USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 3 August 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing after crash · RSI 40 · price 156.962
Sharp break lower, basing 155.45-157.1.
USDJPY collapsed from the 163.90 shelf toward 155.23 as the confirmed US-Japan joint intervention round-tripped the pair, leaving an intervention-driven downtrend well below EMA20 and EMA50. Price has since carved a tight base between the 155.45 Monday pivot and the 157.13 cap, with ATR(14) heavily elevated from the crash bars. Bounces have repeatedly stalled under 157.1, keeping the 158.00 200-dma the wider ceiling.
Support: 155.45, 155.23
Resistance: 157.13, 158.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.00 200-dma would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold 155.45 base confirms continuation to a lower low
Labor Cash Earnings (Tue 23:30 UTC) and fresh intervention headlines could reset this range
USD/JPY collapsed from ~164 after confirmed US-Japan joint yen-buying intervention, tearing through prior support in a 500-plus pip impulse bar. Price has since found a base around 155.20-155.45 and is now consolidating in a 155.4-157.1 band, with descending lower highs capping each bounce. ATR remains elevated by the crash even as the last several bars compress, and the 158 200-day SMA stands as the key overhead reference.
Support: 155.45, 155.225
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158 (200-dma) would challenge the JPY-strength read
Loss of 155.225 confirms a lower-low and extends the break
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC and fresh intervention headlines could reshape this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating above 155.45.
The historic joint US-Japan intervention collapsed USD/JPY from ~164 to a 155.225 low in staggered lurches, leaving a steep H4 downtrend with price now basing between 155.45 and the 158 200-day area. The last four bars have ticked higher off the low but every rebound has stalled well under the 158 cap that Rabobank/MUFG flag as resistance. ATR remains hugely elevated from the intervention volatility — the range read stays fragile while price coils above the 155.45 pivot.
Support: 155.45, 155.225
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.00 200-dma would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 155.45 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 155.23
Renewed MoF/US intervention headlines could reignite the down-leg
ADP Wed and NFP Friday could materially shift this read
Vertical breakdown, now consolidating above the swing low.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~163.90 to 155.22 in staggered lurches on the confirmed joint US-Japan FX intervention, obliterating the prior multi-week 162-164 range. Price has since based between 155.45 and 157, with the 158.00 200-day SMA now the first overhead cap. ATR(14) is heavily expanded near 166 pips, reflecting the intervention-driven volatility rather than organic trend.
Support: 155.45, 155.22
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.00 200-dma would signal dip-buyers fading the intervention spike
Failure to hold 155.45 pivot confirms a fresh lower-low
Renewed MoF/Treasury intervention headlines could reignite the downside leg
ADP Wed and NFP Fri could materially shift this read
USD/JPY collapsed from ~164 to the mid-155s over the past week as confirmed coordinated US-Japan intervention and a hawkish BoJ forced aggressive short-covering. Price has since carved a small base above the 155.45 May-6 low, with ATR(14) hugely expanded after the intervention candles. The last three bars are consolidating below the 157.88 recovery high, well beneath both EMAs.
Support: 155.45, 155.225
Resistance: 157.88, 159.51
What it said to watch
Intervention headlines remain the dominant wildcard for this pair
Close below 155.45 opens the path toward the recent 155.23 swing low
Reclaim of 157.88 exposes the 159.51 squeeze zone as the rate-gap reasserts
ISM Manufacturing today 14:00 UTC could firm USD and shift the read
Uptrend broken; lower highs and lower lows since intervention.
The multi-week grind up to a double top near 163.9 reversed violently on confirmed US-Japan joint intervention, dropping USD/JPY roughly 800 pips into the mid-155s before a shallow base near 156. Price now prints lower highs and lower lows with ATR(14) blown out to ~160 pips, confirming an expansion regime. Buyers have stepped in around 155.2 but every bounce has capped below the falling 158-161 zone.
Support: 155.23
What it said to watch
H4 close below 155.23 confirms lower-low continuation
Reclaim of the 159-161 squeeze zone would signal short-covering relief
Fresh MoF/Treasury intervention headlines remain the dominant wildcard
US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could inject USD volatility
Vertical breakdown from 163.90, now basing near lows.
USDJPY collapsed from the 163.90 range in a single vertical impulse after confirmed US-Japan joint FX intervention, printing a 155.23 low and a weekend gap-down. Price is now basing between 155.45 and 157.65 with ATR(14) near 158 pips, an extreme volatility regime versus the prior grind. Both EMAs sit well above spot as the market digests the flush.
Support: 155.45, 155.23
Resistance: 157.65
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI today 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 155.45 pivot confirms a fresh lower-low
H4 close back above 157.65 prior low would ease downside pressure
Fresh intervention headlines could accelerate the move lower
USDJPY spent three weeks coiling in a 162.30-163.95 range before confirmed coordinated US-Japan FX intervention smashed the pair through the floor, an 800-pip cascade to a 155.23 low. Structure has flipped decisively lower with successive lower highs post-crash and ATR(14) blown out to ~174 pips, well into an expansion regime. Price is holding a modest bounce off the low but sits far below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI depressed near 33.
Support: 155.23, 155.00
Resistance: 157.65
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 157.65 prior pivot would ease immediate downside pressure
Failure to hold 155.23 swing low opens the path toward 155.00 psych
NFP Friday and any repeat intervention headline could materially shift this read
Suspected MoF intervention collapsed USD/JPY from the 163.90 top to 158 in a single H4 candle, and price has since sliced clean through the 158.00 floor to print a fresh low at 155.225. Structure is firmly lower-lows with price trading far beneath both EMAs; ATR(14) has exploded, marking a volatility-expansion regime rather than the prior grind. The small 156.12→156.52 rebound off the low is minor against the scale of the decline.
Support: 155.225
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 158.00 would challenge the downside break
A grind back above ~162 re-elevates fresh MoF intervention risk
US ISM Manufacturing PMI today 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
The multi-week grind above 162 collapsed after Thursday's record MoF yen defence, dropping USD/JPY from 163.9 into the 155s. Price has now closed below the 158.00 intervention floor, turning it into overhead resistance, with ATR(14) expanding sharply as the down-leg accelerates. A modest bounce off the 155.23 swing low leaves the pair pinned well under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 155.23, 155.00
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
H4 close back above 158.00 would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of 155.23 swing low opens the path toward the 155.00 psych level
Renewed intervention headlines can trigger sharp two-way spikes
Coordinated Japan-Korea intervention Thursday slammed USD/JPY roughly five figures from 163 to 158, decisively breaking the multi-week 162.00–163.95 range. Price has since failed to reclaim the 158.00 intervention low and is grinding into fresh lows near 157.00, with post-intervention bounces capped by a series of lower highs around 160.50–160.88. ATR(14) has expanded sharply, consistent with trend extension rather than consolidation.
Support: 157.00
Resistance: 158.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
A close back above 158.00 would signal stabilisation and a return toward the former range
Failure to hold 157.00 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC + BoJ minutes could add hawkish JPY repricing
162.00 intervention threshold well overhead — moves toward it invite fresh MoF risk
Coordinated intervention slammed USD/JPY roughly five figures from 163 to 158 last week, resetting the multi-week structure to a clean downtrend. Price has since broken the 158.54 whipsaw floor to print a fresh low at 156.997, trading well below EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 140 pips reflects extreme volatility expansion off the intervention shock.
Support: 156.997
Resistance: 158.54, 162.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 158.54 would negate the lower-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC could extend yen strength
A push back toward 162.00 flagged as fresh MoF intervention threshold