Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Transitioning: lower highs since July, higher low since Sep 8 · RSI 57 · price 158.678
Recovery from 152.89 pressing the top of a 2-week range, below the 159.03 lower high.
Two sharp liquidations, Jul 30–Aug 3 off the 163.99 jul high and Sep 2–8 off the 160.39 sep high, left a lower-high chain, but the recovery line from the 152.89 Sep low produced a higher low at the 156.38 range low on Sep 30. Price has spent two weeks in a 156.38–158.51 range just around a flattening EMA(50) at 158.17. Monday closed at 158.68, above the range top and just past the 50% retracement (158.44) of the Jul–Sep decline, as yen softness on the wider US-Japan yield gap and a hawkish Fed carried the pair higher.
Support: 158.51, 158.17, 156.38
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 158.51 range top and the ema50 at 158.17 (recovery line near 158.3) returns the pair to the 156.38–158.51 range
- Close above the 159.03 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the jul high; the 61.8% Jul–Sep fib at 159.74 and the 160.39 sep high sit above
- US September CPI, Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric typically intensifies as price approaches 160
- Failure to hold the 156.38 range low reopens the 152.89 Sep low
18:32 UTC
Transitioning; lower highs since July, now range-bound · RSI 58 · price 158.65
Two-week range 156.38–158.75 after rebound off the Sept low, price pressing range top.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 163.99 July peak, with the Sept low at 152.89 marking the trough before a rebound to the Sept 24 high at 159.03. Since late September price has held a range between the 156.38 range low and the 158.50–158.75 range top. That range sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the July–September decline, and price is holding above a flat EMA50 near 157.70. A firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing and a wider US-Japan yield gap after last week's JGB rally have kept the pair leaning on the range top into US CPI.
Support: 157.70, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 158.75, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 158.75 range top would break the two-week range and expose the Sept 24 high at 159.03, then the 61.8% fib near 159.75
- Approach toward 160.39, the Sept 2 high, runs into the ~160 area where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
- Slip back below the EMA50 near 157.70 returns focus to the 156.38 range low; a break there brings the Sept low at 152.89 back into view as the major pivot
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the scenario most likely to challenge the range top, a soft one to pull price back into the range