USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 9 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, drifting lower into close · RSI 47 · price 158.258
Lower highs off 158.428, tight 158.16–158.29 coil.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.757 Asian low to a 158.428 session high during NY hours as softer JGB yields weighed on the yen. It has since printed lower highs and is coiling between the 158.156 NY low and the 158.29 minor high into the Friday close. The NY low sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia low–high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 158.156, 158.048
Resistance: 158.292, 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.156 NY low and 38.2% fib exposes the 158.048 london low
Close above the 158.29 minor high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 158.428 session high and 158.50 range top next
Weekend gap risk from US-Japan FX talk around the IMF meetings and oil headlines could reset this read at the open
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, drifting lower late NY · RSI 48 · price 158.254
Day-high rejection, compressing in 158.16–158.31 band.
The Asian range of 157.76–158.14 broke higher into London as the yen underperformed on falling JGB yields. The day high at 158.43 was rejected twice, in London and again in NY. Late NY has faded into a tight 158.16–158.31 band near the 50% retrace of the london-ny leg (158.05–158.43), with RSI(14) flat at about 48 and price just under both EMAs into the weekend close.
Support: 158.156, 158.048
Resistance: 158.31, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.31 prior shelf revives a retest of the 158.43 day high
Loss of the 158.16 ny low exposes the 61.8% retrace and the 158.05 london low
Weekend headlines on Japan-US FX talks at the IMF meetings or MoF rhetoric could gap the pair at the open
Trump's late-Friday Russia diesel headline carries weekend oil-gap risk for the USD leg
20:16 UTC
Range, drifting lower off day high · RSI 41 · price 158.241
USDJPY was rejected twice at the 158.42–158.43 day high, at the London open and again in NY hours, as the yen sold off on sharper JGB yield declines. It has since printed a series of lower highs down to 158.29. Price is now compressing near the 50% fib of the 158.05–158.43 London low-to-day-high leg into the Friday close. The 18:45 UTC swing low at 158.16 is the nearest floor, with ATR(14) contracting to under 5 pips.
Support: 158.156, 158.048
Resistance: 158.288, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.29 lower high breaks the descending-highs trendline and puts the 158.43 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 158.16 swing low exposes the 158.05 london low, the base of the fib leg
Weekend gap risk on Trump's Russia diesel claim and oil headlines
US-Japan officials' meeting at the IMF and any MoF FX rhetoric near 158.25 could reprice the open
Double cap at 158.43 day high, lower highs into tight late-NY range.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range high near 158.14 before London on yen softness from sliding JGB yields. The rally was rejected twice at the 158.43 day high, in London and again in NY. Price has since faded to a 158.16 NY low near the 38.2% fib and is compressing below the 158.29 range top and EMA20 into the Friday close, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 158.156, 158.048
Resistance: 158.288, 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 ny low exposes the 158.05 london low and the 50% fib near 158.09
Break of the 158.29 range top reopens the 158.43 day high, with the 158.50 round number above
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend US-Japan talk at the IMF meetings or MoF rhetoric could gap the open
Broad yen weakness on falling JGB yields carried USD/JPY from the 157.757 Asian low to a 158.428 session high in NY, rejected just above the 158.418 London high. Late NY has faded into lower highs, with the 18:45 UTC dip to the 158.156 late-NY low holding near the 38.2% retracement. RSI(14) sits near 41 with price under both EMAs into the Friday close.
Support: 158.156, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.288, 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.156 late-NY low exposes the 158.048 London low and the 50% retracement near 158.09
Recovery above the 158.288 lower high reopens the 158.428 session high; a break there opens the path to the 158.50 round number, where intervention sensitivity is cited
US–Japan talks on the IMF sidelines next week carry weekend gap risk for the open
Broad yen softness on falling JGB yields carried the pair from the 157.76 asia low to a 158.43 session high, but supply capped 158.42–158.43 twice, once in London and again in early NY. Price has since slipped in lower highs and found demand at the 158.16 ny low, near the 38.2% fib. It now sits mid-range late in the NY session, just under the 158.28 lower high, with ATR under 5 pips.
Support: 158.16, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.28, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 lower high breaks the post-NY sequence of lower highs and puts the 158.43 session high back in play
Failure at the 158.16 ny low exposes the 158.05 london low and the 50–61.8% fib zone
A clear break above the 158.43 session high runs into the 158.50 psych level and the 200-day SMA area flagged for intervention-risk rhetoric
Weekend US–Japan talks at the IMF meetings carry gap risk for the Monday open; a 157.76 asia low retest is in play on any official FX pushback
Yen weakness on sliding JGB yields lifted USDJPY out of the Asian range to a day high of 158.428 in early NY. Rejection there has produced a chain of lower highs back to 158.24. The 18:45 UTC swing low at 158.156 held near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-high leg, and price is now pressing the descending trendline from 158.416 into the Friday close.
Support: 158.156, 158.048
Resistance: 158.288, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.288 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence and reopens the 158.428 day high
Failure to hold the 158.156 swing low exposes the 158.048 london low and the 50% fib near 158.09
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; US-Japan IMF sideline talks over the weekend carry intervention-rhetoric gap risk
Lower highs and lower lows off 158.43 session high through NY hours.
USD/JPY broke out of the Asian range during London as JGB yields fell harder than global peers. It then stalled twice at the 158.42–158.43 session high, forming an unconfirmed double top. NY hours have printed a lower-high, lower-low chain, and price is now testing the 158.16 swing low near the 38.2% fib, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) around 33.
Support: 158.16, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.29, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.05 london low, the double top neckline
A break below 158.05 confirms the double top and puts the 157.76 asian low back in view
Recovery above the 158.29 lower high and trendline resistance negates the late-NY fade
Session high 158.43 and the 158.50 round number sit just under the zone where intervention chatter has capped the pair
Weekend headline risk from possible US-Japan talks on the IMF sidelines; any FX-concern signal could gap the yen stronger at the open
London broke the Asian high at 158.14 as JGB-led yen weakness lifted the pair. NY then saw rejection at the 158.43 session high, a second test of the London peak. A lower-high sequence has since pushed price back toward the 158.20 range floor late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.14, 158.05
Resistance: 158.29, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 range floor opens the Asian high at 158.14, then the 158.05 london dip
Close above the 158.29 lower high breaks the descending trendline and returns focus to the 158.43 session high
158.50 psych sits near the intervention-sensitive zone; US-Japan IMF-sideline rhetoric could hit the pair abruptly
Late-Friday thin liquidity; a weekend gap risk around IMF headlines
Twin highs at 158.42-158.43, lower highs since NY session top.
USDJPY's day leg ran from the 157.76 Asia low, broke the Asian range ahead of the London open and topped twice at the 158.42-158.43 day high, once in London and once in NY, as falling JGB yields softened the yen. Since the NY rejection, price has slipped in lower highs to a 158.21 pullback low, holding near the shallow end of the day-leg fib. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) is under 5 pips as Friday trade thins after London close.
Support: 158.21, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.21 pullback low confirms the twin top and exposes the 158.05 london low
Recovery through the 158.43 day high reopens the 158.50 round number, where intervention-risk rhetoric has capped upside
US-Japan official contact at next week's IMF meetings carries weekend gap risk for the yen
Twin session highs at 158.42-158.43, lower highs since NY peak, testing midday low.
Yen softness as JGB yields fell carried USD/JPY through the Asian range high in London, but twin session highs at 158.42-158.43 capped NY and a lower-highs sequence has followed. Late NY, price is pressing the 158.20 midday low, just above the fib 38.2 of the day's upswing at 158.17, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.17, 158.05
Resistance: 158.35, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 midday low exposes the fib 38.2 at 158.17 and the 158.05 london low
Close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.43 session high back in play
Acceptance above 158.43 opens the 158.50 round number, where intervention chatter has capped
US-Japan rhetoric around the weekend IMF meetings is a gap risk for the Asia open; thin late-Friday liquidity
London broke the Asian range high; double top at session high, lower highs through late NY.
London broke the Asian range high at 158.14 as the yen underperformed on falling JGB yields. The 158.42–158.43 session high capped twice, and late NY is printing lower highs back to 158.24, the 50% fib of the London-low rally. RSI(14) is near 37 with price under both EMAs, and the 158.20 NY low is the nearest floor.
Support: 158.20, 158.14, 158.05
Resistance: 158.35, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 NY low exposes the 158.14 Asia high, then the 158.05 London low
M15 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 158.43 session high and 158.50 psych above
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; any US-Japan FX rhetoric around next week's IMF meetings is gap risk for the open
Double top at 158.42-158.43 with lower highs since; price late NY just above the 158.20 range floor.
The Asia dip to 157.76 on softer yields reversed. London broke the Asian high and NY retested the 158.42-158.43 session high but stalled, leaving a double top with lower highs on the trendline since. Late NY, price is drifting near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg, just above the 158.24 swing low and 158.20 range floor, with RSI(14) at ~44.
Support: 158.24, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.35, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 range floor confirms the double top and exposes the 158.05 dip low
Close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; a clear of the 158.43 session high brings 158.50 psych into play, which the digest flags as intervention-sensitive
Thin Friday liquidity plus weekend US-Japan IMF / MoF headline risk could gap this read at the open
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, easing lower late NY · RSI 44 · price 158.276
Higher lows into twin highs near 158.42, rising trendline broken.
Higher lows at 157.76, the 158.05 london low and the 158.20 ny low carried price up to twin highs at 158.42–158.43. The day high has capped twice, and the late-NY drift has slipped below the rising trendline and fib 61.8 (158.29) of the NY swing, leaving an unconfirmed double top. Yen softness kept dips shallow, while the 158.50 cap overhead is where intervention sensitivity sits. RSI 44, ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 158.236, 158.202, 158.048
Resistance: 158.288, 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 ny low confirms the double top and exposes the 158.05 london low
Reclaim of the 158.43 day high negates the rejection read and brings the 158.50 cap into view
Hold of the 158.24 late ny low keeps price inside the 158.20–158.43 box
US-Japan IMF-sidelines or MoF FX headlines could move price sharply in thin late-Friday trade
Range 158.20–158.43 since London morning, lower highs after NY top.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.76 Asian low through London as the yen underperformed into the weekend. Supply capped the London and NY highs at the 158.42–158.43 session high, just under the 158.50 round number flagged for intervention risk, and the 158.05 London low has held since. Late in the NY session price is drifting to 158.25, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 39, and pressing the 158.20 range floor.
Support: 158.20, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 range floor exposes the 158.05 London low and the 38.2% retracement of the asian low–session high fib near 158.17
Reclaim of the 158.43 session high brings the 158.50 round number into view, a zone where intervention sensitivity has slowed gains
Weekend headlines from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting or MoF verbal intervention could reopen the asian low at 157.76
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves around the range floor
158.20–158.43 range above the broken Asian range high.
The late-Asia breakout above the 158.14 Asian range high carried into London. Supply then capped the 158.42–158.43 session high twice, once in London and again in NY, holding price in a 158.20–158.43 range just under the 158.50 intervention zone as the yen underperformed into the weekend. Late in the NY session, price is sitting on the 158.29 NY low and pinned at EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 158.29, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.43 session high reopens the 158.50 intervention zone, where sensitivity to official headlines rises.
Failure to hold the 158.29 NY low exposes the 158.20 range floor. A break there would put the twin session-high rejection in play toward the 158.05 London low, near the 61.8% fib.
MoF verbal intervention or US-Japan IMF-sidelines headlines could spike the yen regardless of structure.
Thinning liquidity after London close into the Friday close may exaggerate moves at either range edge.
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling under session high · RSI 53 · price 158.323
Tight late-NY range 158.29–158.43 after a London breakout above the Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 158.14 and extended to 158.42 as the yen underperformed into the weekend. NY was rejected twice at the 158.43 ny high, and price has slipped under the intraday trendline from the Asian low. Late-NY trade is a tight 158.29–158.43 consolidation, RSI(14) ~53, ATR ~6 pips, with the 158.50 round number and intervention risk overhead.
Support: 158.29, 158.20, 158.14
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.29 ny low confirms a lower-low inside the NY range
Loss of the 158.20 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asian low–NY high leg near 158.17, then the 158.14 asian high
A close above the 158.43 ny high opens the 158.50 round number, where intervention sensitivity has capped gains
Weekend headlines from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting could gap price at the Asia session open
Asian range broken higher, compressing 158.29–158.43 late NY.
Pre-London buying broke the Asian range at the 158.12 Asian high as the yen underperformed into the weekend. London's 158.42 high and NY's 158.43 session high both drew rejection, and demand has held the 158.29 ny swing low, leaving price flat at EMA20 late in NY with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 158.29, 158.20, 158.12
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.20 pivot low would form a double top with the session high and expose the 158.12 Asian high
Close above the 158.43 session high opens the 158.50 cap zone, where intervention sensitivity rises
US-Japan IMF-sidelines headlines or MoF comments over the weekend could gap price away from this range
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 55 · price 158.332
Higher lows from Asian low; flat cap at 158.42-158.43.
Higher lows have built from the 157.76 Asian low. London cleared the 158.14 Asian range high as the yen underperformed into the weekend, and the brief 14:00 UTC dip on the UoM miss was absorbed. In NY, price has been rejected three times under the 158.43 session high and is now sitting on rising support near the 158.32 ny swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at ~55 and ATR ~7 pips.
Support: 158.32, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.32 ny swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 158.20 range floor
M15 close above the 158.43 session high exposes the 158.50 round number, an intervention-sensitive area
Loss of the 158.05 swing low puts the London leg below the 50% fib of the Asia low-high move
MoF verbal intervention or US-Japan IMF-sidelines headlines could jolt the yen and override this read
Thin liquidity after London close could leave the 158.20-158.43 band unresolved into the weekend
Higher lows from London low, double test of 158.42-158.43.
USDJPY has extended its rally from yesterday's 157.52 Iran-headline low. Early London broke above the Asian range high near 158.14, and NY is now retesting the 158.42-158.43 session high as the yen underperforms into the weekend. Higher lows at the 158.05 London low, the 158.20 higher low and the 158.32 swing low keep the micro-structure rising, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched.
Support: 158.32, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 session high opens the 158.50 round number, an area where intervention sensitivity is flagged
Failure to hold the 158.32 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
A break of the 158.20 higher low and then the 158.05 London low would turn the intraday structure to lower lows
MoF verbal intervention or US-Japan IMF-meeting headlines could spike the yen in thin late-Friday trade
Rally fib 38.2% near 158.08 sits close to the London low as deeper support
Higher lows (158.05, 158.20, 158.29) under a flat 158.42-158.43 session high.
Price broke above the 157.76-158.14 Asian range late in Asia. Since then the 158.42-158.43 session high has capped twice, at London open and again at 15:00 UTC, while dips held the london low at 158.05, a swing low at 158.20 and a higher low at 158.29 after the UoM sentiment miss. Into the London-NY transition, price is easing off the second rejection, with the move retracing toward the 38.2% fib of the 158.05-158.43 leg.
Support: 158.286, 158.202, 158.048
Resistance: 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 session high exposes the 158.50 psych level, where the yen digest flags intervention sensitivity
Failure to hold the 158.29 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 158.20 swing low (61.8% fib zone) in focus
Loss of the 158.05 london low would reopen the Asian range
Weekend headlines from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting could materially shift this read at the reopen
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 60 · price 158.36
Higher-low chain from the 157.76 Asian low; double test of 158.43 session high.
Higher lows since the 157.76 Asian low carried price through the London high at 158.42. The UoM sentiment miss at 14:00 UTC only dipped it to the 158.29 NY low. The 15:00 UTC bar was rejected at a 158.43 session high, just under the 158.50 range cap where the yen digest flags intervention sensitivity; RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR(14) about 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.286, 158.20, 158.048
Resistance: 158.428, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 session high puts the 158.50 range cap in play
Break of the 158.29 ny low and the rising trendline turns the session-high rejection into a double test failure
Loss of the 158.20 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; 158.05 london low and the 50% fib near 158.09 sit below
MoF/Katayama FX language ahead of the US-Japan IMF meeting could jolt the pair from the range cap
London close approaching; late-NY liquidity thins into the weekend
USD/JPY printed a marginal new session high at 158.43 in NY, edging past the London high as the yen extends Friday's underperformance on softer JGB yields. Higher lows at the 158.05 london low, the 158.20 swing low and the 158.29 ny low hold the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 63 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.29, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 range cap breaks the 157.50–158.50 box. This is an intervention-sensitive zone, so the risk of rejection there is elevated
Loss of the 158.29 ny low and the rising trendline flattens the intraday higher-low chain, exposing the 158.20 swing low
Close below the 158.05 london low, near the fib 61.8% of the Asia-low rally, unwinds the London-NY advance
MoF verbal-intervention language or US-Japan IMF-meeting headlines could jolt the yen and override intraday structure
14:47 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 64 · price 158.381
Higher lows since the Asian low, capped near 158.40–158.42.
The recovery leg from Thursday's 157.52 low has printed higher lows at 157.76 in Asia, 158.05 (the London low) and 158.20 (the swing low). The NY session is now retesting the 158.42 London high, and the UoM release at 14:00 UTC produced only a brief dip to 158.29. The yen stays soft on yield gaps, but intervention sensitivity keeps the 158.50 range cap in focus; RSI(14) is in the mid-60s and not stretched.
Support: 158.29, 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 london high opens a test of the 158.50 range cap
Break of the 158.20 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the chain; the 158.05 london low is next below
Losing the 158.29 uom dip would show the NY retest failing
MoF or verbal-intervention headlines near 158.50, ahead of next week's US-Japan IMF meeting, could abruptly reverse this read
Higher lows since London open, NY capped under the London high.
London broke the Asian range high near 158.14 and printed a 158.418 london high. The pullback then held 158.048, the london low, and higher lows followed at 158.202 and 158.286 into early NY. NY stalled at 158.40, just under the London high, with the yen soft on the bond-sell-off pause and the 158.50 range cap still in view.
Support: 158.202, 158.048
Resistance: 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.418 london high puts the 158.50 range cap in play, where intervention-rhetoric risk is concentrated
Break of the 158.202 swing low and the higher-low trendline would mark a lower low
Loss of the 158.048 london low returns price into the Asian range
UoM 1-yr inflation expectations (prior 4.6%) and any US-Japan FX headlines could shift yields and this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under London high · RSI 56 · price 158.345
Higher lows from 157.52; NY capped in a 158.20–158.42 band.
Higher lows run from Thursday's 157.52 dip through 157.76 in Asia, the 158.05 London low and the 158.20 higher low early in NY. London broke above the Asian range. NY probed 158.40 but stalled just shy of the 158.42 London high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and soft JPY ahead of possible US-Japan IMF talks keeping the grind intact.
Support: 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 London high exposes the 158.50 round number, where intervention caution has capped the range
Break below the 158.20 higher low and the higher-low trendline ends the HL chain and reopens the 158.05 London low
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) have produced no follow-through yet; a hot 1-yr read could firm yields and extend the range top test
Any MoF/US Treasury FX language around the IMF meetings could abruptly reverse the read
14:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 56 · price 158.351
Higher lows from 157.757; highs capped 158.40–158.42.
The Asian range broke higher at 05:45 UTC into a 158.418 session high at the London open. The pullback held at the 158.048 london low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the rising-lows move, and the NY session has pushed back to 158.40, just shy of that high, as the yen keeps bleeding into the IMF-sidelines meeting. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and the 158.20 swing low sits on the rising-lows line.
Support: 158.20, 158.048
Resistance: 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations print on the current 14:00 UTC bar and can quickly exceed the ~6-pip ATR
M15 close above the 158.418 session high exposes the 158.50 range top, where intervention-rhetoric risk caps the topside
Failure to hold the 158.20 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and opens the 158.048 london low / 50% fib zone
Repeated rejection at 158.40–158.42 would turn the session into a 158.20–158.42 range
Higher lows since 08:45 UTC pullback, pressing London high.
London cleared the Asian range and set a 158.418 session high, then dropped 37 pips to a 158.048 pullback low. Higher lows near 158.20 have price back near 158.36 in the first hour of NY, above the 158.14 Asian high, as falling JGB yields keep the yen soft despite a weaker USD tone. The 158.50 range top, where intervention risk is flagged, sits overhead.
Support: 158.20, 158.14, 158.05
Resistance: 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.418 London high opens a test of the 158.50 range top, an area to watch for rejection on intervention rhetoric
Break of the 158.20 higher low and the rising support line puts the 158.14 Asian high and 158.05 pullback low back in play
13:32 UTC
Recovering from the 157.52 dip, intraday higher lows · RSI 55 · price 158.313
Higher lows below the 158.418 london high, compressing 158.20–158.34 into early NY.
The yen softened again overnight, and the climb off the 157.757 asia low ran into a London-open rejection at the 158.418 london high, then dipped to 158.048 (london low). Higher lows have held along rising support since then. Price is now coiling between the 158.20 range low and the 158.34 range top in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 158.20, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.344, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 158.20–158.34 compression either way
An M15 close above the 158.418 london high puts the 158.50 range edge in play, where intervention rhetoric risk is elevated
A loss of the 158.20 range low and rising support exposes the 158.048 london low
US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings remains a yen-positive tail risk
London open pushed USDJPY above the Asian range to a 158.418 London high, then a sharp rejection took it to the 158.048 swing low near the 61.8% fib. Since then it has compressed between the 158.20 range low and the 158.333 range top into NY, with higher lows off the 157.757 Asia low intact as softer yields keep the yen heavy.
Support: 158.20, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.333, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 158.20–158.33 range
A close above the 158.418 London high opens the 158.50 range edge, where intervention sensitivity rises
Failure to hold the 158.20 range low exposes the 158.048 swing low and 61.8% fib
Loss of the 157.757 Asia low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
13:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, now stalling · RSI 54 · price 158.282
Tight 158.20–158.33 box below the London high, higher lows intact.
London broke the Asian range high near 158.14 and ran to the 158.42 London high. The move then flushed to a 158.05 pullback low, which held between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the rally off the 157.76 Asian low. Since 09:45 UTC price has compressed in a 158.20–158.33 box into the NY open, with the yen soft on falling JGB yields; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 158.20, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.33, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, within the hour, could break the 158.20 range low or 158.33 range top
M15 close above the 158.42 London high exposes the 158.50 range edge, where intervention and verbal-risk sensitivity rises
A close below the 158.20 range low puts the 158.05 pullback low and the rising lows trendline back in focus
Failure to hold 158.05 negates the London breakout and reopens the 157.76 Asian low
12:47 UTC
Recovering from yesterday's drop, now flat · RSI 53 · price 158.248
Higher low above Asian range, tight range below session high.
Yesterday's Iran-headline drop to 157.515 has been retraced. London broke above the Asian range (asian low 157.757, top near 158.14) and cleared yesterday's 158.365 high. It then printed a rejection at the 158.418 session high and pulled back to the 158.048 london low, near the 61.8% fib. Since then price has been compressed between the 158.20 range low, which sits on rising support, and the 158.333 range top into the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 6 pips, with the 200-day near 158.50 overhead.
Support: 158.20, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.333, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 158.20–158.33 range either way
M15 close above the 158.333 range top reopens the 158.418 session high and the 158.50 200-day cap
M15 close below the 158.20 range low and rising support exposes the 158.048 london low
Any US-Japan FX or intervention rhetoric near 158.50 could trigger an outsized drop toward the asian low
London broke the Asian range high, then compressed in a 158.20–158.33 range.
Yesterday's Iran-headline drop to 157.52 has fully retraced. London broke the Asian range high near 158.14 and ran to a 158.42 session high, then pulled back to a 158.05 london low near the 50–61.8% of the asia-london leg fib. Since then price has compressed between the 158.20 range floor and the 158.33 range top into the NY open, with RSI neutral and ATR near 6–7 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~1.5h) could break the 158.20–158.33 range either way
M15 close below the 158.20 range floor exposes the 158.05 london low and the rising lows line from the asia low
Close above the 158.33 range top puts the 158.42 session high and the 158.50 cap back in play
Any US-Japan FX rhetoric ahead of the IMF talks could trigger an outsized yen move
Tight 158.21–158.33 range below London session high, lower highs.
After yesterday's NY-hours drop to 157.52 on Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge, the pair climbed out of the Asian range and set a London session high at 158.42. That high was rejected, and the pullback found support at the london low near 158.05, around the 50–61.8% fib of the Asia-to-London rally. Since then price has been compressing in a 158.21–158.33 range with lower highs and is now pressing the range low as NY approaches.
Support: 158.21, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.21 range low exposes the 158.05 london low and the fib 61.8% at 158.01
Close above the 158.33 range top reopens the 158.42 session high, with the 158.50 cap where intervention rhetoric risk rises
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~1h45m) could break the compression either way
Loss of the rising lows from the 157.76 asia low would undo the intraday recovery structure
12:02 UTC
Recovery from 157.52 dip, stalling below the 158.42 session high · RSI 50 · price 158.261
Higher lows since Asia; tight 158.22–158.33 range under the London high.
The NY-session dip to 157.52 on Trump's Iran pledge has fully retraced. London broke the Asian high at 158.26 and was rejected at the 158.42 session high, but the pullback held the 158.05 london low near the 50–61.8% fib and kept the rising support from the 157.76 asian low intact. Price has compressed into a 158.22–158.33 range into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR(14) about 7–8 pips.
Support: 158.22, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.22 range low exposes the 158.05 london low; losing that brings the 157.76 asian low back into view
Close above the 158.33 range top retests the 158.42 session high; beyond it sits the 158.50 cap, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the rising support line from the asian low ends the higher-low sequence
11:47 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalling below London high · RSI 47 · price 158.258
Compression between 158.22 minor low and 158.33 lower high.
London open pushed through the Asian range top to the 158.42 London high but was rejected short of the 158.50 cap. The pullback held the 158.05 London low as a higher low, near the midpoint of the Asia-London leg from the 157.76 Asia low. Price is now compressing between the 158.33 lower high and the 158.22 minor low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 158.22, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.22 minor low puts the 158.05 London low back in play
Close above the 158.33 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 158.42, with the 158.50 cap above
Loss of 158.05 undercuts the Asia-London leg and exposes the 157.76 Asia low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC in the NY session could reset the range via yields
London breakout above Asian range, now a lower high below session high.
London broke the Asian range (157.76–158.12) to a session high at 158.42 as the pair recovered from yesterday's Iran-headline dip to 157.52. The 08:45 UTC flush to the 158.05 pullback low held near the Asian high and the 61.8% fib, and price is now coiling at 158.22–158.33 under a lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 158.05, 158.12, 157.76
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 pullback low breaks rising support and puts the Asian low at 157.76 back in play
Close above the 158.42 session high opens the 158.50 range cap / 200-day SMA, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Hold of 158.12 (Asian high) keeps the breakout-retest structure intact
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read via US yields
Tight 158.27–158.33 consolidation after London break of Asian range.
Recovery from yesterday's 157.52 Iran-headline dip continued: London broke the Asian range high near 158.14 and set a session high at 158.418. The pullback to 158.048 held near the 61.8% fib and the rising trendline. Price is now coiling between the 158.27 range floor and the 158.333 range cap, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 158.27, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.333, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.333 range cap reopens the 158.418 session high and the 158.50 200d/psych area
Loss of the 158.27 range floor exposes the 158.048 pullback low and the rising trendline
Break below 158.048 and the fib zone breaks the higher-low chain, putting the 157.757 asian low back in view
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Collins, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia, compressing below London high.
London broke the Asian high at 158.255 and tagged a London high of 158.418. Price then pulled back to the 158.048 London low, near the 50% fib of the Asian-low rally, before buyers stepped back in. Price is now compressing at 158.29–158.33, with the higher-low trendline from the 157.757 Asian low intact as the recovery from yesterday's Iran-driven dip to 157.515 stalls below the 158.50 cap.
Support: 158.255, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.255 asian high returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 158.048 london low and the higher-low trendline ends the HL chain
Clearance of the 158.418 london high puts the 158.50 cap in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 157.52; coiling under London session high.
The rebound from yesterday's Trump-Iran dip to 157.52 has built a higher-low chain off the 157.76 asian low. London broke the asian high at 158.25 and printed a 158.42 session high before a rejection, and the pullback held 158.05 (london low) between the 50% and 61.8% fib. Price is now compressing at 158.29–158.33 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 158.255, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 session high opens the 158.50 round number, where supply has capped the pair
A slip back below the 158.25 asian high returns price to the Asian range
A break of the 158.05 london low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.76 asian low
UoM sentiment, inflation expectations and Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 57 · price 158.322
Higher lows from 157.76; London high at 158.42 rejected then dip bought.
London cleared the Asian range high and set a session high at 158.42, met rejection and dropped to a 158.05 swing low, which held above the 0.5–0.618 fib of the 157.76 asian low to session-high leg; price has recovered to 158.32, just under the 158.37 prior high, with the rising support trendline intact. Yesterday's NY slide to 157.52 followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pulling US yields lower, and the pair has since rebuilt back inside the 157.50–158.50 range.
Support: 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 session high exposes the 158.50 range top, where intervention sensitivity caps follow-through
Break below the 158.05 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the 157.76 asian low
Failure at the 158.37 prior high would form a lower high under the session high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
London breakout above Asian range, now a lower high below the session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.14 and set a session high at 158.42. The rejection there ran to a 158.05 swing low before buyers stepped back in, and price is now pressing a lower high at 158.33. The pair has recovered from yesterday's 157.52 low, a dip that followed Trump's Iran comments, and Asian lows have been rising since.
Support: 158.14, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.33 lower high reopens the 158.42 session high, with the 158.50 round number above
Loss of the 158.14 Asian high and the 158.05 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.76 Asian low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain; London broke above Asian range, session high retest in progress.
London broke above the Asian high at 158.255 to a session high of 158.418. A 37-pip flush to the 158.048 swing low near the 61.8% fib was bought and almost fully retraced. Higher lows run from yesterday's 157.515 Iran-headline low through 157.757 and 158.048, with price back under the 158.365 prior high; RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 158.255, 158.048, 157.757
Resistance: 158.365, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.418 session high clears the 158.365 prior high and opens the 158.50 round number
Failure to hold the 158.048 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.757 Asian low
Asian high at 158.255 is the first area to watch for a hold or rejection on dips
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Higher lows off 157.52, capped below session high · RSI 55 · price 158.26
HH/HL chain since the 157.52 low; London high rejected, pullback held.
Higher lows at 157.76 (Asian low) and 158.05 (swing low) followed yesterday's Iran-headline dip to 157.52. London ran through the 158.37 prior high to a 158.42 session high and was rejected back into the Asian range. The 08:45 UTC low at 158.05 held the rising trendline near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg, and price is back above the 158.14 Asian high at 158.26, late London morning.
Support: 158.14, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.05 swing low ends the higher-low chain and reopens the 157.76 Asian low
A close back under the 158.14 Asian high undoes the retest
A M15 close above the 158.42 session high clears the prior high cluster toward the 158.50 range top, where intervention sensitivity is elevated
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could reset intraday direction via US yields
09:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below London high · RSI 54 · price 158.22
Higher lows from Asia, failed London push above prior high.
After yesterday's Iran-headline dip to 157.50, the pair built higher lows from the 157.76 asian low. Early London swept the prior high at 158.37 to a 158.42 session high, then a sharp rejection to the 158.05 london low retraced just over half the Asia-London leg. Price is back at 158.22, a touch above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 session high negates the false break at the prior high
Loss of the 158.05 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.76 asian low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (early NY session), plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
09:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalled after London rejection · RSI 52 · price 158.173
Higher lows off 157.52 NY low; London false break above prior high reversed.
London open extended the post-Asia advance through the prior high at 158.37 to a london high of 158.42. It was then rejected 37 pips back to the london low at 158.05. Price is now holding just above the asian high at 158.14, near the 38.2% retrace of the asia-london leg, and remains above Thursday's 157.52 NY low printed after Trump's Iran comments knocked US yields.
Support: 158.14, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.42
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london low at 158.05 breaks the 50–61.8% zone of the asia-london leg and exposes the asian low at 157.76
Failure to hold the asian high at 158.14 shifts structure back inside the Asian range
Reclaim of the 158.37 prior high reopens the 158.42 london high and invalidates the false break read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could move US yields and materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled after sharp London pullback · RSI 55 · price 158.15
Asian-range breakout, false break above prior high, retesting Asian high.
USDJPY broke out of the Asian range (157.76–158.14) late in Asia and set a London session high at 158.42, briefly clearing yesterday's prior high at 158.37 before a 37-pip rejection to a 158.05 pullback low. Price is now retesting the Asian high near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, with ATR(14) around 9 pips. Yesterday's NY slide to 157.52 followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge, which pulled US yields lower.
Support: 158.14, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.42
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.05 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib near 158.01, then the 157.76 asian low
M15 close back above the 158.42 session high negates the false break at the prior high
Holding the 158.14 asian high on this retest keeps the breakout structure intact
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could shift US yields and this read during NY hours
Higher-low chain from Asian low, London break of Asian range then fade.
London broke the 158.26 Asian range high and briefly cleared yesterday's 158.37 prior high, printing a 158.42 session high before fading to 158.28. The pair has retraced all of yesterday's NY-session drop to 157.52 on the Iran no-strike headlines. The higher-low chain from the 157.76 Asian low and the rising trendline are intact, with the 158.18 swing low beneath and the 158.50 round number (the intervention-policed cap) just above.
Support: 158.18, 158.03, 157.76
Resistance: 158.42, 158.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.18 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.03 breakout base
M15 close above the 158.42 session high puts the 158.50 round number in play; intervention rhetoric is likely near that cap
Loss of the rising trendline from the Asian low (~158.24) shifts the read to a pullback toward the 38.2% fib at 158.17
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.757; Asian range broken higher, London tagged 158.418.
Price broke out of the Asian range (asian high 158.14) late in the Asia session, and London extended it to a session high at 158.418, briefly clearing yesterday's NY prior high at 158.365 before a rejection wick pulled it back to 158.32. Yesterday's yield-led drop to 157.515 after Trump's Iran pledge has fully retraced, and the rising trendline of higher lows from 157.757 is intact, with the intervention-watched 158.50 psych level overhead.
Support: 158.18, 158.14, 158.02
Resistance: 158.365, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.418 session high puts the 158.50 psych cap in play, an area where intervention rhetoric has capped gains
Failure to hold the 158.18 pullback low and the asian high at 158.14 (38.2% fib) undercuts the breakout read
A break of the rising trendline toward the 158.02 swing low (61.8% fib) confirms a lower-low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; London broke the Asian range high, then faded off 158.42.
Price broke out above the 158.14 Asian high late in Asia. Early London extended the move to a 158.42 London high, clearing yesterday's 158.365 prior high, but rejection there pulled price back to 158.30, with RSI(14) cooling to 67. The higher-low trendline from the 157.76 Asian low is intact, and the 158.50 round number that the market treats as an intervention-watched cap sits just overhead.
Support: 158.181, 158.139
Resistance: 158.365, 158.418, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.42 london high puts the 158.50 round number cap in play, where MoF rhetoric is the known brake
Holding below the 158.365 prior high keeps the London push a failed extension
Break of the 158.18 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes a retest of the 158.14 asian high near the 38.2% of the London leg fib
UoM sentiment and 1Y/5Y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
08:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 71 · price 158.328
Higher lows since 157.76 Asian low; Asian range broken higher.
Price broke the Asian high at 158.14 late in Asia. London extended the move to a 158.376 session high, just above yesterday's 158.365 peak, then stalled. That fully retraces the NY-session drop to 157.52, which followed Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge and lower US yields; higher lows hold along the rising trendline and RSI(14) sits near 71.
Support: 158.181, 158.139, 157.757
Resistance: 158.376, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.18 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the asian high at 158.14, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the asia-london leg
Acceptance above the 158.376 session high brings the 158.50 cap into view, a level where intervention rhetoric has repeatedly capped the pair
A break of the rising trendline (near 158.19) shifts the read to consolidation; loss of the 157.76 asian low reverses the London advance
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could move US yields and materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.76 Asian low; Asian range broken higher, testing prior high.
Price cleared the 158.12 Asian high late in Asia, and London open extended the move into the 158.37 prior high, the level that capped NY before yesterday's Iran-headline and yield-driven slide to 157.52. The higher-lows sequence from the 157.76 Asian low is intact, with RSI(14) near 77 and the 158.50 cap overhead.
Support: 158.22, 158.12, 157.76
Resistance: 158.37, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.22 London higher low (london hl) breaks the higher-lows sequence
A return below the 158.12 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.37 prior high opens the 158.50 cap, where intervention risk sits
A drop back toward the 157.76 Asian low would bring the 50–61.8% fib zone of the rally into play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed Collins, could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early London · RSI 73 · price 158.26
Asian range broken higher; higher-low chain intact.
USDJPY cleared the 157.76–158.14 Asian range at 05:45 UTC from a 158.02 break base. Higher lows are holding along a rising trendline, and price at 158.26 has recovered nearly all of yesterday's NY selloff from 158.37 to 157.52, which followed the Trump Iran headlines and softer yields. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and price is pressing the 158.30 prior highs early in the London session.
Support: 158.18, 158.14, 158.02
Resistance: 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 prior highs opens the 158.365 day high
Break of the 158.18 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 158.14 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 158.02 break base below
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a risk as price approaches 158.50–159
Asian range broken to the upside, HL chain from 157.76.
USDJPY has recovered most of yesterday's 85-pip NY slide (Iran no-strike headlines, US yields easing). Late in the Asia session it broke the 158.14 Asian high and set a session high at 158.26 into London open, now above the 78.6% level of the NY selloff fib. Rising support from the 157.76 Asian low through the 158.02 higher low is intact, and RSI(14) at 68 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.14, 158.02, 157.76
Resistance: 158.26, 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.30 prior range top or the 158.365 prior high keeps price capped inside yesterday's range
An M15 close back below the 158.14 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.02 higher low breaks the rising support structure
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Collins, could materially shift this read
HL chain off 157.515, Asian range broken higher pre-London.
Price has retraced most of yesterday's NY-session selloff from the 158.365 prior high to 157.515, which came as Iran de-escalation cut haven demand and US yields eased. The pair then built higher lows through Asia and broke the asian high at 158.12 before London. London open trades just under the 158.255 session high, above the 78.6% level of the selloff fib, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 158.121, 158.024, 157.757
Resistance: 158.255, 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
Holding above the asian high at 158.12 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back inside the Asian range would read as a false break
M15 close below the 158.024 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the asian low at 157.757
Clearance of the 158.255 session high and the 158.30 prior cap opens the 158.365 prior high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain into London open.
USDJPY has clawed back past the 78.6% retracement of Thursday's Iran-headline drop to 157.52. Price cleared the Asian high at 158.14 late in the Asia session, extending a higher-low chain off the 157.76 Asian low. It now sits just under the prior-day london high near 158.30, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 158.14, 158.00, 157.76
Resistance: 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.14 asian high returns price to the Asian range and negates the breakout
A close above the 158.30 london high opens the 158.365 swing high, the top of the Iran-headline drop
Loss of the rising trendline and the 158.00 round number breaks the higher-low chain toward the 157.76 asian low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
06:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 70 · price 158.215
Asian range broken to the upside pre-London; selloff almost fully retraced.
The yen bid on Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge drove a late-NY slide from the 158.365 prior high to 157.515, but price has since retraced beyond the 78.6% selloff fib. Rising lows through Asia (157.76 asian low, then 158.02 higher low) ended with a pre-London break of the 158.14 asian high; yesterday's 158.30 range top is the next cap overhead.
Support: 158.14, 158.02, 157.76
Resistance: 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.14 asian high returns price to the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 158.02 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline
Range top at 158.30 and prior high at 158.365 — area to watch for rejection or break into London
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 157.76, Asian range high broken pre-London.
Price has retraced roughly 75% of the NY-afternoon drop from 158.365 to 157.515 that followed Trump's no-Iran-strike headline. After an Asian range of 157.76–158.14, the late-Asia push cleared the asian high and is stalling just under the 158.20 session high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 60 and rising lows intact.
Support: 158.14, 158.00, 157.76
Resistance: 158.20, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.14 asian high would mark a false break of the Asian range
Close above the 158.20 session high puts the 78.6% drop retracement and the 158.365 prior high in play
Loss of the 158.00 round number breaks the rising lows line; 157.76 asian low below
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since Asia · RSI 62 · price 158.171
Late-Asia range broken higher at London open, rising lows intact.
USDJPY has retraced most of yesterday's NY selloff from the 158.365 NY high to 157.515, a drop driven by Trump's Iran pledge and the yield pullback. The late-Asia 158.02–158.11 range broke higher into London open, and price is now testing the 78.6% fib of that selloff at the 158.19 session high. Rising lows from the 157.76 Asian low are intact, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 158.12, 158.02, 157.76
Resistance: 158.19, 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.12 Asian high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back under the 158.02 range floor would mark it a false break
An M15 close through the 158.19 session high and NY selloff fib exposes the 158.30 prior high and the 158.365 NY high
A break of the rising lows trendline puts the 157.76 Asian low back in focus
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Neutral, recovering from NY selloff · RSI 51 · price 158.036
Higher low at 157.757, compressing 158.00–158.14 in late Asia.
The 85-pip NY drop from the 158.365 prior high to the 157.515 NY low came as Iran-pause headlines and softer yields hit USD. Asia then printed a higher low at 157.757 and is now compressing between the 158.00 range floor and the 158.139 Asian high, near the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop. RSI(14) is near 51 and ATR has contracted to about 7 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.139 Asian high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.365 prior high
Loss of the 158.00 range floor reopens the 157.757 Asian low, then the 157.515 NY low
Rejection near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib keeps price capped below 158.14
London open in ~75 min, likely to resolve the Asian range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
05:31 UTC
Post-selloff recovery, stalling below Asia high · RSI 59 · price 158.076
Asian range 157.76–158.14 with rising lows, sitting inside the NY drop.
USD/JPY fell 85 pips in NY to the 157.515 ny low after the Iran no-strike pledge pulled US yields and oil lower, then retraced into a 157.76–158.14 Asian range. Late in the Asia session, price is holding near the 61.8% fib of that drop around 158.04, capped below the asia high and putting in rising lows off 157.757 ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 asia high breaks the range and opens the 158.365 prior high
Loss of the 158.00 round number and the rising lows line returns focus to the 157.757 asia low
Failure at 157.757 reopens the 157.515 ny low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
05:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, compressing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 158.089
Higher lows under flat 158.11–158.14 cap.
Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge drove the NY-session drop to the 157.52 swing low. Asia rebounded, and the 157.76 Asian low held at the 61.8% fib of that rebound. Late Asia, price is coiling on rising lows above the 158.00 round number, with the 158.14 Asian high rejected three times; the prior high at 158.37 sits above.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asian high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.37 prior high
Loss of the 158.00 round number and the rising-lows trendline returns focus to the 157.76 Asian low
London open in ~2h typically sets the first break of the Asian range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Recovering from NY selloff, momentum flattening · RSI 59 · price 158.081
Higher lows below a capped Asian high, tight late-Asia consolidation.
Thursday's NY drop to the 157.515 ny low followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and the pullback in yields. Price has since retraced about two-thirds of that move on the ny drop fib. Late in the Asia session, price is coiling at 158.00–158.11 above a micro floor at 157.984, with three tests of the 158.139 asian high rejected and Asian rising lows intact from 157.757.
Support: 157.984, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.139 asian high clears the Asia cap and puts the 158.365 prior high back in view
Loss of the 157.984 micro floor breaks the Asian rising lows and exposes the 157.757 asian low
Break below the 157.757 asian low reopens the 157.515 ny low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via US yields
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
04:46 UTC
Recovering from NY selloff, compressing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 158.094
Higher lows from 157.757 against a flat 158.11–158.14 cap.
Yesterday's NY selloff on Trump's Iran pledge ran from the 158.365 prior high to a 157.515 NY low. Asia has retraced past 61.8% of that drop and is holding above the 158.00 round number on higher lows from the 157.757 Asian low. The 158.11–158.14 Asian high has capped three attempts.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.14, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asian high breaks the cap and opens 158.30–158.365 (prior high)
Loss of the 158.00 round number and the higher-low trendline exposes the 157.757 Asian low, then the 157.515 NY low
London open is the next test of the Asian range; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Recovering within range after NY selloff · RSI 58 · price 158.08
Asian range 157.76–158.14, higher lows from range floor.
The NY selloff on Trump's Iran pledge ran from the 158.37 ny high to a 157.52 ny low. Since then price has recovered about 61.8% of that drop and sits in the upper half of the Asian range. Demand held the 157.76 asian low twice, and higher lows are building above the 158.00 round number, while the 158.14 asian high caps for now.
Support: 158.00, 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 158.37 ny high in view
Loss of the 158.00 round number and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 157.76 asian low
Break below 157.76 reopens the 157.52 ny low
Rejection near the 61.8% ny drop fib keeps the range read intact into London open
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Rebound stalling, flat in Asia · RSI 52 · price 158.043
Asian range 157.76–158.14 after NY selloff, price at 61.8% retrace.
The NY-session slide from the 158.37 NY high to the 157.52 NY low on Trump's Iran pledge and softer yields has been retraced to the 61.8% fib near 158.04. Late in the Asia session price sits in the upper half of a 157.76–158.14 Asian range, holding above the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asian high breaks the range and exposes the 158.37 NY high
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number puts the 157.76 Asian low back in play, with the 157.52 NY low below
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the post-selloff recovery capped
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Sideways after NY-session drop, range compressing · RSI 48 · price 158.039
Asia range 157.76–158.14, lower high at 158.11, price mid-range.
The Tokyo-open spike to the 158.14 Asia high after household spending was sold to the 157.76 Asia low. Price is now pinned at the 158.00 round number, right at the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 158.37 to 157.52 drop on the Trump Iran headlines. The lower high at 158.11 and ATR near 9 pips point to compression, with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asia high breaks the range and exposes the 158.37 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.76 Asia low reopens the 157.52 swing low near the 200-DMA
Rejection at the 61.8% retrace keeps the post-headline drop structure intact
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations in ~10h, plus US yields and Iran headlines, could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Rebound off NY low, stalling mid-range · RSI 52 · price 158.06
Asian range 157.76–158.14 after NY selloff; higher low at 157.98.
NY's slide from the 158.365 NY high to the 157.515 NY low, driven by easing US yields and Iran de-escalation, gave way to a 157.76–158.14 Asian range. The early-Asia pop to the asian high was sold, and a second push stalled at 158.11. Price is holding just above the 61.8% NY drop fib near 158.04, with a higher low at 157.98 and RSI neutral near 52.
Support: 157.98, 157.76, 157.515
Resistance: 158.14, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 158.365 NY high
Loss of the 157.98 higher low breaks the rising higher-low line and puts the 157.76 asian low back in play
A break of the 157.76 asian low reopens the 157.515 NY low, near the ~157.50 200-DMA
London open in ~3h is likely to test the Asian range boundaries
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
03:31 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from NY selloff · RSI 50 · price 158.047
Asian range 157.76–158.14, higher low above NY low.
Yesterday's NY-session drop on Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge and easing UST yields bottomed at the 157.515 ny low. Asia has since chopped inside 157.757–158.139, printing higher lows. An early-Asia pop was rejected at the asian high, and the rebound has stalled at a 158.111 lower high. Price sits at the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop just above 158.00 psych, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.111, 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.139 asian high breaks the range and opens the path toward the 158.365 prior high
Loss of 158.00 psych and the 157.757 asian low would break the higher lows and expose the 157.515 ny low
London open in ~3.5h is the first test of the Asian range
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Contracting range 157.76–158.14 inside the NY drop, higher low intact.
USD/JPY fell 85 pips in NY, from the prior high at 158.365 to the ny low at 157.515, as yields eased after Trump's Iran no-strike pledge. Asia has since held a higher low at 157.757 and capped at the asian high of 158.14, where the uptick after Japan household spending met rejection. Price is mid-range at 158.01, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 158.14 clears the 61.8% fib of the NY drop and puts the prior high at 158.365 back in view
Failure to hold the asian low at 157.757 breaks the higher lows line and exposes the ny low at 157.515
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Recovering within Asian range after NY selloff · RSI 53 · price 158.068
Asian range 157.76–158.14, price in upper half.
Mid-Asia session: the early uptick to the 158.14 Asian high faded to 157.76, a false break of the overnight low that reversed back above the 158.00 round number. Price sits just above the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's NY drop from the 158.365 NY high to the 157.515 NY low, a drop triggered by Trump's no-strike pledge pulling US yields lower. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 158.00, 157.757, 157.515
Resistance: 158.139, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asian high breaks the range top and brings the 158.365 NY high into view
Loss of the 158.00 round number returns price to the Asian low at 157.76; a break there exposes the 157.515 NY low
Rejection near the 78.6% retrace (~158.18) of the NY drop would keep the recovery corrective
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, along with US 10y and Iran headlines, could materially shift this read
Late Thursday NY trade saw an ~85-pip slide from the 158.37 prior high to the 157.52 swing low after Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pulled US yields lower. Asia session has rotated inside a 157.76–158.14 range, with price back near the top and holding just above the 158.00 round number. The rebound has cleared the 61.8% fib of the drop near 158.04.
Support: 158.00, 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 158.37 prior high
Failure back below the 158.00 round number returns focus to the 157.76 asian low
A break of 157.76 exposes the 157.52 swing low from the post-pledge drop
Iran headlines following the NYT strike-plan report could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations later Friday (14:00 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher lows off 157.52, Asian range 157.76–158.14.
Price has recovered to the 61.8% retracement of the NY slide from the 158.37 prior high to the 157.52 prior low, a drop driven by Trump's no-strike Iran pledge and easing US yields. Mid-Asia session, buyers defended the 157.76 Asian low and price is back near 158.00 inside a 157.76–158.14 range. The sequence of higher lows is intact.
Support: 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asian high exposes the 158.37 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.76 Asian low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 157.52 prior low back in play
Follow-up headlines on the NYT Iran strike-plan report, or a move in US 10y yields, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Neutral after NY selloff, compressing · RSI 54 · price 157.965
Lower high 158.14 / higher low 157.76 inside the 157.52–158.37 drop.
Thursday's NY selloff from the 158.37 prior high to the 157.52 NY low followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and easing US yields. Asia has since printed a rejection at the 158.14 asian high, then a higher low at the 157.76 asian low, so the swing range is contracting. Price is back at the 158.00 round number and the 50% fib, flat against EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.00, 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 158.37 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.76 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 157.52 NY low back in play
Repeated stalls at the 158.00 round number keep the consolidation intact
Iran strike-plan follow-ups or a US 10y move off ~5.22% could break the compression before London open
Asia range 157.76–158.14 after late-NY selloff; rejection from session high.
Late-NY selloff on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge took the pair from the 158.37 prior high to a 157.52 NY low. Early Asia, likely on the NYT strike-plan report, it ran to a 158.14 session high, overshooting the 61.8% retrace of that drop, then rejected back to the 157.76 session low. Price now sits mid-range below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.76 session low exposes the 157.52 ny low
M15 close back above the 157.96 swing high reopens the 158.14 session high, with the 158.37 prior high above
Iran strike-plan headlines and US yields remain the JPY driver; prelim UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Pullback, lower highs since NY selloff · RSI 42 · price 157.811
Asian rally fully retraced, price back at Asian low.
Mid-Asia session: the overnight push from the 157.78 Asian low stalled at 158.14 (asian high), short of the 78.6% retrace of the NY selloff. It has since been given back in three bars, with price on the Asian low and below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 42. The NY drop from 158.37 to the 157.52 NY low came on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and the yield pullback. Highs have stepped lower since, keeping the lower-high trendline intact.
Support: 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.14
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low exposes the 157.52 NY low
Recovery above the 157.96 ny bounce high would neutralise the Asia-session rejection
Close above the 158.14 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline
Follow-up to the NYT Iran strike-plan report and moves in US yields can shift this read before Friday's UoM (14:00 UTC)
01:31 UTC
Down after NY selloff, Asia rebound faded · RSI 43 · price 157.811
Lower high at 158.14 below prior high, price back at Asian range low.
The NY-afternoon drop on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge ran from the 158.37 prior high to the 157.52 NY low. The early-Asia rebound stalled at the 158.14 Asian high, well short of that high. Price has since retraced nearly the full Asian rally fib and sits on the 157.78 Asian low, below both EMAs, with ATR near 9 pips.
Support: 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.78 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.52 NY low
Reclaim of 157.96 swing high returns price to the mid of the Asian rally
Asian high at 158.14 caps the session; a break above it re-targets the 158.37 prior high
Follow-up headlines on the NYT Iran strike-plan report or a crude rebound could lift US yields and reverse the yen relief
01:16 UTC
Down from NY high, Asia rebound faded · RSI 52 · price 157.91
Lower high at 158.14 below 158.37; inside 157.78–158.14 Asian range.
The Asian rally on the NYT Iran strike-plan report stalled at 158.14, a rejection between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of Thursday's NY selloff from the 158.37 prior high to the 157.52 swing low, which followed Trump's no-strike pledge. The 01:00 UTC drop to 157.87 erased most of that rebound, leaving price below EMA20/50, under the 157.96 bounce high and mid-way in the Asian range.
Support: 157.87, 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.14, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.87 drop low exposes the 157.78 asian low, then the 157.52 swing low
Reclaiming the 157.96 bounce high and 158.14 asian high breaks the lower highs line toward the 158.37 prior high
Iran/oil headlines and UoM sentiment with inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Rebound from NY selloff, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 62 · price 158.024
Tight Asian range 157.98–158.14 below the NY breakdown point.
NY hours saw an 85-pip drop from the 158.37 NY high to the 157.52 NY low after Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge pulled US yields lower. Asia session has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 158.04. Supply is capping the 158.14 Asia high four times, and the 157.98 Asia low holds below.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 158.14, 158.30, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.14 Asia high opens the 158.30 range top and the NY high
Failure to hold the 157.98 Asia low exposes the 157.78 rollover low
Iran strike headlines after the NYT report and US 10y moves could shift this read quickly
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC
00:46 UTC
Recovering from NY selloff, momentum firm · RSI 72 · price 158.093
Higher lows off 157.78; tight Asian range 157.98–158.12 at 61.8% retrace.
Thursday's NY selloff from the 158.365 swing high to the 157.515 swing low followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge. Price has since built higher lows off the 157.78 late NY low and retraced past the 61.8% level. Asia session is holding a tight 157.98–158.12 band beneath the asian high, RSI(14) at 72.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 158.12, 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 asian high opens the 158.30 range top, where the London session was capped
Failure to hold the 157.98 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.78 late NY low
Retest of the 158.365 swing high would fully unwind the NY selloff
Escalation headlines following the NYT strike-plan report, or a US yield rebound, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 157.515 swing low would confirm a lower-low below the post-selloff range
00:31 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, higher lows forming · RSI 64 · price 158.03
Higher lows 157.515 → 157.78 → 157.98; Asia stalling at the 61.8% retrace.
The NY session drop from the 158.365 NY high to the 157.515 NY low followed Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and the pullback in US yields. Early Asia broke above the overnight 157.78–157.93 range off the 157.78 rollover low, stalling at the 158.12 Asia high, near the 61.8% retrace of that drop, while the 157.98 pullback low holds.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 158.12, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.12 Asia high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 158.365 NY high
Failure to hold the 157.98 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.78 rollover low back in focus
A break of the rising support line from the NY low invalidates the recovery read
Iran strike headlines (NYT report) or a US yield rebound could materially shift this read during the Asia session
00:16 UTC
Rebounding inside a broader intraday drop · RSI 66 · price 158.068
Asia higher-low chain retracing the NY selloff; price sits at the 61.8% fib.
The NY session dropped 85 pips from the 158.365 NY high to the 157.515 NY low after Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pulled oil and US yields lower. Early Asia session has carried price off the 157.78 rollover low along a rising line of higher lows. Price is now retesting the 61.8% fib near 158.04, with the 158.12 Asia high capping so far and RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 158.12, 158.18, 158.365
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.12 Asia high exposes the 78.6% fib at 158.18 and the old London floor
A break of the rising line and the 157.98 higher low ends the Asia recovery chain and puts the 157.78 rollover low back in play
Loss of 157.78 reopens the 157.515 NY low; the 158.365 NY high is the upside reference that would reverse the NY drop
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment/inflation expectations and Collins could materially shift this read; US 10y and oil headlines drive in the meantime
00:01 UTC
Rebound off NY low, momentum firm · RSI 65 · price 158.055
Higher lows from 157.52; 157.78–157.96 range broken higher at the Asia open.
USDJPY has retraced about 61.8% of Thursday's NY drop from the 158.37 day high to the 157.52 NY low, a slide driven by Trump's Iran no-strike pledge and softer US yields. A push out of the 157.78–157.96 post-NY range set a 158.12 session high into the Tokyo open, with the recovery trendline intact and RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 157.96, 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 158.12, 158.365
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.12 session high caps the move at the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop
A clean break above 158.12 brings the 158.37 day high back into view
An M15 close back below the 157.96 prior high and the recovery trendline exposes the 157.78 rollover low
A loss of 157.78 reopens the 157.52 NY low; Iran/oil headlines and US yields remain the swing drivers