USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum fading after open spike · RSI 46 · price 158.204
Range 158.14–158.43 since Friday London; lower high at Sunday open.
Early Asia session after a small weekend gap down from Friday's 158.29 close. The pair ran from the 158.14 open low to a 158.40 session high, stalled just under the 158.43 Friday high and slid back to 158.20. The range holds after Friday's yen weakness on the sharper JGB yield drop.
Support: 158.14, 158.05
Resistance: 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 friday high breaks the range top and the run of lower highs
Loss of the 158.14 open low exposes the 158.05 london low from Friday
Any MoF rhetoric or US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings could reprice yen pairs sharply
Open swing fib: price is holding near the 78.6% retracement of the 158.14–158.40 move; a break back through 158.14 negates that swing
23:32 UTC
Range-bound, rotating lower off the cap · RSI 47 · price 158.233
158.13–158.43 range; lower high at 158.40 after the Sunday open.
Sunday's open gapped from the 158.29 fri close down to a 158.13 gap low. The gap filled within the hour, but the move stalled at a 158.40 session high, just under the 158.43 friday high where supply capped NY twice after Friday's JGB-led yen weakness. Price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib of the open swing near 158.23, holding just above the 158.19 session low. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and the Asia session range is still in development.
Support: 158.19, 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 friday high breaks the range cap; failure to reclaim the 158.29 fri close keeps the lower high at the 158.40 session high in force
Loss of the 158.19 session low exposes the 158.13 gap low, and a break there opens the 158.05 london low
Any US-Japan FX language from the IMF-sideline meetings could jolt the yen in thin early-week liquidity
Early-Asia range 158.13–158.40, capped under the 158.43 Friday high.
The weekly open gapped marginally lower to the 158.13 gap low and recovered. The early-Asia spike to a 158.40 session high was then rejected beneath the 158.43 Friday high, leaving price sitting on EMA20 near 158.28 with RSI(14) neutral at 50. Friday's yen underperformance on falling JGB yields carried the pair here, but the 158.40–158.43 cap has now held repeatedly, and price is holding just above the 158.25 intraday low and the 50% retrace of the Monday swing.
Support: 158.25, 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 Friday high breaks the cap and opens the path to the 158.50–158.54 range top
Failure to hold the 158.25 intraday low exposes the 158.13 gap low, then Friday's 158.05 london low
Any US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings or MoF rhetoric could abruptly shift this read
Tokyo open liquidity could expand the range beyond current 7-pip ATR
23:02 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after flat weekend open · RSI 54 · price 158.312
158.13–158.43 range; early-Asia lower high at 158.40 below Friday high.
The weekend open dipped to a 158.13 gap low before buyers stepped back in to reclaim Friday's 158.29 close. A thin early Asia session push to 158.40 was rejected just below the 158.43 Friday high, leaving price near the 61.8% retrace of the Friday high to gap low fib with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.40, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 Friday high breaks the range and opens the 158.50 round number
Loss of the 158.13 gap low exposes Friday's 158.05 London low
Second rejection at the 158.40 Asia high keeps the range read intact
US-Japan IMF sideline headlines or MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read as Tokyo liquidity arrives
22:47 UTC
Mild uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 158.38
Friday 158.05–158.43 range; Monday open dip bought, retesting highs.
Thin early Asia session on Monday. The opening dip to the 158.13 monday low was retraced within a bar, and price is back at the 158.40–158.43 friday high zone, which capped Friday's NY session twice; RSI(14) sits near 59. Friday's rally fib from the 157.76 asia low puts the 38.2% retracement near 158.17. The Friday leg was driven by yen underperformance on falling JGB yields and firmer US inflation expectations.
Support: 158.13, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.43 friday high opens the 158.50 round number, the digest's cited range top
A move back below the 158.13 monday low exposes the 158.05 swing low from Friday London; below that, the 157.76 asia low comes into view
Any US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings, or MoF rhetoric, could materially shift this read, especially in thin Asia liquidity
22:32 UTC
Sideways after Friday rally, early-week range · RSI 56 · price 158.319
Sunday open swept Friday's late low and recovered; holding inside Friday's 158.05–158.43 band.
Thin Sunday open gapped about 3 pips lower and swept Friday's late low to a 158.13 sunday low. Price then recovered to 158.32, just under the 158.33 sunday high. The dip held above the 38.2% of the rally fib from Friday's 157.76 Asian low. That rally came on Friday's yen underperformance as JGB yields fell, and price is still boxed between 158.05 and the 158.43 friday high, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 158.25, 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.33 sunday high puts the 158.43 friday high back in play, with the 158.50 range top flagged in the digest above
Failure to hold the 158.25 pullback low reopens the 158.13 sunday low; below that, the london low at 158.05 sits near the rally fib 50% at 158.09
Tokyo open liquidity and any MoF or US-Japan FX rhetoric around the IMF meetings could materially shift this read
Range 158.13–158.43; weekly-open dip below the late-NY low reclaimed.
The thin weekly open dipped to the 158.13 sunday low, briefly breaking Friday's late-NY low at 158.16 near the 38.2% fib of the 157.76–158.43 leg, then reclaimed it inside 15 minutes. Price is at 158.29, mid-range in early Asia. It sits below a lower-highs line from the 158.43 friday high, with the 158.33 sunday high the first cap. The macro backdrop is a firm USD after Friday's yen underperformance on lower JGB yields.
Support: 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.33 sunday high and the lower-highs line puts the 158.43 friday high back in play; the 158.50 round number above marks the yen-pair range top
Failure to hold the 158.13 sunday low reopens the 158.05 london low and the 50% fib near 158.09
Any MoF or US-Japan FX rhetoric around the IMF meetings could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC
Lower highs off 158.43 Friday high; thin Sunday dip to 158.13 reclaimed.
Friday's leg from the 157.76 Asia low topped at the 158.43 Friday high in NY hours, with lower highs into the close as JGB-driven yen softness faded. The thin Sunday open dipped to the 158.13 Sunday low, briefly under Friday's 158.16 late low, then snapped back to the 158.25 area. Price is pinned just below EMA20 and the 23.6% level of the Asia-NY leg fib, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.13 Sunday low exposes the 158.05 London dip and the 50% fib near 158.09
Close above the 158.33 Sunday high reopens the 158.43 Friday high, with the 158.50 range top cited in the digest beyond it
US-Japan FX language at the IMF meetings or MoF rhetoric could jolt the pair while early Asia session liquidity is thin
21:32 UTC
Sideways below Friday high, lower highs in NY · RSI 54 · price 158.298
Friday rally capped at 158.43, NY lower highs; weekly-open gap swept Friday low and recovered.
Friday's rally from 157.76 stalled at a 158.43 session high, and NY hours printed lower highs into the close as the late ny low formed at 158.21. The weekly open gapped lower and swept the Friday low to a 158.13 sunday low, near the 38.2% fib of the Friday rally, before recovering to 158.30 in thin early Asia session trade. The JGB-led yen softness from Friday is still the backdrop.
Support: 158.21, 158.13, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.33 range top puts the 158.43 session high back in play
Holding the 158.21 late ny low keeps the gap recovery intact; loss of the 158.13 sunday low re-exposes the 158.05 london low and the 50% fib near 158.09
158.50 round number marks the base of the 158.50–159 zone where MoF rhetoric risk rises
US-Japan talks at the IMF meetings could jolt yen pairs with little warning
Weekly-open slip below Friday's late range floor, lower highs since 158.43.
The week opened with a small gap under the 158.29 Friday close. Price then slid through the 158.16 prior low and now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of Friday's 157.76–158.43 rally, a move that came on yen underperformance as JGB yields fell. RSI(14) is near 37, and the London swing low at 158.05 and the 158.00 round number sit just below.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.76
Resistance: 158.16, 158.29, 158.43
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 158.16 prior low and a fill of the gap to the 158.29 Friday close would negate the early-week break
Failure to hold the 158.05 swing low and the 158.00 round number would expose Friday's 157.76 Asia low
Any US-Japan FX rhetoric around the IMF meetings could shift this read sharply; the 158.43 Friday high caps the range overhead
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the first scheduled USD risk after the Asia session
158.16–158.43 range since London; Asian range broken higher.
Friday's soft yen, on sharper JGB yield declines, broke USDJPY out of the 157.76–158.14 Asian range late in Asia. London and NY were both capped at the 158.43 session high. The late-NY dip found buyers at the 158.16 NY low, near 38.2% of the day's rally fib, and price closed mid-range at 158.29 with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 158.16, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 session high exposes the 158.50 round number, the top of the cited 157.50–158.50 band
Failure to hold the 158.16 NY low and 38.2% rally fib opens the 158.05 London low
Monday Asia open gap risk: any MoF rhetoric or US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings could materially shift this read