22:02 UTC
Sideways range after summer downtrend, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 158.755
156.08–159.03 range since late Sep, lower highs from July intact.
Two sharp legs lower from the July high at 163.99 left a lower-high sequence (163.99, 160.39, 159.03), and the pair has held a 156.08–159.03 range for roughly seven weeks since the late-September peak. EMA20 and EMA50 have flattened together near 157.98 with price above both and RSI at a mid-range 56.7. Strong NFP and this week's hot October CPI beat lifted the pair back toward the range top, which lines up with the 78.6% retracement of the September drop and sits in the zone where MOF intervention risk has capped rallies.
Support: 157.983, 156.94
Resistance: 159.032, 160.391, 163.985
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top would break the seven-week range and expose the sept high at 160.39, with the july high at 163.99 the next major pivot
- Rejection at 159.03 and a close back below the ema20 near 157.98 keeps the range read intact, with the 156.94 swing low next
- Loss of the rising lows line from the 152.89 September low, then a break of the 156.08 range low, would resume the lower-low sequence
- MOF verbal warnings near 159 and Japan Q3 GDP on Nov 15 could materially shift this read
- Fed speakers tonight and Thursday's jobless claims are near-term USD catalysts against the range top