22:03 UTC
Range after September V-recovery, compressing · RSI 48 · price 157.744
Six-week range 156.08–159.03 with lower highs and higher lows.
USDJPY has been boxed between the 156.08 october low and the 159.03 range top since late September, after the early-September flush to 152.89 was fully retraced. Daily lower highs (159.03, 158.95, 158.77) and higher lows (156.08, 156.96) are narrowing the range, with price sitting just under EMA(20) and above a rising EMA(50) near 157.4, around the 23.6% retrace of the September swing. This week's post-midterm USD selloff and hawkish BoJ minutes pulled price back from the 158.77 week high toward the 157.39 weekly low, while intervention talk keeps the topside capped near 159.
Support: 157.39, 156.08, 152.89
Resistance: 158.77, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 157.39 weekly low exposes the 156.08 october low and the 38.2% retrace near 156.68
- Loss of 156.08 would end the range and reopen the 152.89 window low
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 160.39 window high next and MoF intervention risk near 159
- Japan wages tonight 23:30 GMT, US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC and Ueda Fri 16:00 GMT could materially shift this read