21:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 0.82123
Double top completed, lower highs under 0.8270.
The two-month advance from the 0.7950 aug low (Aug 20) peaked in a double top at 0.8382 (Oct 1) and 0.8395 (Oct 14). The rising uptrend line from that low gave way on Oct 2. Today's 0.8212 close is the first daily settle below the 0.8227 neckline, which also lines up with the 38.2% fib, after three sessions of rejection at the 0.8270 recent cap. Price is now below the EMA20 and marginally under the EMA50 near 0.8220, while the 50d sma at 0.8193 absorbed the intraday low; CHF haven demand on falling US yields and Fed-pause pricing has driven the two-week slide.
Support: 0.8193, 0.8112, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8270, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8193 50d sma extends the double top toward the 0.8112 sept pivot (61.8% fib zone)
- A reclaim of the 0.8227 neckline and a close above the 0.8270 recent cap would negate the breakdown read
- A break of the 0.8112 sept pivot puts the 0.7950 aug low back in view as the base of the whole move
- Fri US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, then next week's Fed decision, could materially shift this read