Multi-month uptrend from the early-February 152 base, with price holding above EMA(50) on D1 throughout the run to 160. The late-March spike to 160.72 reversed hard to 155.5 the same session, a false break that has capped subsequent rallies; price has since climbed back and is now pinned in a tight 159.40–160.59 band for several weeks. The BoJ's hike to 1.00% passed with muted FX reaction — negative real rates keep the yen soft and 160.70 the line markets associate with intervention risk.
Support: 159.40, 155.50
Resistance: 160.70
What it said to watch
D1 close above 160.70 opens the path toward the 161/162 intervention zone
Failure to hold the 159.40 range floor signals a deeper pullback toward 157
FOMC decision tonight (18:00 UTC) and Japan trade data are near-term catalysts that could shift this read
Four-month uptrend from the early-February 152.27 base, with USDJPY holding well above a rising EMA(50) through the cycle. The well-flagged BoJ hike to 1.00% drew almost no yen response, leaving price pinned just under the 160.70 pivot after a tight multi-session consolidation. Negative real rates keep the structure firm into Wednesday's FOMC, the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 159.40
Resistance: 160.70
What it said to watch
D1 close above 160.70 opens the path to the 161/162 intervention-risk zone
Loss of 159.40 range low would mark the first lower-low in weeks
US Retail Sales + FOMC (18:00 UTC Wed) could materially reset this read