Lower-high/lower-low chain from 157.35; prior 156.69-156.75 floor broken in early Asia.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the 157.35 London-NY high. Early Asia broke the 156.69 London low and the 156.75 NY low to a session low at 156.52 as JPY stays bid on risk-off and softer US yields. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not extreme, and Japan CPI is landing in the current bar.
Support: 156.52, 156.50
Resistance: 156.69, 156.75, 156.91
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI (23:30 UTC, core f/c 2.1%) lands in the current bar and could materially shift this read
A failure to hold the 156.52 session low exposes the 156.50 round number
Recovery back above the 156.69 london low and 156.75 ny low puts price back inside the broken floor
A close above the falling highs line, or above the 156.91 lower high, breaks the lower-high chain
Lower highs from 157.36; London low 156.69 broken in early Asia.
USD/JPY slid to a session low of 156.52 in early Asia, clearing the 156.69 London low and extending the lower-high chain from 157.36 as JPY stays bid on risk-off and softer UST yields. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not extreme, and the descending line off the 157.04 lower high is still capping bounces.
Support: 156.52, 156.50
Resistance: 156.69, 156.81, 157.04
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 156.69 london low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.52 session low and the 156.50 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 156.81 session high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain
Lower highs from 157.35 NY high; fresh low at 156.60 in early Asia.
USD/JPY faded from the 157.35 NY high on the risk-off, lower-yield JPY bid. Early Asia printed a fresh session low at 156.60, below the 156.69 London low, and price is still capped under the descending trendline. RSI(14) sits near 37 in thin post-rollover trade ahead of Japan CPI.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.81, 156.91, 157.00
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Close above the 156.81 session high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 156.91 swing high, near the 38.2% of the NY decline, is next
Failure to hold the 156.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 156.50 psych
Reclaiming the 157.00 round number would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since NY high; London low broken.
Lower highs off the 157.36 NY high, capped by a falling trendline, took USD/JPY through the 156.69 London low to a 156.60 session low in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 31. JPY is still drawing haven demand from risk-off and lower UST yields, and the 38.2% fib of the NY high-to-session-low drop sits at the 156.91 lower high.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.69, 156.91, 157.04
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI (f/c 2.1%) at 23:30 UTC, inside the next few bars, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 156.69 London low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 156.91 lower high and the falling trendline ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 156.60 session low exposes the 156.50 round number
Reclaim of the 157.04 swing high, near the 61.8% fib, would neutralise the downtrend read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 156.733
Lower highs since NY high, pinned above day low.
Lower highs from the 157.35 session high along a falling lower-high line have squeezed price into 156.71–156.81, just above the 156.69 day low, on thin early-Asia bars after the NY fade. JPY firmness on risk-off and lower US yields keeps the pair under the round number at 157.00.
Support: 156.688, 156.50
Resistance: 156.808, 157.00, 157.355
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%, prev 1.7%) is the likely trigger to resolve the compression; ATR near 6.5 pips understates the event-risk range
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
M15 close above the 156.81 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the compression, with 157.00 round number then the 157.35 session high above
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into day low · RSI 39 · price 156.723
Lower-high chain from 157.35; pressing 156.69 day low.
Risk-off and lower US yields drove the yen bid. Asia broke 158.20 and the 157.04 Asian low, and London open extended to 156.82. NY's rebound then formed a double top at 157.35 and rolled over. Late NY printed lower highs at 157.04 and 156.91, and price now sits in thin post-close trade just above the 156.69 day low, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 156.688, 156.50
Resistance: 156.906, 157.038, 157.355
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read in thin early-Asia liquidity
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
Close above the 156.91 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the late-NY descending sequence
Reclaim of the 157.04 Asian low reopens the 157.35 double top
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 156.774
Lower highs from the NY high, tight post-NY compression above the day low.
The Asia session broke the 157.50 floor and London set the day low at 156.688. The rebound stalled at the 157.355 NY high and has printed lower highs since, with risk-off and lower US yields keeping JPY bid. Post-NY trade is compressing between the 156.746 session low and the 156.906 lower high, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 156.746, 156.688, 156.50
Resistance: 156.906, 157.035, 157.355
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) is likely to break the 156.75–156.90 compression
A close below the 156.688 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 156.50 psych
A close above the 156.906 lower high ends the post-NY compression
Reclaiming the 157.035 swing high breaks the lower highs trendline from the NY high
Lower highs since NY high, lows clustering 156.75.
The Asia slide from 158.25 broke the 157.50 floor on risk-off yen demand and lower US yields. London then printed the 156.69 day low. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.36 NY high, and lower highs since have pushed price back onto the 156.75 session low, where thin post-NY trade is flat near 156.80.
Support: 156.75, 156.69
Resistance: 156.91, 157.04, 157.36
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (02:30 broker, f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 156.91 lower high and 157.04 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 157.36 NY high negates the intraday downtrend read
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 156.799
Lower highs pressing into flat late-NY lows above day low.
The Asia session selloff from 158.25 broke 158.00, and London extended it to a 156.69 day low as risk-off demand for JPY and lower UST yields weighed. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.36 NY high. Since then price has compressed under a lower high at 156.91 into the 156.75 late-NY low, with thin early-Asia trading.
Support: 156.75, 156.69
Resistance: 156.91, 157.05, 157.36
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) lands in ~2h and could break the compression either way
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 156.91 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the fib 50% at 157.05 is next
Recovery beyond the 157.36 NY high would undo the post-London downtrend read
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 156.774
Lower highs from 157.36 into flat lows at 156.75.
The Asia session slide from 158.25 broke the old 157.50 range floor on risk-off JPY demand and lower US yields. The NY session faded the 157.36 london high into a chain of lower highs, the latest at 156.91. Price is compressing just above the 156.75 session low and the 156.69 day low in thin late-NY trade, RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 156.75, 156.69
Resistance: 156.91, 157.04, 157.36
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 156.75 session low after three tests confirms the compression resolving lower
Close above the 156.91 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY sequence; 157.04 ny high next
Reclaim of the 157.36 london high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Since the 157.35 NY high, USD/JPY has printed lower highs at 157.03 and 156.90. Risk-off flows and softer US yields keep JPY bid. Price is now compressing at the 156.75 late low, just above the 156.69 day low, on thin rollover volume with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 156.746, 156.688
Resistance: 156.906, 157.035, 157.355
What it said to watch
Break below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 156.90 lower high and the 157.03 swing high breaks the descending trendline
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a snap higher
Friday US PMIs and UoM sentiment are the next USD-side catalyst
Lower highs from 157.35; tight 156.75–157.03 box above session low.
USD/JPY broke below the Asian range low near 157.04 at the London open and set a session low at 156.69, as AI-led risk-off and lower US yields bid JPY. The NY high at 157.35 capped the rebound, and late NY has compressed between the NY low at 156.75 and the 157.03 swing high under a lower-highs line. RSI is near 45 and ATR is about 10 pips.
Support: 156.752, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355, 157.50
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.75 NY low and 156.69 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 157.03 swing high breaks the late-NY lower-highs line toward the 157.35 NY high
Return above the old 157.50 range floor would neutralise the breakdown
Lower highs from 157.355, basing in 156.69–157.04 band.
USDJPY broke under 157.50 during the Asia session on AI-led risk-off and softer US yields. London and NY then carved a 156.69–157.36 band, with a rejection at the 157.355 NY high and a lower high at 157.035. Late NY is drifting just under 156.90 and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48. The late-NY low at 156.752 held above the session low of 156.688.
Support: 156.752, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Break of the 156.688 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 156.752 late-NY low is the first test
Recovery through the 157.035 lower high and the 50% retrace near 157.05 puts the 157.355 NY high back in view
Asia and London sold off from 158.25 to the 156.69 window low as JPY outperformed on risk-off and falling US yields. The NY bounce met rejection at the 157.35 NY high, and a run of lower highs has pulled price back to the 156.75 session low. Late NY is compressing between 156.75 and the 157.03 swing high below ema20, retracing barely 20% of the NY swing, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 156.752, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.03 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the path to the 157.35 NY high
Failure to hold the 156.75 session low exposes the 156.69 window low and extends the downtrend
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC: a soft core print risks a squeeze back toward the 157.50 range floor
20:00 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 42 · price 156.855
Lower highs from 157.36 pressing onto flat lows near 156.75.
USD/JPY broke under 157.50 in Asia on risk-off and softer US yields. Since then it has held a 156.69–157.36 range, and NY has printed lower highs from the 157.36 session high while lows flatten near the 156.75 NY low. Late NY is compressing below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 11 pips.
Support: 156.75, 156.69
Resistance: 157.03, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.03 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the NY selling structure
Recovery through the 157.36 session high would return price toward the broken 157.50 floor
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 157.35, lows flattening at 156.75.
Asia broke down from the 158.25 Asian range high, London set the 156.69 day low, and NY's rebound was rejected at the 157.35 session high, a double top with the London high, as falling US yields and AI-led risk-off kept JPY bid. Late NY is printing lower highs under the trendline into the 156.75 NY low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 156.752, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355, 157.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.75 NY low exposes the 156.69 day low
M15 close above the 157.03 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC: core at or below 2.0% risks a snap back toward the 157.50 range floor; 2.2% or higher extends the JPY bid
US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 156.836
Lower highs since NY high, flat lows above day low.
USD/JPY lost the 157.50 floor in Asia on AI-led risk-off and softer US yields, with London printing the day low at 156.69. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.36 NY high and has since built lower highs down to 157.04, leaving price pinned near the 156.75 session low late in NY with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 156.75, 156.69
Resistance: 157.04, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.04 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 157.36 NY high
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC: a soft core print could materially shift this read
156.69–157.36 range since London open; NY lower highs pressing range base.
The Asia-session slide from 158.25 broke the old 157.50 floor as AI-led risk-off and lower US yields lifted JPY. London and NY have held a 156.69–157.36 range since. NY was rejected at the 157.35 session high and printed lower highs into the 156.75 NY low, with late-NY trade drifting just above the 156.69 day low.
Support: 156.752, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence out of the range
Close above the 157.03 lower high breaks the NY lower highs trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a snap back toward 157.35
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 37 · price 156.836
Lower-high sequence from 157.35 pressing the 156.77–156.80 session low.
USD/JPY broke the 157.50 range floor in Asia on AI-led risk-off and softer US yields, printing a day low at 156.69 in London. The NY open bounce stalled at 157.35 (ny high), and a lower-high chain down to 157.035 now has the 156.77–156.80 session low under a third test after London close.
Support: 156.78, 156.69
Resistance: 157.035, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Break above the falling trendline and the 157.035 lower high invalidates the lower-high structure; 157.35 ny high caps above
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a snap back toward 157.50
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 41 · price 156.892
156.69–157.36 range since London open; lower highs vs higher lows.
USD/JPY broke below the Asian range at London open as AI-led risk-off and falling UST yields lifted JPY, setting a 156.69 day low. Since then price has held a 156.69–157.36 range: NY printed lower highs from the 157.36 range top down to the 157.04 swing high, while the NY low around 156.78 held twice. Price sits at 156.89, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR near 12 pips.
Support: 156.78, 156.69
Resistance: 157.04, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.78 ny low exposes the 156.69 day low and a fresh lower-low
Close above the 157.04 swing high breaks the NY lower-high trendline and reopens the 157.36 range top
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC: a soft core print could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late in NY session · RSI 40 · price 156.965
Lower highs from 157.35 against rising lows above 156.69.
USD/JPY broke the 157.50 range floor during the Asia session on AI-led risk-off and softer UST yields, setting the day low at 156.69 in London. The NY session rebound stalled at the 157.35 NY high and has printed descending highs since, with the latest at 157.04. Rising lows have held near the 156.78 NY low, so the late-NY tape is compressing between the two trendlines.
Support: 156.78, 156.69
Resistance: 157.04, 157.35, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low breaks the rising lows and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.04 lower high breaks the descending highs; the 157.35 NY high and 157.50 range floor sit above
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a snap back toward 157.50
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce fading · RSI 40 · price 156.929
Lower highs since NY high, retesting intraday lows.
Asia and early London sold off from 158.25 to a 156.69 day low as JPY outperformed on AI-led risk-off and softer US yields. The bounce stalled at the 157.35 NY high, and late NY has printed lower highs down to 157.04. Price is back retesting the 156.77 swing low with RSI(14) near 40, below both EMAs.
Support: 156.77, 156.69
Resistance: 157.04, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.77 swing low exposes the 156.69 day low
Reclaim of the 157.04 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Recovery above the 157.35 NY high negates the post-NY lower-high sequence
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 38 · price 156.855
Lower highs inside 156.69–157.35 range.
The Asia-session break of the 157.50s became a ~150-pip slide. London set the day low at 156.69, and NY's bounce stalled at the NY high of 157.35 before lower highs pulled price back toward the NY low at 156.77, with RSI(14) near 38. JPY strength on AI-led risk-off and lower US yields is driving the move, and the 156.69–157.35 range is still intact late in the NY session.
Support: 156.77, 156.69
Resistance: 157.03, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.03 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs trendline
Supply capping at the 157.35 NY high keeps the range top intact
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
156.69–157.36 NY range after Asia/London lower-low sequence; higher low at 156.77.
USD/JPY slid ~155 pips from the 158.25 Asian high to a 156.69 day low through London as AI-led risk-off and lower US yields lifted the yen. The NY bounce stalled at the 157.36 ny high near the 38.2% retrace, and late NY now rotates around 157.00 between the 156.77 ny low and the 157.04 bounce high, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 156.774, 156.688
Resistance: 157.035, 157.50
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.69 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.36 ny high and the broken 157.50 range floor invalidates the downtrend read
Repeated failure at the 157.04 bounce high keeps the late-NY range intact
Range 156.69–157.36 since London; late-NY higher low at 156.77.
USD/JPY lost the 157.50 broken floor in the Asia session on yen-led risk-off and lower US yields, then printed a 156.69 day low in London. NY was capped at the 157.36 ny high and slid out of its 157.10–157.36 band after London close to a 156.77 ny low, a higher low. Price is retesting from below, under both EMAs, with RSI near 41.
Support: 156.77, 156.69
Resistance: 157.10, 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.10 ny range low returns price to the NY band toward the 157.36 ny high
Failure to hold the 156.77 ny low, then the 156.69 day low, confirms a lower-low
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (~6h, core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a sub-2% print puts the 157.50 broken floor back in view
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, recovery leg fading · RSI 34 · price 156.868
Lower high at 157.35, price back near the London lows.
USD/JPY sold off through Asia and London to a 156.69 day low as yen strength on risk-off and lower US yields dominated. The recovery leg was rejected twice at the 157.35 session high. After London close, price gave back about three-quarters of that bounce and now sits just above the 156.77 NY low, RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 156.774, 156.688
Resistance: 157.00, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.69 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Recapture of the 157.00 round number neutralises the post-London leg lower
Rejection at the 157.35 session high remains the cap on any bounce
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound faded · RSI 32 · price 156.88
Lower highs since 157.35 NY high, fresh NY low.
The Asia-London selloff broke the 157.50 range floor and set a day low at 156.69 in London, with JPY bid on AI-led risk-off and softer US yields. The NY rebound met rejection at the 157.35 NY high and has carved lower highs since, with the latest leg slicing back through the 157.00 round number to a fresh NY low at 156.85; RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 156.85, 156.76, 156.69
Resistance: 157.00, 157.35, 157.50
What it said to watch
Close back above the 157.00 round number and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the late-NY leg down
Failure to hold the 156.76 swing low cluster exposes the 156.69 day low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a sub-2.0% core print puts the 157.35 NY high and 157.50 range floor back in focus
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 44 · price 157.017
Lower highs since the 157.35 cap, testing 157.00.
The Asia-session slide from 158.25 extended to a 156.69 session low in London as JPY outperformed on risk-off and softer US yields. The NY rebound met rejection at the 157.35 session cap twice and has printed lower highs since, with price back at the 157.00 round number, about a 50% retrace of the rebound. RSI(14) sits near 44.
Support: 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.22, 157.35, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.69 session low
Close above the 157.22 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; 157.35 session cap sits above
Broken 157.50 range floor caps any extension beyond 157.35
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
USD/JPY fell about 155 pips from the Asian high at 158.25 to a 156.69 session low, breaking the 157.50 broken floor as JPY led on risk-off and lower US yields. The NY bounce met rejection at 157.35 (ny high), between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels, and has since printed lower highs. Price is now testing the 157.05 base just above the 157.00 psych handle into the London close.
Support: 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.23, 157.35, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 psych handle exposes the 156.69 session low
Recovery above the 157.23 lower high and the 157.35 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 157.50 broken floor sits above
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Down on the day, intraday rebound stalling · RSI 48 · price 157.137
NY range with lower highs over a flat 157.06 base.
USD/JPY sold off through Asia and London on falling US yields and BoJ hike bets, broke the old 157.50 range floor and printed a London low at 156.69. It then rebounded to a 157.36 NY high after the US claims beat. Since then NY has carved lower highs against a flat 157.06 NY range low, holding just above the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 48 and price just under EMA20/50 after London close.
Support: 157.06, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.06 NY range low and the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.69 London low
Break of the lower-high trendline and a reclaim of the 157.36 NY high puts the old 157.50 range floor back in play from below
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 156.94 would erase most of the NY rebound
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.355 compressing onto the 157.07 NY low.
Falling US yields drove USD/JPY through the 157.50 range floor in Asia, and London printed a 156.69 session low before the rebound stalled. The 157.355 session high was rejected twice in NY, and late NY is compressing under lower highs onto the 38.2% retrace and the 157.07 NY low, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 157.07, 157.00, 156.688
Resistance: 157.355, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.07 ny low and the 157.00 round number reopens the 156.69 session low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 157.355 session high puts the 157.50 range floor back in play
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (~8h, core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 157.201
Double rejection at 157.35, NY range 157.10–157.36.
USD/JPY lost the 157.29 Asian range low going into London as US yields fell, printing a day low of 156.69 late in the London session. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.35 ny high, matching the London bounce high and sitting between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 158.25–156.69 drop. Price is mid-range between the 157.10 ny low and the 157.36 ny high, above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 157.10, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 ny high puts the 157.50 range floor and 50% fib in play
Failure to hold the 157.10 ny low reopens the 157.00 round number and the 156.69 day low
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after London low · RSI 52 · price 157.111
NY coil between higher lows and a flat cap below the 38.2% retrace.
Falling US yields and a firmer yen drove the Asia-to-London selloff from 158.34 to a 156.69 day low before the NY session bounce. Price is now pinned between a 157.10 range floor and the 157.35 fib 38.2% cap, with higher lows off 157.02 and RSI(14) neutral near 52 into London close.
Support: 157.10, 157.025, 156.688
Resistance: 157.355, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.10 range floor and 157.02 higher low reopens the 156.69 day low
M15 close above the 157.35 fib 38.2% cap exposes the 157.60 asia shelf, the base of the Asia-session consolidation before the breakdown
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalling under 157.35 · RSI 56 · price 157.206
Higher lows off 156.69 in NY, two rejections at the London high.
USDJPY broke the 157.50 range floor in Asia on falling US yields and BoJ hike bets, and London extended the slide to a 156.69 day low. The NY rebound after the claims beat built rising lows, but price has twice been rejected at the 157.35 London high and sits under the EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 157.10, 157.03, 156.69
Resistance: 157.35, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.35 London high opens a retest of the 157.59 Asia low
Break of the 157.10 NY low snaps the rising lows line and exposes the 157.03 swing low
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (~9h) could reset the read; a move back toward the 156.69 day low stays in play on a beat
Higher lows off the 156.69 session low, capped at 157.35.
USDJPY broke the Asian range around the 157.60 asia floor and slid to a 156.69 session low in London as US yields fell. NY has printed higher lows at 157.03 and 157.10 but was rejected twice at 157.35, the early-London high, close to the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop. Price is holding just above ema20 near 157.15, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 157.10, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.35, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.10 higher low breaks the NY recovery sequence and exposes the 157.00 round number
Loss of 157.00 puts the 156.69 session low back in play
A clean break above the london high at 157.35 brings the 157.60 asia floor back as overhead resistance
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 156.69 day low, capped at 157.35 swing high.
USD/JPY broke the 157.60 broken shelf late in Asia as US yields eased and BoJ commentary stayed hawkish, then made a 156.69 day low in London. Higher lows have built along a rising trendline since, with the claims beat adding a lift into early NY. The 157.35 swing high has rejected twice near the 38.2% level of the drop fib, and price sits just under EMA50.
Support: 157.10, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.355, 157.47, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.35 swing high opens the 50% fib at 157.47 and the 157.60 broken shelf
Break of the 157.10 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.00 round number and the 156.69 day low
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery off the low · RSI 61 · price 157.258
Higher lows from 156.69, capped at the London high.
Softer US yields drove USD/JPY from the Tokyo high at 158.25 through the old range floor in the mid-157.00s to a 156.69 day low in late London. Early NY has built a higher-low chain off that low, but the bounce stalled at 157.36. That level matches the London high and the 38.2% retracement of the drop, and the 13:45 bar rejected it, leaving price pinned just under EMA50.
Support: 157.10, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 london high clears the double rejection and puts the 157.50 old range floor back in play
Loss of the 157.10 higher low and the rising trendline unwinds the NY recovery, exposing the 157.00 round number and the 156.69 day low
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a sub-2% print risks a push back into the old range
Lower-low chain into the session low, now a higher low with a stall at the London high.
Asia and London took USDJPY roughly 156 pips lower, from 158.25 to a 156.69 session low, as softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk weighed. A rebound off that low has printed a higher low at 157.03. The first hour of NY has retested the 157.36 London high, which sits near EMA50, and stalled there with RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 157.03, 156.69
Resistance: 157.36, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.59 asian low in view
Loss of the 157.03 higher low and the rebound trendline returns focus to the 156.69 session low
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 156.69 session low, testing 38.2% fib retrace.
USD/JPY lost the 158.00s in the Asia session and slid to a 156.69 session low late in London as US yields eased. Since then a higher-low chain along the rebound line has lifted price into the NY open, where the bounce high at 157.29 sits on the 38.2% fib retrace, just below the 157.36 london high.
Support: 157.03, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.29, 157.36, 157.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 london high opens the fib 50% at 157.47
Break of the 157.03 higher low and the 157.00 psych level puts the rebound line under pressure and refocuses the 156.69 session low
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, early rebound off day low · RSI 60 · price 157.104
Lower highs through London; small higher-low sequence since the 156.688 low.
USD/JPY broke below the Asian range low into London on softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk. A brief break of the 156.76 shelf to a 156.688 day low reversed sharply, and price now holds just above the 157.00 round number into the NY session, with higher lows at 156.968 and 157.025. The rebound has stalled at the 157.23 swing high, below the 38.2% of the drop fib (157.28) and the 157.358 London high; RSI(14) is near 60.
Support: 157.00, 156.688
Resistance: 157.23, 157.358, 157.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number unwinds the higher-low sequence and puts the 156.688 day low back in play
M15 close above the 157.23 swing high opens the 157.358 London high, then the 157.50 broken range area
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a sub-2% print as risking a retrace toward the old range
Lower highs at 157.36 and 157.23 after a 156.69 session low.
USD/JPY extended the Asia slide through London on softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk, printing a session low at 156.69 before a sharp bounce. The rebound stalled at the 157.23 NY high, roughly 80% of the London leg and a lower high under the 157.36 london high. Price is now back testing the 157.00 round number, hugging EMA20.
Support: 157.00, 156.76, 156.69
Resistance: 157.23, 157.36
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.23 NY high and the 157.36 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.76 london base and the 156.69 session low
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce from day low · RSI 59 · price 157.202
Lower-high chain broken after a sweep of the day low, rebound testing first retracement.
The Tokyo-to-London slide from 158.25 dipped through the 156.76 lows to a 156.69 day low late in London. Softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk had firmed JPY. A sharp reversal at 11:30 UTC then broke the descending trendline and the 157.10 minor pivot, and price is now pressing the 38.2% fib near 157.28, just under the 157.36 swing high.
Support: 157.10, 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.36, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 swing high opens the 50% fib near 157.47 and the 157.59 tokyo low
Failure back below the 157.10 minor pivot and 157.00 psych handle returns focus to the 156.69 day low
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) reaction still unfolding early in the NY session
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
London lower-high chain broken on rebound; higher low at 156.97 above 156.69 sweep low.
London took USDJPY below the 157.59 asian low to a session low at 156.69 as US yields eased and hawkish BoJ comments lifted the yen. A late-London sweep of the 156.76 base reversed sharply and broke the descending trendline off the 157.36 swing high. Price is pressing the 157.17 recent high near the 23.6% fib at the NY open, holding above the 157.00 round number.
Support: 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.17, 157.36, 157.59
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) land in the current bar and can materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.36 swing high would clear the 38.2% fib (157.28) and put the 157.59 asian low in view
Rejection at the 157.17 recent high followed by a close back below the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.69 session low
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next major yen risk after the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows through London; sharp rebound off 156.69 capped near 61.8%.
USDJPY slid from 158.25 in Asia through the 157.50 range floor as US yields eased and BoJ hike bets firmed the yen, with London extending to a session low at 156.688. The late-London rebound has stalled three bars running at the 157.10 rebound high, the 61.8% retrace of the London leg. Price is pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 45 ahead of NY open.
Support: 156.97, 156.688
Resistance: 157.106, 157.358, 157.50
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) land in the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.10 rebound high opens the 157.36 london high, then the 157.50 range floor
Failure to hold the 156.97 pivot exposes the 156.688 session low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Lower highs/lower lows since Asia; late-London bounce capped at 61.8% retrace.
USD/JPY extended the Asia-session break of the 157.50 range floor through London to a session low of 156.688, with softer US yields and BoJ hike bets keeping the yen bid. The late-London bounce stalled at the 157.105 bounce high, the 61.8% retrace of the move from the 157.358 london high. Price now sits on the 157.00 psych level and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 157.00, 156.76, 156.688
Resistance: 157.105, 157.358, 157.50
What it said to watch
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) land in the first hour of NY and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.105 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 157.358 london high, then the 157.50 range floor
Failure to hold 157.00 psych exposes the 156.76 swing low and the 156.688 session low
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) is the overnight risk to the yen breakout
Lower-high chain from 158.25 Asian high; descending trendline broken on the 11:30 UTC bar.
USDJPY slid through the Asian range and London, losing the 157.50 range floor on softer US yields and BoJ hike bets to a 156.69 session low. The last bar swept the 156.76 lows and reversed above the 156.97 prior high, breaking the descending trendline from the 157.36 swing high. Price now sits at the fib 61.8 near 157.10, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 156.97, 156.69
Resistance: 157.10, 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 156.97 prior high fails the trendline break and reopens the 156.69 session low
Acceptance above the 157.10 fib 61.8 exposes the 157.36 swing high; the lower-high chain stays intact until then
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands in the first hour of NY and could reset the read
A reclaim of the 157.50 range floor would neutralise the breakdown; Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC is the overnight risk
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 32 · price 156.869
Lower highs from 157.36; tight base 156.76–156.97 above session low.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.25 Asian high through the 157.50 range floor, and London extended to a 156.69 session low as softer US yields and BoJ hike bets lifted the yen. Price has since snapped back above the 156.76 prior lows and is coiling under the 156.97 swing high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the London high leg. RSI(14) is near 32.
Support: 156.76, 156.69
Resistance: 156.97, 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.97 swing high puts the 157.02 50% fib and 157.36 london high in play
Break below 156.69 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold 156.76 prior lows reopens the session low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next yen catalyst; 157.50 range floor is the upside reference
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into a base · RSI 29 · price 156.81
Lower highs from 157.36, compressing into 156.76–156.97 range.
London extended the Asia selloff through the 157.04 asian low as softer US yields and BoJ hike bets kept JPY bid. Lower highs from the 157.36 swing high have since compressed into a 156.76–156.97 range, with the session low absorbing four tests and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 156.76, 156.50
Resistance: 156.97, 157.04, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.76 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 156.50 round number
Close above the 156.97 range top and the lower-highs trendline opens a correction toward the 157.04 asian low, then the 157.36 swing high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range in either direction
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 156.92
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.25; tight base above 156.76.
USD/JPY sold through the Asian session from 158.25 and broke below 157.00 at London open. It then capped at a 157.36 lower high, near the 38.2% of the asia-london leg, before extending to a 156.76 session low. Mid-London, price is compressing between the session low and the 156.97 range top with RSI(14) near 39, as softer US yields and BoJ hike bets keep the yen bid.
Support: 156.76
Resistance: 156.97, 157.36, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.76 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 157.36 lower high breaks the intraday downtrend structure, with the 157.60 asia shelf next above
Acceptance above the 156.97 range top would mark the first higher high since the London open low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields; Japan CPI follows at 23:30 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 157.50 range floor.
Asia session sold through the 157.50 range floor on softer US yields and a firm JPY. London open spiked to the 156.82 london low, rebounded to the 157.36 london high, then printed lower highs into a triple-tested 156.76 session low. The late-morning bounce is pressing the 157.00 round number at the 38.2% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 156.82, 156.76
Resistance: 157.00, 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number and 38.2% fib exposes the 157.36 london high
Failure to hold the 156.76 session low extends the lower-low chain after the 156.82 london low gave way
Reclaim of the 157.50 range floor would negate the range break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift this read; Japan core CPI follows at 23:30 UTC
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 33 · price 156.765
LH/LL chain since the Asia-session break; London printing fresh session lows below 157.00.
USD/JPY broke the Asian range lower from 03:00 UTC and extended through London. It lost 157.00 and the London-open low at 156.822, printing a session low at 156.764 as softer US yields and a firm JPY weigh. Lower highs at the 157.358 bounce high (near the 38.2% fib) and 157.03 define the lower-high trendline, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 156.764, 156.50
Resistance: 156.822, 157.03, 157.358
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.822 London low turns the latest break into a false break
Close above the 157.03 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the LH/LL chain
Acceptance below the 156.764 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is overnight event risk
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken range floor.
USD/JPY broke the 157.60 range floor of the Asian consolidation late in Asia, then cut through the 157.00 round number in London to a session low at 156.77. Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks are driving the move. Every bounce since the 157.36 bounce high has printed a lower high under a descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 156.769, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.358, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.00 round number and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 156.77 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 psych level
Recovery through the 157.36 bounce high brings the 157.60 range floor (61.8% fib zone) back into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is the next JPY catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows below psych 157.00, holding above london low.
Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish remarks drove a heavy Asia slide that broke the October range floor. The pair hit a 156.82 london low at the London open, and the bounce stalled at 157.36, the 38.2% fib of the overnight drop. Since then London has carved steadily lower highs back under psych 157.00, with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 156.82, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.36
What it said to watch
Break below the 156.82 london low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 156.50 round number next
A close back above psych 157.00 and the descending trendline would stall the London downswing; the 157.36 bounce high (38.2% fib) remains the larger cap
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; Japan CPI follows at 23:30 UTC
Lower highs below broken Asian low; London low retest in progress.
Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish remarks extended the slide: price broke the 157.59 Asian low and hit a 156.82 session low at the London open. The bounce stalled at the 157.36 lower high, on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London drop, and price is back near the session low with the 157.00 round number capping. RSI(14) is near 28, short-term stretched but not extreme.
Support: 156.822, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.358, 157.592
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.822 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 156.50 round number
Recovery above the 157.00 round number and the 157.358 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 157.592 asian low would mark today's range break as a false break
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC; Japan National CPI 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 36 · price 157.045
Lower high at 157.358 below Asia high, testing 157.00.
The Asia selloff from 158.249 ran to a 156.822 session low at London open on falling US yields and hawkish BoJ talk. The London rebound was rejected at the 157.358 fib 38.2, leaving a lower high, and price is back on the 157.00 round number with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.00, 156.822
Resistance: 157.358, 157.50, 157.76
What it said to watch
A break of the 156.822 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 157.358 fib 38.2 and the lower-highs trendline exposes the 157.50 range floor
Recovery above the 157.76 swing high would invalidate the Asia selloff structure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read in NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce capped at 38.2% retracement.
Asia-session selling on lower US yields and hawkish BoJ talk extended into London open. Price broke the 157.50 range floor and printed a 156.82 session low before bouncing. The rebound stalled at the 157.36 bounce high, the 38.2% retracement of the selloff, and price is back on the 157.05 swing low with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 157.05, 157.00, 156.822
Resistance: 157.358, 157.50, 157.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.82 session low
Reclaim of the 157.36 bounce high and the descending trendline would put the 157.50 range floor back in play
157.76 asia shelf caps any deeper retracement; holding below it keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY event risk
Lower highs from 158.25; post-sweep rebound capped near 38.2% fib.
Asia sold off from 158.25 through the prior-day low and the 157.70 breakdown shelf as US yields slid. London open swept the asian low to a 156.82 session low before a sharp rebound stalled at the 38.2% fib near 157.36. Price is now holding 157.13–157.36 above the pullback low, still below EMA20, with RSI(14) back near 37 from sub-30.
Support: 157.13, 157.04, 156.82
Resistance: 157.36, 157.46, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.36 (38.2% fib) opens the 157.46 swing high and the 157.70 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 157.13 pullback low puts the 157.04 asian low back in play
Break of the 156.82 session low resumes the lower-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk
Lower highs from 158.25; 157.50 floor broken, retrace capped at 157.36.
Sliding US yields drove an Asia-session leg from the 158.25 high through the 157.50 range floor, before London open washed out to the 156.82 london low and saw sharp rejection. The bounce stalled at the 157.36 bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib and the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 33 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.04, 156.82
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.50 range floor, then the 157.59 shelf base, would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the 157.04 swing low re-exposes the 156.82 london low
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is the next major yen catalyst
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp rebound off London open low · RSI 39 · price 157.307
Lower highs through Asia, London-open low rejected, retracing the drop.
Softer US yields drove a steady Asia-session slide below the 157.50 range floor. The London open extended the drop to the 156.82 london low before a sharp rejection of about 50 pips. Price is now testing the 157.33 rebound high, near the 50% retrace of the 157.76–156.82 leg, after the 157.04 retest low held on the pullback.
Support: 157.04, 156.82
Resistance: 157.33, 157.46, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.46 ema20 pivot (61.8% retrace) reopens the 157.59 asian shelf and neutralises the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 157.33 rebound high followed by a break of the 157.04 retest low re-exposes the 156.82 london low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since Asia; London-open sweep to 156.82 rejected.
Asia sold off from 158.25 to the 157.59 Asian low on softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk. Early London then broke the 157.50 range floor and swept to 156.82, with the sweep low rejected by a full-bodied bar back to 157.17, the 38.2% retrace of the breakdown leg. RSI(14) has recovered to ~35 from sub-25.
Support: 157.04, 156.82
Resistance: 157.30, 157.46, 157.59
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.30 breakdown level (50% retrace) brings the 157.46 bounce high and 157.59 Asian low into play
Failure to hold the 157.04 swing low reopens the 156.82 sweep low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next yen catalyst
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 19 · price 156.957
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.25 Asian high; 157.50 range floor broken.
Falling US yields and hawkish BoJ commentary from Himino drove a 140-pip slide from the 158.25 Asian high. The 157.62–157.76 Asian base and its 157.59 asian low gave way at 05:15 UTC, taking out the 157.50 range floor, and London open printed a 156.82 session low. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold, and price is pinned just under the 157.00 round number with a lower high at 157.46.
Support: 156.82
Resistance: 157.00, 157.46, 157.59
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 157.00 round number would mark the first stall in the selloff
Recovery through the 157.46 lower high and the fib 50% near 157.54 toward the 157.59 asian low would turn the break into a possible false break
A break below the 156.82 session low extends the lower-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into London open · RSI 22 · price 157.12
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia broke the prior-day low and the 157.50 range floor.
Sliding US yields drove Asia session selling through the prior-day low at 157.84 and the 157.50 range floor, extending to a 157.04 session low into London open. RSI(14) near 22 is oversold, and the bounce so far is capped below the 157.46 lower high, just under the fib 38.2% retracement at 157.50.
Support: 157.04, 157.00
Resistance: 157.46, 157.50, 157.84
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.50 range floor and fib 38.2% would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.04 session low exposes the 157.00 round number
Reclaim of 157.84, the prior low, would undo the Asia breakdown
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next major yen risk
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into late Asia · RSI 21 · price 157.155
Lower highs and lower lows; 157.50 range floor broken, price near session low.
The Asia sell-off from the 158.25 session high took out the prior-day low at 157.84, then broke the 157.59–157.76 shelf and the 157.50 range floor. Softer US yields and hawkish BoJ comments from Himino lifted the yen. Price sits just above the 157.06 session low into London open, with lower highs capping at the 157.46 bounce high and RSI(14) near 21.
Support: 157.06, 157.00
Resistance: 157.46, 157.59, 157.76
What it said to watch
Holding below the 157.46 bounce high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
A break of the 157.06 session low exposes the 157.00 round number
Recovery above the 157.59 shelf low puts price back near the broken range floor; a reclaim of the 157.76 shelf top invalidates the breakdown read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 19 · price 157.206
Lower highs from the 158.25 Asia high; 157.50 range floor broken.
Late in the Asia session, USDJPY has unwound the 158.25 early-session high and broken the 157.50 range floor, printing a session low at 157.12. Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks are firming the yen. RSI(14) near 19 is oversold, and the 157.46 bounce high is the first cap heading into the London open; the 157.59 prior low and the 38.2% retrace sit just above.
Support: 157.12, 157.00
Resistance: 157.46, 157.50, 157.59
What it said to watch
Recapture of the 157.50 range floor would turn the break into a false break; a move back through the 157.59 prior low strengthens that read
Failure to hold the 157.12 session low exposes the 157.00 round number
London open in 30 min; a close above the 157.46 bounce high would mark the first higher high since the selloff
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift the yields-driven move
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.25 Asian high; 157.50 range floor broken.
USD/JPY broke the 157.50 range floor in the final hour before London open. That extends the slide from the 158.25 Asian high to a 157.29 session low, driven by softer US yields and hawkish BoJ talk. Price is coiling just above the low with RSI(14) near 22, and the descending highs trendline and the 157.76 shelf top cap the structure above.
Support: 157.29, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.76
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the 157.50 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 157.29 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.00 round number
A rebound into the 157.66–157.77 zone (38.2–50% of the Asian leg) meets the shelf top and descending highs trendline
London open within the hour; US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 19 · price 157.312
Lower highs from 158.25 Asia session high; 157.62–157.76 consolidation broken lower.
Asia session selling took USD/JPY from the 158.25 session high, through the 157.59 morning low and below the 157.50 range floor, as lower US yields and hawkish BoJ talk lifted JPY. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold heading into London open, and price is holding just above the 157.29 session low.
Support: 157.29, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.59, 157.76
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 157.50 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break.
A break of the 157.29 session low leaves the 157.00 round number as the next reference.
A move back above the 157.76 consol high and the descending trendline negates the lower-high sequence; 157.59 morning low is first overhead.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 158.25; 157.59–157.76 consolidation broken lower.
Asia session sold off steadily from the 158.25 high on softer US yields and Himino's hawkish lean. Price broke the 157.59 asia low and the 157.76 consol top box, then cut through the 157.50 range floor to a session low at 157.36 ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold after two outsized down bars.
Support: 157.36, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.59, 157.76
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 157.50 range floor would mark the break below it as a false break
Hold below 157.36 session low keeps the lower-low chain intact, with 157.00 round number next in view
Return above the 157.76 consol top and the descending trendline from 158.25 invalidates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this read; Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY catalyst
Lower highs from 158.25; tight base 157.59–157.76 under prior low.
The Asia session reversed from 158.25 to a 157.59 Asia low as softer US yields weighed. The move broke through yesterday's 157.84 prior low, which now aligns with the 38.2% fib. Price has since held a 157.59–157.76 consolidation and is pressing the Asia low again into London open, with RSI(14) near 27 but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 157.592, 157.50
Resistance: 157.76, 157.837
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.59 Asia low exposes the 157.50 range floor
A close back above the 157.76 consol top neutralises the pressure on the lows
Reclaiming the 157.84 prior low / 38.2% fib would mark a failed break
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.25; tight 157.59–157.76 pause after range break.
Asia session extended the slide from the 158.25 high and cut through yesterday's 157.84 prior low to a 157.59 session low. Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish lean drove the move. Price has since compressed between 157.59 and the 157.76 pause high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.76, 157.84, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 157.76 pause high, then the 157.84 prior low (38.2% fib of the Asia selloff), undercuts the breakdown
Failure to hold the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Recovery through the 158.00 round number would neutralise the Asia selloff
London open in ~2h, US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Tokyo selloff · RSI 30 · price 157.722
Lower highs from 158.25; tight consolidation 157.59–157.76 under prior-day low.
Tokyo session sold off from the 158.25 asia high and broke yesterday's 157.84 prior low, printing a 157.59 session low against a backdrop of hawkish BoJ talk and softer US yields. Price is now boxed 157.59–157.76 below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 30 and the consol top sitting on the 23.6% retracement ahead of London open.
Support: 157.592, 157.50
Resistance: 157.76, 157.837, 158.249
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.84 prior low, which also aligns with the 38.2% fib, would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor of the 12-session range
Close above the 157.76 consol top would mark the first higher high since the drop
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC follows
Lower highs from 158.25; tight 157.59–157.76 base after break of prior low.
Asia session sold off from the 158.25 Asia high and cut through yesterday's 157.84 prior low in the 03:00 UTC bar, with falling US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks behind the move. Price has since compressed between the 157.59 session low and a 157.76 range cap, RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.76, 157.84, 158.25
What it said to watch
Close back above 157.84, the broken prior low and 38.2% fib of the Asia drop, would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Japan Sept CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY trigger
Lower highs from 158.25 Asia high; prior-day low broken, tight base 157.59–157.76.
Asia session reversed from the 158.25 high and broke yesterday's 157.84 prior low, printing a session low at 157.59 as hawkish BoJ commentary and softer US yields kept JPY supported. Price is now compressing between 157.59 and the 157.76 bounce high just above the 157.50 range floor, with RSI(14) near 28 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 157.592, 157.50
Resistance: 157.763, 157.837, 157.914
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.76 bounce high and back through the 157.84 prior low (38.2% fib of the Asia selloff) negates the breakdown
Reclaim of the 157.91 breakdown level (50% fib) would mark the Asia selloff as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
London open in ~2.5h could set a new session range
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC; Japan Sept CPI 23:30 UTC
Lower highs from 158.25; prior low 157.84 broken, small base forming above 157.59.
The Asia session faded the 158.25 early high and broke yesterday's prior low at 157.84 on the 03:00 UTC bar, extending to a 157.59 session low as JPY stays firm on hawkish BoJ talk. RSI(14) near 22 and the bounce high at 157.76 is capped beneath the falling highs trendline, with the 157.50 range floor just below.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.76, 157.84, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.84 prior low turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Break of the falling highs trendline through 157.76 bounce high shifts the read to a corrective bounce toward the 158.00 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.25 Asia high; prior-day low broken, basing at 157.59–157.72.
Mid-Asia session, price slid from the 158.25 Asia high in a lower-high sequence, as JPY stayed firm on hawkish BoJ talk and softer US yields. It broke yesterday's 157.84 NY prior low and printed a 157.59 session low, then stalled there. RSI(14) is near 24, and the 157.84 prior low sits at the 38.2% retrace of the Asia selloff.
Support: 157.592, 157.50
Resistance: 157.837, 158.00, 158.249
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 157.84 prior low and the Asia lower-high trendline would negate the breakdown; 158.00 round number caps above that
M15 close below the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor of the 12-session consolidation
Reclaim of the 158.25 Asia high would undo the Asia selloff entirely
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC in NY session could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 18 · price 157.659
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain below the prior-day low.
The Asia session sold off from the 158.25 asian high through the 158 pivot and yesterday's 157.84 prior low, printing a 157.59 session low. Softer US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks kept the yen bid. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold, and the 157.50 range floor sits just below, with the 38.2% retrace of the sell-off lining up with 157.84.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.84, 158.25
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.59 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of the 157.84 prior low (38.2% fib) would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close back above the 158 pivot negates the Asia sell-off; the 158.25 asian high sits above
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via Treasury yields
Lower highs off the 158.25 Asia high; prior-day low at 157.84 broken.
Tokyo trade has unwound from the 158.25 Asia high in a chain of lower highs under a descending trendline. The pair cut through the 158.00 round number and yesterday's 157.84 prior low, then printed a session low at 157.67 as Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks and softer US yields weighed. RSI(14) near 14 is stretched, with the 157.50 range floor the next reference below.
Support: 157.67, 157.50
Resistance: 157.84, 158.00, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.84 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.67 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor of the multi-session band
Descending trendline near 157.92 and the 158.00 round number cap any rebound; a reclaim of both undoes the lower-high chain
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 19 · price 157.733
Asia lower-high sequence, prior low broken.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY has stepped lower in a steady series of lower highs off the 158.25 asian high. BoJ's Himino calling underlying inflation 'almost at 2%' and soft US yields form the backdrop. The latest full bar broke yesterday's 157.84 prior low on a 21-pip range and printed a 157.67 session low, with RSI(14) near 19 and the 157.50 range floor about 23 pips below.
Support: 157.673, 157.50
Resistance: 157.837, 158.249
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.84 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.67 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of the 158 pivot breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read in NY hours
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Tokyo · RSI 27 · price 157.861
Asian high 158.249 capped; 158.00 pivot lost, testing prior low.
Tokyo session put in a chain of lower highs from the 158.249 Asian high and cut through the 158 pivot, consistent with the hawkish Himino read and softer US yields. Price is now probing yesterday's 157.837 prior low, the 12:00 UTC swing that started the NY rebound, with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 157.837, 157.50
Resistance: 158.101, 158.249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.837 prior low extends the downtrend toward the 157.50 range floor
Recovery back above the 158 pivot and the 158.101 lower high breaks the descending-resistance line
London open sets the next test of whether Tokyo's selling extends or stalls at the prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday downswing inside a broader 157.84–158.34 range · RSI 31 · price 158.005
Lower high at 158.25 under 158.34; Asia session pressing 158.00.
Asia session met rejection at the 158.25 Asia high after the Tokyo open and has slid to the 158.00 psych level. That high sits below yesterday's 158.34 prior high, leaving a lower high, and the drop has retraced about two-thirds of the NY rally from 157.84 as Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks lifted the yen. RSI(14) is near 31 and the 158.10 broken low now sits overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.10, 158.25, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 psych level opens the path to the 157.84 prior low
Reclaim of the 158.10 broken low negates the Asia session breakdown
Close above the 158.25 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, testing 158.00.
The late-NY spike to the 158.34 ny high was rejected. Asia has since stepped lower from the 158.25 asian high in a clean lower-high sequence along the Asia downtrend line, with Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks pulling the pair back onto the 158.00 pivot. Price is now below the prior NY lows and the 61.8% level of the 157.84–158.34 fib, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.84
Resistance: 158.10, 158.25, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.10 lower high and the Asia downtrend line breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 158.00 pivot exposes the 157.84 london low; the 78.6% level of the 157.84–158.34 fib sits near 157.95
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY event risk
02:01 UTC
Sideways, Asia drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 158.095
Lower highs off Asia high, testing overnight low.
Early in the Asia session, price was rejected at the 158.249 Asia high and printed a run of lower highs. It is now back at the 158.047 Asia low and the 50% fib of yesterday's 157.837 London low to 158.342 NY high rally. The pair is still pinned around the 158.00 round number after Himino's hawkish remarks capped it, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.047, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.249, 158.342
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.047 Asia low and the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.837 London low
Reclaim of the 158.249 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.342 NY high
Descending resistance from the NY high through the Asia high caps rebounds while intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a broader range · RSI 42 · price 158.088
Lower highs off the Asia high, holding the 50% fib.
Early Asia session: Tokyo opened with a push to the asia high at 158.25, met rejection, and has since printed four lower highs back to the 50% retracement of yesterday's 157.84–158.34 NY rally. Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks keep USD/JPY pinned near the 158 pivot, with the rollover low at 158.05 the nearest floor and RSI(14) drifting near 42.
Support: 158.047, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.249, 158.342
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 rollover low opens the 158 pivot and the 61.8% fib near 158.03
Break below 158.00 exposes the 157.84 prior low, the double low from London-NY yesterday
Recovery above the 158.25 asia high negates the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.34 ny high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could reset the NY session range
Lower high under NY peak, testing Tokyo session low.
Early Tokyo session lifted USDJPY to a 158.25 session high that was rejected, printing a lower high under the 158.34 NY high. Price now sits on the 158.09 session low, near the 50% retrace of the NY rally fib, with Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks keeping the pair inside the 157.84–158.34 daily range around the 158.00 pivot.
Support: 158.094, 158.00, 157.837
Resistance: 158.249, 158.342
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.09 session low exposes the 158.00 pivot and the 158.02 NY pullback low
Reclaim of the 158.25 session high breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 158.34 NY high
Loss of the 158.00 pivot shifts focus to the day low at 157.84
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop · RSI 54 · price 158.143
Asian range 158.05–158.25 inside the prior day's 157.84–158.34 range.
Asia is holding a 158.05–158.25 range. The push to the 158.25 Asian high faded back to 158.14, echoing the NY rejection at 158.34 after the NY rally off 157.84. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 54, while Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks keep the yen supported.
Support: 158.094, 158.047, 157.837
Resistance: 158.249, 158.342, 158.40
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.09 higher low exposes the 158.05 Asian low and the 61.8% NY rally fib near 158.03
M15 close above the 158.25 Asian high reopens the 158.34 NY high and the 158.40 range cap that has capped recent rallies
Loss of 158.03 shifts focus back to the 157.84 day low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia consolidation 158.09–158.25 inside the NY rally range.
NY hours reversed the London selloff from the 157.84 london low to a 158.34 ny high, then faded into the rollover low at 158.05, holding above the 61.8% retrace. Early Asia is building rising lows but met rejection at the 158.25 session high, with price parked near the 38.2% fib on BoJ Himino's hawkish tone and a soft USD.
Support: 158.094, 158.047, 157.837
Resistance: 158.249, 158.342, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 session high reopens the 158.34 ny high and the 158.40 cap
Break of the 158.09 session low and the rising-lows trendline exposes the 158.05 rollover low
Loss of the rollover low takes out the 61.8% retrace and the NY rally structure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in Asia · RSI 62 · price 158.223
Higher low at 158.094 above rollover low; testing 61.8% of NY drop.
Early Asia session has lifted USDJPY from the 158.047 rollover low, printing a higher low at the 158.094 Asia low, and price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 158.342 NY high at about 158.23. RSI(14) sits near 62. The NY spike faded quickly, with a soft-undertone dollar and hawkish BoJ commentary keeping the 158.40 rally cap intact; the NY swing low at 158.016 anchors the day's recovery from 157.837.
Support: 158.094, 158.047, 158.016
Resistance: 158.342, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.342 NY high puts the 158.40 rally cap in play, an area where recent rallies have stalled
Loss of the 158.094 Asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.047 rollover low
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 158.23 would leave the NY high as a lower-high cap
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows inside a range · RSI 58 · price 158.19
Higher lows from 158.047 rollover low; capped below 158.342 NY high.
Early Asia session has built higher lows from the 158.047 rollover low and printed a new Asia high at 158.224. Price remains below the 158.342 NY high after the bounce off the 157.837 day low, and the pullback held the 50–61.8% zone of that NY rally. USD/JPY stays pinned near 158.00, with hawkish BoJ talk and intervention risk capping it against a soft dollar.
Support: 158.094, 158.047, 157.837
Resistance: 158.224, 158.342, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.342 ny high exposes the 158.40 range cap flagged as a recent intraday ceiling
Break below the 158.094 swing low ends the Asia higher-low chain; the 158.047 rollover low sits next
Loss of the 157.837 day low invalidates the NY rally retracement read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Flat, rotating near EMA20 · RSI 51 · price 158.139
Tight early-Asia range under rejected late-NY spike.
Early Asia trade is rotating in a tight 158.05–158.17 band, with a higher low at 158.09 off the rollover session low and the 158.17 session high capping. Price is flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51. The late-NY spike to the 158.34 ny high was rejected after Wednesday's slide to the 157.84 day low, which came as BoJ's Himino flagged inflation risk. The 158.39 Wednesday Asia high still caps the window.
Support: 158.094, 158.047, 157.837
Resistance: 158.17, 158.342, 158.389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 session high opens a retest of the 158.34 ny high, then the 158.39 Wednesday Asia high
Loss of the 158.09 higher low and the 158.05 session low breaks the Asia higher-low line and exposes the 157.84 day low
Price holding the 158.03–158.09 zone (50–61.8% of the day low–ny high fib) keeps the range read intact
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, and Japan CPI later Thursday, could materially shift this read