21:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, rebound off one-month low · RSI 54 · price 0.82511
Lower highs from 0.8395; week-long base between 0.8192 and 0.8270.
The rejection from the 0.8395 swing high started a series of lower highs. Price then slid to a one-month low at 0.8192 as haven CHF demand built through the bond turmoil and weak US housing data. The dip through the 0.8222 range low proved a false break. Twin lows at 0.8192 formed a double bottom, and firmer US PMI and sentiment data on Friday lifted price back above both EMAs, though EMA20 still sits below EMA50. Price is now pressing the 0.8255-0.8270 range top, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8395-0.8192 drop, while ATR(14) near 25 pips shows a compressed regime versus the earlier sell-off.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 0.8270 range top clears the 38.2% retracement and opens the 0.8300 round number
- Rejection at 0.8270 followed by a break of the 0.8222 range low puts the 0.8192 month low back in play
- A break below 0.8192 invalidates the double bottom and resumes the lower-high sequence from the 0.8395 swing high
- An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the base is turning into a swing higher
- Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC; Tuesday's Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence data could also shift this read