USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 6 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 44 · price 162.04
Higher-lows off Monday's reopen, pulling back below week high.
USDJPY rallied off Monday's post-weekend reopen near 161.27 to a week high at 162.42, extending the broad JPY carry-driven slide back toward 40-year highs. Price has since faded to a session low around 162.02, slipping under EMA(20) as RSI cooled from the highs — a stall rather than a reversal so far. The 162.84 40-year high remains the upside trip-wire and intervention risk, while the pair holds well above the 160.48 Friday low.
Support: 162.02, 161.27, 160.48
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 opens the path to the 162.84 40yr high
Failure to hold 161.27 negates this week's higher-lows
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift the read into the next session
Higher highs into Monday peak, now easing off week high.
USDJPY climbed off Monday's open near 161.27 through the NY session to a week high at 162.43, with carry flows keeping JPY pinned near 40-year lows. Price has since eased back to 162.04, slipping under EMA20 but holding well above EMA50 and the 162.02 recent low. The pullback has retraced roughly a third of the Monday impulse; supply is capping around 162.43.
Support: 162.02, 161.27
Resistance: 162.425, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close below 162.02 recent low deepens the pullback toward 161.27 weekly open
A push into 162.84 40-yr high revives MoF intervention risk
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.4%) could shift this read
Higher lows off Monday's low, pulling back to EMA20.
USDJPY dropped hard through Thursday's NFP session to the 160.40-160.85 zone before Monday's session drove a clean recovery back above 162, tagging 162.43 before stalling. Price has since eased back below EMA20 to 162.06, sitting near the 38.2% retracement of the Monday impulse; the 162.00 psych level is the near-term pivot. Carry-driven JPY weakness keeps the broader tilt higher, with the 40-year high at 162.84 the standout resistance and intervention trip-wire.
Support: 162.00, 161.77
Resistance: 162.43, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close below 162.00 psych opens the 161.77 swing low
Break above 162.43 day high exposes the 162.84 40-yr high and intervention risk
Labor Cash Earnings tonight (23:30 UTC) and FOMC minutes Wed could reset this read
USDJPY rallied off Monday's 161.27 open into the NY session, tagging a 162.43 week high before easing back to 162.06 as the carry-driven grind toward 40-year highs paused. Price is now testing EMA(20) from below with RSI(14) cooling off toward the mid-40s, but the week's higher-low sequence off 161.27 remains intact and EMA(50) still sits underneath. The broad USD/JPY structure holds near 162 with the 162.84 40-year high in sight.
Support: 162.00, 161.80, 161.27
Resistance: 162.43, 162.84
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Test of 162.84 40-year high raises MoF intervention risk
H1 close below 161.80 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Reclaim of 162.43 week high reopens path to 162.84
Week impulse stalled below 40-yr high, drifting off week high.
Since the week reopened near 161.27, USD/JPY rallied through the NY session to a week high at 162.42, stalling just shy of the 40-year high at 162.84 on carry and broad USD strength. The subsequent pullback has drifted back to 162.08, slipping under EMA20 with RSI easing toward the mid-40s. The 162.42 zone capped repeated attempts and now stands as the immediate resistance.
Support: 162.02, 161.85, 161.27
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 opens the path to the 162.84 40-yr high and intervention risk
Failure to hold 162.02 session low exposes the 161.85 fib area
Labor Cash Earnings today 23:30 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed could shift this read
Recovery off week low, higher lows into resistance.
USD/JPY has ground steadily higher since the Thursday NFP-driven flush to 160.49, clawing back above 162.00 on carry and safe-haven demand as intervention risk passed. The advance stalled at the 162.42 session high with RSI easing back to neutral and price slipping just under EMA20 on the latest pullback. The 40-year high at 162.84 remains the dominant overhead reference and the flagged intervention trigger.
Support: 161.27, 160.49
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 opens the path to the 162.84 40yr high
Loss of the 161.27 weekly open breaks the higher-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC and FOMC minutes Wed could shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's open, pullback below EMA20.
USD/JPY recovered off Monday's 161.27 weekly open through the week, pressing toward this-week high at 162.42 before stalling into the NY session, with carry and broad USD strength underpinning the bid. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) as RSI(14) eased off, now testing the 162.00 psych level. The 40-yr high at 162.84 remains the capping resistance overhead.
Support: 162.00, 161.27
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close below 162.00 psych opens the path back to the 161.27 weekly open
Reclaim of 162.42 week high puts the 40-yr high at 162.84 in play
Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC) and FOMC minutes Wed could materially shift the USD/JPY read
Recovery off Friday's 160.49 week low extended into the new week's open, tagging 162.42 before this-hour pullback to 162.04 slipped price back under EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range after the push, with rejection capping the week high; broad USD strength and carry flows drove the grind toward the 162.84 40-year high. EMA(50) still supports below, keeping the recovery structure intact.
Support: 161.80, 160.49
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 week high opens the path to the 162.84 40yr high / intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.80 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings today 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
Higher lows off Friday low, stalling near range top.
Recovery off Friday's 160.49 low has run since Sunday's open, tagging 162.42 in the NY session before easing back below EMA(20) into 162.07. RSI(14) has rolled off the low-60s as the push toward the 40-yr high at 162.84 stalled, dollar bid holding firm despite last week's soft NFP. The pullback is shallow, keeping the week's higher-low sequence intact.
Support: 161.30, 160.49
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 162.42 recent high opens the 40-yr high at 162.84
Loss of the 161.30 gap area would question the recovery off Friday's low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the key catalyst that could reshape this read
Higher lows off Friday's low, stalling below week high.
USDJPY has climbed back above 162.00 after Friday's dip to 160.49, pressing a week high of 162.42 before stalling into the NY session. Carry flows kept the pair bid despite the soft NFP miss, with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI cycling mid-range. The last few bars have leaked back to 162.17, a shallow pullback within the recovery leg.
Support: 161.76, 160.49
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 161.76 base would negate the recovery leg
162.42 week high is capping — break opens the path toward the 162.84 40yr high
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention risk flagged near 162.80+
USD/JPY rebased back above 162.00 into this week's open, recovering the prior selloff to 160.48 as carry demand reasserted and JPY stayed on the back foot. Price is grinding just below the 162.42 week high, which has capped two attempts, with RSI(14) mid-range and pullbacks so far holding EMA(20). The 162.84 40-year high sits overhead as the next area to watch.
Support: 161.76
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 week high opens the path to 162.84
Failure to hold 161.76 threatens the higher-low sequence
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention headlines near 162.80+ a two-way tail risk
USD/JPY reclaimed the 162 handle through Monday's session as carry demand and haven USD flows reasserted after last week's dip to 160.49. Price has stalled just under the 162.425 week high, holding above the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-50s. The 40-year high near 162.84 remains the overhead reference with intervention risk flagged into that zone.
Support: 162.15, 161.80
Resistance: 162.425, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.425 opens the path toward the 162.84 40yr high
Failure to hold the 162.15 ema20 exposes the 161.80 session base
Labor Cash Earnings today 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC a material risk to this read
Higher highs off reopen, stalling below week high.
USD/JPY recovered steadily since the post-holiday reopen, climbing from 161.27 to a 162.42 week high as carry demand and haven USD flows reasserted after Thursday's NFP-driven dip to 160.48. Price is now consolidating just under that high with RSI cooling off from the recovery push, holding above EMA(20). The 162.42–162.84 zone caps the advance near the 40-year high.
Support: 162.03
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 opens the 162.84 40-yr high
Failure to hold 162.03 signals the recovery leg stalling
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and Wed's FOMC minutes could reshape this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 162.292
Higher highs and higher lows since week open, stalling below week high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily since this week's open near 161.27, retracing the prior week's spike drop and grinding back toward the 40-year high, helped by renewed carry flows and a resilient USD after the in-line ISM Services print. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s on pullbacks, but the last several NY-hour bars have flattened into the 162.30–162.42 zone. Resistance at the week high (162.42) has capped the latest push.
Support: 162.03, 161.27
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 162.42 opens the path toward the 162.84 40-year high
Loss of EMA20 near 162.03 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC) and Wed FOMC Minutes are the week's key catalysts and could shift this read
MoF/BoJ intervention chatter escalates as price nears the 40-year high
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 62 · price 162.292
Higher highs and higher lows off the 160.48 base.
USD/JPY has clawed back from the ~160.48 spike low all week, riding carry demand and a safe-haven USD bid to retake 162 and print a 162.42 week high. Price is holding above EMA(20) with RSI cycling in the low-60s, but the last few bars have stalled just under that week high, consolidating between 162.28 and 162.42. The 162.84 40-year high sits as the next overhead marker.
Support: 161.80
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
Close above 162.42 opens the path toward the 162.84 40-year high
Failure to hold 161.80 breaks the week's higher-low structure
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reshape this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding back to highs · RSI 61 · price 162.348
Higher lows since Friday's dip, testing week's top.
USD/JPY has clawed back the entirety of Friday's intervention-driven dip to 160.48, printing a steady sequence of higher lows into the NY session as carry demand and a resilient Dollar reasserted. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the low 60s; the 162.42 day high caps the immediate topside just under the 162.84 40-year high. Momentum is intact but stalling into that overhead zone.
Support: 162.15, 161.80, 160.48
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.42 opens the path to the 162.84 40-year high — area to watch for rejection or break
Intervention risk rises near 162.84/165; a confirmed MoF move could unwind the recovery sharply
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC and Wed FOMC minutes are the week's catalysts
Loss of 162.15 breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens 161.80
The recovery off Friday's ~160.48 low has been steady since Monday's session open, with carry flows reasserting and USD holding firm on the Hormuz safe-haven bid. Price is grinding back toward the 40-year high, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. Resistance at 162.43 has capped this week's push, with the 162.84 40-year high the next reference above.
Support: 162.00, 161.80
Resistance: 162.43, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.43 opens the path to the 162.84 40-year high
Failure to hold 162.00 psych exposes the 161.80 breakout shelf
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and MoF/BoJ intervention chatter near 165 could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 40-yr high · RSI 64 · price 162.338
Higher highs and higher lows since reopen.
USDJPY has climbed steadily since Monday's reopen near 161.27, carry-driven JPY weakness lifting price back toward the 162.84 40-year high. Holding above EMA(20) with each pullback finding support, RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. The 162.42 session high is capping the latest push just under the multi-decade peak.
Support: 162.15, 161.03
Resistance: 162.42, 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.84 opens the path toward 163.00 psych
Failure to hold 162.15 exposes the 161.03 consolidation base
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's flush, deep retrace of week's down leg.
USDJPY has ground back from Friday's ~160.48 flush — the double blow of a soft 57K NFP and suspected MoF intervention — and now trades near 162.34, an 78.6% retrace of the week's down leg from 162.84. Price has held above EMA20 through the recovery with RSI(14) mid-60s, and the 40-year high at 162.84 remains the near-term cap and intervention trip-wire. Carry demand keeps the yen soft, but the crowded short leaves the pair sensitive to headlines.
Support: 161.27, 160.48
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 54) could jolt USD and this read
H1 close above 162.84 clears the 40-year high; intervention risk elevated there
Failure to hold 161.27 week open reopens the 160.48 Friday low
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC a JPY-side risk
13:02 UTC
Recovering, back toward highs · RSI 64 · price 162.411
Sharp drop then V-recovery, retesting pre-drop range.
USDJPY collapsed to 160.48 on Thursday's soft NFP and suspected MoF intervention, then carved a rounded base near 161.0 and has recovered steadily since Friday's session, now pressing 162.41. Price holds above both EMAs with RSI cycling in the low-60s, and the pair is retesting the pre-drop range just below the 162.84 40-year high. Two attempts have stalled around 162.30-162.42 as that intervention-risk zone approaches.
Support: 162.15, 161.36, 160.60
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.84 opens continuation but sits in the MoF intervention zone
Failure to hold 162.15 exposes the 161.36 base
ISM Services today 14:00 UTC and Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Any suspected intervention risks a fast reversal back through 160.60
USDJPY has climbed for a second straight day, retracing most of the Thursday NFP-miss slide that punched down to 160.60 amid suspected MoF intervention. Price now presses back toward the 162.43 session high with RSI(14) around 66, holding well above EMA20 as each pullback finds support. The 40-yr high at 162.84 caps the advance and remains the primary intervention-risk zone.
Support: 161.95, 161.76, 160.60
Resistance: 162.43, 162.84
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg materially
A close above 162.84 40-yr high opens fresh ground but raises MoF intervention risk
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC — a beat would pressure the pair back toward the 161.76 ema
Failure to hold 161.95 ema20 would break the recovery sequence of higher lows
USD/JPY has built on Friday's rebound for a second session, climbing off Thursday's 160.60 low as the dollar firmed near DXY 101.00 and the wide rate gap kept the yen soft. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s, and the 162.41 session high is the last barrier before the 162.84 40-year high. Pullbacks this week have found demand at successively higher lows.
Support: 161.85, 160.60
Resistance: 162.41, 162.84
What it said to watch
162.84 40-year high is the primary intervention trigger zone — area to watch for rejection
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 161.85 (ema20) would break the higher-low sequence
USDJPY has recovered a full leg since the week reopened near 161.29, grinding back toward last week's 40-year high at 162.84 as the wide US-Japan rate gap kept the yen soft. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 63, and each pullback into the rising trend has found demand, most recently at the 162.15 intraday low. The day high at 162.41 is the immediate cap ahead of the 162.84 40yr high.
Support: 162.15, 161.29
Resistance: 162.41, 162.84
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 162.41 opens the path back to the 162.84 40yr high
MoF intervention risk elevated near 162.84 — a sharp squeeze back through 161.29 would break the recovery structure
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
Loss of the 162.15 intraday low signals the higher-low sequence is faltering
Since Monday's reopen near 161.27, USDJPY has ground higher through the NY session on a series of higher lows, retracing almost the entire Thursday drop from the 40-year high. That plunge to the 160.50 two-week low followed the NFP shock and suspected MoF action; price now sits above EMA20 and EMA50 and is pressing back toward the 162.45 resistance that capped the week. RSI(14) around 66 reflects sustained momentum without reaching an extreme.
Support: 161.27, 160.50
Resistance: 162.45, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 opens the path to the 162.84 40-year high, where intervention risk rises
Loss of 161.27 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has recovered a second straight session off Thursday's NFP-driven flush to 160.48, grinding back up through Monday's reopening to retest the 162.45 resistance. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-60s as carry demand overwhelms intervention jitters; the 40-year high at 162.84 sits just overhead. The week's dominant move remains the sharp drop from 162.84, and the pair is now deep into that retracement.
Support: 161.16
Resistance: 162.45, 162.84
What it said to watch
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC — a hot print could pressure the pair back toward 161.00
ISM Services today 14:00 UTC is a two-way risk for this read
Sustained trade above 162.84 opens the 40-year high with rising MoF intervention risk
H1 close below 161.16 breaks the higher-low structure
USD/JPY has recovered the entire NFP-and-intervention selloff, climbing from the 160.48 week low back toward 162.32 as carry-driven yen weakness reasserted through the NY session. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 67, and the pair is now pressing the 162.45 area that capped the week's earlier attempts. The advance has retraced most of the mid-week impulse lower into thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 161.80
Resistance: 162.45, 162.60, 162.83
What it said to watch
Approach to 162.45 and the 162.60/162.83 highs lifts MoF intervention risk
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC could shift the BoJ wage-cycle read
H1 close back below 161.80 negates the recovery structure
USDJPY has clawed back nearly all of the mid-week slide, grinding from Monday's 161.27 low back toward 162.32 as carry-driven yen selling reasserted into thin liquidity. Price sits above the H1 EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the upper half, and the 162.45 week resistance now caps the recovery just overhead. The rally retraced almost the entire 162.83-to-160.48 down move seen earlier in the week.
Support: 162.15, 161.27, 160.48
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 opens the path back to the 162.83 week high, into rising intervention risk
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC could shift the read on any BoJ wage-cycle beat
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC are near-term USD risks
Failure to hold 162.15 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
09:02 UTC
Recovering, uptrend on the day · RSI 65 · price 162.242
Rebound off week low, higher highs into Monday.
USD/JPY has retraced most of Thursday's NFP-driven collapse to the 160.48 week low, rallying off Monday's 161.27 weekly open back through the 162 handle. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pushing into the low-60s, and the session high at 162.31 is the immediate cap ahead of the 162.45 prior high. The mid-week 162.60 zone stalled by intervention chatter remains the ceiling on this leg.
Support: 161.27, 160.85, 160.48
Resistance: 162.31, 162.45, 162.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 exposes the 162.60 week high, an area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the 161.27 weekly open reopens the 160.85 swing low
Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk elevated as price nears the 162.60 area
Higher lows since Friday's base, retracing the mid-week drop.
USDJPY has recovered almost the entire mid-week flush, trading back to 162.24 after Thursday's soft-NFP drop to the 160.48 weekly low. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with today's rally stalling into the 162.45 prior high, and RSI near 66 reflects the recovery momentum. The rounded bottom off the 160.60 base has driven a clean sequence of higher lows since Friday.
Support: 162.00, 160.60
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 re-tests the 162.83 weekly high
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
Rebound off 161 base retracing the intervention drop.
USDJPY spiked to a 1986 high near 162.83 mid-week before a double reversal — the soft US NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention drove it to 160.48. Price then based around 161 and the last ten bars have rallied back to 162.25, retracing roughly three-quarters of that drop with RSI(14) pushing into overbought. The 162.45 area — the flagged intervention-trigger zone — is now the immediate cap into the NY session.
Support: 161.00, 160.60
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 162.45 re-enters the intervention zone into the 162.83 high
H1 close back below 161.00 reopens the 160.60 low
Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
08:02 UTC
Recovering after intervention-driven drop · RSI 65 · price 162.188
Higher lows off week low, capped below multi-decade highs.
USD/JPY has retraced most of last week's intervention-driven slide from the 162.79 week high to the 160.48 week low, grinding higher through Monday's session with a string of higher lows and price back above EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits near 64 as the recovery stalled at the 162.31 session high, just under the 162.45 intervention zone that capped price into the 1986 highs. The soft US NFP print and stealth-intervention speculation defined the week's two-way tone; the pair is now rebuilding into that same resistance shelf.
Support: 161.36, 160.85, 160.48
Resistance: 162.31, 162.45, 162.79
What it said to watch
Approach to the 162.45 intervene zone re-enters the intervention ambush window
H1 acceptance back below the 161.36 prior range reopens the swing low near 160.85
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift the BoJ read and this recovery
Higher lows since Thursday's low, retracing NFP drop.
USD/JPY has clawed back nearly all of Thursday's NFP-shock drop (57K vs 110K) and suspected MoF intervention that dumped the pair from a 40-yr high near 162.83 to 160.48. Since Friday's session the pair has printed steady higher-lows into the NY-transition rally, retracing ~77% of that drop with RSI(14) elevated near 70. The 161.90–162.45 supply band that capped rebounds is now overhead — an area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 161.90, 161.27
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 opens the path back to the 162.83 week high
Failure to hold 161.90 puts the 161.27 swing low back in focus
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and ISM Services today could shift the read
Intervention headline risk elevated on any push back toward 162+
07:02 UTC
Rebound off week low, momentum building · RSI 69 · price 162.293
Higher lows since Sunday base, retesting week's supply.
Thursday's NFP shock (57K vs 110K) plus suspected MoF intervention snapped the rally from the 162.83 40-year high down to a two-week low near 160.48. Price has since carved a rounded base around 161 and today's session has rallied sharply back through EMA20 and EMA50 toward the 162.45 range cap, with RSI(14) pushing into the high 60s. The recovery has held a clean series of higher lows since the weekly reopen.
Support: 161.50
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 range cap opens the path back toward 162.83
Rejection at 162.45 keeps this week's supply zone intact and points back to 161.50
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could reshape this read
Intervention headline risk elevated on any revisit of the 162+ area
06:02 UTC
Recovery, momentum firm · RSI 71 · price 162.049
Higher highs, higher lows since Thursday's low.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily off the 160.60 week-low carved after Thursday's 57K NFP shock, printing a clean sequence of higher lows through the Asia and early London sessions and rounding out a base around 161.00. Price now trades at 162.05, above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) pushed into the low-70s as the rebound accelerated. The 162.45 zone above is the notable cap — the area flagged as reload resistance and near the intervention line-in-sand — while 161.00 remains the pivot the recovery is built on.
Support: 161.00, 160.60
Resistance: 162.45
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and ongoing MoF intervention risk are two-way catalysts
A close above 162.45 opens the path back toward the week high
Failure to hold 161.00 pivot undoes the higher-low sequence
06:02 UTC
Rebound off lows, momentum up · RSI 66 · price 162.049
Higher lows since Thursday's low, retracing mid-week drop.
USD/JPY has rebounded steadily off Thursday's 40-year-low area near 160.60 after the weak US NFP print knocked the pair from the mid-week highs. Since Monday's open the pair carved higher lows off the 161.00 pivot and pushed back to 162.05, sitting above both EMAs with RSI(14) around 66. The 162.45 reload cap is the next resistance into the mid-week range top.
Support: 161.00, 160.60
Resistance: 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 opens the path back toward the 162.83 40-year high
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC could shift BoJ-hike bets and this read
ISM Services PMI today 14:00 UTC (f/c 54.2) plus Waller at 15:00 UTC are USD-side risks
Failure to hold 161.00 pivot re-exposes the 160.60 low
05:02 UTC
Recovery off last week's low, momentum building · RSI 65 · price 161.927
Sharp down-leg then higher-lows base.
USD/JPY plunged from the 162.80 area to a 160.48 swing low late last week on the soft US NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, and has since clawed back into the Monday session near 161.90 along a rising sequence of higher-lows. Price has reclaimed EMA20 and RSI(14) is pushing into the mid-60s, with the rebound now stalling into the 61.8% retrace of that drop. The 162.00 round-number and 162.45 resistance zone caps further upside.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 162.00, 162.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 would extend the recovery beyond the retracement zone
Failure to hold 161.00 pivot reopens the 160.60 intervention level
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Waller could reshape the USD read
05:02 UTC
Corrective bounce after selloff · RSI 66 · price 161.927
Higher lows off 160.50 base.
USD/JPY has clawed back from the 160.50 base carved after Thursday's soft NFP print and suspected MoF intervention, with the Monday session driving a steady grind higher back above EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price is now stalling near 161.95, right at the 61.8% retracement of the 162.83–160.48 decline, with RSI(14) pushed to the mid-60s. The 162.00 round number caps the recovery for now, while higher lows have held since the base formed.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 162.00, 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.45 opens the path back toward the 162.83 week high
Failure to hold 161.00 re-exposes the 160.60 area
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend this week, recovering off lows · RSI 63 · price 161.834
Rounded base after weekly selloff, higher lows into NY.
USD/JPY sold off from the 40-yr high near 162.83 to a 160.48 week low on Thursday's soft NFP print and suspected MoF intervention. Price has since carved a rounded base and recovered through the NY session into 161.83, back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 63. The 161.90 session high is capping the bounce, with 162.45 marking the broader rebound cap.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.90, 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.90 opens the path toward the 162.45 rebound cap
Failure to hold the 161.00 round level puts the 160.60 intervention zone back in focus
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The week's dominant move was the slide from the 40-year high near 162.83 down to 160.48 on Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K), which cut Fed hike bets and firmed the yen alongside intervention chatter. Through Monday's Asia session price has recovered off 161.27, reclaiming EMA20 with RSI(14) pushing into the low-60s, and is now testing session-high supply around 161.86. The bounce is corrective against the broader down-leg; 160.60 remains the pivotal week floor.
Support: 161.27, 160.60
Resistance: 161.86, 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 opens the path to 160.00
Reclaim of 162.45 needed to challenge the 40yr high near 162.83
ISM Services PMI today 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY slid from the 162.84 40-yr high to 160.48 late last week as the soft June NFP (57K vs 110K) trimmed Fed-hike pricing and suspected MoF intervention squeezed the pair. Price then based in a 160.75-161.50 consolidation and pushed through the top into Monday's session, trading 161.77 with RSI(14) back near 61 and price holding above EMA20/EMA50. The 161.85 session high has capped the bounce so far; 162.45 remains the heavier ceiling above.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.85, 162.45, 162.84
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.85 opens the path toward 162.45
Failure to hold 161.00 re-exposes the 160.60 pivot and 160.48 swing low
MoF intervention headlines into thin liquidity could sharply reverse this bounce
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 54.2) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend off highs, bouncing · RSI 62 · price 161.77
Sharp decline then base, Monday recovery.
USD/JPY slid from midweek 40-year highs near 162.83 after the soft June NFP miss, with a spike low to 160.48 that quickly reversed amid stealth-intervention talk. Since the weekend gap price has recovered through the NY session to 161.77, reclaiming EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI back near 62. Session high at 161.85 caps the bounce; the 161.00 psych level held as base on the way up.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.85, 162.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 pivot exposes the 160.00 area
Acceptance above 161.85 session high needed to extend the recovery toward 162.45
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC and intervention headlines could shift this read
USD/JPY sold off from the 40-year high near 162.84 after Thursday's soft US NFP print and intervention fear, bottoming twice around 160.50 to form a double-bottom base. Price has since reclaimed the 161.00 pivot and pushed to 161.80 into thin holiday trade, with RSI(14) recovering back above midline. Resistance at 161.90 caps the current leg, with 162.45 the next hurdle above.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.90, 162.45, 162.84
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 opens the path toward 160.00
Break above 161.90 extends the recovery toward 162.45
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention headlines remain a two-way swing risk in thin liquidity
USDJPY topped near the 162.84 week high before Thursday's 57K NFP miss and stealth-intervention chatter drove a sharp slide to the 160.48 week low. Price has since based around the 161.02 swing low and is now retracing back above EMA20/EMA50 into the NY session, roughly the 50-61.8% area of the weekly drop. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold toward the mid-50s as higher-lows build.
Support: 161.02, 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.90, 162.45, 162.84
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI today 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 160.60 pivot opens the path toward 160.00
Reclaim of 161.90 prior high exposes 162.45 resistance
Loss of 161.02 swing low reasserts the weekly downtrend
01:02 UTC
Downtrend this week, consolidating · RSI 58 · price 161.551
Recovered off swing low, ranging near 161.
USD/JPY collapsed from the 162.83 four-decade high mid-week after the soft US June NFP print (57K vs 110K) and suspected MoF intervention, dumping ~230 pips into a 160.48 low. Price has since carved a base above 161.00 and is grinding back to 161.55 on thin US-holiday liquidity, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling back near 58. The 161.90–162.45 zone caps the recovery while 160.60 marks the intervention-scare floor.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.479
Resistance: 161.90, 162.45, 162.838
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 reopens the path toward 160.00
reclaim of 162.45 signals the drop is being retraced
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC) could shift this read
intervention headlines remain the dominant near-term wildcard
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing off lows · RSI 60 · price 161.551
Based around 161.00, higher lows forming after Thursday flush.
Since Thursday's NFP shock (57K vs 110K) USD/JPY collapsed from the ~162.8 four-decade high toward 160.50, aided by suspected MoF intervention. Price has since based around the 161.00 pivot and is grinding higher through thin holiday liquidity, now testing 161.60 with RSI(14) recovered to ~60. Higher lows since the flush keep the recovery intact while the wider BoJ-Fed gap caps upside.
Support: 161.00, 160.60, 160.00
Resistance: 161.60, 161.90, 162.45
What it said to watch
Close above 161.90 reopens the path to 162.45 and the 40-yr high zone
Close below 160.60 confirms a lower-low and opens 160.00
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift this read; intervention headlines are the near-term wildcard
USDJPY fell from the 162.80 four-decade high to a 160.48 base after Thursday's US NFP shock (57K vs 110K) and suspected MoF intervention, then spent the back end of the week consolidating in a 160.60–161.50 band through thin US-holiday liquidity. Price is holding above EMA(20) but capped under EMA(50) around 161.60, with each dip since the low printing a slightly higher trough. RSI(14) has recovered to the low-50s off oversold, diverging from the price low.
Support: 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.90, 162.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 pivot opens the path toward 160.00
Reclaim of 161.90 swing high needed to challenge 162.45 resistance
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC) could shift this read
USDJPY collapsed from a 40-year high near 162.83 after Thursday's soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) reset hawkish-Fed bets, with suspected MoF intervention deepening the slide into thin US-holiday liquidity toward 160.48. Price has since consolidated in a 160.60–161.50 band and is nudging back above EMA(20)/EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s. The 160.60 pivot has held as a base, while 161.64 caps the rebound.
Support: 160.60, 160.48
Resistance: 161.64, 162.45, 162.83
What it said to watch
H1 close below 160.60 opens the path to 160.00
Reclaim of 161.64 exposes 162.45 resistance
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and FOMC minutes Wed could shift this read
Intervention headlines remain a two-way risk into thin liquidity