Higher lows intact, pullback range under the 158.05 week high.
USDJPY climbed through the whole week from 154.40, accelerating into Friday's NY session after the BoJ's dovish 1.25% delivery pushed the pair to the 158.05 week high, where an immediate rejection unwound roughly 145 pips. That sell-off stalled at the 156.60 friday low and the thin Asia open has reclaimed the ema20 at 156.96, leaving price mid-way in the 156.60–157.50 pullback. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s from near-overbought while the sequence of higher lows off Monday's open still holds.
Support: 156.96, 156.60, 156.03
Resistance: 157.50, 158.05
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 157.50 breakdown area puts the 158.05 week high back in play
Loss of the 156.60 friday low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 156.03 prior range
Failure to hold the ema20 on this reclaim attempt keeps the pullback structure dominant
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's only high-impact US data and could reset this read
Higher lows into 158.05 week high, then sharp give-back and flat consolidation.
The week's dominant move came in one leg: the post-BoJ squeeze lifted price out of the 154.90-155.40 base and ran through 157.50 to a 158.05 week high during Friday's NY session, the dovish 1.25% delivery unwinding crowded hawkish-BoJ pricing. That spike was rejected immediately — roughly 130 pips were handed back into the Friday close, leaving price parked at 156.60-156.90 and now pinned just under EMA(20) at 156.93 while still holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cycled from near 70 at the highs back to the mid-40s, and the thin Sunday-open bars have added nothing to the structure.
Support: 156.60, 156.13
Resistance: 156.93, 157.50, 158.05
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the EMA20 at 156.93 would re-open 157.50 prior high and the 158.05 week high
Loss of the 156.60 friday low confirms a lower low and exposes the 156.13 pre-break shelf
Price is sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse — acceptance below it weakens the continuation read
Fed's Goolsbee Mon 10:30 UTC and Fed October pricing are the main drivers on a thin JPY docket
MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor if the 158.05 high is cleared toward 160
Higher highs/higher lows intact; corrective pullback from 158.05 week high.
The week's dominant move came in one shot: the dovishly-delivered BoJ hike to 1.25% on Friday's Asia-into-London hours took the pair out of the 154.80–155.40 base and on to a 158.05 week high, before NY hours gave back roughly 120 pips. Price now sits just under the 156.96 ema20 after four quiet bars basing on the 156.60 friday low, with the 156.48 ema50 still beneath the market and RSI(14) back to the mid-40s from overbought. The 157.50 prior high is the nearest supply shelf that capped the retracement attempt.
Support: 156.60, 156.48, 155.53
Resistance: 156.96, 157.50, 158.05
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 156.96 ema20 would put the 157.50 prior high and then the 158.05 week high back in focus
Loss of the 156.60 friday low exposes the 156.48 ema50, with the 155.53 swing low the next structural reference
Thin Japanese docket into the new week — Fed's Goolsbee Mon 10:30 UTC is the first event risk to this read
A lower high beneath 157.50 followed by a break of 156.60 would end the higher-lows sequence