A months-long grind higher from the April lows near 155.50 peaked in a cluster of failed pushes around 163.90, where MoF intervention capped price after the BoJ's on-hold hold. The last two D1 candles reversed violently — roughly 630 pips off the high to 157.65 — breaking the 160.00 psych level and the 158.54 spike-low in a single leg. RSI has collapsed toward the low-30s and price sits well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), flipping the swing picture from trend-up to deep corrective.
Support: 157.51, 155.50
Resistance: 158.54, 160.00
What it said to watch
Daily close back above 160.00 would neutralise the reversal read
Failure to hold 157.51 confirms extension toward the 155.50 april low
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 could reprice BoJ hike odds and shift this read
A three-month uptrend from the April 155.00 low peaked at a 163.94 double top before rare MoF intervention triggered a sharp two-session reversal back to 157.65. Price has broken the rising uptrend line and now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 160.00 round number flipping from support to resistance. The 163→158 whipsaw leaves the spike low at 157.51 as the immediate pivot.
Support: 157.51, 155.50
Resistance: 160.00, 162.00, 163.94
What it said to watch
Daily close below 157.51 spike low opens the path to the 155.50 april low
Reclaim of 160.00 round number needed to repair the downside break
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 and ISM Mon could materially shift the JPY/USD read
Intervention risk flagged on any grind back above 162.00