Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.95 CPI high; fresh low in early Asia.
The hot-CPI spike to the 158.95 CPI high has been fully retraced as Treasury yields reversed. Price broke below the prior Asian low at 158.11 and the 158.05 NY low into early Asia, printing 158.01 just above the 158.00 round number. The 158.38 bounce high capped near the 38.2% of the CPI selloff fib, keeping the lower-high sequence intact; RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.11, 158.38, 158.95
What it said to watch
BoJ Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone puts the 158.00 round number and the 157.85 range floor in focus
M15 close back above the 158.11 Asian low undercuts the lower-low read
Lower-highs trendline and the 158.38 bounce high mark where a recovery would be tested; a reclaim reopens the 158.95 CPI high
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could reverse the post-CPI fade
Lower highs from 158.95; new session low 158.035 just under the NY low.
The hot US CPI spike double-topped at 158.95 during NY hours and fully reversed into a 158.045 NY low. Early Asia then dropped from the 158.29 shelf to a marginal new session low at 158.035. The lower high at 158.38 and the falling lower-high trendline cap the post-CPI drop fib, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 158.035, 158.00
Resistance: 158.29, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low chain beneath the session low
Recovery above the 158.29 shelf and the 158.38 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the down-sequence
BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu are the next scheduled USD risk
The hot-CPI spike to 158.95 drew a double rejection and fully unwound during NY hours as yields reversed. Price now sits below the Asian low at 158.11, the lower high at 158.38 capped the rebound at the 38.2% retrace, and the 158.04 swing low has been tested twice into thin early-Asia trade, RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.11, 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.04 swing low and the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.85 prior base
Recovery above the 158.11 Asian low and the 158.38 lower high would break the post-CPI downtrend structure
158.50 (200-DMA, Asian session high) is the next cap above the lower high
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu is the next USD driver
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 18 · price 158.038
Lower highs, fresh lower low below NY low.
The hot US CPI spike to the 158.95 cpi high fully unwound during NY hours, a false break of the Asian high. Price has since slipped back through the 158.11 asian low and broken the 158.26–158.34 late-NY range to a fresh low at 158.04 into early Asia. RSI(14) near 18 is stretched, and the 158.38 swing high, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, marks the latest lower high.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.112, 158.381, 158.946
What it said to watch
Sustained break of the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.85 range base
M15 close back above the 158.11 asian low would negate the lower-low read
M15 close above the 158.38 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the cpi high
BoJ Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC could extend yen demand or spark a sharp reversal
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.95; bounce capped at 38.2%, price back near lows.
The hot US CPI spike stalled at the 158.95 cpi high, just shy of 159.00. Late NY then unwound the whole move to a 158.045 post-cpi low as risk-off yen demand built. The bounce stalled at the 158.38 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and early Asia is drifting back toward the 158.16 rollover low.
Support: 158.16, 158.045
Resistance: 158.38, 158.48, 158.95
What it said to watch
Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.045 post-cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 158.38 bounce high and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read
A move back above the 158.48 pre-cpi base would neutralise the false break
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu are the next major catalyst
22:17 UTC
Post-CPI reversal, flat drift after NY · RSI 42 · price 158.319
Double top at 158.95, low at 158.05, bounce capped near 38.2%.
The hot US CPI spike above the asian high stalled in a double top at the cpi high of 158.95. The move was fully unwound during NY hours, down to a post-cpi low of 158.05, just under the asian low at 158.11. The bounce stalled at the 158.38 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is now drifting in a 158.27 range low to 158.38 band with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 158.27, 158.11, 158.05
Resistance: 158.38, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.38 bounce high and the 38.2% fib opens the 158.51 asian high
Failure to hold the 158.27 range low exposes the asian low at 158.11 and the post-cpi low at 158.05
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu are the larger risk for a retest of the cpi high
22:01 UTC
Down from CPI high, bounce stalling · RSI 50 · price 158.287
Post-CPI spike fully reversed; lower high at 158.38 after NY low.
Hot US CPI lifted the pair to a 158.95 double top, but NY hours unwound the whole move. Price swept the Asian low at 158.11 to a 158.05 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near the 158.38 bounce high, and price now sits on a late base at 158.27 in thin post-NY trade, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 158.27, 158.11, 158.045
Resistance: 158.38, 158.49, 158.946
What it said to watch
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift the read
M15 close above the 158.38 bounce high opens a retest of the 158.49 pre-cpi high
Loss of the 158.27 late base exposes the 158.11 asian low and the 158.05 ny low
US PPI / retail sales cluster at 12:30 UTC Thu is the next volatility point; the 158.95 double top caps the CPI range
Lower highs from 158.95 double top; false break below Asian low reclaimed.
Hot US CPI lifted the pair to a 158.95 double top during NY hours. The whole move then unwound into an 18:30 UTC low at 158.05, briefly undercutting the 158.11 Asian low before reclaiming it. Price is now in a thin post-NY range near 158.29, below the 158.38 bounce high and a lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) around 41 and price under EMA20/50.
Support: 158.27, 158.11, 158.05
Resistance: 158.38, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.38 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.51 Asian high back in view
Loss of the 158.27 range low reopens the 158.11 Asian low and the 158.05 NY low
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC (under 4h); hawkish remarks could jolt JPY during the Asia session
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales cluster is the next major USD catalyst
Double top at 158.946, full retrace to 158.045, tight consolidation 158.27–158.38.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair through the 158.513 Asian high to a 158.946 CPI high. That high was tested twice, forming a double top, and NY hours then unwound the whole leg to a 158.045 NY low by 18:30 UTC. The rebound stalled at 158.381, the bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib. Price is now drifting near 158.29 in thin post-NY trade, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 158.266, 158.112, 158.045
Resistance: 158.381, 158.513, 158.946
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.266 late low exposes the 158.112 Asian low and the 158.045 NY low; a break there confirms a lower-low
M15 close above the 158.381 bounce high / 38.2% fib opens a retest of the 158.513 Asian high
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI / retail sales cluster could revive a run at the 158.946 CPI high
Triple top at 158.95, lower highs into a false break of the Asian low, now back inside the Asian range.
Hot US CPI lifted the pair from the 158.40s to a 158.95 CPI high in the first hour of NY. Three rejections there, just under the 159.00 September peak, led to a 90-pip fade that cut through the 158.11 Asian low to a 158.045 NY low. Price has recovered back inside the Asian range and is stalling at the 158.38 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, with thin trade after NY close.
Support: 158.112, 158.045
Resistance: 158.381, 158.513, 158.946
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 bounce high and 38.2% fib reopens the 158.51 Asian high
Close back below the 158.11 Asian low turns the false break into a fresh leg under the 158.045 NY low
BoJ's Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC (~4h); a hawkish tone or MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
158.95 CPI high, capped three times near the 159.00 September peak, remains the upper boundary of the day's range
Double top at 158.95, sell-off to 158.05, bounce capped at the 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair through the asian high at 158.51 to a 158.95 double top, just shy of 159.00. The whole leg unwound in late NY hours, down to a 158.05 ny low. The bounce high at 158.38 stalled at the 38.2% fib, and price sits below both EMAs near 158.32 into the NY close.
Support: 158.20, 158.045
Resistance: 158.38, 158.51, 158.946
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 bounce high (38.2% fib) puts the 158.51 asian high and 50% retrace in view
Failure to hold the 158.20 london low reopens the 158.05 ny low
Double top at 158.95 sits near the 159.00 zone flagged for Japan intervention rhetoric
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC, about 4.5h away during the Asia session, and could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 158.95, shallow bounce from 158.05 low.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 158.40–158.49 London range to a triple top at the 158.95 cpi high, just shy of the September peak. NY then unwound the whole spike, sweeping the 158.11 asian low into a 158.05 ny low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 158.38 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) ~37 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 158.11, 158.05
Resistance: 158.38, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.38 bounce high and 38.2% retrace opens the 158.51 asian high, which lines up with the 50% level
A break back below the 158.11 asian low exposes the 158.05 ny low; a close under it confirms a lower low
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC during the Asia session and could shift JPY tone
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales: a renewed push toward the 158.95 cpi high runs into intervention-sensitive 159.00
Post-CPI double top, full unwind, lower-high bounce.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair from 158.40 to a double top at 158.95, just under the 159.00 intervention-risk zone. The NY afternoon then unwound the entire move to a 158.05 NY low, below the Asian session low. The late-NY bounce is now retesting the 158.40 breakdown level and the 38.2% fib, with EMA20 near 158.46 overhead.
Support: 158.14, 158.05
Resistance: 158.40, 158.56, 158.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.40 breakdown and the 158.50 fib midpoint and EMA20 opens the 158.56 shelf
Failure back below the 158.14 swing low reopens the 158.05 NY low
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC (Asia session) and could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC. The 158.95 double top remains the post-CPI ceiling
Lower highs from 158.95, Asian low swept, retracing.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from the 158.40 CPI base to 158.95 at the NY open. A double top at that CPI high under 159.00 then gave way, and the entire move unwound. Late NY swept the Asian low at 158.11 to a 158.045 NY low before rebounding; price is now back at 158.32, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) at 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.11, 158.045
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.40 CPI base puts price back in the pre-CPI range, with the 158.51 Asian high and 50% retracement next.
A slip back under the 158.11 Asian low and a break of the 158.045 NY low would extend the lower-low sequence.
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session and could materially shift this read.
The double top stays intact unless price recovers through the 158.95 CPI high.
Post-CPI spike fully unwound; lower highs from 158.95, session low 158.05 then reclaim of the Asian low.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted the pair to 158.95, but two rejections just shy of 159.00 started a full CPI unwind through NY hours. Price broke the asian low at 158.11 for a 158.05 session low, then quickly reclaimed it, and is now testing the 158.33 bounce high with RSI(14) near 33 and the fib 38.2 at 158.39 just above.
Support: 158.11, 158.05
Resistance: 158.33, 158.39, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 158.11 reopens the 158.05 session low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the fib 38.2 at 158.39 turns the bounce toward the asian high at 158.50
Rejection at the 158.33 bounce high keeps the CPI unwind structure intact
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC (~5.5h) during the Asia session and could materially shift this read
Double top at 158.946, lower highs into a sweep of the Asian low.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT pushed the pair through the 158.513 Asian high to a 158.946 double top. NY then unwound the whole move along a line of lower highs and swept the 158.112 Asian low to 158.045. A late-NY bounce has stalled near 158.28, below the 158.42 London base, with RSI(14) recovering toward 34.
Support: 158.112, 158.045
Resistance: 158.42, 158.513, 158.657
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.42 London base brings the 158.657 post-CPI low and the lower highs trendline into play
Failure to hold back above the 158.112 Asian low keeps the 158.045 NY low exposed; a break below it confirms a fresh lower-low
38.2% of the CPI fade sits near 158.39, just under the London base, as the first retrace marker
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 GMT (~6h) during the Asia session could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near oversold · RSI 28 · price 158.194
CPI rally fully unwound; lower highs, Asian low swept then reclaimed.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted the pair to a 158.95 CPI high. A double top there gave way in late NY and the whole CPI leg unwound, sweeping the Asian low to a 158.05 session low before stalling near 158.20 with RSI(14) around 28. Rebounds sit beneath the lower highs line. The 158.40 pre-CPI base lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the drop.
Support: 158.112, 158.045, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.513, 158.946
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.40 pre-cpi base reopens the 158.51 asian high (50% retrace)
Failure to hold the 158.05 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
Slipping back under the 158.11 asian low turns the sweep into a clean break
Lower highs line from the 158.95 cpi high stays intact while rebounds fail below 158.60
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC (~6h) and any MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
Double top at 158.95, lower-high/lower-low slide into a sweep of the Asian low.
The hot US CPI spike stalled twice at 158.95 during NY hours, just shy of 159.00, and the pair has since given back the entire move. The slide accelerated around the 18:00 GMT Beige Book release and broke the 158.40 pre-cpi base. It then swept the 158.11 asian low to a 158.05 session low before steadying, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 158.11, 158.05, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Holding back above the 158.11 asian low keeps the sweep read intact. An M15 close below the 158.05 session low and the 158.00 round number extends the post-CPI decline.
A recovery into the 158.40 pre-cpi base (38.2% of the post-CPI decline) is the area to watch for rejection or break. The 50% retracement sits near the 158.51 asian high.
BoJ's Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC and any Fed Chair Warsh remarks could materially shift this read.
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after full CPI-rally reversal · RSI 21 · price 158.139
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.95 double top; Asian low broken.
Hot US CPI lifted the pair to a double top at 158.95, just shy of the 159.00 area flagged for intervention risk. NY hours then unwound the whole post-CPI leg along descending highs, back through the 158.40 pre-cpi base and the 158.11 Asian low to a 158.045 session low, with RSI(14) near 21 oversold.
Support: 158.112, 158.045, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.513
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.045 session low and the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low chain
Recovery back above the asian low and then the 158.40 pre-cpi base (38.2% of the cpi fade fib) would mark the drop as a sweep
A move through the 158.51 asian high and the descending highs line near 158.60 negates the fade structure
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC and any MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
Triple top near 158.95, lower highs and lower lows since 15:15 GMT; pre-CPI base broken.
The hot-CPI spike stalled three times at 158.95, forming a triple top. Lower highs followed through NY, and the 158.66 neckline gave way. The slide accelerated through the 18:00 GMT Beige Book window, breaking the 158.40 pre-cpi base and fully erasing the CPI move. Price is now testing the London low at 158.20, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) about 12 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.11
Resistance: 158.40, 158.66, 158.95
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 158.20 exposes the asian low at 158.11
A reclaim of the 158.40 pre-cpi base and the 38.2% sell-off fib near 158.50 would challenge the lower-highs read
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC (Asia session) and any MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
A move back above the 158.66 neckline would neutralise the triple top
Triple top at 158.95, lower-highs sequence back to the CPI origin.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair from 158.40 to a triple top near 158.95, with supply capping it short of 159.00 where intervention risk sits. That gain has fully unwound through NY hours on a chain of lower highs. Price is now testing the 158.40 CPI origin with RSI(14) near 31, after the 158.66 broken low gave way.
Support: 158.40, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.49, 158.66, 158.95
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.40 CPI origin exposes the 158.21 London low, then the 158.11 Asian low.
A recovery above the 158.49 pre-CPI high and the 158.66 broken low (50% of the post-CPI fade) would break the lower-highs line.
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session could reprice JPY. MoF intervention rhetoric near 159 is also live.
US PPI and retail sales on Thu at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Double top at 158.95, neckline lost, sliding toward pre-CPI breakout zone.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from the 158.40 cpi origin to a 158.95 cpi high, but a second rejection there in NY hours formed a double top. Price has since broken the 158.66 prior low and slipped under the falling trendline from that top, with lower highs capping each bounce. Late in the NY session it is now 72% back into the CPI leg, just above the 158.51 asian high.
Support: 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.66, 158.79, 158.95
What it said to watch
A hold of the 158.51 asian high keeps the CPI breakout intact; a close below it puts the 158.40 cpi origin and a full retrace in play
A recovery above the 158.66 prior low and the falling trendline near 158.70 would weaken the double-top read
Only a close above the 158.79 lower high reopens the 158.95 cpi high
Beige Book and Warsh remarks this evening could reprice US yields during NY hours
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session; a hawkish tone on yen weakness could extend the fade
Triple top at 158.95, lower-high/lower-low chain through NY hours.
The hot US core CPI print lifted the pair from 158.40 to the 158.95 cpi high. Three tests there failed short of 159.00, and NY has since printed lower highs, giving back more than 61.8% of the move. Price sits on EMA50 near 158.59 and just above the 158.56 session low after London close, RSI(14) 43, with the Asian high at 158.51 the next reference below.
Support: 158.56, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.79, 158.95
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.67 broken low and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.79 lower high
Failure to hold the 158.56 session low exposes the 158.51 asian high, then the 158.40 cpi low
Recovery through the 158.95 cpi high toward 159.00 negates the triple top; MoF intervention rhetoric is a risk in that zone
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot US core CPI lifted the pair from the 158.40 cpi origin to a double top at 158.95. Lower highs through NY hours have since given back half the move. The latest bar broke the 158.66 post-cpi low and sits just under the 61.8% retracement, with the 158.49 pre-cpi high next below.
Support: 158.49, 158.40
Resistance: 158.66, 158.95
What it said to watch
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could reset the late-NY read
A close back above 158.66 (post-cpi low) negates the range break
Loss of the 158.49 pre-cpi high exposes the 158.40 cpi origin and a full CPI retrace
BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk during the Asia session
17:31 UTC
Post-CPI breakout, now pulling back · RSI 42 · price 158.715
Lower highs and lower lows below the 158.95 double top.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 158.11–158.51 Asian range. A double top at 158.95 then capped NY. Since then, lower highs and a post-cpi low at 158.66 have shaped a pullback into the late NY session, with RSI(14) near 42 and price back under EMA20.
Support: 158.66, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.85, 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 lower high reopens the 158.95 double top and the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.66 post-cpi low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.63 and the 158.51 asian high
A move back below the 158.40 pre-cpi base would unwind the CPI breakout
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japanese FX rhetoric is a risk if price returns toward 159.00
158.66–158.95 range after impulse; lower highs since 158.95.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian high at 158.51 and ran to a 158.95 session high, which capped price three times. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is rotating in a 158.66–158.95 band with lower highs. Dips have held at the 158.66 swing low, near the 50% retrace of the CPI leg.
Support: 158.66, 158.50
Resistance: 158.85, 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.66 swing low opens a retest of the 158.50 asian high
A break above the 158.85 lower high and the 158.95 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric near 159.00 is a topside risk
17:01 UTC
Post-CPI spike, now ranging under highs · RSI 47 · price 158.774
NY range 158.66–158.95, lower highs since the CPI high.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT broke the 158.40–158.49 pre-data range and the asian high at 158.51, running to the cpi high at 158.95. Three rejections there have produced lower highs and a late-NY range down to the ny low at 158.66. Price is now bouncing back near the ema20 at roughly 158.74.
Support: 158.657, 158.513
Resistance: 158.846, 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.85 lower highs breaks the trendline and reopens the cpi high at 158.95 and the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the ny low at 158.66 points to a deeper retrace of the CPI leg past the 50% fib, toward the asian high at 158.51
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Japanese FX rhetoric near 159.00 adds two-way risk, with BoJ Koeda due at 01:30 UTC
158.67–158.95 post-CPI range, lower highs under the top.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 158.40–158.49 pre-data range. It then stalled at 158.95, where three NY-hours tests formed a triple top, and has since slipped back after London close to the 158.67 CPI low. That low sits on the 50% fib of the CPI leg, with RSI(14) near 44 and price back below EMA20.
Support: 158.67, 158.61, 158.50
Resistance: 158.85, 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.67 cpi low completes the triple top and exposes the 61.8% fib at 158.61 and the 158.50 pre-cpi top
Recovery above the 158.85 lower high reopens a test of the 158.95 triple top
Close above 158.95 brings the 159.00 round number into play, where Japan intervention rhetoric risk rises
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend after CPI breakout, stalling under session high · RSI 57 · price 158.804
Post-CPI range 158.67–158.95 above the broken Asian range.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke USD/JPY out of the 158.11–158.51 Asian range, and the NY session has since been rejected three times at the 158.946 session high. The pullback held the 158.668 swing low, at the 50% retrace of the CPI leg. Price sits mid-range near 158.80 with RSI(14) around 57 and ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 158.77, 158.668, 158.513
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.946 session high and 159.00 psych opens the 159.05 range top, where intervention risk is flagged
Failure to hold the 158.77 pullback low keeps price in the lower half of the post-CPI range
A break of the 158.668 swing low exposes the 158.513 asian high, the pre-CPI range ceiling
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
CPI breakout above Asian range, now a 158.67–158.95 range.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke USD/JPY out of the 158.40–158.49 London range and above the 158.51 Asian high. Since then price has held a 158.67–158.95 range, and the session high at 158.946 has capped three times. The 15:45 dip to the ny low at 158.668 held the 50% of the cpi leg fib and closed back above the 158.77 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 58.
Support: 158.77, 158.668, 158.49
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.946 session high exposes the 159.00 round number and the 159.05 range top, the zone where Japanese intervention rhetoric has picked up
Failure to hold the 158.668 ny low and the 50% of the cpi leg fib reopens the 158.49 pre-cpi high
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Post-CPI rally fading · RSI 50 · price 158.682
Triple top at 158.95, post-CPI range floor at 158.77 broken.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair about 45 pips out of the 158.40–158.49 pre-CPI range. Three NY-session tests of 158.95 were rejected, forming a triple top. The latest bars broke the 158.77 post-CPI range floor, and price now sits on the 50% fib of the CPI leg near 158.67 with RSI(14) back at 50.
Support: 158.67, 158.49
Resistance: 158.77, 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 158.67 exposes the pre-CPI high at 158.49
An M15 close back above the 158.77 range floor negates the range break
Clearance of the 158.95 triple top brings the 159.00 round number into play, where intervention rhetoric risk is flagged
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Breakout above Asian range, now a 158.77–158.95 consolidation.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC took USD/JPY out of the 158.11–158.51 Asian range and through the 158.49 london high. The pair then met three rejections at the 158.95 session high during the London-NY overlap. Price is holding above the 158.77 pullback low with RSI(14) cooling to 63, and the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg sits near 158.74.
Support: 158.77, 158.74, 158.49
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.95 session high brings the 159.00 sept peak into play, where Japanese intervention rhetoric is flagged.
A break of the 158.77 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.74, then the 158.49 london high.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Post-CPI range 158.77–158.95, higher low intact, triple test of session high.
The core CPI beat at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 158.40–158.49 London range in a single 45-pip bar. Mid-NY session, price has been rejected three times at the 158.95 session high just under the 159.00 Sept peak, while the 158.77 pullback low holds above the fib 38.2 of the CPI leg and the rising CPI trendline. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) has expanded to about 10 pips.
Support: 158.77, 158.49
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 158.95 opens a test of the 159.00 Sept peak and the 159.05 range top, where intervention rhetoric is flagged
A break below the 158.77 pullback low and the rising CPI trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 near 158.74
A return under the 158.49 London high would unwind the CPI breakout
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout above Asia high, tight NY range below 159.00.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT cleared the London range and the Asia high at 158.51, putting in a session high at 158.946 just under the 159.00 Sept peak. NY hours have held a 158.77–158.95 box, with the post-cpi low holding above the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg and RSI(14) cooling to ~67.
Support: 158.77, 158.51
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.946 session high puts the 159.00 Sept peak and 159.05 range top in play, where Japanese intervention rhetoric has capped gains
Failure to hold the 158.77 post-cpi low exposes the 38.2%–50% fib zone (158.74–158.67) and the 158.51 Asia high
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Impulsive range break, now consolidating 158.77–158.95.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the London range top near 158.49 in a single 43-pip bar at 12:30 GMT and extended to a 158.95 session high, just shy of the 159.00 round number. The NY pullback found demand at the 158.77 post-CPI low, above the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg at 158.74, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67.
Support: 158.77, 158.72, 158.49
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.77 post-CPI low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.74 and the 158.72 CPI bar low
An M15 close above the 158.95 session high brings the 159.00 round number and 159.05 sept peak into play, where intervention rhetoric has capped spot
A return below the 158.49 range top would mark a false break of the pre-CPI range
Bowman's remarks, already underway, and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the read. BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC falls in the Asia session.
The hot US core CPI print drove a 45-pip NY-session breakout from the 158.40–158.49 London range, clearing the asian high at 158.51. Price was rejected twice at the 158.95 session high, just under the 159.00 round number, and is now holding the 158.77 pullback low. RSI(14) has cooled to ~64 from the post-release spike.
Support: 158.77, 158.72, 158.51
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT, minutes away, could materially shift this read; Beige Book follows at 18:00 GMT
An M15 close above the 158.95 session high brings the 159.00 round number into play, the September peak where MoF intervention rhetoric has surfaced
A break below the 158.72 post-cpi low exposes the 38.2–50% fib of the CPI leg near 158.74–158.67
Loss of the asian high at 158.51 would unwind the CPI breakout
London range break higher; twin highs at 158.95 capping, pullback to 158.81.
The hot core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke USD/JPY out of the 158.40–158.49 London range, with the London high left well behind. The pair stalled at twin highs at 158.95, just under the 159.00 round number. The 14:00 GMT rejection bar has price sitting on 158.81, RSI(14) easing to ~68. The post-cpi low at 158.72 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 158.81, 158.72, 158.49
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.81 rejection low brings the 158.72 post-cpi low and 38.2% fib into play
Failure to hold 158.72 opens a deeper retrace toward the 158.49 london high
Acceptance above the 158.95 twin highs puts the 159.00 round number in play, where MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric risk sits
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 159.00 · RSI 72 · price 158.908
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 45-pip impulse through the Asian high at 158.51 and the London range, extending the CPI leg off the 158.11 Asian low. Price is compressing in a 158.84–158.95 band just under the session high and the 159.00 September peak, with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 158.723, 158.51
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above 159.00/159.05 (sept peak) extends the breakout; rejection there keeps the consolidation intact
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Any MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric near 159.00 risks a sharp reversal of the CPI leg
Close below the 158.72 cpi pullback low weakens the breakout; loss of the 158.51 asian high returns price to the pre-CPI range
Breakout above pre-CPI range, tight hold under CPI high.
The hot US core CPI drove a 45-pip impulse out of the 158.40–158.49 pre-CPI range and through the 158.51 Asian high. Early NY session has since held a tight consolidation just under the 158.946 CPI high, with RSI(14) near 84 and the 159.00 psych figure overhead, where yen-intervention risk is flagged.
Support: 158.84, 158.723, 158.513
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.84 pullback low breaks the tight consolidation; the 158.723 post-CPI low is the deeper test
Acceptance above the 158.946 CPI high and 159.00 psych extends the breakout; MoF or verbal FX warnings could trigger a sharp two-way reversal
Slipping back under the 158.51 Asian high, near the 50% retrace of the Asian low–CPI high move, would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-CPI leg · RSI 79 · price 158.879
Range break above Asian high, consolidating below session high.
Hot US core CPI lifted USD/JPY out of the 158.40–158.49 London range and through the 158.51 Asian high. Early NY hours printed a 158.95 session high. RSI(14) is near 79 after the impulse, and price is holding above the 158.72 post-CPI low, which sits close to the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 158.72, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.72 post-cpi low exposes the 50–61.8% fib of the CPI leg at 158.67–158.61
Loss of the 158.51 asian high puts price back inside the pre-CPI range, with the 158.40 pre-cpi low below
Break of the 158.95 session high brings 159.00 and the 159.05 upper band into view; intervention headlines are a risk into 159–160
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) launched USD/JPY about 45 pips out of the 158.40–158.49 London range. The move cleared the 158.51 Asian high and printed a 158.90 session high. RSI(14) sits near 79 after the impulse, and the first dip held at the 158.72 post-CPI low.
Support: 158.723, 158.647, 158.513
Resistance: 158.896, 159.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 158.72 post-CPI low exposes the fib 50% at 158.65, with the 158.51 Asian high below that
Rejection at the 158.90 session high or the 159.00 round number would mark the first stall of NY hours
An M15 close back inside the 158.40–158.51 range turns the breakout into a false break
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Breakout above London range top, fresh window highs.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) drove a 45-pip breakout bar at 12:30 GMT out of the 158.40–158.49 London range and through the 158.75 Monday high. Price is pressing a fresh session high at 158.87 early in the NY session with RSI(14) near 84. The 158.72 CPI bar low is the first intraday pivot, and the 50% fib of the Asian-low rally sits on the 158.50 range top.
Support: 158.75, 158.72, 158.50
Resistance: 158.87, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.72 CPI bar low and the 158.75 Monday high turns the breakout into a retest of the 158.50 range top
Loss of 158.50 range top would mark the CPI move as a false break
159.00 round number and the 159.05 upper band are the next caps; intervention rhetoric near 159–160 could produce rejection
RSI(14) above 80 leaves the impulse stretched; a stall at the session high would show momentum fading
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Breakout above the London range and Asian high; now pressing session highs.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/JPY 45 pips out of the 158.40–158.49 London range. The move cleared the Asian high at 158.51 and the 158.75 Monday high, and price is printing a fresh session high at 158.87 early in the NY session. RSI(14) near 85 is stretched after the impulse, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 7.6 pips.
Support: 158.75, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.866, 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.75 Monday high and the 158.72 post-CPI low would signal the CPI pop fading. The 38.2% fib of the CPI leg sits at 158.69.
A return inside the Asian range below the 158.51 Asian high invalidates the breakout read. The 158.40 CPI origin is the next level below.
The 159.00 round number and the 159.05 range top are where the digest flags intervention resistance capping follow-through.
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could shift this read.
Higher lows from 158.11; London range 158.40–158.49 broken higher.
The US CPI release bar lifted USD/JPY 29 pips out of the 158.40–158.49 London range and through the 158.51 asian high, which sits on the 200-day SMA zone near 158.50. Price is pressing toward the 158.75 monday high, with RSI(14) near 78 and the rising support from the 158.11 Asia-session low still intact beneath.
Support: 158.51, 158.40, 158.25
Resistance: 158.75, 159.05
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds above the 158.51 asian high keeps the breakout read intact; the 38.2% fib of the 158.11–158.69 leg sits near 158.47
A close back below the 158.40 london low turns the CPI spike into a false break
Approach to the 158.75 monday high and 159.05 range top is where intervention chatter could cap the move
Failure of the rising sup line (about 158.25 by the CPI bar) breaks the higher-low chain
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the post-CPI read
12:31 UTC
Intraday upswing from the Asian low, flat into CPI · RSI 55 · price 158.441
Higher lows since 04:30 GMT; tight 158.40–158.49 box under the Asian high.
London extended the rebound from the 158.11 Asian low, which followed the Tokyo-hours BoJ headline spike and sell-off. Price climbed off the 158.21 higher low to a 158.49 London high and has compressed in a 158.40 range low to 158.49 box since 08:00 GMT, just under the 158.51 Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, which understates risk with US CPI landing at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 158.40, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.49, 158.51
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM consensus 0.2%) lands on the current bar and is likely to resolve the 158.40–158.49 box
M15 close above the 158.51 Asian high breaks the London consolidation to the upside
Close below the 158.40 range low and the rising trendline exposes the 158.21 higher low, then the 158.11 Asian low
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend the post-CPI move
Tight range 158.40–158.49 under the Asian high, higher lows since London open.
Asia spiked to the 158.513 Asian high on the BoJ no-October-hike report, then reversed to the 158.112 Asian low. London retraced the drop with higher lows off the 158.205 London low, and price has since stalled in a 9-pip box between the 158.40 range low and the 158.487 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR at about 4.5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.40, 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.487, 158.513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT lands within the next bar; core MoM vs 0.2% could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 158.513 Asian high clears the Asian range top
Break below the 158.40 range low and the London trendline exposes the 158.205 London low
Loss of 158.205 reopens the 158.112 Asian low
Fed Chair Warsh speech later today could shift the post-CPI read
12:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 59 · price 158.443
London higher-low chain into a tight range below the Asian high.
London lifted the pair off the 158.21 London low and recovered the whole Asian slide to the 158.11 Asian low as US yields firmed. Since then it has compressed into a 158.40–158.49 range, capped by the session high just under the 158.51 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 59 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the market is quiet into the US CPI release.
Support: 158.40, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.49, 158.51
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the likely trigger to break the 158.40–158.49 consolidation; a close above the 158.51 Asian high clears the 24h ceiling
A close below the 158.40 pullback low breaks the London rally trendline and exposes the 158.21 London low
A soft CPI that pushes price back through the 158.21 London low puts the 158.11 Asian low in play
Japanese FX-intervention rhetoric as price approaches 159 could cap any extension above the session high
Higher lows through London, capped under Asian high.
London retraced the whole Asia-session slide from the 158.513 Asian high to the 158.112 asia low, stepping up from the 158.205 london low on a rising trendline. Price is now compressing between the 158.40 consol low and the 158.487 session high into US CPI, with ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 158.40, 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.487, 158.513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, under an hour away, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.513 Asian high breaks the 24h range top
Loss of the 158.40 consol low and the London trendline turns the read to range
Failure to hold the 158.205 london low reopens the 158.112 asia low
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend since the Asia low, stalling under the highs · RSI 66 · price 158.464
Higher lows through London, now compressing in a 158.40–158.48 band below the Asia high.
Asia faded from 158.51 to a 158.11 low on softer yields and Williams' dovish tone. London rebuilt from there, putting in a higher low at 158.21 and capping at a 158.48 session high three times. Price is now coiling in a tight 158.40 range low to 158.48 band just under the Asia high ahead of US CPI, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 158.40, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 1h out, with core MoM against the 0.2% forecast as the swing factor, likely sets the next leg
An M15 close above the 158.51 Asia high breaks the top of the overnight range
A loss of the 158.40 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.34 and the rising trendline
A break of the 158.21 higher low undoes the London HL chain and reopens the 158.11 Asia low
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling · RSI 64 · price 158.435
Higher lows from 158.11; compressing below the Asian high.
The early-Asia spike to 158.51 on the BoJ report faded to a 158.11 Asian low. London then held a double bottom at the 158.205/158.21 london low and lifted to the 158.48 london high. Price is now compressing between the 158.40 consol low and 158.48, still inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) near 64 and US CPI due at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 158.40, 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.48, 158.513
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.51 asian high breaks the Asian range and extends the London higher-high chain
A break of the 158.40 consol low exposes the 50% london leg fib near 158.30 and the london trendline
Failure to hold the 158.205 london low voids the double bottom and puts the 158.11 asian low back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 14:55 GMT
11:01 UTC
London leg higher, momentum stalling · RSI 58 · price 158.412
Higher lows from 158.21, capped below the Asian high; still inside the Asian range.
London lifted USD/JPY from the 158.21 London low to a 158.48 London high. That stays short of the 158.51 Asian high, so the 158.11–158.51 Asian range is intact. Price is now compressing between 158.40 and 158.48 late in London, with RSI(14) cooled to 58 as the dollar drifts into US CPI.
Support: 158.40, 158.343, 158.205
Resistance: 158.48, 158.513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is likely to decide the break of the 158.40–158.48 coil
M15 close above the 158.51 Asian high breaks the range and the lower-highs line from the Asia session
Loss of the 158.40 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 158.34, then the 158.21 London low
10:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under range top · RSI 61 · price 158.435
Higher lows from 158.11 Asian low, capped by the 158.46–158.51 zone.
London extended the bounce from the 158.11 Asian low through a 158.205 higher low and is consolidating just under the 158.48 London high. The 158.46–158.51 zone has capped price in NY, Asia and now London, with the 158.51 Asian high as the range top. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 5 pips, so there is no stretch into the CPI release.
Support: 158.405, 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.48, 158.513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Bowman at 14:55 GMT follows
M15 close above the 158.51 asian high breaks a cap that held in NY, Asia and London
Loss of the 158.405 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 158.205 higher low
Break below the 158.11 asian low turns the session structure to lower lows
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 66 · price 158.454
Higher lows since 05:00 UTC, compressing 158.40–158.48 in late London morning.
London built rising lows off the 158.21 London low, which formed around the open, and climbed to a 158.48 session high. The rally stalled just under the 158.51 Asian high, where the BoJ-headline spike was capped. Price is now compressing above the 158.405 pullback low ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 158.405, 158.34, 158.205
Resistance: 158.48, 158.513
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.51 Asian high would end the cap on this leg.
A break of the 158.405 pullback low would put the fib 38.2 at 158.34 and the rising lows trendline in play.
Failure back through the 158.21 London low would expose the 158.11 Asia low and negate the higher-low chain.
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~5 pips into the release.
Higher lows from 158.112 Asian low, London pressing the Asian high.
London built a higher-low chain off the 158.21 higher low into a 158.48 session high, now retesting the 158.513 Asian high as US yields underpin the pair while the yen lags. Momentum is cooling, with RSI(14) near 64. Shallow dips are holding at the 158.405 pullback low.
Support: 158.405, 158.21, 158.112
Resistance: 158.48, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.513 asian high breaks the overnight range
Failure to hold 158.405 pullback low turns the London leg into a range below the Asian high
Break of the 158.21 higher low and the trendline negates the London leg; 158.112 asian low is next
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 158.21 through London, capped below Asian high.
London has built a higher-low chain off a double btm at 158.21. That leg lifted USDJPY to a 158.48 session high, just under the 158.51 Asian high where the Asia-session rally stalled, as firmer US yields kept the pair bid into CPI. RSI(14) ~63 and ATR ~6 pips show the London leg is slowing rather than stretched.
Support: 158.34, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand well beyond 6 pips around the release
An M15 close above the 158.51 asian high breaks the overnight range top
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 158.34 and the rising lows line puts the 158.21 double btm back in play
A break of the 158.11 asian low negates the London leg entirely
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT could add a second event shift after CPI
09:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 158.463
Higher lows from 158.11 Asian low; testing Asian high at 158.51.
London has carried a steady higher-low climb from the 158.11 Asian low, with the London low at 158.21 holding, to a session high at 158.48, just under the Asian high at 158.51, where supply has capped this window. RSI(14) is near 66 with ATR(14) around 6 pips, and the pair sits in the 158.50 area the digest flags as intervention-sensitive into US CPI.
Support: 158.34, 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 asian high breaks the Asian range top
Failure back below the 38.2% fib at 158.34 and the rising trendline weakens the higher-low chain
Break of the 158.21 london low would put the 158.11 asian low back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 158.437
Higher lows since 158.11, London grinding into the Asian range top.
London built a higher-low chain off the 158.11 Asian low and the 158.21 London low. Price is now stalling just under the 158.48 session high and 158.51 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 61 and supply capping the 158.50 area that JPY intervention talk has made sensitive. Softer USD into CPI has not dented the pair so far.
Support: 158.21, 158.112
Resistance: 158.479, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 Asian high breaks the Asian range top
Rejection at the 158.48 session high followed by a break below the rising trendline shifts the read back to range
Loss of the 158.21 London low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.11 Asian low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 158.11 Asian low, price pressing the top of the Asian range.
London built a double bottom at the 158.21 london low and has climbed steadily since. Price sits just above yesterday's 158.46 prior high and below the 158.51 asian high, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched. Yen softness after the report that the BoJ leans against an October hike underpins the grind, while intervention chatter keeps the 158.50 area sensitive.
Support: 158.46, 158.21
Resistance: 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Slip back below the 158.46 prior high would mark the push as a false break
Loss of the 158.21 london low breaks the rising-low trendline and the double bottom
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, plus any MoF verbal intervention near 158.50–159.00, could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, London leg extending · RSI 67 · price 158.473
Higher lows off 158.112 Asian low, pressing Asian high.
London built a higher-low sequence off the 158.112 Asian low and has cleared yesterday's NY session high at 158.464. RSI(14) is near 67. Price now presses the 158.513 Asian high ahead of US CPI, with the yen still soft after October BoJ hike pricing faded.
Support: 158.464, 158.336, 158.205
Resistance: 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.513 asian high breaks the Asian range top; rejection there keeps the range intact
Slip back below the 158.464 prior high toward the fib 38.2 at 158.336 marks a fade of the London leg
Break below the 158.205 london low violates the higher-low trendline
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and any Japanese FX warnings could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows inside Asian range · RSI 64 · price 158.404
London rebound from 158.21 London low back toward the 158.51 Asian high.
USDJPY bounced off the 158.21 London low after the open. It has retraced more than 61.8% of the Asian drop from 158.51 to 158.11, with lows rising from 158.11 to 158.21. Price sits in the upper half of the Asian range, and the yen stays soft after reports the BoJ leans against an October hike.
Support: 158.21, 158.11
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 Asian high breaks the session range; 158.46 prior high is the first cap
Failure to hold the 158.21 London low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.11 Asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 and 14:55 GMT could materially shift this read
Any Japanese FX warning near 158.50 could trigger a fast yen spike through the 158.21 London low
08:31 UTC
Recovering inside the Asian range, momentum firming · RSI 60 · price 158.355
Higher lows off 158.112, retracing the Asian sell-off.
The Asia push to the 158.513 Asian high met rejection just under the 158.50 200-day SMA zone. The slide that followed bottomed at the 158.112 Asian low as US yields eased. London has since printed higher lows along a rising support line from 158.205, retracing to the 61.8% of the Asian sell-off and pressing the 158.378 London high.
Support: 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.378, 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.378 London high exposes the 158.464 NY high and 158.513 Asian high
Loss of the rising support and the 158.205 London low returns focus to the 158.112 Asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Sideways, rebounding off the Asian low · RSI 59 · price 158.368
Higher lows in London inside the 158.11–158.51 Asian range.
Tokyo was rejected at the 158.51 Asian high near the 200-day SMA, then slid 40 pips to the 158.11 Asian low. London has held a 158.21 london low three times and is back at the 61.8% fib near 158.36, mid-range ahead of US CPI with the yen soft on the BoJ report.
Support: 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.46 prior high and 158.51 asian high breaks the Asian range at the 200-day SMA
Loss of the 158.21 london low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.11 asian low
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asian fade · RSI 54 · price 158.295
Early London range inside Asian range, higher low at 158.205.
Asia ran to the 158.513 Asian high, near the 158.50 area flagged as the 200-day SMA, and was rejected, sliding to the 158.112 Asian low. Early London is compressing between a 158.205 higher low and the 158.354 swing high, near the 50% fib of that drop. Price is flat on EMA50 with ATR around 7 pips, coiled into US CPI.
Support: 158.205, 158.112, 157.83
Resistance: 158.354, 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, core m/m vs 0.2%, could materially shift this read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an early volatility risk
M15 close above the 158.354 swing high exposes the 158.464 prior high and the 158.513 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.205 higher low reopens the 158.112 Asian low; below that, the 157.83 prior low
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 158.236
Lower high at 158.35 after 158.11 session low; early London compressing 158.20–158.35.
Tokyo hours topped at a 158.51 Asian high, then slid to a 158.11 session low as US yields softened into CPI. The bounce was rejected at 158.35, near the 61.8% retrace, leaving a lower high. Early London is compressing between the 158.20 London low and that lower high, with RSI(14) mid-40s and price under both EMAs.
Support: 158.205, 158.112
Resistance: 158.354, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.51 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.20 London low exposes the 158.11 session low
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core m/m vs 0.2%) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend, stalling into London · RSI 53 · price 158.281
Lower highs off Asian high; 158.11–158.35 intraday range.
Asian session faded from the 158.513 Asian high to a 158.112 Asian low as US yields softened, carving lower highs under a descending trendline. Early London is rotating inside a 158.205 swing low to 158.354 swing high band near the 38.2–50% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 158.205, 158.112, 158.00
Resistance: 158.354, 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.354 swing high and descending trendline reopens the 158.464 prior high and 158.513 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.205 swing low exposes the 158.112 Asian low and the 158.00 round number
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
Lower high at 158.35 inside the 158.11–158.51 Asian range.
London open finds USDJPY in the lower half of the 158.11–158.51 Asian range. The Asian high was rejected just above the 158.50 200-DMA flagged in the JPY digest, and the later bounce stalled at 158.35, the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop, leaving a chain of lower highs. RSI(14) sits mid-40s and ATR runs about 6.6 pips as the pair waits on US CPI.
Support: 158.112, 158.00, 157.829
Resistance: 158.354, 158.513
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 158.11 exposes the 158.00 psych handle and the prior-day low at 157.83
M15 close above the 158.35 lower high voids the lower-highs read, with the 158.51 asian high next above
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core f/c 0.2% MoM, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
Lower highs from 158.51, higher low at 158.23, inside the Asian range.
Asia briefly cleared yesterday's 158.46 prior high, then failed at 158.51, a false break. The Asian high gave way to a slide to the 158.11 Asian low. The 05:15 UTC bounce stalled at the 158.35 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the Asian decline fib. Price is now coiling between that level and the 158.23 higher low into the London open, with pre-CPI caution keeping bars tight.
Support: 158.228, 158.112, 157.829
Resistance: 158.354, 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.23 higher low reopens the 158.11 Asian low
Acceptance above the 158.35 bounce high and the 61.8% fib exposes the 158.46 prior high and the 158.51 Asian high
Loss of 158.11 exposes yesterday's 157.83 prior low
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Two-way range, Asia lower high in place · RSI 54 · price 158.307
Asia range 158.11–158.51; rebound stalling at 50% retrace.
The early-Asia push to the 158.51 Asia high was rejected and unwound to the 158.11 Asia low. A sharp 05:15 UTC rebound has stalled at the 50% retrace near 158.31, just under the 158.33 lower high, with price barely above flat EMAs ahead of London open. The yen stays soft on faded October BoJ hike bets, and the pair remains inside yesterday's 157.83 prior low to 158.51 span into US CPI.
Support: 158.228, 158.112, 157.829
Resistance: 158.334, 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.33 lower high opens the ny high at 158.46 and the asia high at 158.51
Failure to hold the 158.23 pullback low exposes the 158.11 asia low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, plus Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
A break of the 157.83 prior low would mark a fresh range break lower
Asian range 158.11–158.51; lower highs broken, 50% retracement capping.
Asia rejected the 158.51 session high and sold off in a lower-high/lower-low down-leg to the 158.11 Asian low. A sharp bounce cleared the falling trendline but stalled at the 158.33 bounce high, near the 50% retracement. Price is slipping back under EMA20 into London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.11 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 158.00 round number, then yesterday's 157.83 prior low from the BoJ-report whipsaw
Clearing the 158.33 bounce high and the 158.42 lower high reopens the 158.51 session high
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
Lower highs off the Asian high, descending trendline broken, price at 50% fib.
Asia session showed a rejection at the 158.51 asian high near the 200-day SMA and faded about 40 pips to the 158.11 asian low on a run of lower highs. A late-Asia bounce broke the descending trendline and left price at 158.32 at the 50% fib ahead of London open, with RSI neutral near 51.
Support: 158.28, 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core is forecast at 0.2% m/m.
An M15 close above the 158.42 lower high reopens the 158.51 asian high.
Losing the ema20 near 158.28 puts the trendline breakout at risk of a false break.
A break of the 158.11 asian low exposes the prior low at 157.83, yesterday's BoJ-report spike low.
05:46 UTC
Asia downtrend, bounce off session low · RSI 46 · price 158.299
Lower highs from 158.51 Asia high; latest bar broke the descending line.
Late Asia session: USDJPY faded from the 158.51 Asia high to a 158.11 Asia low through a lower-high chain, with the yen still soft as October BoJ hike bets fade. The latest 12-pip bar broke the Asia downtrend line and is testing the 50% retracement near 158.31, with the 61.8% fib at 158.36 just above.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.36, 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.11 Asia low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 157.83 prior low
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 158.36 turns focus to the 158.42 lower high and 158.51 Asia high
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
Range is narrow ahead of London open, so ATR near 6.5 pips may expand once London opens
05:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia high · RSI 29 · price 158.16
LH/LL chain from 158.51, trading below Tuesday's NY range.
Rejection at the 158.51 Asian high, just above the 158.50 200-day SMA, started a lower-high chain into a 158.11 swing low, leaving price below Tuesday's 158.25–158.40 NY range late in the Asia session. RSI(14) near 29 is close to oversold with 158.00 round number below, ahead of today's US CPI and Bowman.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.25, 158.38, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.25 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Break of the 158.00 round number exposes Tuesday's 157.83 prior low from the London whipsaw
Re-entry into the 158.38 NY range top shifts the read back to range
Bowman 09:40 GMT and US CPI 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high, testing prior lows.
The early-Tokyo push to the 158.51 Asia high was rejected below the 158.50 area. Price has since unwound the whole Asian range and yesterday's 158.30–158.40 NY range in a lower-high/lower-low chain, with the lower high at 158.27 lining up with the 38.2% fib. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price sits on yesterday's 158.11 prior lows with RSI(14) near 30, as the dollar pullback into CPI weighs.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.11 prior lows extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number and yesterday's 157.83 whipsaw low
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib, opening the 158.40 NY range
Reclaiming the 158.51 Asia high would negate the session's rejection read
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Warsh later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.51 session high.
Asia session pushed through yesterday's 158.46 prior high to a 158.51 session high, then reversed. The false break turned into a 37-pip slide to a 158.14 session low, a move in line with the digest's pre-CPI caution and softer US yields. Price sits below EMA20/50 into London open with RSI(14) near 38, not stretched.
Support: 158.14, 158.01, 157.83
Resistance: 158.30, 158.46, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.30 lower high (38.2% of the Asia drop) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 158.46 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 158.14 session low exposes the 158.01 swing low, then the 157.83 spike low from yesterday's whipsaw
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and the Warsh speech could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.51 Asia high.
Late in the Asia session, the 158.51 Asia high was rejected twice. Since then price has printed a lower-high/lower-low chain to a 158.14 session low, giving back most of yesterday's NY rally as pre-CPI caution and softer yields weigh. RSI(14) sits near 30 with price below both EMAs, and the descending line from the Asia high caps at the 158.27 lower high.
Support: 158.141, 158.10, 157.83
Resistance: 158.268, 158.327, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the descending line and the lower-high chain
Fib 50% at 158.33 is the retracement level to watch on any rebound into London open
Failure to hold the 158.14 session low exposes the 158.10 prior base, then the 157.83 london low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 34 · price 158.223
Asia high rejected, lower highs and lower lows into late Asia, back below NY range low.
The Asia high at 158.51 was rejected twice in the first hour of Asia. Price has since printed a lower high at 158.42 and slipped back under the 158.30 NY range low, as the pre-CPI USD pullback weighs. The session low at 158.16 is holding for now with RSI(14) near 34, while yesterday's spike low at 157.83 marks the floor of the BoJ-headline whipsaw.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.30, 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.30 ny range low (38.2% fib zone) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Break of the 158.16 session low exposes the 158.00 round number
London open within ~3h typically sets the session range; Bowman at 09:40 GMT can move it
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft core print points back toward the 157.83 spike low
Reclaim of the 158.51 asia high would void the rejection read
04:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 158.236
Failed push above prior high, then a break of the late-NY range low.
At the Tokyo open, Asia pushed above yesterday's 158.46 high to a 158.51 asia high and failed. The lower highs since then have taken out the 158.26 NY low and printed a 158.16 asia low. Late in the Asia session, RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs, with the 158.26 NY low now overhead into London open ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.34, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.26 NY low puts price back inside yesterday's late-NY range and weakens the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 158.34 fib 50% of the Asia leg would break the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 158.16 asia low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.83 prior low from yesterday's whipsaw
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend off the Asian high · RSI 31 · price 158.197
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.51 rejection, now below the overnight range.
The Asia session stalled at the 158.51 asian high, just under the 158.50 200-DMA zone flagged in the digest. Since then the pair has printed a lower-high sequence along the descending trendline. It broke the 158.28 range floor of the quiet overnight range and is now near 158.20, mid-way through the fib retracement of the London low-to-Asian high move, with RSI(14) near 31 and price under both EMAs. Next structure below is the 158.10 swing low from NY hours, then the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.10, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.28, 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.28 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
A break through the descending trendline and the 158.42 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.83 London low from yesterday's spike
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft core print is the digest's path below 158.00
03:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 40 · price 158.245
Asian high rejected, overnight base broken lower.
Late in the Asia session, the push above yesterday's NY high to the 158.51 asian high was rejected beneath the ~158.50 200-DMA cap flagged in the digest. Price has since printed a lower high at 158.42 and slipped through the 158.28–158.30 overnight broken base to a 158.22 session low, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 158.22, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.22 session low exposes the 158.10 prior base and the 158.00 psych level
M15 close back above the 158.30 broken base and the 158.42 lower high invalidates the pullback read
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft print puts 158.00 in focus, a hot one puts the 158.51 asian high back in play
03:16 UTC
Intraday range, fading from session high · RSI 45 · price 158.294
Lower highs since 158.51 rejection, testing asian low.
Asia session lifted USDJPY to a 158.51 session high, just above the 158.50 cap flagged in the JPY digest. Supply capped it there, and price has since given back the whole leg to the 158.28 asian low via a 158.42 lower high. The NY low at 158.25 marks the floor of the quiet late-NY range, with RSI(14) ~44 and ATR near 6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.28, 158.25, 157.83
Resistance: 158.42, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 ny low breaks the late-NY range floor and exposes 158.00 and the 157.83 day low from the BoJ-report whipsaw
Close back above the 158.42 lower high negates the lower-high sequence off the session high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is an earlier risk
Intervention headlines near the 158.51 session high would reinforce the rejection there
Asia pushed above the NY high to 158.51, then pulled back to 158.35; price now mid-range.
After yesterday's London whipsaw to 157.83 on the BoJ hike-odds report, NY rebuilt to 158.46. Asia then briefly cleared the ny high to a 158.51 session high and was rejected at 158.50. The pullback low at 158.35 is holding near the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 158.352, 158.254
Resistance: 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 session high breaks the cap at 158.50
Failure to hold the 158.35 pullback low exposes the late ny low at 158.25
Price back below the ny high at 158.46 keeps the Asia push read as a false break
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asia false break above NY high, pullback toward range middle.
Asia session pushed through the NY high at 158.46 to a session high at 158.51 but could not hold it. Price then retraced about 74% of the leg off the 158.30 Asia low, to a pullback low at 158.35. Price sits just above EMA20 inside the 158.25–158.51 band built after Tuesday's BoJ-report whipsaw to 157.83, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and the asia leg fib showing the deep retrace.
Support: 158.352, 158.295, 158.254
Resistance: 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.51 session high negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 158.35 pullback low exposes the 158.30 Asia low and the 158.25 NY low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read: a hot print tests the 158.50 cap, a soft print reopens 158.00
Bowman remarks at 09:40 UTC during London hours are a secondary risk to the range
False break above prior high, pulling back inside 158.25–158.51 range.
Asia session pushed through Tuesday's 158.46 prior high to a 158.51 session high. It was rejected near 158.50 and has slipped back to the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib around 158.38, with RSI(14) cooling to 55. Tuesday's BoJ-report whipsaw to 157.83 is fully recovered, and the 158.25 swing low and rising trendline still underpin the range.
Support: 158.367, 158.254, 158.00
Resistance: 158.464, 158.513
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.51 session high negates the false break read
Break of the 158.37 pullback low exposes the rising trendline and 158.25 swing low
Loss of 158.25 reopens the 158.00 round number
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the NY session, Asian range broken higher, rejection at 158.51.
Early Asia session lifted through the 158.37 breakout pt and tagged a 158.51 session high twice. The move stalled at the 158.50 round number, a level that has capped the recovery since yesterday's BoJ-report whipsaw to 157.83. Price has slipped back under the 158.46 prior high with RSI(14) easing to about 61, while higher lows from the 158.25 ny low to the 158.30 asian low keep the trendline intact.
Support: 158.37, 158.30, 158.25
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 session high ends the stall at the 158.50 round number
A close back below the 158.37 breakout pt reopens the 158.30 asian low
A break of the trendline and the 158.25 ny low (38.2% fib of the whipsaw leg) ends the higher-low chain
Bowman at 09:40 UTC, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, testing the 158.50 cap · RSI 71 · price 158.483
Asia session breakout above Tuesday's NY high, higher lows since 00:00 UTC.
The Asia session leg off the 158.295 asia low cleared Tuesday's NY prior high at 158.464 and printed a 158.513 session high. That puts price inside the 158.50 zone, which the digest flags as repeatedly capped on intervention risk. RSI(14) near 71 and the move retraces Tuesday's BoJ-report whipsaw to 157.829 in full.
Support: 158.464, 158.295
Resistance: 158.513
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.464 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.513 session high extends the breakout through the 158.50 cap
Loss of the 158.295 asia low unwinds the asia leg fib and returns price to Tuesday's range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric near 158.50 could trigger an abrupt rejection
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 158.50 · RSI 74 · price 158.471
Higher lows off 157.83; Asia breaking above NY range top.
Asia session lifted off the 158.295 asian low and cleared the 158.464 prior high from the NY range. It set a session high at 158.513 into the 158.50 round number that the digest flags as an intervention-sensitive cap. The pair has retraced the full London-open whipsaw to 157.83 on the BoJ hike report, with rising lows holding from the 158.254 NY low and RSI(14) at 74.
Support: 158.464, 158.295, 158.254
Resistance: 158.513
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above the 158.513 session high extend the breakout through 158.50
Slip back below the 158.464 prior high flags a false break and returns price to the 158.30–158.46 NY range
Loss of the rising lows line near 158.30, then the 158.254 NY low, breaks the higher-low chain
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and any MoF intervention rhetoric near 158.50 could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Rising lows, pressing range top · RSI 71 · price 158.452
158.25–158.46 range since NY recovery; Asia retesting the top.
Asia session lifted USD/JPY off the 158.30 asian low to retest the NY session high at 158.46, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR(14) around 4 pips. Rising lows have held since the BoJ-report whipsaw low at 157.83, but the 158.50 round number, flagged by intervention risk, still caps the range.
Support: 158.295, 158.254, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 round number breaks the range ceiling in place since the whipsaw recovery
Loss of the 158.30 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 158.25 swing low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is an earlier risk
Asia break above overnight range, higher lows from 158.25.
The Asia session broke out of the 158.30–158.37 overnight range and is now retesting the NY session high at 158.46, with RSI(14) near 73. The pair has fully retraced the BoJ-report whipsaw to 157.83. The NY pullback held the 158.25 swing low, above the 38.2% of the recovery fib. Supply has capped the 158.46–158.50 round number zone so far.
Support: 158.37, 158.30, 158.25
Resistance: 158.46, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.46 session high and 158.50 round number extends the recovery leg
Slip back below 158.37 range top turns the Asia break into a false break
Loss of the 158.30 asian low and rising support line opens the 158.25 swing low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 158.28–158.37 beneath the NY high at 158.464.
Early Asia session is boxed in a 9-pip range between the asian low at 158.28 and the asian high at 158.37. Price is still holding above the 23.6% retracement of yesterday's BoJ-report whipsaw low at 157.829, after the NY high capped at 158.464. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with price compressed into US CPI.
Support: 158.28, 158.254, 158.00
Resistance: 158.372, 158.464, 158.506
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.37 asian high opens a retest of the 158.464 ny high, then the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 158.28 asian low exposes the 158.254 swing low and the 38.2% retracement near 158.22
Below 158.22, the 158.00 psych level is the next reference
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the likely catalyst for a break of this range
MoF or BoJ intervention headlines near the 158.50 prior high could reverse any breakout
00:31 UTC
Recovered from overnight spike low, now flat · RSI 52 · price 158.323
Tight 158.28–158.37 range in early Asia session below NY high.
Yesterday's BoJ-report whipsaw printed 157.83 in the London open before a steady recovery to the 158.464 NY high. Since the NY close the pair has compressed into a ~9-pip range top/range low box at 158.37/158.28, sitting on EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR down to under 4 pips, holding above the fib 38.2 at 158.22.
Support: 158.282, 158.254, 158.221
Resistance: 158.372, 158.464, 158.506
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.37 range top opens the 158.464 NY high, then the 158.506 prior high
Failure at the 158.28 range low exposes the 158.254 NY low and the fib 38.2 near 158.22
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a range break; quiet Asian range expected until then
BoJ/MoF FX headlines near the prior high could cap any push toward 158.50
00:16 UTC
Flat, compressing after rebound · RSI 52 · price 158.334
Lower highs inside a 158.25–158.38 range.
The recovery from the 157.83 London spike low on the BoJ report ran out at the 158.46 session high during NY. Since then price has compressed into a 158.25–158.38 band with lower highs. The current Asia session is still inside its 158.28–158.37 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) about 4 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.282, 158.254, 158.00
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 range top breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 158.46 session high, then the 158.52 24h high
Failure to hold the 158.28 Asian low exposes the 158.25 swing low; below there, the recovery fib 38.2% at 158.22 and 158.00 psych come into view
US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed and Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Flat, compressing after NY fade · RSI 49 · price 158.324
Tight 158.28–158.37 range under lower highs.
The London BoJ-headline spike flushed to 157.83 before the NY rally recovered to the 158.46 NY high, still short of the 158.53 Asia high. Since the 158.25 swing low at 18:00 UTC, price has compressed into a 9-pip range at 158.28–158.37 under a line of lower highs into the Asia session open, with ATR down near 3.6 pips.
Support: 158.28, 158.254, 158.00
Resistance: 158.372, 158.464, 158.529
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.37 range high and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.46 NY high
Loss of the 158.28 range low and 158.25 swing low exposes the 38.2% NY rally fib near 158.22, then the 158.00 round number
Acceptance above the 158.53 Asia high would void the lower-highs read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; core 0.2% MoM is the consensus