 0.8205 and the 0.8264 cycle high.
Support: 0.8205, 0.8190, 0.8130
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
- SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Thu 07:30 UTC (0% expected) — intervention wording and the inflation path are the material event risk for this read
- US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT: a clear services miss would pressure a crowded hawkish USD repricing
- A daily close back below 0.8190, the prior high that capped the pair in mid-cycle, would break the higher-low chain
- A daily close above the 0.8264 cycle high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number