19:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing intervention zone · RSI 59 · price 160.095
Multi-quarter recovery, stalling near 160.
Regime is a multi-quarter uptrend: USDJPY based at the April 2025 low near 140 and has ground higher along rising support, now pressing the 160.00 psych level and the 160.72 intervention zone. EMA(50) on W1 is rising and price holds well above it, so macro structure stays constructive, though the recovery leg has flattened into consolidation under 160.70 with RSI mid-range rather than extreme. The 160.00/160.70 band has capped every push in 2026 — officials' 'decisive action' rhetoric repeatedly cited around this area.
Support: 157.50, 155.35
Resistance: 160.72, 160.00
What it said to watch
- Sustained W1 close above 160.72 invites MoF intervention risk and would break the consolidation
- BoJ decision Tue (25bp hike priced) — guidance tone could shift the read more than the hike itself
- Failure to hold 157.50 prior range opens the path back toward 155.35