Double bottom breakout above 0.8243 neckline, holding above it.
Thursday's slide from Asia into the London open hit a one-month low at 0.8191, and Friday's Asian session retested that low and held, forming a double bottom. The 0.8243 neckline gave way on Friday as USD firmed on the flash PMI beat. Price sits above EMA(20) 0.8240 and EMA(50) 0.8234 after a late-Friday ema cross, RSI(14) is near 62, and the Sunday open gap down to 0.8229 has already been filled back toward the 0.8256 Friday high, with rising lows intact and the 0.8263 midweek cap and 0.8269 Tuesday high next above.
Support: 0.8243, 0.8219, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8263, 0.8269
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8243 neckline would undercut the double-bottom breakout
Loss of the 0.8219 swing low breaks the rising lows and the 61.8% level of the Friday rally fib
Close above the 0.8256 Friday high exposes the 0.8263 midweek cap and the 0.8269 Tuesday high
A break back under the 0.8192 double bottom would confirm a fresh lower low
Tue US ADP (12:15 UTC) and durables (12:30 UTC), then Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC, could materially shift this read
USDCHF set a double bottom at 0.8192 across Thursday's London session and Friday's Asian range. Price then cleared the lower-highs line from Wednesday and the 0.8243 neckline into the NY session, as US yields recovered and Friday's flash PMI beat lifted the dollar. The week opened with a 17-pip gap down to the 0.8234 weekly open. The gap filled within the first hour, with the low holding near the 38.2% fib of Friday's rally. Price is back above ema20 at 0.8239, RSI(14) is near 62, and the friday high at 0.8256 and the 0.8263 midweek high sit directly overhead.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8263
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8263 midweek high clears the Tuesday–Wednesday range top and extends the double-bottom breakout
Rejection at the 0.8256 friday high followed by a loss of ema20 and the 0.8234 weekly open exposes the 50% fib near 0.8224
Break back below the 0.8192 double bottom negates the reversal read
Tue Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence and Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 0.8192 with neckline break; Tuesday-Wednesday highs still overhead.
The week's slide bottomed at 0.8192 in Thursday's London session on haven CHF demand. Friday's Asia retest of the same level held, completing a double bottom. Firm US flash PMIs then drove a NY-session push through the 0.8245 neckline, and price closed the week above EMA(20) near 0.8237, just under the 78.6% retracement of the week decline from the 0.8270 week high, while RSI(14) eased to ~63 as late NY trade flattened below the 0.8256 Friday high.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8237, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8245 neckline would undercut the double-bottom breakout, with EMA(20) near 0.8237 the next test
Clearing the 0.8256 Friday high and the 0.8263 Tue-Wed cap exposes the 0.8270 week high
Loss of the rising support from Friday's lows reopens the 0.8192 double bottom
Tue US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read