Multi-month uptrend from the late-February ~156 base, price holding above EMA(50) on D1 throughout. The rally extended to 162.60 this week before today's outsized red bar slammed ~150 pips lower to 161.20 — a rejection consistent with suspected MoF intervention flagged in the JPY digest. The 161.00 pivot (prior resistance) now defines the near-term structure; the broad trend remains up but the spike high stands as fresh supply.
Support: 161.00, 160.50
Resistance: 162.60
What it said to watch
D1 close below 161.00 opens the 160.50 support and signals intervention traction
Reclaim of 162.60 would re-establish the high-and-higher sequence
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Higher highs / higher lows, bearish reversal bar into 162.60.
Multi-month uptrend intact, price holding above a rising EM(50) on D1 since the April base near 155.00 and grinding to 40-year highs at 162.84. The latest session printed a wide bearish reversal, spiking to 162.60 then slamming to 161.20 close on suspected MoF intervention after weeks of steady weekly gains. Structure remains up while 161.00 holds, but the single-day rejection halts the momentum for now.
Support: 161.00, 160.50
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
D1 close below 161.00 signals intervention traction toward the 160.50 support zone
Reclaim and close above 162.84 resumes the uptrend
Elevated MoF intervention risk after the drop from ~163 could cap and reverse rallies
US ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Chain of higher highs / higher lows since May bottom.
Multi-month uptrend, price holding above EMA(50) on D1 since the early-May bottom near 155.00, driven by the wide US-JP yield gap and JPY carry weakness. The market has ground up in weekly steps to a fresh 40-year high at 162.84, and is consolidating just below it over the last few sessions. RSI near 71 flags a genuinely extended trend into US NFP.
Support: 161.53
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC (~4.8h) is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Daily close above 162.84 opens the path toward the 165 line in sand
Intervention risk flagged above 162.50 — a forceful MoF tone shift would cap upside
Failure to hold 161.53 breaks the recent higher-low sequence
08:15 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 72 · price 162.559
Higher highs, higher lows.
Multi-month grind higher, price holding above a rising EMA(50) on D1 since the early-May base near 155.00. The last week saw a clean breakout above the 161.50 consolidation to fresh 40-year highs near 162.84, driven by the wide US-JP yield gap and carry flows. RSI is stretched into overbought as price sits just below the 162.84 pivot, with intervention risk flagged above 162.50.
Support: 161.50
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
Daily close above 162.84 opens the path toward the 165 psych line
Failure to hold 161.50 reverses the breakout read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC + thin-liquidity intervention risk could materially shift this read