21:04 UTC
Downtrend since the 163.99 high, counter-trend squeeze underway · RSI 43 · price 156.867
Lower highs 163.99 > 160.39 > 158.05 with a higher low at 154.83 after the 152.89 cycle low.
The dominant structure remains the decline off the 163.99 high, with the 152.89 cycle low printed three weeks ago and a chain of lower highs since. The last five sessions have produced a sharp counter-trend rally — accelerated by Friday's dovishly delivered BoJ hike to 1.25% against a hawkish Fed dot path — that reclaimed EMA20 near 156.51 but was capped at 158.05, just under the falling EMA50 at 158.10, leaving a long upper wick. RSI has recovered from the low-30s to the mid-40s, consistent with a rebound inside a downtrend rather than a completed trend change.
Support: 156.51, 154.83, 152.89
Resistance: 158.10, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 158.10 ema50 would break the lower-high sequence and put the 160.39 prior high, and the 160 psychological area where intervention commentary has been flagged, back in play
- Failure to hold 156.51 ema20 and then 154.83 swing low would resume the leg toward the 152.89 cycle low
- US flash PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the week's only high-impact US print and could materially shift this read
- Thin Japanese data docket leaves the pair driven by Fed October pricing