Rejection at 158.34, higher low at 158.05; compressing 158.05–158.17 in early Asia.
London broke the Asian low and set a 157.84 day low before the NY rally. The late spike to the 158.34 spike high was rejected as Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks pulled USD/JPY back toward 158.00. Early Asia is compressing between the 158.05 rollover low and the 158.17 session high, inside the 38.2–61.8% fib retrace of the NY rally, with price flat at EMA20.
Support: 158.047, 158.03, 157.837
Resistance: 158.17, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.05 rollover low exposes the 61.8% fib at 158.03 and then the 157.84 day low
M15 close above the 158.17 session high reopens the 158.34 spike high and the 158.39 Asian high
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could reset the intraday range
23:31 UTC
Sideways, contracting after NY fade · RSI 45 · price 158.128
Lower highs from 158.34 against higher lows above 157.84; early Asia session inside a tight band.
NY's push to the 158.34 ny high was rejected. Hawkish Himino BoJ remarks fed the fade to the 158.05 rollover low, the 61.8% retrace of the 157.84–158.34 leg. Early Asia trade is pinned just under EMA20 at 158.13, with the 158.17 asia high capping on a lower-highs line.
Support: 158.047, 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.17, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 rollover low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.02 ny low.
Close above the 158.17 asia high breaks the lower-highs line; 158.34 ny high and the 158.39 prior high sit above.
Loss of the 157.84 day low would end the recovery structure off the London-NY transition low.
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
23:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after NY rebound · RSI 54 · price 158.142
Lower high at 158.34 under 158.39; post-rollover compression 158.05–158.17.
USDJPY slid from the 158.39 day high in Tokyo hours on Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks and bottomed at the 157.84 day low in London. NY lifted it to a 158.34 spike high (ny spike hi) that was rejected. Price now sits at 158.14, near the 38.2% fib of that rebound, boxed between the 158.05 rollover low and the 158.17 overnight high in thin pre-Tokyo trade, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 158.047, 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.17, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 overnight high reopens the 158.34 ny spike high
Failure to hold the 158.05 rollover low exposes the 158.016 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 158.03
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows 157.84 / 158.02 / 158.05 under a 158.17 range cap.
Early Asia is grinding up from the 158.05 rollover low and is now pressing the 158.17 range cap, at the 38.2% retrace of the late-NY drop from the 158.34 spike high. The yen bid that followed Himino's hawkish remarks carried price to a 157.84 day low during London. Higher lows since then at the 158.02 swing low and 158.05 have kept price boxed below 158.34, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 158.05, 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.17, 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 range cap and the 50% retrace near 158.20 opens the NY high at 158.34, then the Asia high at 158.39
Failure to hold the 158.05 rollover low and the 158.02 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 158.00 floor and the 157.84 day low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Recovering off London low, rising lows · RSI 54 · price 158.163
Higher lows off 157.84, capped 158.18–158.34.
London cut through the Asian low to print 157.84 as Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks and a softer USD weighed. NY reclaimed the 158 floor and spiked to the 158.34 NY high, then faded short of the 158.40 cap. The pullback held the 61.8% of the NY leg fib at the 158.05 gap low after rollover, and early Asia is pressing the 158.18 minor high with rising lows intact.
Support: 158.047, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.18, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.18 minor high opens the 158.34 NY high and the 158.39 Asian high
Break of the 158.05 gap low and the rising lows line exposes the 158 floor, then the 157.84 London low
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next range triggers
22:31 UTC
Two-way range, recovering from London low · RSI 51 · price 158.144
157.84–158.34 range; higher low at 158.05 after NY spike rejection.
London broke the 158.00 floor to a 157.84 london low. NY then recovered to 158.34, where the late spike was rejected, consistent with the yen firming on Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD. Early Asia is holding the small rollover gap above the 158.05 rollover low, with price at 158.14 near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib and the 158.20 NY shelf overhead.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.20, 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 NY shelf reopens the 158.34 NY high and the 158.39 Asia high
Loss of the 158.05 rollover low and the rising lows line puts the 158.00 floor back in play
A break of 158.00 exposes the 157.84 london low and the lower edge of the range
Thin liquidity before Tokyo open can exaggerate moves around the rollover low; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next JPY catalyst
Intraday range; late-NY spike rejected, price back mid-range after rollover gap.
The Japan trade-deficit miss set the 158.39 Asia high, then Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD took NY through 158.00 psych to a 157.84 NY low. The late-NY spike to 158.34 was rejected, with the post-spike shelf near 158.21 giving way. The rollover gap left a 158.05 gap low, and price is now near 158.12, around the 50% retrace of the NY low–spike high leg, as the Asia session opens.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.21, 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 gap low and 158.00 psych reopens the 157.84 NY low
Recovery above the 158.21 post-spike shelf brings the 158.34 spike high and 158.39 Asia high back into view
Thin liquidity into the Tokyo open; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this range
22:02 UTC
Flat intraday, faded from late-NY high · RSI 51 · price 158.10
Higher low off 157.84, lower high after 158.34 rejection.
London broke the 158.00 psych level to a 157.84 session low as the softer USD and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks weighed. NY recovered, but a late-NY spike to 158.34 was rejected. The rollover gap left price at 158.10, near the 50% retrace of the NY rally, in thin early-Asia trade between the 158.05 gap low and the 158.13 gap fill, with EMA20/50 just overhead and RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.13, 158.21, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 gap fill puts price back over EMA20/50; a move through the 158.21 swing high reopens the 158.34 spike high
Loss of the 158.05 gap low exposes the 61.8% fib near 158.03 and the 158.00 psych pivot
A break back under 158.00 brings the 157.84 session low into play
US Initial Claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.84–158.39 daily band; lower high at 158.342 vs Asia high, price at mid-range.
USDJPY has held a 157.84–158.39 band for 24h. The London-hours false break below 158.00 to the 157.837 day low was reclaimed in NY. The late-NY spike to 158.342 was rejected and price has faded into the thin post-NY rollover, sitting near the 50–61.8% retracement of the NY leg. Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD keep the pair pinned close to 158.00, with the 158.016 ny swing low the nearest floor.
Support: 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.197, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.016 ny swing low and 158.00 opens a retest of the 157.837 day low
Recovery above the 158.197 london high brings the 158.342 ny spike hi and 158.389 asia high back into view; the lower-high line from the Asia high still caps
Thin Asia session liquidity after the rollover; US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift the range read
21:32 UTC
Intraday range, fading after late rejection · RSI 41 · price 158.073
False break of Asian low reclaimed; lower highs below 158.34 spike.
Post-NY close and thin. London's break of the Asian low ran to a 157.837 day low at the London-NY transition before price reclaimed the range. A late-NY spike high at 158.342 was rejected, and lower highs near 158.21 have walked price back to 158.07, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of that leg, with the 158.016 swing low the nearest floor. Softer USD and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks keep the pair pinned in the 158.00–158.40 band.
Support: 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.213, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.016 swing low and the 158.00 handle exposes the 157.837 day low
M15 close above the 158.21 lower high reopens the 158.342 spike high and the 158.389 Asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled test of the 158.00–158.40 range
21:17 UTC
Sideways, late NY spike faded · RSI 42 · price 158.068
Day range 157.837–158.389, lower high at 158.342, higher low at 158.016.
London-into-NY selling set a 157.837 day low before a NY rebound, and a late spike to the 158.342 spike high was rejected below the 158.389 Asian high, leaving a lower high inside the day range. Price has faded back to 158.07 into the thin rollover, about 54% into the NY rally fib, with the soft USD and Himino's hawkish remarks keeping the 158.00 area in play.
Support: 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.21, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
A break of the 158.016 ny swing low and 158.00 would retrace most of the NY rally and bring the 157.837 day low back into view
A recovery above the 158.21 ny shelf puts the 158.342 spike high and the 158.389 Asian high back in play as the day-range top
Thin rollover liquidity into the Asia session, where AI-sentiment spillover from Meta earnings could jolt the yen
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for the range
Higher lows off 157.84; late NY spike rejected, pulling back into the retrace.
London broke the Asian range low and printed a 157.84 low as Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD supported the yen. NY reclaimed the range, but the late spike to 158.34 was rejected short of the 158.39 Asian high. Price is now drifting between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the 157.84–158.34 leg, with the 158.02 swing low and 158.00 round number below.
Support: 158.016, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
A break of the 158.02 swing low and the 158.00 round number (61.8% retrace) undoes the NY recovery and brings the 157.84 london low back into view
M15 close above the 158.34 spike high reopens a test of the 158.39 asian high
Meta Q3 earnings after the US close could shift AI-driven risk sentiment and yen haven demand into the Asia session
Inside Asian range; higher lows since London low, spike rejected.
Late NY spike to the 158.34 spike high was rejected and price is back at 158.15, on the 38.2% retrace of the rally off the 157.84 session low and still inside the Asian range (158.03–158.39). Higher lows from the session low into the 158.02 swing low are intact. The soft USD tone and Himino's hawkish remarks are keeping the topside capped.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.84 session low
Close above the 158.34 spike high and the 158.39 asian high would mark a break of the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC; Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the larger range-break risk
20:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below NY high · RSI 56 · price 158.171
Higher lows from 157.84, capped at 158.34, tight late-NY consolidation.
London sold through 158.00 to a 157.84 session low as Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD weighed. The NY recovery printed a 158.02 swing low and spiked to the 158.34 NY high, where it was rejected short of the 158.39 Asian high. Late NY is now coiling around 158.17, with the consol top at 158.21 overhead and price sitting on the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline.
Support: 158.15, 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.21, 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib and rising trendline near 158.15 exposes the 158.02 swing low
Loss of 158.00 and the 157.84 session low resumes the London downleg
Close above the 158.21 consol top, then the 158.34 NY high, reopens the 158.39 Asian high
Meta earnings tonight: AI-driven risk-off could lift JPY and pressure the pair
Asian low broken in London, reclaimed in NY; spike high capped below Asian high.
London took out the Asian low at 158.03 on Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD. The slide set a day low at 157.84, double-bottomed near 157.85 during the London-NY transition, then climbed back into the Asian range on a chain of higher lows. A late-NY spike to 158.34 was rejected short of the 158.39 Asian high, and price is now sitting near 158.19, above the pullback low at 158.165.
Support: 158.165, 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.34 spike high puts the 158.39 Asian high back in play
Loss of the 158.165 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.15 and the 158.016 higher low on the trendline
Break below the higher-low trendline and 158.00 reopens the 157.84 day low
Meta earnings tonight: AI-driven risk-off could revive JPY haven demand
20:01 UTC
Rebounding from London low, capped below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 158.19
Higher lows since 157.84; late-NY spike to 158.34 rejected.
London broke the Asian low after Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD, and a double bottom formed at the 157.84 session low. The NY rebound built higher lows at the 158.02 NY low, then a late-NY spike to 158.34 was rejected just shy of the 158.39 Asian high. Price is back at 158.19, holding above the rebound fib's 38.2% near 158.15.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.34, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 Asian high breaks the day's range top
Loss of the 158.02 NY low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 157.84 session low
Repeat rejection at the 158.34 spike high keeps the pair capped inside the 158.00–158.40 band
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the range read
19:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalled below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 158.187
Higher lows from 157.84, sharp rejection at 158.34.
London broke the Asian low at 158.031 and bottomed at the 157.837 london low on Himino's hawkish remarks and soft USD. NY then built higher lows at 157.846 and 158.016 on a rising trendline before a one-bar rejection of the 158.342 ny high. Late NY, price sits at 158.19 above the 158.11 swing low and still under the 158.389 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.112, 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.342 ny high reopens a test of the 158.389 asian high
Loss of the 158.11 swing low puts the higher-low trendline and the 158.016 higher low in play
Break below 158.016 higher low and the 158.00 pivot negates the NY recovery and exposes the 157.837 london low
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for the 158.00–158.40 band
19:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, momentum pausing · RSI 65 · price 158.288
Higher lows from 157.84; late-NY breakout above 158.18 stalling under the Asian high.
The London slide on Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD bottomed at the 157.84 day low at the start of NY. Price then built higher lows and broke the 158.18 breakout lvl late in NY hours. The push stalled at the 158.34 session high, just under the 158.39 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 158.18, 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.18 breakout lvl would turn the move into a false break
M15 close above the 158.39 Asian high clears the session high and puts the 158.50 range top in view
Loss of the 158.02 swing low breaks the NY rising support and higher-low chain, reopening the 157.84 day low
Meta earnings after the US close: AI-led risk-off has been supporting JPY and could shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 66 · price 158.286
Double bottom at 157.84, late-NY breakout above 158.18.
Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD drove the London slide to a 157.84 day low. NY built higher lows off that double bottom, and a late-NY breakout above 158.18 is now testing the 158.31 session high, just past the 78.6% retracement of the Asia-London drop, with RSI(14) near 66 and the 158.39 Asian high overhead.
Support: 158.18, 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.31, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 asian high clears the top of the Asia-session range
Slip back below the 158.18 breakout level would turn the late-NY push into a false break
Loss of the 158.02 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline; the 157.84 day low is next
Meta earnings after the US close could shift AI-driven risk tone and haven demand for JPY
Higher lows off 157.84 double bottom, capped at NY high.
The slide from the 158.39 Asian high bottomed at 157.84 (day low) just before NY. Himino's hawkish remarks and a soft USD drove the London leg, and the double bottom there has since produced higher lows above 158.00. Price is pressing the 158.18 NY high, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the day's drop.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.18, 158.21, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.21 swing high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 158.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.02 NY low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 157.84 day low back in play
Meta earnings tonight could shift AI-driven risk sentiment and JPY haven demand
18:46 UTC
Recovering from London low, flattening late NY · RSI 53 · price 158.133
Higher lows off 157.84, capped below London high.
London broke the Asian range low and slid to a 157.84 day low as Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD weighed. NY retraced about 80% of that drop off a double bottom near 157.84, printing higher lows along a rising trendline. Price is now compressing late in the NY session beneath the ny high at 158.18 and the london high at 158.20, with the 158.00 psych level just below.
Support: 158.016, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.182, 158.197, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 london high clears the drop and puts the 158.39 asian high in view
Break of the 158.02 swing low and the 158.00 psych level undercuts the NY rising lows and reopens the 157.84 day low
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.84 London low, capped at 158.18 NY high.
Himino's hawkish remarks pulled the pair off the 158.39 Asian high. London extended through the 158.03 Asian low to a 157.84 London low, retested at 157.85 near the NY open, before a softer USD lifted the pair back inside the Asian range. Late in the NY session, price sits under the 158.18 NY high, which lines up with the fib 61.8% retracement of the decline, while the 158.02 swing low keeps the rising support intact.
Support: 158.016, 157.837
Resistance: 158.182, 158.389
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.18 NY high (fib 61.8%) opens the path to the 158.39 Asian high
Break of the 158.02 swing low and rising support turns focus back to the 157.84 London low
Meta Q3 earnings risk-sentiment reaction during thin post-NY hours could jolt the range
18:16 UTC
Recovering from London low, compressing late NY · RSI 53 · price 158.129
Higher lows off 157.84 double bottom, capped below 158.18.
London broke the Asian low at 158.03 after Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD, running to a 157.84 double btm before NY reclaimed the 158.00 pivot in a false break. The NY recovery has built higher lows near 158.02 but is compressing under the 158.18 NY high in late-NY trade, well below the 158.39 Asian high.
Support: 158.02, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.18, 158.21, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 higher low and 158.00 pivot reopens the 157.84 double btm
Close above the 158.18 NY high and 158.21 range top shifts focus back to the 158.39 Asian high
Loss of the NY higher lows trendline breaks the recovery sequence
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 22:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks; Meta earnings could shift risk tone after NY close
18:01 UTC
Recovering from London low, capped below 158.17 · RSI 59 · price 158.155
Higher lows since 157.84, flat highs at 158.15-158.17.
Yen strength after Himino's hawkish remarks pushed London through the Asian low (158.03) to a 157.84 session low, retested at 157.85. The NY session lifted the pair back into the Asian range (158.03–158.39) on a rising-support line. Late NY, three tests of the 158.15–158.17 ny high have stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the asian high to london low drop.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.17, 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 ny high and 61.8% retracement exposes the 158.20 london high, then the 158.39 asian high
Break of the 158.02 ny swing low and rising support turns the focus back to the 157.84 session low
Thin liquidity into the Asia session can produce noise at range edges; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk
Double low at 157.84, now ranging 158.02–158.17 in late NY.
Yen strength after Himino's hawkish remarks dragged the pair off the 158.39 Asian high, and London broke the Asian low to print a double low at the 157.84 session low. NY reclaimed 158.00 but has stalled near the midpoint of the move, ranging between the 158.02 NY low and the 158.17 NY high. RSI is flat near 52.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.17, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 NY low puts the 157.84 session low back in play
M15 close above the 158.17 NY high, about the 61.8% retrace, opens the path to the 158.39 Asian high
A break of the rising line from the session low weakens the rebound structure
Japan National CPI Thu 22:30 UTC could materially shift this read around the 158.00 pivot
Late NY, after London close. Himino's hawkish comments pushed London through the 158.03 Asian low and NY down to a 157.84 double low, and the NY rebound has since stalled in tight chop between the 158.02 swing low and the 158.17 NY high. Price sits back near the base of the Asian range, RSI(14) neutral at ~56 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 158.02, 157.84
Resistance: 158.17, 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.02 swing low and the rising support from the double low reopens 157.84
Close above the 158.17 NY high brings the 158.20 London high into play, with the 158.39 Asian high above
A retrace beyond the 61.8% of the NY rebound (~157.96) would undercut the double low read
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Recovering from London low, flattening in late NY · RSI 57 · price 158.071
Double bottom at 157.84, higher lows, NY range 158.02–158.17.
London broke the Asian range low and the 158.00 round number to a 157.84 day low after Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD. A double bottom at 157.84 marked the turn, and NY has since held rising support, ranging 158.02–158.17 with repeated rejection at the 158.17 NY high. Late in NY, after London close, price sits near 158.07, just above flat EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 158.016, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.166, 158.197, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 NY high puts the 158.20 London high and then the 158.39 Asian high in play
Failure at the 158.02 NY low and the 158.00 round number breaks rising support and reopens the 157.84 day low
Meta earnings tonight and AI-risk headlines could move USD after hours; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled JPY test
16:46 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a downtrend day · RSI 56 · price 158.089
Higher lows off 157.84 double low, capped at 158.17 NY high.
Himino's hawkish inflation remarks sent the pair through the Asian range low, and London extended the drop to a 157.84 session low. That low printed twice. NY rebuilt above the 158.00 round number on a chain of higher lows to a 158.04 higher low, but the latest bar was rejected at the 158.17 NY high. Price now sits at the 23.6% level of the NY recovery fib and just above both EMAs.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.17, 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.04 breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 158.00 round number back in play
Close above 158.20, the London high, opens a path back toward the 158.39 Asia high
Loss of the 157.84 session low would void the double bottom
Meta earnings tonight and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 157.84, NY HH/HL chain back inside Asian range.
London broke the 158.03 asian low as Himino's hawkish inflation remarks and a softer USD extended the drop to a 157.84 day low, tested twice. NY has since built higher lows along a rising trendline back into the Asian range. Price is late in the NY session pressing the 158.17 ny high, near the 61.8% of the asian high–day low fib.
Support: 158.035, 157.837
Resistance: 158.166, 158.205, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 swing high opens the path toward the 158.39 asian high
Break of the NY trendline and the 158.03 asian low puts the 157.84 day low back in focus
Meta earnings tonight could shift USD tone; AI jitters have been weighing on the dollar
16:16 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling under 158.155 · RSI 63 · price 158.143
False break below Asian low reclaimed, higher lows in NY.
The Asia high at 158.389 came on the Japan trade-deficit miss and was faded after Himino's hawkish remarks. London then broke the Asian low and printed a london low at 157.837. NY reclaimed that break with a double bottom and a higher low at 158.038, but the ny high at 158.155 has capped three tests between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 158.038, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.155, 158.205, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.155 ny high opens the 158.205 swing high, then the 158.389 asia high
Break of the 158.038 higher low negates the NY rebound and exposes psych 158.00, then the 157.837 london low
Japan National CPI on Thu at 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled yen risk for this range
Double bottom at 157.84/157.85, higher low at 158.04 under the 158.16 NY high.
The Asian high at 158.39 came on the trade-deficit miss and faded after Himino's hawkish remarks. London then broke 158.00 to a 157.84 session low, and NY built a double bottom there before reclaiming 158.00. The pullback held at 158.04, the 38.2% of the NY rally, and price is pressing the 158.16 NY high with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.155, 158.197, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 ny high opens the 158.20 london high
Loss of the 158.04 higher low and ny rising support exposes 158.00 psych, then the 157.84 session low
Meta earnings after the US close: AI-driven risk-off has been weighing on USD and USD/JPY
Lower highs from 158.21; NY rebound capped at 158.155, retesting 158.00.
After a capped Asia push to the 158.39 asia high, London broke the 158.03 Asian low and ran to a 157.84 day low as Himino's hawkish remarks and a soft USD weighed. The NY rebound stalled at 158.155, a rebound high under the London high at 158.21 on the lower-highs line. Price is now back at the 158.00 round number, near the 50% fib of that bounce.
Support: 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.155, 158.206, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number puts the 157.84 day low back in play
Close above the 158.155 rebound high and the lower-highs line through the 158.21 london high breaks the intraday sequence
Meta earnings after the US close; risk-off has been weighing on USD/JPY
Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 158.14
Double bottom at 157.84, higher lows through NY.
The pair slid from the 158.39 asian high to a 157.84 double bottom by early NY, with Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer dollar behind the move. The break below 158.00 failed. A steady higher-low climb along the NY rally line has reclaimed the round number. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib and is pressing the 158.20 london high. RSI(14) is near 66.
Support: 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.20 london high clears the range top and exposes the 158.39 asian high
Loss of the NY rally line and a close back below the 158.00 round number puts the 157.84 double bottom back in play
Meta Q3 earnings after the US close could move USD via AI sentiment and yields
15:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery testing it · RSI 63 · price 158.129
London false break below Asian low reversed; higher lows off 157.84.
The Asia high at 158.39 came on the wider Japan trade deficit. Himino's hawkish inflation remarks and a soft USD then took London through the 158.03 Asian low to a 157.84 day low, where a double bottom formed. NY has reclaimed the round number and the Asian low, and is now pressing the 50% fib near 158.11 and the 158.14 NY high, with RSI(14) at 63.
Support: 158.03, 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.14, 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.03 Asian low revives the London breakdown and puts the 158.00 round number in focus
Close above the 158.19 London high opens the path toward the 158.39 Asia high
Loss of the higher-low support line off the 157.84 double bottom undercuts the NY recovery
Meta Q3 earnings tonight: AI-sentiment moves have been weighing on USD and yields
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling, NY rebound in progress · RSI 59 · price 158.116
Higher lows off a 157.84 double bottom, back inside the London range.
London broke the 158.03 Asian low and the 158.00 psych level to a 157.84 day low, with Himino's remarks on underlying inflation and a soft USD weighing on the pair. A double bottom at 157.84–157.85 held, and the NY rebound has reclaimed 158.00. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian high to day low drop, just under the 158.14 NY high.
Support: 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.137, 158.197, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 psych level reopens the 157.84 day low and turns the Asian-low break from a false break into continuation
Break of the NY rising trendline from the day low stalls the rebound
Close above the 158.20 London high puts the 158.39 Asian high back in play
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and Meta earnings tonight could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, double bottom at 157.84, 158.00 reclaimed.
London broke the Asian range low at 158.03 after Himino's hawkish remarks and softer USD. The slide extended to a 157.84 session low, which held twice before the NY open. The NY rebound off rising support reclaimed 158.00 psych and EMA20 but is stalling at the 61.8% fib near 158.06, just under the 158.10 NY high, with the 158.20 London cap and 158.39 Asia high above.
Support: 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.10, 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.00 psych reopens the 157.84 session low
Break of the 157.84 session low and rising support confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 158.10 NY high puts the 158.20 London cap in play; the 158.39 Asia high sits above that
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Japan CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) is the next major JPY risk
Lower highs from 158.39 Asia peak; twin lows 157.84/157.85, reclaiming 158.00.
The Asia high at 158.39 came on the wider Japan trade deficit, and price has faded since. Himino's hawkish comments and a softer USD pushed it below the London high range of 158.08–158.19 late morning. Twin lows at 157.84/157.85 into the NY open held just above yesterday's 157.83 low, and price is now pressing the 158.00 neckline with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.11, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 closes holding above the 158.00 neckline confirm the double btm, opening the 50% fib at 158.11 of the 158.39–157.84 drop
158.19 london high is the top of the broken range; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A break below 157.84 voids the double btm and takes out the twin lows near yesterday's low
Japan CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and US claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) sit outside this session but could reset the range
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in early NY · RSI 40 · price 157.912
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs from 158.39, NY boxed 157.84–158.00.
The 158.39 spike on Japan's wide trade deficit faded after Himino's hawkish BoJ comments. London then broke the Asian low at 158.03, putting in a run of lower highs. Early NY is boxed 157.84–158.00: the session low has held twice, the round number (near the 23.6% fib of the drop) capped two pushes, and RSI(14) sits around 40.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.03, 158.20
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.03 asian low reclaims the Asian range and invalidates the breakdown; the 158.20 london high is the next cap
Break of the 157.84 session low and the 157.825 prior-day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 range floor
Meta Q3 earnings later today could move US yields and shift this read
Lower highs from 158.39 Asia high; twin lows at 157.84 testing 158.00.
After the trade-deficit spike to the 158.39 Asia high, Himino's hawkish BoJ comments started the drop, and London extended it through the 158.03 asian low, below the 158.19 london high, to 157.84. That level held twice into the London-NY transition, forming a double bottom, and early NY is pressing the 158.00 round number at EMA20, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.03, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 asian low would reclaim broken support and stall the lower-high sequence
Failure at 158.00 and a break of the 157.84 double bottom exposes the 157.50 range floor
Lower-highs trendline from 158.39 caps near 158.19 london high; a break there invalidates the downtrend read
Meta Q3 earnings later today could shift yields and the USD tone
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · price 157.847
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range; shallow bounces capped at 38.2%.
London broke the 158.031 Asian low and the 158.00 handle, extending a lower-high sequence to a 157.837 session low. The yen was firmer after Himino's hawkish remarks and the dollar softer. Into the NY session price is pressing the 157.825 prior low, with the only bounce rejected at the 38.2% fib near 157.96 and RSI(14) around 29.
Support: 157.825, 157.50
Resistance: 157.963, 158.031, 158.164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.825 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 range floor
Recovery back above the 158.031 Asian low would make the London break a false break; the 158.164 lower high caps the downtrend sequence
Meta Q3 earnings tonight could shift USD tone through AI-risk sentiment
Lower highs since London high; Asian range low broken.
Lower highs from the 158.197 London high and the 158.164 lower high fed a London-NY transition slide through the 158.031 Asian low and 158.00. Price reached a 157.837 session low, a retest of the 157.825 prior-day low, as Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks and a softer USD weighed. Early NY is bouncing at 157.92 with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 157.837, 157.50
Resistance: 158.031, 158.164, 158.197
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.031 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the range break
Falling trendline and fib 50% near 158.02 sit in the bounce path; a hold below keeps the lower high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 157.837 session low and 157.825 prior-day low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Meta earnings tonight and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; 158.00 floor and Asian low broken.
Late London broke the 158 floor and the asian low at 158.03, extending a lower-high chain from the 158.19 london high down to 157.84, where yesterday's NY prior low at 157.83 caught the first test. RSI(14) bottomed near 24 and sits around 29 into the NY open, with a softer USD and BoJ Himino's hawkish remarks behind the slide.
Support: 157.83, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.03, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158 floor and asian low (158.00–158.03) would mark the break as a false break; that zone also holds the 50% of the London leg fib
Failure to hold the prior low at 157.83 exposes the 157.50 range base
A close above the selloff line near 157.91 eases the lower-high sequence
Meta earnings tonight and Japan CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 28 · price 157.878
Asian range broken to the downside in London, lower-low sequence intact.
London capped at the 158.20 london high and printed lower highs before breaking the Asian low at 158.03 and the 158.00 psych floor, extending to 157.87 into the London-NY transition. The slide follows softer USD and Himino's hawkish inflation remarks. Price sits just above the 157.83 prior low with RSI(14) near 28, short of a deep oversold extreme.
Support: 157.825, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.031, 158.197
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.00 psych and the 158.03 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.83 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 range base
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 158.20 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Meta earnings after the NY close are the next risk-tone input for yields and USD
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 29 · price 157.945
Lower highs from 158.39; London broke below 158.00 and the Asian low.
The 158.39 Asian high followed the brief lift on Japan's wider trade deficit, and Himino's hawkish inflation remarks set off a sequence of lower highs. Late in London, price slipped through the 158.00 round number and the 158.03 Asian low to a 157.89 session low. That sits just above Tuesday's 157.83 prior low, with RSI(14) near 28 in oversold territory.
Support: 157.889, 157.825
Resistance: 158.00, 158.197
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 158.00 round number would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.83 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 range floor
An M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 158.20 London high invalidates the downtrend read
NY open in the next hour is the near-term catalyst; Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) is the next major yen catalyst
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending into late London · RSI 26 · price 157.912
Lower highs from 158.39 Asia high; Asian range low broken.
BoJ Himino's hawkish remarks started the slide from the 158.39 Asia high. Late London has since broken the 158.03 asian low and the 158.00 psych floor, and London lower highs are capping each bounce. Price sits at the 157.90 session low with RSI(14) near 26. Yesterday's 157.825 prior low is the next reference into the NY open, with ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 157.898, 157.825
Resistance: 158.00, 158.031, 158.197
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 asian low puts price back inside the range and turns the break into a false break
Close above the 158.20 london high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 157.825 prior low confirms a fresh lower low below yesterday's range
Retrace toward the 50% of the Asia high drop (~158.14) would retest the broken range from below
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 157.993
LH/LL chain; Asian low and 158.00 psych broken in late London morning.
Price has faded from the 158.39 Asian high, set on the wider Japan trade deficit, after BoJ's Himino said underlying inflation is near 2%. Late in the London morning it broke the Asian low at 158.03 and the 158.00 psych to a session low at 157.97. Lower highs at 158.21 (london high) and 158.16 cap the move, and RSI(14) at ~31 is soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 157.968, 157.84
Resistance: 158.031, 158.206, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.97 session low exposes yesterday's NY prior low at 157.84
Rebound beyond the 158.21 london high breaks the lower-highs line and the fib 61.8% zone
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this range
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 158.045
Lower-high sequence from 158.389, probing below the Asian low at the 158.00 round number.
The wider Japanese trade deficit lifted the pair to the 158.389 Asian high. BoJ Himino's comments on underlying inflation then reversed it, and late London has printed a lower high at 158.164 before slipping below the Asian low to 158.006, where the 158.00 round number is holding for now. RSI(14) near 40 and ATR around 6 pips point to a grinding drift lower rather than an impulsive break.
Support: 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.164, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes yesterday's NY prior low at 157.825
Close above the 158.164 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high read
NY open and US-Iran headlines via oil and yields could shift the 158.00–158.50 range dynamics
Lower highs in London pressing onto 158.03–158.05 floor.
The trade-data pop to the 158.39 Asia high faded after BoJ Himino's hawkish remarks, with the drop leaving a 158.03 Asia low. London has printed a falling trendline of lower highs from the 158.20 London high through the 158.16 lower high, compressing onto the 158.03–158.05 floor just above the 158.00 round number. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 5.5 pips.
Support: 158.03, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.16, 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 Asia low and 158.00 round number opens the 157.83 prior low from Tuesday's NY session
Close above the falling trendline and 158.20 London high invalidates the lower-high sequence
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields can jolt this tight range; Japan national CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled yen catalyst
Lower highs compressing into flat 158.03–158.05 floor.
The Asian high at 158.389 printed after the soft trade data, then Himino's hawkish remarks drove a slide to the 158.031 session low. Mid-London, price is pressing that floor again after rejection at the 158.164 lower high, with the london high at 158.197 capping the session range. RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 6 pips point to slow, compressed trade below both EMAs.
Support: 158.031, 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.164, 158.197, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.031 session low and the 158.00 round number opens the 157.825 prior low
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 158.197 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 158.389 asian high would negate the descending structure
Further BoJ or MoF commentary headlines could jolt the 158.00 floor
10:31 UTC
Sideways after Asian fade, compressing · RSI 46 · price 158.119
Lower highs against rising lows inside 158.06–158.20.
The wider Japan trade deficit lifted the pair to the 158.39 Asian high. Himino's hawkish remarks then drove the Asian fade to the 158.03 Asian low. London has stayed compressed between the 158.06 London low and the 158.20 London high. Rising lows are meeting lower highs, and supply is capping near the 50% retrace of the Asian fade.
Support: 158.06, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.03 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.83 prior low
Close above 158.20 london high (50% of Asian fade) ends the compression and reopens 158.39 asian high
No scheduled data in the next 8h. US-Iran / oil headlines are the live catalyst, and Japan CPI follows Thu 23:30 UTC
10:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asian pullback · RSI 53 · price 158.151
Lower highs and higher lows inside 158.03–158.21, mid-London.
The wider-than-expected trade deficit lifted USD/JPY to the 158.389 Asian high. Himino's hawkish comments then pulled it back to the 158.031 Asian low, near the 61.8% fib of the 157.825–158.389 move. London is compressing inside 158.057–158.197 between a falling trendline and a rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 158.057, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.197, 158.271, 158.389
What it said to watch
A close above the London high at 158.197 and the falling trendline opens the 158.271 lower high, with the Asian high at 158.389 next
Failure to hold the London low at 158.057 and the rising trendline exposes the Asian low at 158.031; a break there brings the prior low at 157.825 into view
No scheduled tier-one data in the next 8h, so US-Iran and oil headlines are the live risk to this range; Japan National CPI is due Thu 23:30 UTC
10:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 158.13
Narrowing range: lower highs from 158.39, higher lows from 158.03.
Himino's hawkish inflation remarks knocked USDJPY off the 158.39 Asian high to the 158.03 Asian low. Mid-London, price is compressing inside a 158.06–158.20 range, with London low and London high bracketing a sequence of lower highs and higher lows. RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and ATR is about 5.5 pips, so nothing directional is in play yet.
Support: 158.06, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 London high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 158.39
Failure to hold the 158.06 London low and the 158.03 Asian low exposes Tuesday's 157.83 prior low
NY open is the likely catalyst for the narrowing range to resolve; no scheduled data in the next 8h
09:46 UTC
Sideways after Asian sell-off, compressing · RSI 46 · price 158.144
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
The Asian session high at 158.39 came on the wider Japan trade deficit, then Himino's hawkish inflation remarks drove a slide to the 158.03 Asian low. London has stayed inside the Asian range, coiling between a lower high at 158.21 and a higher low at 158.08 as the lines converge, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 158.08, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.206, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.21 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.08 higher low and the 158.03 Asian low brings 158.00 and the 157.83 prev day low into play
NY open in roughly 3h and any MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
London inside the Asian range, lower highs over a 158.03–158.06 floor.
The pair has faded from the 158.389 Asian high after the Japan trade-data pop. The drop to the 158.031 Asian low came as Himino's comments on underlying inflation landed. Mid-London, price is boxed under the descending trendline and the 158.197 London high, with the london low at 158.057 holding; RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 158.057, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.197, 158.252, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.197 london high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, opening the 61.8% fib at 158.252 and the asian high at 158.389
Failure to hold the 158.031 asian low exposes the 157.825 prior low from Tuesday's NY session
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main USD driver into NY hours with no scheduled data; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC sits beyond this window
09:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower from the Asian high · RSI 47 · price 158.129
London trading inside the Asian range, with lower highs since 158.39.
The trade-data pop to the 158.39 Asian high faded after Himino's hawkish remarks, and price slid to the 158.03 Asian low. Early London has stayed inside that range. The London high at 158.20, near the 50% of the Asian drop fib, saw rejection, and demand has held twice above 158.03; RSI sits neutral at 47.
Support: 158.03, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 London high opens a retest of the 158.39 Asian high
Failure at the 158.03 Asian low exposes yesterday's 157.825 NY low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil/US-Iran headlines and US yields drive the USD leg
Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 47 · price 158.129
Compression 158.03–158.20 after Asian fade.
The Japan trade-data miss lifted the pair to an Asian high at 158.39. That move was rejected and faded to the 158.03 Asian low after hawkish Himino remarks. Early London is compressing between the 158.06 London low and the 158.20 London high, capped near the 50% retracement of the Asian fade, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 158.06, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 Asian low breaks the compression and exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.83
M15 close above the 158.20 London high clears the Asian fade fib 50% and opens a retest of the 158.39 Asian high
Oil and US-Iran headlines moving US yields could set the USD leg into the NY session
08:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 56 · price 158.17
London inside Asian range; lower highs compressing above 158.03.
The wider-than-expected Japan trade deficit lifted the pair to the 158.39 Asian high. Price then faded to the 158.03 Asian low, and London has stayed inside that range. The London open was rejected at 158.20, and the London low at 158.06 has held. A series of lower highs is pressing on that flat base; RSI 56 is neutral and ATR is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 158.06, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.20 breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.06 London low and 158.03 Asian low exposes yesterday's 157.83 NY low
US yields into the NY session remain the main USDJPY driver; Japan CPI (Oct 22, 23:30 UTC) is the next scheduled JPY risk
08:31 UTC
Intraday drift lower from Asian high, flat lows · RSI 53 · price 158.142
Lower highs over a 158.03-158.06 floor, inside the Asian range.
The wider Japan trade deficit lifted the pair to a 158.39 Asian high, which then faded into a falling trendline of lower highs. Early London is still inside the Asian range, with the 07:15 UTC lower high at 158.20 capping and dips holding above the 158.03 Asian low. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 5.5 pips, so ranges are compressing.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.20, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.03 Asian low exposes yesterday's 157.83 NY low
Japan National CPI (Oct 22, 23:30 UTC) is the next scheduled JPY risk, outside the immediate session
08:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower from Asian high · RSI 51 · price 158.132
Lower highs from 158.39 compressing above 158.03 Asian low.
The wider Japan trade deficit lifted the pair to an Asian high of 158.389, but it faded through the Tokyo session to an Asian low of 158.031. The bounce stalled at the 50% retracement near 158.20. London open saw a rejection at that lower high and a dip to a 158.057 London low. Price now sits mid-range at 158.13, with ATR around 5–6 pips.
Support: 158.057, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.389 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.031 Asian low exposes the 157.825 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Holding between the London low and 158.20 keeps the compression read intact into the NY session
07:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend within broader range · RSI 48 · price 158.092
Lower highs from Asia high 158.39, flat base 158.03–158.08.
The Asian session spike to the 158.39 Asia high after Japan's trade-data miss faded into a chain of lower highs under the descending trendline. Early London was rejected at the 158.20 swing high, and price is back on the 158.08 base just above the 158.03 Asia low.
Support: 158.08, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
A break of the 158.03 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 157.83 prior low (yesterday's NY low).
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 158.20 swing high negates the lower-high read and puts the 158.39 Asia high back in play.
The ~5.7-pip ATR reflects compression on the base; a range break is likely to expand it.
07:31 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off Asian low · RSI 57 · price 158.193
Asian lower-high sequence, higher low at 158.09, price inside Asian range.
Asian session spiked to the 158.389 asian high after the wider Japan trade deficit, then faded to 158.031. Early London has printed a higher low at 158.09, and price is now retesting the broken base near 158.21, which is also the 50% fib of the Asian drop. Price sits just under EMA50 with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 158.09, 158.031, 157.825
Resistance: 158.21, 158.257, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.21 broken base / 50% fib opens the prior-day hi at 158.257, then the 158.389 asian high
Rejection at 158.21 keeps the Asian lower-high structure intact
Loss of the 158.09 higher low and the 158.031 asian low exposes the 157.825 prior-day lo from Tuesday's NY session
No tier-1 data in the next 8h; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled swing factor
07:16 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from Asian low · RSI 53 · price 158.177
Higher low at 158.09 after Asian sell-off; capped at 50% fib.
London open finds USDJPY at 158.18, mid-way through the 158.03–158.39 Asian range. Price edged to the Asian high after Japan's wider trade deficit, then faded to the Asian low. The rebound has printed a higher low at 158.09, but the 50% fib of that decline at 158.21 has capped twice.
Support: 158.09, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.21, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 158.21 opens a retest of the 158.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.09 higher low exposes the 158.03 Asian low, then the prior low at 157.83 from NY hours
Nothing scheduled in the next 8h; Japan CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) is the next swing factor for the 158.00–158.50 range
07:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 158.115
Lower-high chain from 158.39 Asian high, holding above 158.03 Asian low.
USDJPY briefly extended to the 158.39 Asian high after Japan's wider trade deficit, then faded in a lower-high sequence to a 158.03 Asian low. The rebound stalled at 158.21, a lower high near the 50% retracement of that drop, and price is back at 158.12 with RSI(14) near 37 ahead of London open.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.21, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.21 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.03 Asian low exposes yesterday's NY prior low at 157.83
London open within the hour is the first test of the 158.03–158.39 Asian range
Japan national CPI (Oct 22, 23:30 UTC) is the next scheduled risk for the 158.00–158.50 pin
06:46 UTC
Sideways, intraday lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 158.146
Inside yesterday's 157.83–158.39 range; Asian high 158.39 faded, lower high at 158.21.
The Asian high at 158.39 printed early in Tokyo and faded despite the wider Japan trade deficit, sliding to an Asian low of 158.03 before a bounce stalled at 158.21, near the 50% retracement, into London open. Price sits below both EMAs in the lower half of the Asian range, still inside yesterday's NY low to Asian high band; ATR around 5.6 pips signals a quiet tape.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.21, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 Asian low exposes the 157.83 NY low
Reclaim of the 158.21 lower high reopens the 158.39 Asian high
Japan National CPI on Oct 22 at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, basing · RSI 46 · price 158.171
Lower highs off 158.39, higher lows from 158.03 base.
Asia faded from the 158.39 Asian high to a base at the 158.03 Asian low. The bounce stalled at the 158.21 bounce high, near the 50% retrace, and price is now sitting on the 38.2% and ema20 ahead of London open. The wider Japan trade deficit drew little reaction, and the pair is pinned mid-range.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.21, 158.27, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.21 bounce high clears the 50% retrace and opens the 158.27 prior high (prior-day high)
Rejection at 158.21 and a break of the 158.03 asian low would extend the Asia fade toward the 157.83 prior low (prior-day low)
A London-open break of the 158.03–158.39 Asian range would end the range read
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main USD-side swing factor into London
Lower high at 158.21 inside the 158.03–158.39 Asian range.
USD/JPY spiked to the Asian high at 158.39 after Japan's wider trade deficit, but the level was rejected and price faded to the Asian low at 158.03. The bounce stalled at the 158.205 swing high, at the 50% retracement of that drop. Price sits mid-range just below both EMAs heading into the London open, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.205, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.205 swing high and 50% retracement reopens the Asian high at 158.39
Failure to hold the Asian low at 158.03 exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.83
London open break of the 158.03–158.39 Asian range would set the session direction
Lower highs from 158.39 Asian high, higher low at 158.07.
Asian high at 158.39 capped the session. A chain of lower highs then took price to the 158.03 Asian low, while hawkish Himino comments and weak Japan trade data barely registered. A higher low at 158.07 has formed, and the bounce is pressing the fib 38.2 at 158.17 and the descending line, with RSI(14) near 44 ahead of London open.
Support: 158.07, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.17, 158.27, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Loss of the 158.03 Asian low and the 158.07 higher low exposes yesterday's NY low at 157.83
US-Iran and oil headlines into London open could reset the Asian range
05:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs from the Asian high · RSI 41 · price 158.141
Lower highs inside Asian range, base forming at 158.03.
Late Asia session: the push to the 158.39 asian high after Tokyo's soft trade data was rejected, and price has printed lower highs since, with demand stepping in at the 158.03 asian low. The bounce high at 158.17 stalled near the 38.2% fib, leaving price at 158.14 below both EMAs and on the descending line, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR around 6 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.17, 158.27, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the descending sequence and the descending line
Failure to hold the 158.03 asian low exposes the 157.83 ny low from yesterday's NY session
Hold above the 158.17 bounce high (38.2% fib) would point to a deeper retrace toward the 50% fib at 158.21
London open could resolve the Asian range; US-Iran/oil headlines remain the main USD swing factor
Lower highs from 158.39 Asia high, 158.20 base broken, testing 158.03.
Weak Japanese trade data lifted the pair to the 158.39 asia high early in the session. That spike has since unwound through a series of lower highs and a range break below the 158.20 asia base at 03:30 UTC. Price sits just above the 158.03 asia low in late Asia, with RSI(14) near 32 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.03, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.03 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.825 ny low from Tuesday's NY session
Recovery back above the 158.20 asia base and the lower-high trendline invalidates the fade read
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asian session range holds
US-Iran deal headlines remain a continuous risk via oil and yields; no scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h
Lower-high chain from 158.39 Asia high, fresh low at 158.03.
Asia ran to a 158.39 session high after Japan's soft trade data. Price was then rejected and faded through Tokyo hours in a lower-high chain, giving back the full Asian gain to a 158.03 low into the pre-London lull. RSI(14) sits near 30 and ATR is about 6 pips, with the 158.15 breakdown level and the 38.2% fib near 158.17 above as the first test for any bounce.
Support: 158.031, 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.15, 158.271, 158.389
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.03 Asia low and the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.83 prior low set in Tuesday's NY session.
Recovery above the 158.15 breakdown level and the 158.27 lower high would neutralise the Asian fade read.
The 158.39 Asia high marks the top of the session range, which the London open in about 2h may test or break.
US-Iran and oil headlines remain a continuous USD driver and could abruptly reprice this range.
04:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 158.107
Asian high rejected at 158.389, lower-high chain into a 61.8% retracement test.
USD/JPY ran to an asia high at 158.389 after the wide Japan trade deficit, then printed lower highs through Tokyo and slid to an asia low at 158.031, the 61.8% retracement of the 157.825–158.389 leg. Late Asia session price sits near 158.10, below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~36, as softer USD on Iran deal headlines and lower yields cap the pair.
Support: 158.031, 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.271, 158.389
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.031 asia low and the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.825 ny low
Reclaim of the 158.271 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the intraday lower-high read
Asia high at 158.389 remains the upper bound of the session range
US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read at any time; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled JPY risk
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off the Asian high · RSI 29 · price 158.056
LH/LL chain from 158.39; Asian range fully unwound, late Asia pressing 158.00.
The early-Asia spike to the 158.389 asian high came after the wider Japanese trade deficit, then faded on softer USD. The pair has printed lower highs since and broke the 158.20 breakdown shelf, sitting at 158.05 near the 158.00 round number in late Asia session. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR runs about 6.6 pips. The prior low at 157.825, set during NY hours after the weak US housing data, is the next reference below.
Support: 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.825 prior low
Recovery above the 158.20 breakdown, the 50% retrace of the Asian sell-off, would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the asian high of 158.389 has driven the sell-off; a reclaim there invalidates the intraday downtrend read
London open in under 3h typically resets the Asian range
US-Iran headlines remain a two-way wildcard for USD tone
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 158.101
Lower-high chain off the Asian high; 158.20 shelf broken, price at session low.
Mid-Asia session, price has given back the early push to the 158.389 Asian high that followed Japan's wider trade deficit. A chain of lower highs, capped by the falling trendline, then broke the 158.20 asia shelf at 03:30 UTC. Price is now at the session low near 158.10 with RSI(14) at 36, not yet oversold, and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.27, 158.389
What it said to watch
Hold of the 158.03–158.05 london low into London open, with the 158.00 round number just below
A close below 158.00 exposes yesterday's 157.825 ny low
Reclaim of the 158.20 asia shelf (38.2% fib) would neutralise the lower-high sequence; the 158.27 lower high (61.8%) caps above that
US-Iran headlines remain a continuous wildcard for USD and yields; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled JPY risk
04:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 32 · price 158.147
Asia high rejected at 158.39, Asian range floor at 158.20 broken, price back at rollover base.
The post-trade-deficit push to the 158.39 Asia high was rejected. Lower highs followed, and the latest bar broke the 158.20 Asian floor, returning price to the 158.13 rollover low. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 157.83–158.39 rally, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.13, 158.04, 157.825
Resistance: 158.20, 158.389
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.13 rollover low opens the 61.8% fib at 158.04
Loss of 158.04 brings the 157.83 Tuesday NY low (tue ny low) back into play
A reclaim of the 158.20 Asian floor and the lower-highs trendline would negate the pullback read
Retest of the 158.39 Asia high would be needed to restore the higher-high sequence
US-Iran headlines hitting oil and US yields can jolt the pair into the London open
Lower highs off Asia session high, pressing the Asian low.
USDJPY gapped up at the rollover and tagged the 158.39 Asian high after Japan's wider-than-expected trade deficit. It has since printed a chain of lower highs back to the 158.20 Asian low, below the 23.6% retracement of yesterday's 157.83–158.39 recovery. Price trades under the ema20 and is flat on the ema50, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 6 pips in a quiet mid-Asia tape.
Support: 158.20, 158.17, 158.13
Resistance: 158.27, 158.389
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.20 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.17 and the late ny low at 158.13
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high ends the descending sequence and reopens the 158.39 asian high
London open is the likely catalyst to resolve the Asian range
US-Iran headlines via oil and US yields could materially shift this read at any time
03:31 UTC
Recovered off NY low, Asia fading into lower highs · RSI 46 · price 158.244
Asia session range 158.208–158.389, lower-high sequence from the session high.
Iran-deal headlines and soft US housing data dragged the pair to a 157.825 NY low before a full recovery. The Tokyo open pushed it to a 158.389 asia high after the wide Japan trade deficit, but sellers capped each bounce as lower highs formed. Price now sits mid-range near 158.24, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of that rise, leaning on rising support from the NY low.
Support: 158.208, 158.132, 157.825
Resistance: 158.271, 158.389, 158.422
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.208 asia low breaks rising support and opens the 38.2% fib near 158.17 and the 158.132 ny close
A close above the 158.271 lower high ends the Asia fade sequence and brings the 158.389 asia high and 158.422 prior high back into view
Iran talks headlines via Pakistan/Qatar during London open could break the Asian range either way; a 157.825 ny low retest needs a deeper USD leg
Higher low off 157.83 NY low; Asia session printing lower highs into 158.20.
USDJPY recovered from the 157.83 NY low after soft US housing data. The wider Japan trade deficit then lifted the Asia session to a 158.39 session high, which stalled short of the 158.42 prior high. Price is now consolidating at ema20 near 158.27, and the 158.20 asia low is holding inside the 23.6–38.2% zone of the 157.83–158.39 fib. RSI(14) is mid-40s and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.135, 157.825
Resistance: 158.389, 158.422
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 asia low exposes the 158.13–158.14 rollover low
Close above the 158.39 session high and 158.42 prior high would end the Asia pullback read
London open in ~4h typically resets the Asian range
US-Iran headlines remain a two-way USD risk; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled JPY catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.39 Asia high, inside a 157.83–158.46 day range.
USD/JPY recovered from the 157.83 NY low, set during USD softness on Iran-deal hopes and weak US housing, and the yen-negative Japan trade miss lifted price to a 158.39 Asia high just after 00:00 UTC. Late in the Tokyo morning that high has been rejected, with a lower-high chain driving price back to the 158.20 Asia low. Price sits below both EMAs and near the 23.6% fib of the NY-to-Asia leg.
Support: 158.20, 158.13, 157.83
Resistance: 158.28, 158.39, 158.46
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.13 late NY low
M15 close above the 158.28 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 158.39 Asia high
Loss of 158.11 (50% fib) exposes a deeper retrace of the NY-to-Asia leg toward the 157.83 NY low
US-Iran headlines on the Hormuz timeline could jolt yields and this read before London open
158.46 prior high caps the day range; a break above it changes the range read
02:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 158.13–158.39 band · RSI 42 · price 158.214
Asia lower highs from 158.389, price testing session low.
The Japan trade miss lifted the pair to a 158.389 Asia high, but it was rejected there. Price has since printed lower highs down to the 158.208 session low, now below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50. Yesterday's NY low at 157.825, set on soft US housing data, is fully retraced, and price is holding the 23.6–38.2% zone of that recovery near 158.17–158.26.
Support: 158.208, 158.132, 157.825
Resistance: 158.305, 158.389, 158.473
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.208 session low exposes the 158.132 rollover low and the fib 38.2% near 158.17
Failure to hold 158.132 reopens the move back toward the 157.825 ny low
Close above the 158.305 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line and puts the 158.389 asia high back in play
Clearing 158.389 targets the 158.473 window high and the top of the 158.00–158.50 band
London open in ~4.5h is the next volatility point, with unscheduled US-Iran headlines able to move USD
02:16 UTC
Uptrend from NY low, pausing below session high · RSI 56 · price 158.301
Higher lows since 157.83; Asian range 158.24–158.39.
The NY-session dip to the 157.83 ny low on the US housing misses has been fully retraced. Higher lows at the 158.13 swing low and the 158.24 pullback low carried the pair to a 158.39 Asian session high after the soft Japan trade data. Price is now consolidating mid-range just above ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR around 5–6 pips.
Support: 158.244, 158.13, 157.825
Resistance: 158.389, 158.504
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.24 pullback low and the rising trendline from the ny low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 158.13 swing low
Close above the 158.39 session high opens the 158.50 prior high, the top of the window
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields are the main unscheduled risk; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Higher lows from the 157.83 NY low; Asia broke the late-NY high and retested it.
Asia session lifted USD/JPY through the 158.27 late-NY high after Japan's trade deficit missed, topping at the 158.39 asian high. The 158.24 asian low pullback held at the 23.6% retrace of the move off the 157.83 NY low, and price is back near the session highs. RSI(14) sits near 60 and is not stretched.
Support: 158.244, 158.132, 157.825
Resistance: 158.389, 158.556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 asian high exposes the 158.56 prior high
Failure to hold the 158.24 asian low breaks the asia higher lows line and puts the 158.13 late ny low back in play
Iran deal or talks-breakdown headlines are the main USD swing factor during this window
01:46 UTC
Recovering, higher lows off the NY low · RSI 59 · price 158.341
Higher-low chain from 157.83; Asia session range 158.24–158.39.
USDJPY has put in higher lows since the 157.83 NY low. It lifted off the late NY base near 158.13 and is holding a 158.24–158.39 Asia session range after Japan's weaker-than-expected trade data. RSI(14) is near 59, price sits above both EMAs and is pressing the session high, with the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 158.244, 158.135, 157.825
Resistance: 158.389, 158.583
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 session high opens the 158.58 prior high from early yesterday
Loss of the 158.24 session low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the late NY base at 158.13
A move back under 158.13 puts the 157.83 NY low back in play
US-Iran deal headlines via oil and US yields can jolt the USD side during Asia/London hours
01:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at the Asian high · RSI 58 · price 158.287
Higher lows from the NY low at 157.825; Asian range 158.244–158.389.
Early Asia session, and the pair is extending its higher-low chain off the 157.825 NY low. After the soft Japan trade data, price was rejected at the 158.389 Asian high and pulled back to the 158.244 Asian low, near the 23.6% fib of the recovery leg. The 158.13 rollover swing low sits beneath.
Support: 158.244, 158.13, 157.825
Resistance: 158.389, 158.583
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.244 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 158.13 swing low
Close above the 158.389 asian high exposes Tuesday's 158.583 prior high
Loss of the 158.13 swing low puts the 157.825 ny low back in play
US-Iran deal headlines are the main swing factor for USD during this window
01:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Tokyo extension · RSI 70 · price 158.343
HH/HL chain off the 157.825 NY low; Tokyo broke above the prior NY high.
Tokyo morning pushed through the 158.267 prior NY high to a 158.389 session high after Japan's trade-balance miss, extending the HH/HL recovery from Tuesday's 157.825 NY-session low. The first pullback held at a 158.305 micro low and RSI(14) is near 70. A full reversal of the NY low-to-session high leg would put the 38.2% fib near 158.17, just above the rollover low.
Support: 158.305, 158.267, 158.132
Resistance: 158.389, 158.50, 158.591
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.305 micro low breaks the higher-low chain
Failure back under the 158.267 ny high returns price to the rollover range toward the 158.132 rollover low
Close above the 158.389 session high opens the 158.50 round number and the 158.591 prior high
US-Iran deal headlines, via oil and yields, could abruptly shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, recovering prior-day drop · RSI 66 · price 158.343
Higher lows since the NY low at 157.825; early Asia pressing the session high.
USD/JPY has retraced beyond the fib 61.8 of yesterday's 158.59–157.83 slide on a chain of higher lows from the NY low. Early Asia printed a session high at 158.389 after Japan's trade deficit miss, a mild yen negative. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips, so this is a quiet, orderly grind rather than a stretched move.
Support: 158.30, 158.26, 158.113
Resistance: 158.389, 158.427, 158.591
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.389 session high exposes the fib 78.6 at 158.43, then the prior high at 158.59
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 158.30 and the asia low at 158.26 breaks the higher-low chain
Break of the 158.11 swing low reopens the 158.00 close magnet
Thin Asia liquidity: USD-Iran headlines remain the main source of a sharp repricing
Higher highs and higher lows off the 157.82 NY low; early-Asia break above the NY high.
USD/JPY's NY-session dip to 157.82 came as the dollar softened on US-Iran deal hopes and weak housing data. Price has since rebuilt higher lows into a 158.29 breakout above the 158.26 NY high and set a session high at 158.39 in the Tokyo morning. RSI(14) at 72 is hot but not stretched, and the higher lows trendline sits near the 158.13 rollover low.
Support: 158.29, 158.26, 158.13
Resistance: 158.39, 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.26 NY high returns price to yesterday's 158.10–158.26 range
Holding the 158.29 breakout level keeps the higher-low chain intact; a clean break of the 158.39 session high exposes the 158.50 round number and the 158.60 prior high
Iran deal headlines via oil and US yields can reverse this leg quickly
Japan CPI on Thu 23:30 UTC is the next scheduled yen catalyst
00:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off NY low · RSI 76 · price 158.352
Higher lows from 157.83; post-rollover box broken to upside.
USDJPY pushed through the 158.26–158.31 post-rollover box in the first Tokyo hour. The box top lines up with the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's 158.60–157.83 slide, and soft Japan trade data drew little reaction. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but normal in thin Asia ranges, and ATR is about 4 pips, with the softer-USD backdrop not stopping the bounce off the NY low.
Support: 158.31, 158.265, 158.13
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
An Asia session close back below the 158.31 box top turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 158.26 ny high exposes the 158.13 rollover low and the rising support from the NY low
Acceptance above the 158.50 round number opens the 158.60 24h high
Iran deal headlines via oil and yields can override this read quickly
Japan CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) is the next scheduled JPY risk, outside this session
00:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows off NY low, stalling at fib 61.8 · RSI 63 · price 158.287
HH/HL recovery from 157.83, now a tight 158.26–158.31 box in early Asia.
USD/JPY has retraced about 61.8% of Tuesday's slide from the 158.60 prior high to the 157.83 NY low, printing higher lows along the way. A 14-pip pop at 22:00 UTC lifted price into a 158.26–158.31 box that is stalling at the fib 61.8 in quiet early Asia, with the softer dollar on Iran-deal hopes doing little for the yen.
Support: 158.26, 158.13, 157.83
Resistance: 158.31, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.31 fib 61.8 opens the path back to the 158.60 prior high
Break of the 158.26 range low returns focus to the 158.13 swing low and the higher-lows trendline
Loss of 157.83 ny low would void the recovery structure
Iran deal headlines (oil and yields) remain the swing factor for USD during Asia
00:01 UTC
Recovery off NY low, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 68 · price 158.286
Higher lows from 157.825, capped near 158.30 in thin Asia open.
Monday's Asia-to-NY slide from the 158.599 asian high bottomed at the 157.825 ny low as Iran-deal headlines softened the USD, and the yen failed to extend from there. A thin-liquidity jump at the 22:00 UTC rollover lifted price off the 158.13 rollover low to the 61.8% fib at 158.30, and the pair has sat in a 4-pip band under it into the Asia open, with the 50% fib at 158.21 below.
Support: 158.212, 158.132, 157.825
Resistance: 158.303, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 158.60 asian high
Return below the 158.21 50% fib unwinds the rollover jump; the 158.13 rollover low then comes into play
Japan trade balance (23:50 UTC) and Thu Japan CPI could materially shift this read; US-Iran headlines remain the USD driver
Break of the 157.825 ny low confirms a lower-low toward the 157.50 range floor