Consolidation below 158.85 day high, drifting lower in early Asia.
The 13:30 UTC CPI beat lifted the pair from 158.12 to a 158.85 day high, which capped price three times through the NY afternoon. Early Asia has eased the pair to a 158.69 session low, below the ema20 at 158.74 but above the ema50 at 158.61. RSI is neutral at 49 and ATR has compressed to 4.8 pips.
Support: 158.69, 158.61, 158.55
Resistance: 158.736, 158.85, 159.00
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson remarks from 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break below the 158.69 session low exposes the ema50 at 158.61, then the 158.55 cpi pullback low near the 38.2% fib
Recovery above the ema20 at 158.74 and the 158.85 day high reopens the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk is flagged
Flat top at 158.85 session high, pullback to late low below ema20.
The post-CPI rally from 158.12, driven by the hot CPI print, stalled at the 158.85 session high, with three rejections through NY hours. Price has since slipped below the ema20 to the 158.69 late low around rollover. RSI(14) has cooled from 70.6 to 46.9 and ATR is compressing to 5 pips, with the ema50 at 158.61 the next reference below.
Support: 158.69, 158.606, 158.546
Resistance: 158.739, 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak in ~14 min and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.69 late low exposes the ema50 at 158.61 and the 158.55 cpi pullback low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 158.74 and a break of the 158.85 session high reopen the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk caps the zone
158.69–158.85 consolidation since 16:00 UTC, drifting at range low.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC lifted USD/JPY about 70 pips off 158.12. Since 16:00 UTC price has held a 158.69–158.85 consolidation, and the range top has capped it three times. Into the Asia session price is sitting at the range low, just under the ema20 and above the ema50 at 158.60, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.9 and ATR(14) compressed to 5 pips.
Support: 158.69, 158.602, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 158.69 range low exposes the ema50 at 158.60 and the 158.55 cpi pullback low, which sits near the 38.2% post-CPI fib.
A close above the 158.85 range top reopens 159.04 resistance, with MOF intervention risk rising near 159.
Flat 158.70–158.85 consolidation with lower highs into Asia.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/JPY from 158.12 to 158.85, but the move has stalled into a 158.70–158.85 consolidation since NY afternoon. Price was rejected three times at the range high, RSI(14) has cooled from 71 to 49, and ATR has compressed to 5.1 pips. Thin early-Asia trade is now probing the range low near the 158.68 200-dma, with lower highs pressing from above, price below the ema20 at 158.745 and above the ema50 at 158.597.
Support: 158.69, 158.597, 158.546
Resistance: 158.745, 158.848
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.69 range low exposes the ema50 at 158.597 and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg near 158.57
Failure to hold the 158.546 swing low would break the post-CPI higher-low chain
Close above the 158.85 range high and the lower highs trendline opens 159.04 resistance, where intervention risk builds
22:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 52 · price 158.732
158.715–158.848 range after a breakout above the Asia–London range.
The hot US CPI broke the Asia–London range at 158.16 and carried price to 158.85. Three NY-session tests capped it there, and since then price has held a 158.715–158.848 range into the post-NY close. RSI(14) has cooled from 71 to 52 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.1 pips. Price sits just under the ema20 at 158.749 and above the ema50 at 158.592, with the 158.68–158.70 cap from the digest now below price.
Support: 158.715, 158.546
Resistance: 158.749, 158.848
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could break the compressed range and shift this read
An M15 close below the 158.715 range low exposes the 158.546 swing low, with the ema50 just above it
Acceptance above the 158.848 range top opens the 159.04 resistance flagged in the digest, with intervention risk near 159
Holding back above the ema20 at 158.749 keeps price mid-range rather than leaning on the range low
22:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into a post-CPI consolidation · RSI 51 · price 158.721
Range 158.72–158.85 above the CPI breakout, testing the floor.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USDJPY out of the 157.87–158.25 Asian/London band and ran it to the 158.848 range top. Supply capped that level three times through NY hours. After NY close, price has slipped below the ema20 at 158.751 to test the 158.715 session low, with ATR(14) compressed to 5.3 pips and RSI(14) back at 50.5.
Support: 158.715, 158.586, 158.546
Resistance: 158.751, 158.848
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.715 session low exposes the ema50 at 158.586, the 38.2% CPI rally fib near 158.57 and the 158.546 swing low
Reclaim of the 158.751 ema20 and a close above the 158.848 range top reopens the CPI leg higher, with MOF intervention risk building toward 159
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak in ~74 min (23:30 UTC) and could break the consolidation either side
Post-CPI range 158.715–158.848, flat highs, compressing ATR.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a ~73-pip leg from 158.12 to 158.85. Since 16:30 UTC price has held a 158.715–158.848 consolidation, with three rejections at the range high, RSI(14) cooling from 72 to 54.8 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.4 pips. Late NY, price sits on the 158.754 ema20 with the Asia session approaching.
Support: 158.715, 158.581, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.715 range low opens the ema50 at 158.58 and the 158.546 swing low, near the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib
M15 close above the 158.848 range high opens the 159.00 psych level, with 159.04 resistance and MOF intervention risk just above
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the range in either direction
Tight 158.71–158.85 box since NY afternoon after CPI breakout.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair out of the 157.87–158.25 pre-data range, and the rally capped at the 158.848 session high. Since the NY afternoon price has compressed in a 13-pip box. Bars are holding just above the flattening ema20 and the 158.715 swing low after RSI(14) cooled from 72 to 58.8, with ATR down to 5.5 pips.
Support: 158.754, 158.715, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (in ~1h45) could break the compression either way
A close above the 158.848 session high reopens the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk is flagged
Failure to hold the 158.715 swing low exposes the 158.546 cpi pullback low, near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally
158.715–158.848 range after CPI breakout, testing range floor.
Hot US CPI broke the pair out of its 157.87–158.25 pre-data range, and the rally carried to a 158.848 range top that capped three times through NY hours. After the NY close, price slipped back below the ema20 at 158.75 to probe the 158.715 range floor. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 53.5 and ATR has compressed to 5.5 pips.
Support: 158.715, 158.565, 158.546
Resistance: 158.75, 158.848
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.715 range floor opens the ema50 at 158.565 and the 158.546 swing low, which sit near the CPI rally fib 38.2%
Close back above the ema20 at 158.75 and through the 158.848 range top resumes the post-CPI breakout toward 159.00
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the range on 50bp-hike commentary
MOF intervention risk rises as price approaches 159.00
Post-CPI impulse into a tight 158.73–158.85 range below the session high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC carried the pair out of the 157.87–158.25 Asian/London range to a 158.85 session high. Since 16:30 UTC it has compressed into a 158.73–158.85 band, with the high capped three times. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 62.5, ATR(14) has shrunk to 5.3 pips and price is holding just above the ema20 at 158.755.
Support: 158.755, 158.73, 158.55
Resistance: 158.85, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 session high breaks the post-CPI range. The 159.00 round number and 159.04 resistance sit just above, where MOF intervention risk rises.
Failure to hold the 158.73 range low exposes the 158.55 swing low, near ema50 and the CPI leg fib 38.2%.
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression.
The US CPI beat and Logan's hawkish remarks drove a ~73-pip NY session leg from 158.12 to the 158.848 session high, clearing the 158.70 prior high. Price has since been compressed in a 158.757–158.848 range, with the range low sitting just above the ema20 at 158.751. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 63 and ATR has contracted to 5.5 pips.
Support: 158.757, 158.701, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.848 session high resumes the uptrend toward the 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention risk sits
Close below the 158.757 range low and ema20 exposes the 158.70 prior high, then the 158.546 swing low near the ema50
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compression
Fib 61.8% of the CPI leg near 158.40 marks deeper retracement territory
Post-CPI leg higher, now a tight 158.73–158.85 range late in NY.
The hot US CPI broke the pair out of the 157.87–158.25 London range and carried it through the 158.70 prior high. Since 17:00 UTC it has held a 158.73–158.85 range late in NY hours. The range top has capped three times, price sits just above the ema20 at 158.74, RSI(14) has cooled to 63.7 from 78 and ATR has compressed to 5.8 pips.
Support: 158.74, 158.70, 158.55
Resistance: 158.85, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 range top opens the 159.00 psych level, with 159.04 resistance and MOF intervention risk just beyond
Break of the 158.73 range low and the ema20 exposes the 158.70 prior high
Failure to hold the 158.55 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC and Logan's hawkish remarks drove a ~73-pip post-CPI rally from 158.12 to 158.85. Since 16:30 UTC price has compressed into a 158.73–158.85 range late in the NY session, with the range top capping four times and the range low holding alongside ema20 near 158.74. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 63.7 and ATR(14) has contracted to 5.8 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 range top opens the 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
M15 close below the 158.73 range low and ema20 exposes the 158.55 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any backing for a 50bp December hike could break the range
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into late NY · RSI 63 · price 158.795
Post-CPI breakout, tight consolidation under the session high.
The hot US CPI print broke the Asian range high near 158.12 and carried price to 158.85. Since 16:00 UTC the pair has held a 158.73–158.85 consolidation in late NY hours, capped three times at the session high, with the range low sitting on the ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 63, ATR(14) has compressed to 6.1 pips, and price holds above both EMAs.
Support: 158.732, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 session high opens the 159.04 cap, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Break below the 158.73 range low / ema20 exposes the 158.55 swing low, then the 38.2% of the london-ny leg near 158.48
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; 50bp December hike talk could break the range
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into late NY · RSI 62 · price 158.783
Post-CPI higher lows, now a tight 158.73–158.85 range below a flat range top.
The US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC and Logan's hawkish remarks drove a 70-pip leg from 158.12. The pair has been boxed between the 158.73 range low and the 158.85 range top since mid-NY, with three failed pushes at the top. RSI(14) has cooled from 78 to 62, ATR is compressing to 6.3 pips, and price holds just above the rising EMA20 at 158.726.
Support: 158.732, 158.701, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could break the range; talk of a 50bp hike versus pushback on it is the swing factor
M15 close above the 158.85 range top opens 159.00, the round number, where MOF intervention risk builds
Failure to hold the 158.73 range low and EMA20 exposes the 158.70 prior high, then the 158.55 pullback low near the cpi rally fib 38.2% (~158.57)
Post-CPI higher highs, now a tight range under session high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of the London range at 158.25, and Logan's hawkish remarks extended the HH/HL chain to a session high at 158.848. Since the 16:30 UTC high, late NY trade has compressed into a 158.73–158.85 range just above ema20 (158.72), with RSI(14) easing from 79.9 and ATR shrinking to 6.4 pips.
Support: 158.73, 158.72, 158.546
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks in ~44 min; any comment on a 50bp hike could break the 158.73–158.85 range
A close above the session high exposes the 159.00 round number, with MOF intervention risk near 159
A close below the range low and ema20 points to the 158.546 pullback low and the CPI trendline
Losing the CPI trendline would end the post-CPI higher-low sequence
Post-CPI higher highs, late-NY tight range near session high.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 157.87–158.25 London session range, and Logan's hawkish remarks extended the leg to a 158.84 session high. Late NY has compressed into a 158.73–158.84 range above the ema20 (158.71) and the 158.70 prior high. ATR has eased to 6.5 pips and RSI(14) at 70.6 is pressing the range top.
Support: 158.73, 158.70, 158.55
Resistance: 158.84, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could break the late-NY range either way
M15 close above the 158.84 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play, where intervention risk rises
Close below the 158.73 range low and the ema20 exposes the 158.70 prior high, then the 158.55 swing low near the 38.2% of the post-CPI leg
Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC are a second risk window in the Asia session
Post-CPI higher highs, now a tight range under the session high.
The hot US CPI beat and Logan's hike talk carried USD/JPY from 158.12 through the 158.68–158.70 cap to a session high at 158.844. Late in the NY session price has held a 158.73–158.84 range for about 2.5h with ATR(14) contracting to 6.9 pips. RSI(14) is flat at 70 on the retests, below the 78 reading at the first high, a mild bearish divergence; price stays above the ema20 at 158.698.
Support: 158.732, 158.698, 158.546
Resistance: 158.844, 159.04
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read
M15 close above the 158.844 session high opens the 159.04 cap, where MOF intervention risk sits
Break of the 158.732 range low exposes the ema20 at 158.698, then the 158.546 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Post-CPI HH/HL leg, tight consolidation under session high.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC lifted USD/JPY through the Asian range and the 158.70 cap, building a HH/HL chain along the CPI trendline to a 158.844 session high. Late in the NY session price is boxed between the 158.73 range floor and that high. The retest of the high came on lower RSI (78.2 to 69.4), a mild bearish divergence, and ATR has compressed to 7.1 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.684, 158.546
Resistance: 158.844, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.844 session high resumes the leg toward the 159.04 cap, where MOF intervention risk sits
Close below the 158.73 range floor and ema20 at 158.684 ends the consolidation and exposes the 158.546 swing low
Break of the CPI trendline shifts the read to a deeper retracement of the CPI leg fib
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher highs and higher lows, now consolidating under the 158.84 session high.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) broke the Asian range and drove a NY-session leg from 158.12 to the 158.84 session high, extended by Logan's hike comments. Price has pinned under that high late in NY, with the 158.73 swing low and the ema20 at 158.67 holding, RSI(14) cooling from 79.9 to 66.9 and ATR easing to 7.3 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.671, 158.546
Resistance: 158.844, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.84 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention risk sits
Break of the 158.73 swing low exposes the ema20 at 158.67 and the 158.55 pullback low, the 38.2% retrace of the CPI leg
Loss of the CPI trend support from the 158.12 low would end the higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher lows, tight box under session high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USDJPY out of the 157.87–158.25 London range. NY extended a higher-low chain from the 158.546 pullback low to a 158.844 session high, clearing the 158.68–158.70 cap. Late in NY, price is boxed between the 158.732 swing low and the session high, holding above the ema20 at 158.659; RSI(14) is 69.3, down from its 79.9 peak, and ATR(14) has compressed to 7.5 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.659, 158.546
Resistance: 158.844, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.732 swing low breaks the box and puts the ema20 at 158.659 in play
Failure to hold the 158.546 pullback low breaks the higher-low line and the post-CPI sequence
A close above the 158.844 session high opens 159.04 res, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read on 25 vs 50bp talk
Post-CPI higher lows, flat cap at 158.84 session high.
The hot US CPI broke the Asian and London range near 158.12–158.25 and drove the CPI leg to 158.84, with higher lows through the NY session and price above the ema20 at 158.645. Late NY is stalling under the 158.84 session high: the second test came with RSI(14) at 69.4, against 79.9 on the first push, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has eased to 7.9 pips.
Support: 158.73, 158.70, 158.645
Resistance: 158.844, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.84 session high puts the 159.04 res (MOF intervention zone) in play
Failure to hold the 158.73 swing low and the 158.70 prior high breaks the higher-low line
A drop below the ema20 at 158.645 opens the 38.2% of the CPI leg near 158.57
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; comments on a 25bp vs 50bp hike could shift this read
Post-CPI breakout, stalling at 158.84 session high.
The hot US CPI beat and hawkish Fed talk drove the CPI leg out of the Asian range and through 158.25, reaching a 158.84 session high late in NY. Two tests of that high came on fading RSI(14), from 79.9 at the 158.70 prior high down to 69.4. Price holds above the 158.73 swing low and ema20 at 158.627, and ATR(14) has eased to 8.2 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.701, 158.627
Resistance: 158.844, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.73 swing low and the 158.70 prior high (200-dma area) would print the first lower low since CPI
Acceptance above the 158.84 session high exposes 159.00 psych, where MOF intervention risk builds
Loss of ema20 at 158.627 opens a deeper retrace of the CPI leg toward its 50% near 158.48
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since CPI; session high retested at 158.84.
The hot US CPI beat drove a leg from 158.12 through the 158.70 prior high, with higher lows holding through NY hours. After London close the 158.84 session high was retested on lower RSI(14) peaks (79.9 to 78.2 to 69.4), a bearish divergence on a narrowing ATR of 8.3 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.701, 158.608
Resistance: 158.844, 159.04
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.73 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
Loss of the 158.70 prior high and ema20 at 158.61 opens the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg near 158.57
Close above the 158.84 session high clears the double tap and brings the 159.04 cap and MOF intervention risk into view
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout of the Asian range, higher-low chain intact.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pair out of the 157.87–158.25 London range, and the CPI leg has run to a 158.843 session high with higher lows at the 158.546 pullback low and the 158.732 swing low. RSI(14) at 72.2 made a lower peak on the new high (78.2 vs 79.9), so momentum is cooling. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 158.59, with ATR near 8 pips.
Support: 158.732, 158.59, 158.546
Resistance: 158.843, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.732 swing low would break the higher-low chain and expose the ema20 at 158.59
Failure to hold the 158.546 pullback low would retrace most of the CPI leg
M15 close above the 158.843 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior advances
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher highs and higher lows, pausing below session high.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-CPI high at 158.25, and NY has since stacked higher lows along the post-CPI trendline to a 158.84 session high. Price holds above ema20 (158.57) and ema50 (158.34) just over the 158.70 prior high. RSI(14) has cooled to 70 after a lower peak on the latest high (78.2 vs 79.9), a mild bearish divergence, with ATR easing to 8.5 pips after London close.
Support: 158.70, 158.55, 158.25
Resistance: 158.84, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.70 prior high puts the breakout under pressure
Break of the 158.55 swing low and the post-CPI trendline ends the higher-low chain
Close above the 158.84 session high opens the 159.04 cap, where intervention risk builds
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, with a 25bp vs 50bp December framing, could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI beat broke USD/JPY out of the 157.87–158.25 Asian and London range, and NY extended to a 158.843 session high after holding the 158.546 swing low, which now sits on the ema20 and near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) made a lower peak at 78.2 against 79.9 at the 158.701 prior high, so the last push came on fading momentum. The first pullback is under way with ATR(14) at 8.7 pips.
Support: 158.701, 158.547
Resistance: 158.843, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.701 prior high puts the swing low and ema20 at 158.547 in play
Failure to hold the 158.546 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
Close above the 158.843 session high leaves the 159.04 intervention cap as the next reference, where MOF rhetoric risk rises
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could reframe 25bp vs 50bp December pricing
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into late NY · RSI 78 · price 158.805
Higher highs and higher lows since the CPI breakout; latest higher low at 158.546.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 158.251 pre-CPI high, and NY has stepped up to a session high at 158.843. The 158.546 swing low held as the latest higher low, and the 158.70 prior high has flipped to support. RSI(14) at 78.2 is overbought but below 80, and ATR(14) is steady near 8.8 pips.
Support: 158.70, 158.546, 158.251
Resistance: 158.843, 159.04
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.70 prior high puts the breakout leg into question
Failure to hold the 158.546 swing low (38.2% fib zone) breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
The 159.04 intervention zone overhead is where MOF rhetoric risk rises
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into session high · RSI 77 · price 158.786
Post-CPI breakout, HH/HL chain through NY.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 13:30 UTC breakout above the 158.25 London high, and NY has extended a HH/HL chain to a 158.80 session high, with ATR(14) up to 9 pips from about 6.6. RSI(14) at 77.1 is overbought but below its 79.9 print at the 158.70 prior high, a mild bearish divergence. The 158.55 swing low and ema20 at 158.49 sit beneath.
Support: 158.70, 158.546, 158.492
Resistance: 158.80, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.70 prior high puts the breakout into a retest
Loss of the 158.55 swing low and the post-CPI trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
The 50% retrace of the CPI leg near 158.46 lines up with ema20, the next support pocket
MOF intervention risk is flagged into 159; a test of the 159.00 psych level is where supply has been expected
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher highs and higher lows, 158.546 higher low intact.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) lifted the pair out of the 157.87–158.25 London range and through the pre-CPI high. It has since built a higher-high chain to a 158.751 session high in NY hours. RSI(14) at 75.4 has made a lower high than the 79.9 reading at 158.70, a mild bearish divergence at the highs, with ATR at 9.1 pips.
Support: 158.546, 158.46, 158.251
Resistance: 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.546 higher low breaks the post-CPI swing chain and exposes ema20 at 158.46
A move back below the 158.251 pre-CPI high would put the rising support line from the 157.87 London low in play and erase most of the CPI leg
Sustained trade above the 158.751 session high brings the 159.00 round number into view, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior advances
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any echo of a 50bp December call could extend the CPI move
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after CPI · RSI 73 · price 158.718
Post-CPI breakout, higher low at 158.55, pressing session high.
The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the Asian and London range and drove a 58-pip CPI leg from 158.12 to the 158.70 prior high, the 200dma area. The 158.55 swing low held on the pullback, and price is now printing a fresh session high near 158.72 into London close. RSI(14) at 73.3 is overbought but below its 79.9 peak at a similar price, a mild bearish divergence, with ATR(14) expanded to 9.3 pips.
Support: 158.70, 158.546, 158.43
Resistance: 158.724, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.70 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.55 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain; the ema20 at 158.43 sits near the 50% of the CPI leg fib
The 159.00 psych level and MOF intervention rhetoric sit just above the session high
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout, higher low at 158.55 under 158.70 high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) drove a NY-session breakout from the 157.87–158.25 London range to a 158.70 session high, and the shallow pullback held at 158.55 on the post-CPI trendline. RSI(14) has cooled from 79.9 to 71.1, still overbought, and ATR(14) has expanded to 9 pips from 6.5. Price holds well above the ema20 at 158.40.
Support: 158.546, 158.403, 158.251
Resistance: 158.701, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.55 pullback low breaks the post-CPI higher-low sequence and exposes the ema20 at 158.40
A close above the 158.70 session high opens the path to the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk is flagged
A return below the 158.25 pre-CPI high would mark the breakout as a false break
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC (~4.7h); 25 vs 50bp hike framing could shift this read
Post-CPI breakout above London range, higher lows intact, first pullback from session high.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a breakout from the 157.87–158.25 London range. Price ran to a 158.70 session high at the 200dma, then stalled during the London-NY transition as RSI(14) cooled from 79.9 to 68.6. Rising lows from London are intact, and price is holding above the 158.45 post-CPI low with the ema20 at 158.38.
Support: 158.45, 158.379, 158.25
Resistance: 158.70, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.45 post-CPI low puts the ema20 at 158.38 and the 158.25 pre-CPI high back in play
Acceptance above the 158.70 session high / 200dma opens the 159.04 cap, where intervention rhetoric has capped gains
A break of the rising lows trendline from London would end the higher-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: endorsing a 50bp December hike could extend the CPI move, and sticking to 25bp could unwind it
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USD/JPY out of the 157.87–158.25 Asia-London range and carried it to a session high at 158.654 early in the NY session. RSI(14) at 78.9 is overbought but still under 80, and ATR has expanded to 9.2 pips. The cpi low at 158.452 and the pre-CPI high at 158.251 frame the pullback zone, with ema20 at 158.295 and rising support from the London low underneath.
Support: 158.452, 158.295, 158.251
Resistance: 158.654, 159.00
What it said to watch
Session high at 158.654 is the area to watch for rejection or break. Above it, the 159.00 round number is where MOF intervention rhetoric becomes a live risk.
An M15 close below the cpi low at 158.452 would mark the first lower-low since the breakout.
Losing the pre-CPI high at 158.251, together with a break of rising support from the London low, would neutralise the breakout read.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read on the 50bp December question.
The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USD/JPY out of the Waller-led London grind above the 158.25 pre-cpi high, printing a 158.58 session high in the first hour of NY. Post-CPI bars are holding above the 158.45 post-cpi low, with RSI(14) at 76.2 overbought and ATR(14) up to 9.1 pips from 6.5. Ema20 at 158.26 is rising into the pre-cpi high, and the rising support from the 157.87 london low sits below.
Support: 158.45, 158.25, 157.87
Resistance: 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.45 post-cpi low would put the CPI breakout back toward the 158.25 pre-cpi high and ema20
Failure to clear the 158.58 session high leaves a stall under resistance with RSI overbought
Intervention rhetoric as price approaches the 159.00 psych level could cap the extension
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC (~6h); a push back against 50bp hike talk could unwind the CPI move
A break of rising support from the london low would end the intraday higher-low chain
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended after CPI · RSI 74 · price 158.545
Higher lows from London low; CPI break of the day's range.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDJPY through the pre-CPI high at 158.251 early in the NY session. That extended the rising-support chain off the 157.871 London low, and the move stalled at the 158.579 CPI high with RSI(14) overbought at 73.5 and ATR expanding to 8.9 pips. The post-CPI low at 158.452 has held the first-hour pullbacks so far, with the ema50 at 158.12 below the old range.
Support: 158.452, 158.251, 158.12
Resistance: 158.579, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.452 post-cpi low puts price back toward the 158.251 pre-cpi high
Clean break above the 158.579 cpi high leaves the 158.70 area and 159.00 psych in view, where intervention rhetoric caps
RSI rolling under 70 while the cpi high holds would mark the CPI leg as stalling
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Loss of the rising support from the London low would break the higher-low chain
Higher-low chain from the London low; post-CPI breakout above the 158.25 pre-CPI high.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 30-pip impulse through the 158.25 pre-CPI high. That extended the higher-low chain off the 157.87 London low, which had already cleared the 157.91–158.12 Asian range after Waller's comments. Price is pressing the 158.55 CPI high with RSI(14) at 76.5 and ATR expanding to 8.8 pips from 6.5.
Support: 158.25, 158.20, 158.12
Resistance: 158.55, 158.70
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.25 pre-CPI high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break; a 38.2% retrace of the London-CPI leg sits near 158.29
An M15 close below the ema20 at 158.20 and the cpi bar low at 158.12 breaks the rising line from the London low
The 158.70 resistance zone overhead, with MOF intervention rhetoric near 159, could cap extension beyond the CPI high
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the post-CPI read
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, hot CPI breakout · RSI 75 · price 158.473
Higher lows off London low; impulsive break above pre-CPI high.
Hotter US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 36-pip spike at the NY open through the 158.25 london high. That extends the higher-low trendline off the 157.87 London low, with RSI(14) overbought at 74.7 and ATR expanding to 8.7 pips. The cpi high at 158.49 sits just under the 158.53 range top, and the 158.68 intervention zone is above that.
Support: 158.25, 158.166, 158.12
Resistance: 158.494, 158.53, 158.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 range top exposes 158.68, where MoF intervention risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.25 london high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break, with ema20 at 158.17 and the cpi bar low at 158.12 below
A break of the higher-low trendline near 158.18 ends the London-NY up-sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the post-CPI read
London higher-low chain broke Monday's NY high; CPI bar breaking 158.25.
After weak Japan data lifted the pair back over 158.00 in Asia, London built higher lows off the 157.90 london low and took out Monday's NY high near 158.19 into a 158.25 pre-CPI high. ATR(14) compressed to 6.6 pips and RSI(14) sat at 56.6 into the US CPI release. The release bar, still forming, has spiked to a 158.43 cpi high.
Support: 158.251, 158.134, 157.898
Resistance: 158.43, 158.53, 158.68
What it said to watch
CPI bar closing back below the 158.25 pre-cpi high would turn the spike into a false break
158.53 range top and the 158.68 interv risk zone flagged for MoF intervention, an area to watch for rejection
Break of rising support and the ema20 near 158.13 would end the London higher-low chain and expose the 157.90 london low
CPI actuals not yet in feed; a soft core m/m vs 0.2% f/c could reverse the spike, with Bowman due 20:30 UTC
Higher lows since London open, holding just below the session high.
London broke above the Asian range (157.91–158.12) on Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC, and price has printed higher lows along rising support since. It set a session high at 158.25, above Monday's 158.19 prior high. ATR(14) has compressed from 9.1 to 6.5 pips ahead of US CPI. Price holds above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 62, which is not stretched.
Support: 158.163, 158.131, 158.00
Resistance: 158.251, 158.53, 158.68
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is likely to produce a move well beyond the 6.5-pip ATR and could reset this read
A break of the 158.25 session high exposes the 158.53 range top, then the 158.68 200dma, where intervention risk rises
An M15 close below the 158.16 swing low and the ema20 at 158.13 breaks the rising support line
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
Higher lows since the London low, pausing below session high.
Yen-negative Japan data and Waller's hawkish remarks lifted USDJPY out of the Asian range. London built higher lows from 157.871 to a 158.251 session high, briefly clearing the prior high at 158.187. Price is now holding just under that prior high, above the ema20 at 158.123, with RSI(14) easing from 65 and ATR compressing to 6.6 pips ahead of CPI.
Support: 158.123, 158.067, 158.00
Resistance: 158.187, 158.251, 158.70
What it said to watch
US CPI in 29 min (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP in 14 min could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.251 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.70 mof zone, where intervention risk sits
Loss of the ema20 and the 158.067 pullback low (near 50% fib) breaks the London higher-low sequence
Break below the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
London break above Asian range, higher lows to 158.251.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC drove a London leg above the 158.121 Asian high, after soft Japan data had already lifted the pair back over 158.00 in Asia. Higher lows carried price to a 158.251 session high, and it now sits back at yesterday's 158.187 high. RSI(14) is easing to 61 and ATR has compressed to 6.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.121, 158.003, 157.898
Resistance: 158.251
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m), preceded by ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.251 session high extends the London higher-high chain
Close back below the 158.121 Asian high and ema20 (158.117), near the 38.2% of the London leg fib, turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.003 swing low reopens the 157.898 London low
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, volatility compressing into US CPI · RSI 65 · price 158.205
Higher-low grind since the London low, holding above the prior high.
After a sweep of the Asian range low at 157.871 early in London, Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC lifted USD/JPY out of the range. The London leg has since stacked higher lows to a 158.251 session high and is holding just above Monday's prior high at 158.187. RSI(14) is at 65.1, not stretched, and ATR has compressed to 6.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.187, 158.109, 158.00
Resistance: 158.251, 158.70
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~60 min) could materially shift this read; the 6.7-pip ATR understates the likely post-print range
An M15 close back below the prior high at 158.187 puts the breakout in question; ema20 at 158.109 sits at the 38.2% retracement of the london leg
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number returns price to the Asian range
A clean break of the 158.251 session high leaves the 158.70 intervention zone as the next cap flagged in the digest
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, HH/HL chain through London · RSI 64 · price 158.205
Asian range broken higher, prior-day high cleared, pre-CPI compression.
Yen softness after Japan's data misses carried into London. The Waller-speech bar broke the Asian range high at 158.121, and price has since stepped higher in a HH/HL chain along a rising line to a 158.238 session high, clearing the prior-day high at 158.187. RSI(14) is at 64 with price above both EMAs, while ATR has compressed to 6.9 pips from 9.1 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.121, 158.098, 158.003
Resistance: 158.238, 158.68
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m), preceded by the ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, can override this M15 structure
An M15 close back below the asian high at 158.121 and the ema20 at 158.098 (also the 38.2% of the london leg fib) would mark a failed breakout
Losing the 158.003 swing low breaks the rising line and the London HH/HL chain
A clean break of the 158.238 session high leaves the 158.68 200-dma, an intervention-sensitive zone, as the next reference
HH/HL chain from London low 157.87, Asian range broken higher, pressing 24h high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.12 with the 09:00 UTC thrust, extending the yen weakness that followed Japan's soft household spending data. Price has since stepped up in higher lows to a 158.20 session high, just above Monday's 158.19 peak. RSI(14) at 62.9 is not stretched, and ATR(14) has slipped to 6.9 pips into late London ahead of US CPI. The first pullback area is the ema20 at 158.09, with the 158.00 round number below it.
Support: 158.087, 158.00, 157.86
Resistance: 158.20
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.20 session high extends the HH chain; stalling there leaves a second failed test of Monday's high
Loss of the ema20 at 158.09 and the 158.00 round number (61.8% of the london leg) neutralises the Asian range breakout
Return below the asian low at 157.86 would turn the London move into a false break
Yen softness after Japan's data misses lifted the pair back above the 158.00 psych level in Asia. The London advance from the 157.87 london low is now pressing yesterday's 158.19 prior high, with price above the ema20 at 158.08. RSI(14) sits at 62.4 and ATR has eased to 7.3 pips into US CPI.
Support: 158.076, 158.00, 157.871
Resistance: 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 prior high breaks yesterday's range top
Loss of the ema20 at 158.08 and the 158.00 psych level breaks the London higher-low chain
Break below the 157.87 london low turns the session structure lower
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 158.157
London swept the Asian low, then a higher-low chain into the session high.
Yen softened on Tokyo's data misses. London then swept the Asian low to 157.87 before the 09:15 UTC bar, during Waller's speech, lifted price through the 157.91–158.12 Asian range. Higher lows since the 158.00 swing low have carried price to a session high of 158.19, level with yesterday's high, with price above the ema20 at 158.067 and RSI(14) at 61.2.
Support: 158.12, 158.067, 158.00
Resistance: 158.193, 158.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 session high clears yesterday's high and puts the 158.68 200-dma and intervention zone in play
Break of rising support and a close back below the 158.12 Asian high returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the 158.00 swing low undoes the London higher-low sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; Asian range high broken, price coiling under 158.16.
After the yen softened on Japan's data misses in Asia, London dipped to 157.87, then broke the Asian range high near 158.12 to a 158.16 session high. Higher lows at the 158.00 swing low and the 158.07 higher low keep price above the ema20 (158.056), with RSI(14) at 58.6 and ATR easing to 7.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.07, 158.056, 158.003
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 session high and the 158.19 prior high (Monday) extends the London leg
Loss of the 158.07 higher low and the ema20 at 158.056 exposes the 158.00 swing low; a break there puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the rising trendline from the 157.87 London low ends the higher-low sequence
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h15m), with the ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Intraday upturn, holding under London high · RSI 58 · price 158.128
Higher lows since 157.87 London low; tight 158.00–158.16 box above Asian range.
USDJPY broke the 157.91–158.12 Asian range on the 09:00 UTC bar (Waller speaking), extending the yen softness that followed weak Japanese data. The 50% pullback held near the 158.00 round number, and price has compressed above the ema20 below the 158.16 London high. RSI(14) is 58 and ATR has edged up to 8 pips.
Support: 158.048, 158.003, 157.872
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Close above the 158.16 London high exposes the 158.19 Monday high
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 157.87 London low invalidates the higher-low sequence
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, momentum steady · RSI 55 · price 158.081
Higher low at 158.00 after break of Asian range high; tight range under session high.
Yen softened in Asia after weak Japanese spending data. London opened with a false break below the Asian range to 157.87, and the 09:00 UTC bar took out the Asian high at 158.12 to a 158.162 session high. Price now holds a higher low near the 158.00 psych level, above both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 54.7 and ATR(14) up to 8.1 pips from 6.7; the London leg is only shallowly retraced.
Support: 158.003, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.188 prior high clears yesterday's NY peak
Close back below the 158.00 psych level breaks the higher low and returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the london low at 157.872 negates the false-break read and exposes the 157.667 swing low
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h45m, core f/c 0.2% MoM) and ADP at 13:15 could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high, now a tight 158.03–158.14 shelf.
After weak Japan spending data lifted the pair through 158.00 in Asia, London's 09:00 UTC leg (around Waller's remarks) broke the Asian range high at 158.12 and printed a session high at 158.162. Since then price has held a narrow 158.03–158.14 shelf above the ema20 (158.034) and ema50 (158.012). RSI(14) at 57 and ATR(14) has widened to about 8 pips from 7.
Support: 158.034, 158.00, 157.872
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the ema20 at 158.03 and the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 158.162 session high and the 158.188 prior high clears the 24h top
Loss of the 157.872 london low unwinds the whole London leg
10:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows, capped near Asian high · RSI 57 · price 158.091
Higher lows off London low, pressing the 158.12–158.19 range top.
Yen softness after weak Japanese spending data lifted USD/JPY in Asia. London then built higher lows off the 157.87 London low, with the 09:00 UTC spike to a 158.16 session high fading back under the 158.12 Asian high. Price holds above the ema20 (158.03) and the 158.00 swing low on a rising intraday trendline, ATR(14) expanding to 8.4 pips with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 158.027, 158.003, 157.872
Resistance: 158.123, 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 session high exposes the 158.19 prior high from yesterday's NY peak
Loss of the 158.00 swing low and ema20 breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 157.87 London low
Price holding near 61.8% of the London leg fib keeps the higher-low chain intact
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Range, upward push in London · RSI 57 · price 158.105
London swept the Asian low, then broke above the Asian high; higher low at 158.003.
London dipped under the 157.91 Asian range low to a 157.872 london low, then rallied through the 158.123 asian high to 158.162 at the time of Fed's Waller speech. Overnight Japan data misses keep the yen soft. A 158.003 higher low formed near the ema20/ema50 cluster, and price is holding just under the asian high with RSI 57 and ATR widening to 8.6 pips.
Support: 158.018, 158.003, 157.872
Resistance: 158.123, 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.162 session high and 158.188 prior high (yesterday's NY peak) extends the London breakout
Losing the 158.003 higher low and the ema20 at 158.018 puts price back inside the Asian range
A break of the 157.872 london low turns the sweep into a lower low
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP at 13:15) could materially shift this read; ATR already expanding into it
09:46 UTC
Range, London pressing the upper edge · RSI 58 · price 158.105
Asian low swept, Asian high taken, higher low at 158.00.
Soft Japan data overnight kept the pair back above 158.00. London then swept the Asian low at 157.872 and ran through the Asian high to a 158.162 session high around Waller's remarks. The pullback held 158.003, at the ema20/ema50 cluster and near the 61.8% of the London leg, with RSI(14) at 58.4 and ATR expanding to 9.1 pips into US CPI.
Support: 158.009, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188, 158.53
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.188 prior high clears Monday's peak and puts the 158.53 range top in play
Loss of the ema20 at 158.009 and the London rising-lows line reopens the 157.872 london low
A break of 157.872 exposes the 157.667 window low from Monday's NY selloff
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Sideways, two-way intraday range · RSI 53 · price 158.059
157.87–158.12 range since Asia; spike above top rejected.
The spike during Fed's Waller speech swept the 158.12 Asian high to 158.16, then faded back inside the 157.87–158.12 range. That range has held since weak Japan data lifted the pair off Monday's 157.67 swing low. Price sits just above flat EMAs near 158.00 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.4, while ATR expands to 8.8 pips into US CPI.
Support: 157.997, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 waller high and 158.19 prior high breaks the range top
Loss of the 158.00 ema20 and the 157.87 london low exposes the rising lows line and the 157.67 swing low
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-wk average due 15 minutes earlier
09:16 UTC
Range break higher, early London · RSI 61 · price 158.123
Broke 157.87–158.12 Asia/London range on 09:00 UTC bar.
Weak Japanese data kept a floor under the pair through Asia. The 09:00 UTC bar, during Waller's remarks, lifted USDJPY out of the 157.87–158.12 range above the Asian high to a 158.16 session high. RSI(14) is 60.9 and ATR has expanded to 8.7 pips, with Monday's NY prior high at 158.19 just overhead and the flat, converged EMA20/50 at 157.99 below.
Support: 158.123, 157.993, 157.872
Resistance: 158.162, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.12 Asian high puts price back inside the range and turns the break into a false break
M15 close above the 158.19 prior high clears Monday's NY peak and extends the London breakout
A retrace of the London-low leg toward the 61.8% fib near the 157.99 ema20 tests whether the break holds
Loss of the 157.87 London low exposes Monday's 157.67 swing low
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP 4-wk avg at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 158.073
Range 157.87–158.19 after London swept the Asian low.
USDJPY has held a 157.87–158.19 range since recovering from Monday's NY-session spike to the 157.67 monday low, with soft Japan data keeping it pinned near 158.00. London swept the Asian low to the 157.87 london low and recovered. The bar opening into Waller's 09:00 UTC speech is lifting price toward the 158.12 asian high, though the last close of 157.947 sat below the flat ema20/ema50 near 157.98, with RSI(14) at a neutral 46.6.
Support: 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.12 asian high would break the range top and expose the 158.19 monday high.
Failure back below the 157.87 london low would void the sweep read and open the 157.67 monday low.
Waller is speaking now (09:00 UTC), and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% MoM, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read. ATR is 7.7 pips and edging higher.
London open dipped under the asian low at 157.91 to 157.872 and snapped back inside, a false break, leaving price below a flat ema20/ema50 at 157.98–157.99 with RSI(14) 45.3 and ATR(14) up to 7.7 pips. Weak Japan data held the pair near 158.00 overnight, but a chain of lower highs from the 158.123 asian high is capping rebounds.
Support: 157.91, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 157.981, 158.067, 158.123
What it said to watch
Waller at 09:00 UTC (14 min) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the london low 157.872 breaks the range floor and exposes the monday low at 157.667
Close back above the ema20 and the 158.067 london high breaks the lower highs line toward the 158.123 asian high
08:31 UTC
Sideways, below flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 157.972
Asian range 157.91–158.12 intact; London swept below the low and reversed.
London swept the 157.91 asian low to 157.87, then stalled at the 158.07 london high. Price is back under the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 157.99, inside the session range. Weak Japanese data held the pair near 158.00 overnight, RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and ATR(14) has expanded to 7.8 pips into London.
Support: 157.91, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 157.986, 158.067, 158.123
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 london high, then the 158.12 asian high, breaks the session range
Failure to hold the 157.87 london low exposes yesterday's NY swing low at 157.67, beyond the 61.8% of the recovery fib
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 157.99 keeps price pinned to the lower half of the range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop into CPI · RSI 49 · price 158.011
Range inside the Asian range 157.91–158.12; London swept the low and reclaimed it.
Weak Japan data lifted the pair back over 158.00 in Asia, and it has since been boxed in the Asian range of 157.91–158.12. Early London swept the Asian low to 157.87, near the 50% fib of the 157.67–158.12 rally, and reclaimed it, though the London high at 158.07 is capping so far. Price sits just below a flat EMA20/EMA50 near 157.99; RSI is neutral at 48.6 and ATR has widened to 7.9 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.067, 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller speaks in ~45 min and could break the Asian range either way
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
An M15 close below the London low at 157.87 negates the sweep and exposes the prior low at 157.67
An M15 close above the Asian high at 158.12 opens the prior high at 158.19
Repeated failure at the London high at 158.07 keeps the range intact
157.87–158.12 range after overnight recovery from 157.67.
Soft Japan data lifted USDJPY off yesterday's 157.67 prior low to a 158.12 Asia high. Since then a run of lower highs has squeezed price into a tight range. Into London open, the dip to a 157.87 session low swept the Asian range low, held near the 50–61.8% zone of the recovery fib and closed back above the ema20 at 158.01, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.7 and ATR rising to 7.7 pips.
Support: 157.991, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.07, 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.19 prior high
Sustained trade back below the ema20 at 157.99 returns price to the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 157.87 session low exposes the 157.67 prior low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.90–158.12, lower highs since 00:30 UTC.
Asia held a 157.90–158.12 range after the recovery from Monday's NY-session swing low at 157.67, with session highs stepping lower since the 158.12 Asian high. London open has probed the Asian low near 157.90, and price sits just under a flat ema20/ema50 around 157.99. RSI(14) at 43.7 is neutral and ATR(14) has edged up to 7.2 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 157.898, 157.667
Resistance: 157.989, 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.90 Asian low opens the path back toward the 157.67 swing low
Close above the lower-highs line near 158.07 and the 158.12 Asian high would put the 158.19 prior high from Monday's NY session back in view
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 157.99 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Flat, compressing inside Asian range · RSI 48 · price 157.974
Range 157.91–158.12, lower highs since 05:30 UTC.
Early London is trading inside the Asian range of 157.91–158.12. The late-NY drop to the 157.67 swing low has been retraced, and price now holds near the 38.2% of that recovery fib. Price sits just under the flat ema20/ema50 at 157.996, highs have been edging lower since 05:30 UTC, and RSI(14) at 48 with ATR at 6.9 pips shows compression ahead of US CPI.
Support: 157.91, 157.895, 157.667
Resistance: 157.996, 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 asian low exposes the fib 50% at 157.895, then the 157.67 swing low
Close back above the ema20 and the 158.12 asian high reopens Monday's 158.19 prior high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range early
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this range read
Asian range 157.91–158.12 with lower highs onto a flat floor.
After the NY-session drop to the 157.67 ny low, weak Japan data lifted the pair back toward 158.12 early in Asia. Since then the Asian range has compressed, with lower highs at 158.11 and 158.07 pressing onto a floor near the 157.91 asian low. Into London open, price sits just under a flat ema20/ema50 pair near 158.00, with RSI at 47 and ATR at 7 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.667
Resistance: 157.998, 158.07, 158.123
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.67 ny low
Close back above the ema20 near 158.00 and the 158.07 lower high puts the 158.12 asian high back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the compression before CPI
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this range read
07:01 UTC
Sideways, EMAs flat near 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 157.994
Asian range 157.91–158.12 inside Monday's 157.67–158.19 span.
Weak Japan household spending and current-account data lifted USD/JPY back above 158.00 early in Asia, recovering most of Monday evening's Iran-driven slide to the 157.67 monday low. Since then price has held between the 157.91 asian low and the 158.12 asian high, which sit near the 38.2–50% zone of the rebound fib. Into the London open it sits at the flat 20/50 EMAs around 158.00, with RSI at 51 and ATR at 7.1 pips, and no setup in play.
Support: 157.91, 157.85, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 asian low exposes the 157.85 swing low and the 61.8% rebound fib
Close above the 158.12 asian high reopens Monday's 158.19 prior high
Failure to hold 157.85 swing low brings the 157.67 monday low back into view
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Flat, compressing below EMAs · RSI 48 · price 157.964
Late-Asia lower highs against flat lows near 157.91.
Weak Japan household spending and current account data lifted USD/JPY from the 157.67 NY low to the 158.12 Asia high, near the fib 38.2% retrace of that rebound. Since then late-Asia trade has compressed into a 157.91–158.07 band, with lower highs and the asia low holding three times. Price sits just under flat EMAs, with the ema20 at 158.00, into London open. RSI 47.9 is neutral and ATR 7.1 pips is edging higher.
Support: 157.91, 157.667
Resistance: 158.00, 158.07, 158.123
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the descending highs line and puts the 158.12 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.91 asia low exposes the fib 61.8% near 157.84 and the 157.67 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the compression before London builds a range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 55 · price 158.011
Asian range 157.91–158.12 after recovery from late-NY low.
After recovering the late-NY drop to the 157.67 ny low, Asia has held a tight 157.91–158.12 range. Dip demand has held the 157.91 asian low three times despite a batch of soft Japan data. Price sits just above a flat ema20 near 158.00, with RSI(14) at 54.6 and ATR at 6.8 pips. No break is in play.
Support: 158.003, 157.91, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 asian high opens the 158.19 prior high
Close below the 157.91 asian low reopens the 157.67 ny low and puts the recovery fib in question
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range early
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk and could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.91–158.12, lower highs, flat EMAs.
USD/JPY recovered the late-NY slide to the 157.67 NY low on broad USD softness, helped by weak Japan data softening the yen. Asia has since compressed into a 157.91–158.12 Asian range with lower highs, and price sits just above flat ema20/ema50 near 158.00. RSI(14) is neutral at 50.7, and ATR is 6.9 pips.
Support: 157.998, 157.91, 157.667
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 Asian high breaks the range top and exposes the 158.19 prior high, then the 158.28 day high
Close below the 157.91 Asian low opens the 61.8% fib of the NY-low rise near 157.84, then the 157.67 NY low
Losing ema20 at 157.998 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Neutral, recovering from NY low · RSI 57 · price 158.043
Late-Asia range 157.92–158.12 above the NY low.
Weak Japan data helped Asia retrace the NY-hours flush to the 157.67 NY low, which came as USD softened on falling oil and yields. Late Asia has settled into a 157.92–158.12 range, with the asia lows holding twice and price just above the flat ema20/ema50 near 158.00. RSI(14) is 57 and ATR(14) is 6.7 pips, so no setup is in play into London.
Support: 157.998, 157.92, 157.67
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 asian high opens the 158.19 ny high
Loss of the 157.92 asia lows exposes the 50% retrace near 157.90, then the 157.67 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Flat intraday, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 49 · price 158.032
Tightening range 157.91–158.05 below a descending trendline.
The soft Japan household spending miss lifted USDJPY from the 157.86 rollover low to a 158.12 Asian high. Tokyo has since printed lower highs, and price is compressing into 157.91–158.05 and pressing the descending trendline. RSI(14) sits near 49 and ATR is about 7 pips, so no directional setup is in play ahead of Waller and US CPI.
Support: 157.91, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.05, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.05 trendline opens a retest of the 158.12 asian high, then the 158.19 ny high
Failure to hold the 157.91 session low exposes the 157.86 rollover low and the 157.67 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the compression before London builds a range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 158.12 Asian high, base at 157.91.
The rebound from yesterday's 157.67 NY low reached the 158.12 Asian high after the weak Japan household spending print. Late in the Asia session, price has faded through a series of lower highs, now near 158.02, and sits on the 38.2% retracement just above the 157.91 Asian low.
Support: 157.91, 157.84, 157.67
Resistance: 158.02, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.02 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 158.12 Asian high and 158.19 prior high sit above
Failure to hold the 157.91 Asian low exposes the 157.84 fib 61.8% and the 157.67 NY low
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 47 · price 158.012
158.12–157.91 session range inside 158.19–157.67 swing range.
Late Asia session: soft Japan household spending and current account data lifted USDJPY back above 158.00 at Tokyo open, and it has since held a 157.91–158.12 session range. Lower highs from the 158.19 prior high and rising lows from Monday's 157.67 swing low are compressing price around the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 157.91, 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.07, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 session low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.85 prior lows
Close above the 158.07 lower highs and the 158.12 session high brings the 158.19 prior high into view
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Range, Asia rebound fading · RSI 43 · price 157.966
Lower high at 158.11 after Asia high 158.12; pullback holding 38.2% fib.
Weak Japan household spending and current account prints lifted the pair off the late-NY ny low at 157.67 to an asia high of 158.12. A second test at 158.11 was rejected, and price is now back under the 158.00 round number, holding the asia low at 157.92 near the 38.2% fib of that rebound, with EMA20 and EMA50 flat overhead.
Support: 157.92, 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.00, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 asia low exposes the 157.85 prior low near the 50–61.8% fib zone
Reclaim of 158.00 and a break of the 158.12 asia high negates the double top and puts the 158.19 prior high back in play
Loss of the rising support from the 157.67 ny low shifts the read to a full retrace of the Asia rebound
Waller at 09:00 UTC could reprice December hike odds ahead of London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC can materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Short-term drift lower inside a range · RSI 43 · price 157.948
Lower highs off the 158.12 Asia high; range 157.67–158.19.
The rebound from the late-NY 157.67 low, helped by weak Japan data (household spending −6.7%), topped at the 158.12 Asia high. Price has since printed Asia lower highs and slipped back to the 38.2% rebound fib near 157.95, below the 158.00 round number and both EMAs. The 157.91 session low has held so far.
Support: 157.91, 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.00, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.91 session low exposes the 157.85 prior lows, near the 50%–61.8% rebound fib
Loss of 157.85 prior lows reopens the 157.67 NY low
Recovery above the 158.00 round number and the Asia lower-highs line puts the 158.12 Asia high back in play, then the 158.19 NY high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.91–158.12 inside Monday's 157.67–158.19 span.
Monday's 19:30 UTC slide to the 157.67 day low came as US-Iran optimism and lower yields weighed on USD. Soft Japan data then lifted the pair into a 157.91–158.12 Asian range, and the 03:30 UTC dip to the asian low held near the 50% rebound fib. Price sits mid-range around 158.00, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 44 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 asian low exposes the 157.85 prior lows, then the 157.67 day low
Close above the 158.12 asian high opens the 158.19 NY high from Monday
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4.5h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
04:09 UTC
Sideways, slipping lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 157.957
Range 157.85–158.19 with lower highs under the asia high.
After Monday's late-NY drop to the 157.67 swing low on USD weakness, the pair recovered into the 158.00s as Japan data missed. Asia highs at 158.12 and 158.11 capped the bounce, and price has faded to the 38.2% fib near 157.95, below both EMAs, with the 157.85 double low the next floor.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 double low exposes the 157.67 swing low
Recovery above the 158.12 asia high reopens the 158.19 ny high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC can break the range either way
03:46 UTC
Intraday range, slipping lower late Asia · RSI 35 · price 157.918
Asian range 157.95–158.12 breaking lower; lower high under 158.19.
The yen softened after the weak Japan household spending print, but the bid stalled at the 158.12 asian high. Late Asia session bars have slipped through the 157.95 asian low, with RSI(14) near 35. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% of the recovery fib off the 157.67 late ny low, and the 157.85 swing low lines up with the 61.8%.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 157.95, 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.85 swing low (61.8% of the recovery fib) exposes the 157.67 late ny low
An M15 close back above the 157.95 asian low turns the break into a false break; 158.12 asian high and 158.19 ny high cap above
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5h) could reprice the dollar ahead of the move
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) is the main catalyst for a break of the 157.67–158.19 band
03:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing just under 158.00 · RSI 43 · price 157.994
Lower highs off the Asia high, higher lows holding above 157.97.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the 157.67 monday low to an asia high at 158.12 after Japan's household spending miss. Price has since printed lower highs and is slipping back under 158.00 and both EMAs, compressing toward the asia low at 157.97, with the 50% of the rebound near 157.90. RSI(14) is neutral at about 43 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 157.97, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.97 asia low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 157.86 rollover low
M15 close above the 158.12 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.19 ny high
Loss of 157.86 brings the 157.67 monday low back into view
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5.5h) and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Recovering off NY low, flattening · RSI 57 · price 158.044
Compressing 157.97–158.12 inside Asian range.
Asia has retraced the late-NY drop to the 157.67 NY low, with the weak Japan household spending print lifting the pair to a 158.12 Asian high. Price is now compressing between that high and the 157.97 swing low, holding near the 38.2% fib of the recovery, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.97, 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.12, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 asian high exposes the 158.19 ny high
Failure to hold the 157.97 swing low and the rising Asia trendline exposes the 157.85 london lows, then the 157.67 ny low
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC (~6h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Recovery from NY low, stalling · RSI 53 · price 158.023
Higher lows off 157.67, capped at Asian high.
Mid-Asia session: USDJPY has climbed back from the 157.667 NY low, extended by the miss in Japan household spending, but was rejected twice at the 158.12 Asian high and is compressing between that level and the 157.97 swing low. The pullback held above the 38.2% of the 157.67–158.12 recovery. Price sits just above the flat EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral at about 53 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 157.968, 157.859, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188, 158.368
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.123 asian high opens the 158.188 ny high, with the 158.368 prior high from yesterday's Asia session above that
Failure to hold the 157.968 swing low exposes the 157.859 asian low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the asian low shifts focus back to the 157.667 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift this read; US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
Higher lows since Monday's 157.67 low, compressing under the 158.12 Asia high.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows through the Asia session off the late-NY Monday low at 157.67, with the yen softer after Japan's household spending miss. Price is compressing on the rising trendline just under the 158.12 Asia high and holding the 158.00 round number, RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 158.00, 157.968, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.97 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 158.12 Asia high opens Monday's NY prior high at 158.19
Below the trendline, the recovery fib 50% near 157.90 sits ahead of the 157.67 Monday low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has recovered all of Monday's late-NY slide to the 157.667 Monday low. The yen softened in Asia after Japan household spending collapsed to -6.7% y/y. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing in the 157.859–158.123 Asian range, with lower highs under the Asia high meeting a rising support line off the Asia low and RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 157.968, 157.859, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.123 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.188 NY high in play
Failure to hold the 157.968 swing low breaks the rising support line and reopens the 157.859 Asia low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in Asia · RSI 62 · price 158.064
Asian session higher-low chain, capped below the 158.123 Asian high.
Asian session has fully reversed Monday's late-NY slide to the 157.667 NY low. Japan's household spending and current account misses lifted the pair back above 158.00. The Asian session pullback held a higher low at 157.968, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian move, and price is now coiling just under the 158.123 Asian high with RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 157.968, 157.859, 157.667
Resistance: 158.123, 158.188, 158.368
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.123 asian high opens the 158.188 ny high, then the 158.368 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.968 higher low breaks the Asian higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.859 asian low
A loss of the asian low puts the 157.667 ny low back in focus
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC during London hours could shift the read ahead of US CPI at 13:30 UTC
Higher-low chain off 157.668, Asian session capped at 158.121.
The late-NY flush below the 157.85 London lows to the 157.668 NY low failed and was fully reclaimed. The Japan data misses lifted the pair back above 158.00 in the Asia session, with higher lows holding on the rising trendline. Mid-Asia, price is consolidating between the 157.946 Asian low and the 158.121 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.965, 157.946, 157.668
Resistance: 158.121, 158.187, 158.365
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.121 Asian high opens the 158.187 NY high, then Monday's 158.365 prior high
Loss of the 157.965 swing low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain; the 157.946 Asian low sits near the 38.2% fib of the rebound
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11.5h) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 158.027
Higher lows off 157.67 NY low, capped at 158.12 Asian high.
Mid-Asia session: the late-NY drop to the 157.67 NY low came as Iran-deal hopes dragged oil and US yields. Price has since rebuilt through a chain of higher lows. Rejection at the 158.12 Asian high has left price consolidating near 158.00 above the 157.965 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.965, 157.86, 157.668
Resistance: 158.121, 158.187, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.965 swing low and the higher-lows line reopens the 157.86 Asian low
Loss of the 157.86 Asian low brings the 157.67 NY low back into view
M15 close above the 158.12 Asian high exposes the 158.19 NY high, then the 158.37 prior high from Monday's Asia session
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Recovery from NY low, stalling below 158.12 · RSI 55 · price 157.995
Higher lows through Asia since the 157.67 NY low; Asian push capped at 158.12 below the NY high.
USDJPY has rebuilt from the 157.67 NY low, set after the Iran-deal headlines pushed oil and US yields lower, into a higher-low chain through the Asia session. The push stalled at the 158.12 asian high, just short of the 158.19 ny high, and the rejection bar has dropped price back onto EMA20 near 158.00. Price is holding above the 157.95 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% level of the recovery fib. RSI(14) is near 55 and ATR(14) runs about 6.5 pips.
Support: 157.946, 157.862, 157.668
Resistance: 158.121, 158.187, 158.365
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.95 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 157.86 asian low
A close above the 158.12 asian high puts the 158.19 ny high and the 158.37 prior high back in play
A loss of the 157.84 recovery fib 61.8% shifts focus back to the 157.67 ny low
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs 158.37 → 158.19 → 158.12; higher low at 157.86 after the 157.67 false break.
Monday's late-NY flush to the 157.67 monday low ran through the 157.85 lows as oil and yields slid. The move reversed as a false break, and the early-Asia recovery from the 157.86 asia low stalled at the 158.12 asia high, with the latest bar a rejection back onto the flat EMA20/50 cluster near 157.97. The lower-highs sequence from the 158.37 monday high through the 158.19 ny high remains intact, with the 157.95 asia pivot (38.2% of the Asia leg fib) directly below.
Support: 157.946, 157.862, 157.668
Resistance: 158.121, 158.187, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.95 asia pivot puts the 157.86 asia low and the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib (~157.84) back in play
Failure to hold 157.86 reopens the 157.67 monday low
Close above the 158.12 asia high and the 158.19 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since 157.67 low, testing session high.
USD/JPY has climbed back from the 157.67 Monday low set late in NY. Asia is extending a higher-low chain, helped by soft Japanese household spending at 23:30 UTC. Price is pressing the 158.09 Asia session high, under Monday's 158.19 NY high, with RSI(14) near 68 and no extreme.
Support: 157.95, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.09, 158.19, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.09 session high exposes the 158.19 NY high, then the 158.37 Monday high
Loss of the 157.95 higher low and the rebound trendline breaks the higher-low chain, with the 157.86 rollover low next
Below 157.86, the 157.67 Monday low comes back into view
Waller at 09:00 UTC, and US CPI at 13:30 UTC later today, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since late-NY low, inside 157.67–158.39 day range.
The late-NY slide below the 157.85 London/NY floor to a 157.67 day low, as Iran de-escalation dragged yields lower, was reclaimed. Early Asia has built higher lows along rising support after soft Japanese spending data, back above 158.00 and capping at the 158.09 asia high, near the 78.6% fib of the 158.19–157.67 drop. RSI(14) near 60, ATR about 6 pips.
Support: 157.95, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.09, 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 ny high clears the fib and targets the 158.39 prior high from Monday's Asian session
Loss of the 157.95 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.86 rollover low
Retest of the 157.67 day low would revive the downside read from the false break
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the 157.67 NY low, now testing the session high.
Early Asia trade extends the climb from the 157.67 NY low along a rising trendline of higher lows, helped by Japan's household spending miss. Price is pressing the 158.09 session high, near the 78.6% fib of the NY drop from 158.19. RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.95, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.09, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the 158.19 NY high
Break below the 157.95 pullback low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.86 rollover low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through early Asia · RSI 70 · price 158.081
Higher-low chain off 157.67 false break, testing 78.6% of the NY drop.
The late-NY flush to the 157.67 ny low pierced Monday's 157.85 floor and reversed. Early Asia has since stepped up through the 157.86 rollover low and the 157.95 swing low, with price at the 78.6% fib of the 158.19–157.67 drop and RSI(14) near 70. The dollar stays soft on lower yields ahead of today's US CPI; the ny high at 158.19 is the next cap.
Support: 157.95, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.95 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 157.86 rollover low
M15 close above the 158.19 ny high reclaims Monday's NY range top, with Monday's asian high at 158.39 the next reference
Rejection at the 78.6% fib keeps the recovery inside the NY drop range
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.39; higher-low chain off the 157.67 day low.
Monday's London open broke below the Asian range and NY topped at the 158.19 NY high. Late NY then dropped to the 157.67 day low as USD gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and yields. Early Asia has retraced to the 61.8% fib at 157.99 along a recovery line from the low, with price pressed under the 158.03 late NY cap.
Support: 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.03, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.03 late NY cap clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path to the 158.19 NY high
Failure to hold the 157.86 rollover low breaks the recovery line and exposes the 157.67 day low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read