21:02 UTC
Sideways, inside a lower-high structure since July · RSI 58 · price 158.526
Four-week range 157.50–159.05 capped below the 160.39 lower high.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the late-July high at 163.99, with the early-September selloff from the 160.39 lower high to 152.89 marking the window low. The rebound reached the 78.6% level of that Sept selloff fib before stalling at the 159.03 range top. Price has since held a 157.50–159.05 range for roughly four weeks, sitting just above a flattening EMA(50). The range floor aligns with the 61.8% retracement. JPY carry demand underpins the pair, while intervention fear near 159–160 has capped each weekly push higher.
Support: 157.50, 156.375, 152.886
Resistance: 159.032, 160.391, 163.985
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top exposes the 160.39 lower high and the 160 intervention zone
- A reclaim of the 160.39 lower high would break the lower-high chain and put the July high at 163.99 back in view
- Daily close below the 157.50 range floor (61.8% fib) reopens the 156.38 swing low
- Failure to hold the 156.38 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the Sept low at 152.89
- Japan core CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) and US PMIs Fri could resolve the range; MoF jawboning near 159–160 would mark the cap