14:13 UTC
Macro uptrend, range-bound since Q4 2025 · RSI 49 · price 158.159
152–160.70 range after a failed break to 163.99.
The macro uptrend from the April 2025 low near 139.89 stalled into a 152.09–160.72 range from Q4 2025. The June breakout to a 163.99 cycle high failed in late July, a false break that returned price inside the range, and the September swing low at 152.89 held above the range floor. Price holds above the W1 EMA(50) at 156.38 with RSI near 49, so the macro filter is intact but momentum is neutral, and the bar is pinned at the 23.6% fib of the 139.89–163.99 advance near 158.30. Wide yield differentials keep the structural yen headwind in place, while MoF intervention risk near 160 has repeatedly capped the range top.
Support: 156.38, 152.89, 152.09
Resistance: 158.30, 160.72, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 160.72 range top reopens the 163.99 cycle high, though MoF intervention risk clusters near 160.
- A weekly close below the 156.38 EMA(50) shifts the regime read toward the 152 range floor.
- A break of the 152.09 range floor and the 152.89 swing low ends the range and the macro uptrend structure.
- US CPI on Wed Oct 14 could decide whether the 23.6% fib at 158.30 caps price or gives way.