21:04 UTC
Two-month uptrend stalled, testing a double top · RSI 46 · price 0.82771
HH/HL chain from the Aug 20 low; double top at 0.8382/0.8395 with a false break of the 0.8227 neckline.
The rally from the Aug 20 low at 0.7950 ran to 0.8395 on Oct 14. That second peak sat just above the Oct 1 high at 0.8382 and formed a double top, with the neckline at 0.8227 lining up with the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct leg. A haven CHF bid drove a daily close below the neckline on Oct 22 and a monthly low at 0.8192, but the break failed from Oct 23 as US yields recovered and Iran strike fears eased. The three-session rebound has price back at the ema20 near 0.8270 and below the 0.8300 round number, while the rising trendline from August is still intact and RSI sits in neutral mid-40s territory.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8227, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- FOMC decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; December-hike guidance is the swing factor
- Daily close above the 0.8300 round number weakens the double top read and reopens 0.8395
- Daily close back below the 0.8227 neckline, then loss of the 0.8192 monthly low, would confirm the double top and expose the 50% fib near 0.8172
- Core PCE Thu Oct 29 12:30 UTC and Swiss CPI Tue Nov 3 are the follow-up risk events
- A break of the rising trendline from the August low would end the HH/HL sequence