22:02 UTC
Range-bound after September rally, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 157.936
Six-week 156.08–159.03 range with slightly lower highs and rising lows.
USDJPY rallied about 615 pips from the early-September low at 152.89 to the 159.03 range high in late September, then went sideways for six weeks. The October low at 156.08 held above the 50% retracement of that rally, and lows have risen since. Friday's strong NFP lifted the pair off the 157.25 weekly low, but supply has capped rallies below the nov high at 158.77 and the 158.68 200-dma. Price sits on a flat EMA20 with RSI near 50, while hawkish BoJ minutes and the 4.6% wage print keep a firmer yen as a counterweight.
Support: 157.25, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 158.77, 159.03
What it said to watch
- US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the nov high at 158.77 and the range high at 159.03 in focus
- D1 close above 159.03 range high breaks the six-week range top and the lower-highs trendline
- Daily close below the 157.25 weekly low and the 156.96 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline
- Loss of the 156.08 oct low exposes the 50% retracement of the Sep rally near 155.96
- Intervention rhetoric near 159.00 could cap any upside break attempt