USDJPY has held a 157.52–158.51 range all week. The week low printed in Thursday's NY session as the Iran de-escalation headline pulled US yields back. That dip was fully retraced by Friday's NY open as JGB yields fell harder than global peers, with the rebound printing higher lows into the 158.43 friday high. Sunday's open has held above EMA(20) near 158.27 with a shallow 158.13 asian low, while RSI(14) sits mid-50s and ATR has compressed to about 12 pips, consistent with consolidation under the week high.
Support: 158.13, 158.05, 157.52
Resistance: 158.43, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.13 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.05 friday dip, then the 61.8% retrace of the Thu–Fri rebound near 157.86
H1 close above the 158.51 week high ends the range read; failure there keeps the range top intact
US-Japan officials' meeting at the IMF and any MoF FX rhetoric could trigger a sharp drop toward the 157.52 week low
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC ahead of Wed US CPI could shift the read
157.52–158.51 range; higher lows under flat lower highs.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.52–158.51 band since Tuesday. The week high printed in Wednesday's Asia session, and the 157.52 week low came on Thursday's NY drop, when Trump's Iran comments pulled US yields lower and price briefly broke the prior 157.58 low before snapping back. Friday's London-into-NY grind, driven by sharper JGB yield declines, retraced that dip, and price is holding above EMA(20) near 158.25 into Monday's open with RSI(14) mid-range at 55. Supply has capped the 158.43 friday high, leaving a lower-highs line overhead against a rising higher-lows line from the week low.
Support: 158.25, 158.05, 157.52
Resistance: 158.43, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.51 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
H1 close below the higher-lows line (~158.15) and the 158.05 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 157.86
Repeated failure at the 158.43 friday high keeps the range read intact
US-Japan sideline talks at the IMF meetings this week; any FX-concern language could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wednesday's US CPI add headline risk
21:04 UTC
Range-bound, mild recovery into Friday close · RSI 54 · price 158.289
157.52–158.51 range with lower highs since Wednesday.
USD/JPY chopped inside a 157.52–158.51 band from Tuesday to Friday. The week high came in Wednesday's Asia session, and each attempt since has printed a lower high along the range top. Thursday's NY-hours drop to the 157.52 week low followed Trump ruling out Iran strikes, but it failed to hold as a break. Friday's recovery, driven by sharper JGB yield declines, lifted price back above EMA(20) and up to the 158.43 Friday high, while RSI(14) near 54 reflects mid-range momentum.
Support: 158.05, 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.43, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.51 week high breaks the range top and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.05 swing low exposes the 157.76 Friday low; the 50% retracement of the Thu–Fri rally sits near 157.97
A move back through the 157.52 week low would turn Thursday's false break into a range break lower
US-Japan officials' talks on the IMF sidelines or MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the main scheduled risk for the range