Lower highs from 0.8395 broken; higher lows since 0.8192.
The lower-high sequence off the 0.8395 spike ended in a double btm at 0.8192 last week. The rebound has now cleared the 0.8270 swing high and the 38.2% fib of the 0.8395–0.8192 drop, with the next pivot cluster at the 50% fib (0.8293) and the 0.8300 round number. Friday's bounce came as US yields recovered from the bond-selloff haven bid, and USD short-covering ahead of Wednesday's Fed extended it. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from 40+ during the selloff, and price sits above both EMAs with EMA20 converging on EMA50.
Support: 0.8269, 0.8255, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8300, 0.8317
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 50% fib at 0.8293 and the 0.8300 round number opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8317
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib and the 0.8255 prior high returns price to the higher-low line
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: doubt on a December hike risks a retest of the 0.8192 double btm
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would confirm the swing turn on this timeframe
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence set pre-Fed tone
17:03 UTC
Recovering within broader downtrend · RSI 64 · price 0.82757
Double low at 0.8192, higher lows since, pressing 38.2% fib.
The slide from the 0.8395 window high found a double low at 0.8192 last week, and higher lows since have carried price through the 0.8243 neckline and the 0.8270 prior cap on the Friday-Monday USD recovery. Price now sits just above the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8395-0.8192 fib, with the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8316 swing high as the next levels overhead. ATR(14) has eased to about 24 pips from the mid-month spike, so the push is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8243, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8316, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8270 prior cap would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.8243 neckline and the higher-lows trendline would void the double-bottom read
H4 close above the 0.8300 round number brings the 0.8316 swing high and the 61.8% fib near 0.8317 into play
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: a walk-back on a December hike could drag price back toward the 0.8192 double low
Tue 27 Oct durable goods and consumer confidence as the last pre-Fed data checks
Lower highs from 0.8395; twin lows at 0.8192 and a bounce testing the lower-high trendline.
Since the 0.8395 spike, USDCHF has printed lower highs at 0.8270 and 0.8256. Defensive CHF demand during the bond selloff drove a lower low to the 0.8192 double low. Friday's firmer-yield bounce lifted price back to the 0.8256 recent high, and it now sits on the lower-high trendline near 0.8247, just above the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395-0.8192 drop. EMA20 still runs below EMA50, though the gap is narrowing, and ATR(14) at about 25 pips is compressed against the earlier selloff legs.
Support: 0.8229, 0.8218, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8270 lower high (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence and open the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8229 monday low puts the 0.8218 swing low and the 0.8192 double low back in focus
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, depending on December-hike guidance
Lower-high sequence intact since the 0.8395 spike, with each rebound capped below the 0.8270 range cap and Friday's lower high at 0.8256. CHF firmness against a yield-led softer USD carried price to a one-month low at 0.8192, where two tests have formed a tentative double bottom above the 0.8218 swing low. ATR(14) has compressed to about 24 pips, and price is sitting just over EMA20 but under EMA50 near 0.8252, with EMA20 still below EMA50.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8256 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 0.8270 range cap, then the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8218 swing low exposes the 0.8192 double bottom; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
FOMC decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC; hawkish December signalling vs dovish pushback could break the current compression
Tue US Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and Consumer Confidence as pre-Fed catalysts
Lower highs from 0.8395; double bottom at 0.8192 testing the lower-high line.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8395 spike, sliding more than 200 pips as CHF drew haven demand during the global bond selloff and weak US housing data. Two tests of 0.8192 held to form a double bottom, and Friday's US PMI beat lifted price back toward the 0.8256 swing high, which sits on the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits between a flattening EMA20 near 0.8233 and the EMA50 near 0.8258, with ATR(14) around 25 pips and no clear expansion yet.
Support: 0.8215, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8256 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence and open the 38.2% fib at 0.8270, then the 0.8300 round number
Slip back below the 0.8215 prior lows would undercut the double bottom rebound
Break below the 0.8192 double bottom would extend the lower-low structure
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Tuesday's US durable goods and consumer confidence set the tone beforehand