USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 23 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum fading late NY · RSI 41 · price 156.815
Lower highs inside a 156.81–156.92 late-NY range after a 156.31–157.08 rebound.
After the 156.31 NY low, the dollar recovery on the US PMI beats topped at the 157.08 NY high. Price has since compressed into a 156.81–156.92 range with a run of lower highs, and now sits on the range low near the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib, just under EMA20/50. The 157.16 Asian high and 156.55 London low frame the day; ATR has shrunk to about 6 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 156.81, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.92, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.81 range low opens the 50% NY rally fib near 156.70, then the 156.55 London low
Close above the 156.92 range top reopens the 157.08 NY high and the 157.16 Asian high
Weekend gap risk at the open, with BoJ and FOMC decisions next week as the larger drivers
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; thin late-Friday liquidity keeps ranges compressed
20:31 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling into late NY · RSI 45 · price 156.843
Rising lows vs lower highs, late-NY compression.
The rebound from the 156.08 Asia low after Tokyo CPI has stalled under the 157.16 session high. US PMI and Michigan beats lifted the pair off the 156.31 pre-NY low, with rising lows at that level and the 156.70 swing low set against lower highs at the 157.08 NY high. Late NY has compressed into a 156.81–156.92 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR shrinking to about 7 pips.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 156.92, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.92 range high opens a retest of the 157.08 NY high and lower-highs line, then the 157.16 session high
Failure to hold the 156.81 range low and 156.70 swing low exposes the rising-lows line and the 156.31 pre-NY low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend gap risk into next week's BoJ and FOMC decisions could materially shift this read
Late-NY compression 156.81–156.92 below the 157.08 NY high.
USD/JPY has compressed into a 156.81–156.92 range through late NY after fading from the 157.08 NY high. It holds above the 38.2% retracement of the 156.31–157.08 NY swing, with the 156.70 swing low near the 50% level. This follows a two-way NY session around the US PMI beat, after the haven-driven drop to the 156.08 Asia low. RSI(14) is near 44 and there is no setup in play into the Friday close.
Support: 156.813, 156.702
Resistance: 156.921, 157.082, 157.159
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.81 range low exposes the 156.70 swing low and the 50% retracement
Failure to hold the 156.70 swing low turns the NY structure into a lower-low
Close above the 156.92 range top reopens the 157.08 NY high and the 157.16 session high
Thin Friday-close liquidity. Weekend headlines ahead of next week's BoJ and FOMC decisions could gap the reopen away from this range
20:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, flattening into the close · RSI 55 · price 156.879
Late-NY compression inside 156.81–156.92, above a rising support from the 156.31 swing low.
The yen-led drop around the Tokyo CPI hour to the 156.08 low was reclaimed in Asia, but London rolled over from the 157.16 Asia high. Strong US PMI and Michigan beats then lifted NY off the 156.31 swing low to a 157.08 NY high that was rejected. Late Friday NY has compressed into a 156.81–156.92 range, holding above the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally and the rising support, with ATR near 7–8 pips.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 156.92, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.81 range low exposes the 156.70 higher low and 50% retrace of the NY rally; a break there also breaks the rising support
Clearance of the 156.92 range top puts the 157.08 NY high and 157.16 Asia high back in play
Loss of the 156.31 swing low would undo the NY recovery
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend gap risk ahead of FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) and the BoJ decision could materially shift this read
Lower high 157.08 and higher low 156.31 inside the Asian range.
After the 156.08 Asia low, London-NY sold to a 156.31 NY low. The bounce, helped by US yields stabilising around the PMI beat, stalled at the 157.08 NY high, a lower high under the 157.16 session high. Late NY is compressing in a 156.81–156.92 band on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.08 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.16 session high in play
Failure to hold the 156.81 range low exposes the 156.70 swing low (50% fib of the NY rally) and then the 156.31 NY low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; any weekend headline gap could reset this structure before next week's Fed and BoJ
Higher lows (156.31, 156.70, 156.81) against lower highs (157.16, 157.08); late-NY range compressing 156.81–156.92.
After the Asia drop to the 156.08 five-week low, London faded the 157.16 day high down to a 156.31 NY low. The US PMI beat then lifted the pair to a 157.08 NY high. Late NY is now compressing between the 156.81 range low and the 156.92 range top, with RSI(14) flat near 51, EMA20 overhead and price holding above the 38.2% retracement of the NY rebound.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 156.92, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.70 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Close above the 156.92 range top, then the 157.08 NY high, breaks the falling resistance line toward the 157.16 day high
Loss of 156.81 range low with 156.31 NY low the next swing reference
Friday close and the weekend reopen can gap price away from the current range
BoJ decision (Fri Oct 30) and Fed decision (Wed Oct 28) next week could materially shift this read
Tight range 156.81–156.97 below NY high, higher low intact above 156.31.
USD/JPY rebounded from the 156.31 London low after the US manufacturing PMI beat and topped at the 157.08 NY high. It has since compressed into a 156.81–156.97 band late in the NY session, holding above the 38.2% fib of that leg with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 156.97, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.81 range low exposes the 156.70 NY pullback and the 38.2% fib
M15 close above the 156.97 range top reopens the 157.08 NY high and 157.16 day high
Failure to hold the 156.31 London low would break the higher-low sequence
Friday NY close and thin liquidity ahead of next week's FOMC (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) raise gap risk
Higher low at 156.70 after NY rally; late-NY consolidation 156.83–157.08.
USD/JPY rebounded from the 156.31 NY low as US yields stabilised and flash PMIs beat. It printed a 157.08 NY high but stalled below the 157.16 day high. Late-NY trade is now coiling between the 156.83 pullback low and 157.08, with the 156.70 higher low near the 50% fib of the NY rally still intact.
Support: 156.83, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
Close below the 156.83 pullback low exposes the 156.70 higher low; losing that reopens the 156.31 NY low
Close above the 157.08 NY high puts the 157.16 day high back in play
Friday late-NY liquidity is thinning into the weekend, and no scheduled events fall in the next 8h
Higher low at 156.70, lower highs below 157.08 swing high.
USD/JPY rallied from the 156.31 NY low into the London-NY transition, put in a higher low at the 156.70 swing low, then rose to a 157.08 swing high during NY hours as US yields stabilised. It was rejected there and has faded into a tight 156.83–156.92 band late in Friday's NY session, with lower highs forming and RSI(14) neutral near 52. The 156.70 swing low sits on the 50% retrace of the NY rally.
Support: 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.08 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.16 day high in view
Failure to hold the 156.70 swing low negates the higher-low structure and exposes the 156.31 NY low
Thin late-Friday liquidity and US Treasury yield moves into next week's Fed decision could shift this read
Higher lows since 156.31, tight range under the NY high.
USD/JPY rebounded from the 156.31 London-NY transition low as US PMI and Michigan beats supported the dollar. The rally met rejection at the 157.08 NY high and has since compressed into late Friday NY trade, with a higher low at 156.83 above the 156.70 fib 50% of the 156.31–157.08 leg. RSI(14) is flat near 51.
Support: 156.83, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.08 NY high puts the 157.16 session high in play
Loss of the 156.83 higher low exposes the 156.70 fib 50% / prior swing low
Break below 156.70 reopens the 156.31 transition low
Thin late-Friday liquidity, plus weekend positioning ahead of next week's FOMC and BoJ, can distort the final bars
18:01 UTC
Range-bound, contracting · RSI 54 · price 156.895
Lower highs from 157.16 over higher lows from 156.31.
Haven JPY demand drove the Asia flush to 156.08 before a rebound to the 157.16 Asia high. London then sold to the 156.31 London low, and the NY rally after the US PMI beat met rejection at the 157.08 NY high. Late NY is drifting near 156.90 inside a lower-highs/higher-lows squeeze, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 156.83, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.00, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.83 late NY low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.70 NY pivot (38.2–50% of the NY rally fib)
Close above the 157.00 round number and the 157.08 NY high breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 157.16 Asia high back in play
Loss of the 156.31 London low reopens the 156.08 Asian low
Thin late-Friday liquidity after London close; Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) next week are the main event risk for this range
17:46 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, stalling under day high · RSI 53 · price 156.855
Higher lows since 156.31 NY low, capped at 157.08 below 157.16 day high.
Late NY, after London close: the PMI beat lifted USDJPY off the 156.31 NY low, with a higher low at 156.70, before stalling at the 157.08 NY high, just shy of the 157.16 day high and above the 157.00 round number. Price is easing back toward the ema20 near 156.84, holding mid-way inside the 156.08–157.16 day range, which is still intact from the Asia session.
Support: 156.84, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.00, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.70 higher low breaks the NY rising support and exposes the 156.31 NY low
Clearance of the 157.08 NY high and 157.16 day high would extend the rebound from the 156.08 Asia low
Friday close into thin liquidity; next scheduled USD risk is Tue Durable Goods ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
The Asia drop to 156.08 on falling US yields and risk-off has been mostly retraced. Since the 156.31 session low at the London-NY transition, price has printed higher lows, but it was rejected at the 157.08 NY high, just under the 157.16 asian high. After London close it sits on the 156.85 swing low and just above EMA20 near 156.83, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 156.85, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.85 swing low and the 156.70 higher low (50% fib) breaks the higher-low chain from the 156.31 session low
A close above the 157.08 ny high and the 157.16 asian high breaks the day's range to the upside
No data in the next 8h; the Friday close carries gap risk into next week's FOMC (Wed) and BoJ (Fri)
17:16 UTC
Range-bound after Asia low, higher lows building · RSI 61 · price 156.938
Higher lows at 156.31 and 156.70 under a flat 157.08–157.16 cap.
USD/JPY has traded inside the Asian range since the risk-off drop to the 156.08 Asian low, a five-week low, then reclaimed most of it. The NY rally from the 156.31 swing low, helped by the US PMI and Michigan beats, met rejection at the 157.08 NY high. Higher lows at 156.70 now compress price under the 157.16 Asian high late in the Friday NY session.
Support: 156.70, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 Asian high breaks the day's range and the 157.00 pivot cap
Loss of the 156.70 higher low and the higher-low line shifts focus back to the 156.31 swing low
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity. Next scheduled risk is Tue US Durable Goods, then FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri
17:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in NY · RSI 61 · price 156.938
Inside Asian range 156.08–157.16, NY higher-low chain capped below Asia high.
The Asia session swept to a 5wk low at 156.08 on haven JPY demand and falling Treasury yields, then recovered through 157.00. London and NY have stayed inside that Asian range. The NY leg from the 156.31 ny low printed a higher swing low at 156.70 and extended through the firm US PMIs and Michigan beat, but stalled at the 157.08 ny high, below the 157.16 asia high, and is now holding near 156.94 after London close.
Support: 156.70, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 asia high breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the 156.70 swing low breaks the NY higher lows trendline and puts the 156.31 ny low back in play
A break below 156.31 exposes the 156.08 5wk low (five-week low)
Holding the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY leg (156.70–156.60) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Late-Friday liquidity thins after London close; no scheduled data in the next 8h, with Fed and BoJ decisions due next week
HH/HL chain inside the 156.08–157.16 Asian range, pressing range top.
After the haven-driven Asia low at 156.08, London sold back to a 156.31 session low at the London-NY transition. NY has since printed a higher low at 156.70 and reclaimed 157.00 as JGB yields slid and UST yields stabilised. Price is now testing the 156.95 prior high area from above and sits just under the 157.16 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 67, firm but not stretched.
Support: 156.95, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 asian high breaks the 24h range to the upside
Slip back below the 156.95 prior high puts the 157.00 reclaim in doubt
Failure to hold the 156.70 higher low breaks the NY HH/HL chain and reopens the 156.31 session low
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the weekly close, so wicks through range edges may not hold
16:31 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off NY low · RSI 61 · price 156.93
Higher low at 156.70 under a 156.95 cap; price back inside the Asian range.
After the risk-off flush to a five-week low near 156.08 in Asia, London faded from its 157.16 high and early NY dipped to a 156.31 NY low before the firm US PMI and Michigan beats lifted the pair, with a higher swing low at 156.70. Price is now pressing the 156.95 intraday cap, which has produced a rejection three times since late London, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 156.70, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.95, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.95 intraday cap opens the 157.00 round number and the 157.16 london high
Failure to hold the 156.70 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 156.55 london low
Loss of the 156.31 ny low would put the Asian low near 156.08 back in view
Thin Friday liquidity after London close can exaggerate moves at the cap
16:01 UTC
Two-way range, higher lows off NY low · RSI 55 · price 156.838
Higher lows pressing a flat 156.95 cap inside the Asian range.
Still inside the Asian range (156.08–157.12) after London faded the 157.16 day high. NY dipped to a 156.31 low before the US PMI and Michigan beats lifted it back. Supply has capped the ny high at 156.95 twice since, while the 156.70 higher low keeps the recovery structure intact into the post-London Friday afternoon.
Support: 156.70, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.95, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.95 ny high breaks the cap and reopens the 157.16 day high
Failure to hold the 156.70 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the 156.55 london low, then the 156.31 ny low
Holding above the 61.8% level of the ny rally fib (~156.55) keeps the rebound structure intact
No scheduled data before the Friday close; next week's FOMC and BoJ decisions are the event risk that could reset this range
15:46 UTC
Two-way, lower highs since day high · RSI 53 · price 156.847
Range 156.08–157.16; lower highs, higher low vs Asian low.
After the post-CPI Asian low at 156.08, London faded the 157.16 day high to 156.55. Early NY then made a 156.31 low before the US PMI and Michigan beats lifted price to 156.95, a lower high that capped again. Mid-NY, price sits at 156.85 after a pullback low at 156.70, the 38.2% retracement of the NY bounce, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 156.70, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.95, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.95 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens a retest of the 157.16 day high
Failure to hold the 156.70 pullback low exposes the 156.31 ny low
A break of the 156.08 asian low puts the 156.00 one-month low in play
Thinning liquidity after London close into the Friday finish may exaggerate moves; no scheduled events in the next 8h
Contracting range: lower highs from 157.16, higher lows above 156.08.
USD/JPY is rotating inside 156.31–156.95 after the Asia session flush to the 156.08 asia low on haven demand. The NY rebound on the US PMI and Michigan beats met rejection at 156.95, extending the lower highs from the 157.16 london high. Price sits about 30% into the ny rebound fib, with RSI neutral near 47 and ATR around 15 pips.
Support: 156.55, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.95, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.95 breaks the lower-high line and opens the 157.16 london high
Failure to hold the 156.55 london low exposes the 156.31 ny low
Loss of 156.31 puts the 156.08 asia low (one-month low) back in play
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; Friday close into thin liquidity can distort the session range
15:01 UTC
Intraday range, NY rebound testing lower high · RSI 54 · price 156.891
Lower highs from 157.16; NY low held above Asian low inside 156.08–157.16.
USDJPY rebounded nearly 60 pips off the 156.31 NY low on the US PMI and Michigan beats. That retraced about 68% of the 157.16–156.31 drop and stalled at the 156.95 lower high, just below the 157 pivot. The NY low held above the 156.08 Asian low, so the day stays a 156.08–157.16 range. RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s and ATR is around 14 pips.
Support: 156.83, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.95, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.95 lower high and 157 pivot reopens the 157.16 session high
Break of the NY rebound line and the 61.8% fib at 156.83 returns focus to the 156.31 NY low
Loss of the 156.08 Asian low breaks the day range and the one-month low area
London close and thinning Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves around 157.00
V-shaped rebound from 156.31 NY low testing 156.96 lower high inside 156.08–157.16 day range.
The NY session dipped to the 156.31 ny low, above the 156.08 Asian low. Beats in US manufacturing PMI and Michigan sentiment then drove a V-shaped rebound that has retraced most of the late-London drop and pushed through the lower-high line from the 157.16 session high. Price is pressing the 156.96 lower high with RSI(14) near 55, while the ema20 near 156.73 and the 156.55 london low sit below.
Support: 156.73, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.96 lower high reclaims the 157.00 pivot and puts the 157.16 session high back in play
Slip back below the ema20 near 156.73 negates the lower-high line break and reopens the 156.55 london low
Loss of the 156.31 ny low exposes the 156.08 Asian low, the one-month low area
No scheduled USD/JPY events in the next 8h; Friday close and risk-off headlines drive the tape
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound testing it · RSI 52 · price 156.788
Lower highs from 157.16; lows 156.55 then 156.31, above Asia low 156.08.
Lower highs run from the 157.16 day high to the 156.96 lower high. The London low at 156.55 gave way to a 156.31 NY low before a ~50-pip rebound in the first hour of NY, as firm US PMI and Michigan prints pushed back against haven yen demand. Price is now pressing the descending trendline near 156.83 and sits just above EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and the Asia low at 156.08 still the day's floor.
Support: 156.55, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 156.96 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.16 day high back in view
Rejection at the trendline followed by a loss of the 156.55 London low keeps the lower-high/lower-low chain intact, with the 156.31 NY low and 156.08 Asia low below
Friday NY-afternoon liquidity thins into a week carrying the Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) decisions
Lower highs 157.16 → 156.96, lower low at 156.31, still above 156.08 Asia low.
London sold off from the 157.16 session high, leaving a lower high at 156.96 and a lower low at 156.31 in early NY hours. That low held above the 156.08 Asia low. Price has bounced 38 pips into the 61.8% fib near 156.71 and is pressing ema20, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 as flash PMIs hit with no actuals in the feed.
Support: 156.55, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.71, 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 156.96 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the sequence.
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 156.71 keeps the lower-high chain intact. A drop back below the 156.55 london low reopens the 156.31 swing low.
UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A soft print would bring the 156.08 asia low back into focus.
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 39 · price 156.436
LH/LL chain from 157.16; bounce stalling under 156.55.
London faded the 157.16 late-Asia high. Price then printed a lower high at 156.96 before the pre-NY leg to a 156.31 session low, still above the 156.08 asian low set after the Japan CPI release. The haven-driven USD softness in the backdrop matches the tape: price is below both EMAs and the early-NY bounce is stalling under the 156.55 prior low as the US flash PMIs land.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.55, 156.96
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Break of the 156.31 session low exposes the 156.08 asian low and the 156.00 round number
M15 close back above the 156.55 prior low eases the LL sequence
Close above the 156.96 lower high breaks the London downtrend structure
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 35 · price 156.379
London false break above the Asian high, then lower highs and a fresh NY low.
London's push above the Asian range high to 157.16 failed and was followed by lower highs, the latest at 156.96. The NY open broke the 156.55 london low down to a 156.31 ny low, leaving price in the lower half of the Asian range and above the 156.08 month low from the haven-driven flush. RSI(14) is near 35, not yet stretched.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 156.55, 156.96
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the next two bars
Failure to hold the 156.31 ny low exposes the 156.08 month low
M15 close back above the 156.55 london low would stall the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower-high trendline near 156.96 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
13:15 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 156.43
LH/LL chain, NY broke below London low.
London unwound the Asian rebound off the 157.16 Asian high, and early NY extended the lower-high, lower-low chain. Price capped at a 156.96 lower high, broke the 156.55 London low and set a 156.31 NY low as haven JPY demand persists. RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched, and the 156.08 Asian low (post-Japan CPI flush) and 156.00 round number sit just below with US PMIs imminent.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 156.00
Resistance: 156.55, 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 156.55 london low undercuts the breakdown
Break of the 156.08 asian low exposes the 156.00 round number
Close above the 156.96 lower high breaks the sequence, with the 157.16 asian high above
Lower high at 156.96 then break of the London low; fresh session low at 156.31.
After the Asian flush to 156.08 and rebound to the 157.16 day high, London printed lower highs and the early NY slide broke the 156.55 London low to a 156.31 NY low, in line with the digest's haven-JPY and falling-yield backdrop. Price sits below both EMAs ahead of the US flash PMIs, with the 38.2% retrace of the 156.96 lower high to 156.31 move lining up with the old London low.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 156.00
Resistance: 156.55, 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 156.55 london low neutralises the breakdown
Failure to hold 156.31 exposes the 156.08 asian low and 156.00 psych
Break of the lower-high trendline above 156.96 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower high at 156.96 below the 157.15 session high; london low 156.55 intact.
London faded the pair from the 157.15 session high to the 156.55 london low. The late-London bounce stalled at 156.96, about two-thirds of that drop, leaving a lower high, and price is back near 156.73 below both EMAs into the London-NY transition. The asian low at 156.08 marks the post-Tokyo-open flush that followed the in-line Japan CPI, and risk-off haven demand for JPY is still the backdrop.
Support: 156.547
Resistance: 156.958
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a clear miss feeds the yield unwind
M15 close below the 156.55 london low confirms a lower-low and opens the 156.08 asian low
M15 close above the 156.96 lower high voids the down-leg read and puts the 157.15 session high and the 157 pivot back in focus
Lower high at 156.96 under the 157.16 Asian high; mid-range late London.
Asia rebounded hard from the 156.08 Asian low after the haven and yield-driven flush. London then saw rejection near the 157.16 Asian high and sold off to a 156.55 London low. The recovery stalled at a 156.96 lower high, and price now sits mid-range at 156.82, flat around EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48, holding just above the 156.78 swing low.
Support: 156.775, 156.547
Resistance: 156.958, 157.159
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, about 1.5h away, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 156.78 swing low exposes the London low at 156.55
A break of the 156.55 London low puts the 156.08 Asian low and 156.00 back in focus
A close above the 156.96 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 157.16 Asian high
12:01 UTC
Choppy, lower high under 157.00 · RSI 51 · price 156.843
London range 156.55–156.96 inside the wider post-CPI rebound; lower high vs the Asian high.
The Asian session rebound from the 156.08 asia low, set after the Japan CPI print, stalled at the 157.16 asian high. London sold back to the 156.55 london low, and the rebound capped at the 156.96 swing high, about a 67% retracement of the london leg, leaving a lower high under 157.00. Price is pinned to EMA20/50 near 156.84 with RSI(14) at about 51, mid-range late in the London session ahead of NY.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.96, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.96 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline; a close above the 157.16 asian high negates the London rejection
Failure to hold the 156.55 london low exposes the 156.08 asia low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Sideways, rebounding off the London low · RSI 57 · price 156.933
Lower high at 157.16, rising lows from 156.55 into the 61.8% retrace.
Risk-off flushed the pair to the 156.08 Asian low before a recovery above 157.00. London then faded from the 157.16 session high to the 156.55 London low. The late-London rebound off rising lows is now testing the 61.8% retracement near 156.93, just under the 156.96 bounce high, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 156.85, 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.96, 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
A close above the 156.96 bounce high reopens the 157.16 session high, with the 157.36 prior high beyond
Losing the 50% fib at 156.85 and the rising lows trendline puts the 156.55 London low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; soft prints bring the 156.08 Asian low into focus
11:31 UTC
Range after Asia V-recovery · RSI 56 · price 156.935
Higher low at 156.55 vs Asia low; capped below 157.16.
Asia set a 156.08 low on risk-off and the firm Japan CPI print, then V-recovered. London saw rejection at the 157.16 London high and a drop to the 156.55 London low, a higher low against the Asia low. Price has since retraced about 63% of that London drop to 156.94, with RSI(14) near 56, inside a 156.55–157.16 range late in the London session.
Support: 156.74, 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 london high breaks the range top and exposes the 157.36 prior high
Failure back below the 156.74 swing pivot reopens the 156.55 london low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; soft prints would put the 156.08 asia low back in focus
11:16 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 46 · price 156.822
Lower highs from the 157.16 London high, first higher low at 156.59.
Asia dropped to a 156.08 Asian low after the firm Japan CPI print, then rebounded to 157.12. London poked just above that to a 157.16 London high, failed, and unwound to a 156.55 session low. Price is now retracing that drop and sits between the 38.2% fib (156.78) and 50% fib (156.85), with a higher low at 156.59 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 156.78, 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.85, 157.01, 157.16
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A rejection at the 50% fib near 156.85 keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close above the 157.01 lower high reopens the 157.16 London high
A loss of the 156.55 session low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 156.08 Asian low
Lower highs from London high, base at 156.55, descending line broken.
London's push above the Asian range high to the 157.16 london high failed and unwound to the 156.55 london low, back inside the Asian range above the 156.08 asian low. That low was set early in the Asia session after the Japan CPI release, amid haven JPY demand and softer US yields. The 10:30 UTC bar broke the London downtrend line and is testing the 38.2% fib near 156.78, with price still below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.85, 157.16
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.55 london low exposes the 156.08 asian low
M15 close above the 50% fib at 156.85 shifts focus back to the 157.16 london high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.16 Asian high, London low at 156.55.
London has unwound the Asian rebound off 156.08. Price was rejected at the 157.16 Asian high and has carved lower highs down to a 156.55 London low, as haven JPY demand and softer US yields weigh. Price now sits back below the old 156.84 range floor, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.69, 156.84, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.69 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 156.55 London low exposes the 156.08 Asian low
Reclaim of the 156.84 range floor would neutralise the London decline
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower highs from 157.16; Asian range floor broken, shallow base at 156.55.
Price rejected the 157.16 day high into London open, then broke the 156.85 Asian range floor and fell to a 156.55 London low as haven yen demand and softer US yields resurfaced. Price is basing just above that low with RSI(14) near 32, below EMA20 and EMA50, and the old range floor sits at the 50% fib retrace of the London drop.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.85, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.85 range floor (50% fib) puts price back inside the Asian range and opens 157.00 psych
Failure to hold the 156.55 london low exposes the 156.08 day low set after Tokyo CPI
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending in London · RSI 31 · price 156.579
Lower highs since 157.16; broken below Asian range.
London has unwound the early-Europe push to the 157.16 session high and broken the 156.82 Asian range low through a clean chain of lower highs. Price is sitting just past the 50% retrace of the rebound from the 156.08 cpi low, with RSI(14) near 31, as haven JPY demand and softer US yields cited in the digest weigh on the pair.
Support: 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 156.82, 157.16
What it said to watch
Close below the 156.50 round number, which sits near the 61.8% fib at 156.49, exposes the 156.08 cpi low
M15 reclaim of the 156.82 range low neutralises the London range break
Recovery above the 157.16 session high voids the lower-high sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Europe · RSI 32 · price 156.611
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 157.16, Asian range floor broken.
Europe has unwound the Asian bounce off the 156.08 post-CPI low. Lower highs from the 157.16 session high pushed price through the 156.84 range floor of the Asian consolidation to a 156.58 session low as haven JPY demand and softer US yields persist. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched, and EMA20/50 sit overhead.
Support: 156.58, 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 156.84, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.58 session low exposes the 156.50 round number and the 156.08 asian low
Recovery above the 156.84 range floor, near fib 38.2% of the Europe decline, would break the lower-high sequence; 157.00 round number above
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since day high · RSI 34 · price 156.652
London lower-high/lower-low chain retracing the Asia rally.
After the Asia rebound from the 156.08 asian low, USD/JPY was rejected at the 157.16 day high and has slipped back below the 157.00 psych level through the London session. Price has printed lower highs and lower lows, with the latest lower high at 156.83. The London low at 156.61 sits on the 50% retracement of the Asia rally, as the haven JPY bid persists on risk-off and softer US yields. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 156.61, 156.49, 156.08
Resistance: 156.83, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
A break of the 156.61 london low exposes the 61.8% fib at 156.49, then the 156.08 asian low
A close back above the 156.83 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence
Failure to reclaim the 157.00 psych level keeps the 157.16 day high capped
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower highs inside wide Asian range, testing 38.2% of Asian rally.
London met rejection just above the 157.16 Asian high and has printed lower highs since, slipping through the 156.85 Asian congestion floor to a 156.72 London low. Price sits on the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rally off 156.08, the rebound that followed the CPI-driven JPY bid. RSI(14) is near 39 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 156.72, 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 156.91, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.72 london low opens the 50% retrace near 156.62 and the round number 156.50 (61.8%)
Recovery above the 156.91 lower high neutralises the London pullback structure
Loss of 156.50 exposes the asian low at 156.08
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 156.757
Double top 157.12–157.16, Asian range floor broken.
The post-CPI rebound from the 156.08 asia low stalled in a double top at 157.12–157.16. London has since printed lower highs and broken the asian floor at 156.82, and price is now testing the 156.72 session low near the 38.2% rebound fib, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 156.72, 156.62, 156.08
Resistance: 156.82, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 hold below the 156.82 asian floor keeps the range break intact; a reclaim reopens the 157.00 round number
Failure at the 156.72 session low exposes the fib 50% at 156.62, then the 156.08 asia low
M15 close above the 157.16 session high negates the double top
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday range, slipping lower in London · RSI 45 · price 156.795
Lower high at 157.16, range floor lost.
USD/JPY recovered from the 156.08 low after Japan CPI to a 157.16 session high. It was then rejected, and early London has slipped back below the 156.84 range floor after tagging a 156.74 London low, the 38.2% retrace of that Asian recovery. The session high is a lower high against Thursday's 157.36 peak, price sits under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45, and ATR is about 13 pips.
Support: 156.74, 156.60
Resistance: 156.84, 157.00, 157.16
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 156.84 range floor negates the break lower
Failure to hold the 156.74 London low exposes the 156.60 swing low, which lines up with the 50% fib
A reclaim of the 157.00 round number and the 157.16 session high would restore the Asian recovery structure
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 156.82–157.16 since Asia; London swept the asian low and closed back inside.
Yen haven demand and the hot core-core CPI print drove the 156.08 low at 00:30 UTC. The rebound has since stalled in a 156.82–157.16 range, with the round number 157.00 capping recent bars. London's opening dip to the 156.74 london low tagged the 38.2% fib of that rebound and was rejected back inside the range.
Support: 156.82, 156.74
Resistance: 157.00, 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below 156.74 (london low / 38.2% fib) breaks the range floor and exposes the 156.50 area
Close above the 157.16 session high reopens the 157.36 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Holding under the 157.00 round number keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range above the 156.82 asian low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, consolidating above 157.00 · RSI 60 · price 157.049
USD/JPY has fully retraced the Tokyo CPI-driven drop to 156.075 as USD steadied. Rising lows from the 156.815 range low run into the London low at 156.953, and London open is holding a 156.95–157.16 band just above the 157.00 round number. Supply capped the pre-London push at the 157.16 session high, with yesterday's NY prior high at 157.355 next above.
Support: 157.00, 156.953, 156.815
Resistance: 157.159, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.00 round number and the 156.953 london low would break the rising lows and mark the reclaim as a false break, exposing the 156.815 range low
Close above the 157.16 session high opens the 157.355 prior high
Loss of 156.815 puts the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rebound near 156.745 in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 156.82–157.12 after the 156.08 low; London break above failed.
After the Japan CPI flush to 156.08, USDJPY V-recovered and held a 156.82–157.12 Asian range. The London open pushed to a 157.16 london high, but the break failed and price slipped back under the 157.00 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 156.82, 156.62
Resistance: 157.00, 157.16, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.16 london high negates the false break and exposes yesterday's 157.35 NY high
Loss of the 156.82 range low opens the 50% fib of the CPI-low rally near 156.62
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Recovering from the post-CPI low, stalling near 157 · RSI 59 · price 157.052
V-shaped rebound from 156.08 into a 156.82–157.12 Asian range; London open marginally above it.
The yen spike on Japan CPI drove price to 156.08 early in the Asia session, but the move fully faded. Price then built a 156.82–157.12 Asian range, and London open printed a london high at 157.16 before stalling. Spot is holding just above the 157.00 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 157.00, 156.82
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.00 round number returns price to the Asian range
Acceptance above the 157.16 london high exposes the 157.36 prior high
A break of the 156.82 range low undercuts the post-CPI recovery
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 157.114
V-recovery from the 156.08 Asian low into a 156.82–157.05 range, now pushing above the range top.
USD/JPY flushed to 156.08 early in the Asia session on yen demand after Japan's above-target CPI, then retraced the whole leg and held a 156.82–157.05 range through the back half of Asia. The pre-London bars cleared the range top to a 157.16 session high, testing the 157.00 cap flagged in the yen digest. The 157.36 prior high from yesterday's London and NY sessions sits overhead, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 157.05, 156.82
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.05 range top puts price back inside the Asian range
Acceptance above the 157.16 session high opens the 157.36 prior high, near the mid-157.00s old range floor
Loss of the 156.82 range low brings the 38.2% rebound fib near 156.75 into view
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 156.82–157.05 after V-recovery from 156.08 Asian low; lower highs on flat lows.
Asia swept down to 156.08 as risk-off and the 2.1% Japan CPI bid the yen, then retraced the move to the 157.12 Asian high. Since then price has compressed in a 23-pip range above the 156.82 range low, with lower highs from the Asian high leaning on that floor into the London open.
Support: 156.82, 156.72, 156.08
Resistance: 157.05, 157.12, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.05 range high and 157.12 Asian high reopens the 157.36 prior high
Loss of the 156.82 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at 156.72, with the 156.08 Asian low below
Lower-highs line from 157.12 caps the range; a break either side of the compression defines the London move
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Range after V-shaped Asia rebound, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 156.929
Tight 156.82–157.05 range with marginally lower highs below the asian high.
Early Asia flushed to the asian low at 156.08 on risk-off and CPI-driven yen demand, then fully retraced to the 157.12 asian high. Since then the pair has been boxed between the 156.82 range low and the 157.05 range high, with lower highs and rejection just above 157.00. RSI(14) near 53 and a contracting ATR (~13.5 pips) show compression above the 23.6% retrace into the London open.
Support: 156.82, 156.69, 156.08
Resistance: 157.05, 157.12, 157.36
What it said to watch
A close above the range high at 157.05 and the asian high at 157.12 opens the path to the prior high at 157.36
Failure to hold the range low at 156.82 exposes the prior low at 156.69, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rebound
The lower-highs line from 157.12 caps price; a break of it would neutralise the compression read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the asian low at 156.08 back in focus
Tight range 156.82–157.05 under Asian high, lower highs.
The Asia session swept to 156.08 on the CPI and risk-off yen bid. A modest USD lift then drove a 105-pip rebound that was rejected at the 157.12 Asian high, in line with the digest's 'capped near 157.00' read. With London open about an hour away, price has compressed into a 156.82–157.05 range on lower highs, sitting above the 38.2% fib of the rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and EMA20 flat beneath price.
Support: 156.815, 156.723, 156.688
Resistance: 157.047, 157.123, 157.358
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.05 range high and 157.12 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the path to the 157.36 prior high
Failure to hold the 156.82 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at 156.72 and the 156.69 London low from yesterday
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Rebound from asia low, stalling · RSI 55 · price 156.907
V-reversal into a 156.82–157.12 range.
Asia swept below yesterday's lows to the 156.075 asia low as Japan's core ex-food/energy CPI jumped to 2.4%. Price then reversed in a V to the 157.12 asia high and has since coiled in a 156.82–157.12 range, holding the 23.6% retrace into late Asia with London open ahead. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR is about 13 pips.
Support: 156.82, 156.50, 156.075
Resistance: 157.12, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.82 range low exposes the 38.2% retrace near 156.72 and the 156.50 pivot
Close above the 157.12 asia high opens the prior ny high at 157.355
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Asia rebound stalling below the 157.12 high · RSI 64 · price 157.013
V-shaped Asia recovery from 156.08, now a 156.82–157.12 range. Price is pressing the descending line from yesterday's NY high..
The firmer Japan core CPI (ex-food & energy 2.4%) drove a yen leg to the 156.08 low early in the Asia session. That move fully reversed to the 157.12 Asia high. Since then the pair has held a 156.82–157.12 range, and the last close sits on the 157.00 round number just under the descending trendline from yesterday's 157.35 NY high.
Support: 157.00, 156.82, 156.60
Resistance: 157.12, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.12 Asia high clears the descending trendline and exposes the 157.35 NY high
Failure to hold the 156.82 pullback low turns the range lower; below that, the 50% fib at 156.60 is the next reference
Rejection at the 157.00 round number keeps the Asian range intact into London open
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.12, compressing above 156.84 range floor.
Asia session flushed to a 156.08 asia low after Tokyo CPI (core-core 2.4%) lifted BoJ hike bets. Price then recovered in a V to 157.12 and met rejection at that session high, well short of Thursday's 157.35 ny high. Late in the Tokyo session, price is compressing between the 156.84 range floor and a 156.97 lower high, sitting near the 23.6% retracement with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 156.84, 156.72, 156.08
Resistance: 156.97, 157.12, 157.35
What it said to watch
Close above the 156.97 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 157.12 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 156.84 range floor exposes the fib 38.2 at 156.72, near Thursday's 156.69 London low
Loss of the 156.72 fib 38.2 shifts the read back toward the post-CPI selloff and the 156.08 asia low
London open in ~2.5h is likely to set the next range away from the 156.84–157.12 box
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Rebound stalling after Tokyo flush · RSI 57 · price 156.905
Mid-Tokyo session: the Asia slide to a 156.075 session low around the CPI release, with core-core at 2.4%, reversed sharply to a 157.123 session high. Rejection there has left a run of lower highs, with price coiling between the 156.84 pivot low and 157.05, still well below yesterday's NY high at 157.355.
Support: 156.84, 156.72, 156.075
Resistance: 157.123, 157.355
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.84 pivot low exposes the fib 38.2 at 156.72 and reopens the rebound
M15 close above 157.123 session high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.355 NY high in play
Loss of 156.72 would bring the 156.075 session low back into view
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
V-shaped rebound off the Asian low, stalling below 157.12 · RSI 54 · price 156.89
Tight 156.84–157.12 range after a ~105-pip rebound, highs lower than the prior NY high.
The yen-bid slide after Japan's above-target CPI ran to an Asian low of 156.08 in the first hour of Tokyo trade. Price then recovered roughly 105 pips before a rejection at the 157.12 Asian high. In late Asia it is holding a 156.84 pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and lower highs still capped below Thursday's 157.36 NY high.
Support: 156.84, 156.72, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.84 pullback low exposes the rebound's fib 38.2 at 156.72
A close above the 157.12 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 157.36 NY high into play
A return to the 156.08 Asian low would erase the Asia rebound
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Sharp rebound off the low, now stalling · RSI 55 · price 156.893
V-recovery from 156.08 capped at 157.12, minor lower highs since.
The above-target Tokyo CPI print extended Thursday's risk-off slide to an asian low at 156.08, but the pair then retraced the whole leg to 157.12. Rejection at that asian high has left a run of lower highs, with price holding the 156.84 swing low near the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) back to a neutral 55 late in the Asia session.
Support: 156.84, 156.69, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.12 asian high exposes the 157.36 prior high
Loss of the 156.84 swing low opens the 38.2% fib near 156.72 and the 156.69 london low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 156.87 after Asian rally; tight range 156.87–157.12.
The hot core-core CPI print drove a Tokyo-open slide through the 156.69 prior low to a 156.08 Asian low. A full ~105-pip Asian rally then reclaimed that level and printed a 157.12 session high. Late in the Asia session, price is holding a 156.87 swing low and coiling below the 157.00–157.50 broken range floor, with EMA20/50 now beneath price.
Support: 156.868, 156.688
Resistance: 157.123, 157.355
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.12 session high puts the 157.35 ny highs and the 157.00–157.50 broken range floor back in play
Loss of the 156.87 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 156.69 prior low near the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally
Close back below 156.69 would turn the false break into a lower-low sequence toward the 156.08 asian low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp Asia rebound now pausing · RSI 58 · price 156.927
V-reversal off 156.08, lower high at 157.12 below the 157.36 NY high.
Japan's firmer core CPI drove an early-Asia flush through the prior lows near 156.72 to a 156.08 session low. The Asia rebound reclaimed that zone and reached 157.12. The rally was rejected there for a lower high under the 157.36 NY high, and price is now holding a 156.87 swing low mid-Asia session.
Support: 156.87, 156.72, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.87 swing low exposes the prior lows / 38.2% of the Asia rebound near 156.72
Loss of 156.72 reopens the 156.08 session low and confirms the false break failed
Break above the 157.12 session high and the lower highs line brings the 157.36 NY high and the broken 157.00–157.50 range back into play
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 156.075 cpi low, retesting the broken 157.00 zone from below.
Tokyo core-core CPI at 2.4% knocked the pair to a 156.075 cpi low early in the Asia session, but the drop reversed fully. Price climbed through the 156.73 ny low and is now capped at the 157.12 asia high, retesting the underside of the broken 157.00 zone. RSI(14) sits near 64 and the rally trendline of higher lows is intact.
Support: 156.886, 156.73, 156.075
Resistance: 157.123, 157.356
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.12 asia high, then the 157.36 prior high, would mark the 157.00–157.50 breakdown as failing
Break of the 156.89 pullback low and rally trendline exposes the 156.73 ny low
A cpi rally fib 50% retrace near 156.60 would put the 156.075 cpi low back in focus
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Sharp rebound from Asia low, testing 157.00 · RSI 64 · price 157.031
Higher-high and higher-low chain off 156.08 cpi low, capped at 157.12.
Japan's firmer core-core CPI print early in the Asia session knocked the pair to the 156.08 cpi low, through yesterday's 156.69 low. Price then fully reversed about 105 pips back to the 157.00 former range floor. Higher lows remain intact on the climb, and the session high at 157.12 is capping for now, with the 157.35 prior high above.
Support: 156.82, 156.60, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.12 session high opens the 157.35 prior high and puts price back inside the 157.00–157.50 former range
Break below the 156.82 higher low ends the rebound chain and exposes the fib 50% at 156.60
Return toward the 156.08 cpi low would put the false-break read in doubt
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from CPI low, higher lows, capped at session high.
Japan's hot core-core CPI pushed the pair through Thursday's 156.69–156.75 prior low to a 156.08 CPI low early in the Asia session. It then reversed about 100 pips to a 157.06 session high, a false break of the prior low. Price is now holding just under 157.00 after a rejection wick at the session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 156.75, 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 157.06, 157.35
What it said to watch
A close back below the 156.75 prior low weakens the false-break read and exposes the 156.50 pivot
Acceptance above the 157.06 session high opens the path toward Thursday's 157.35 NY high
Dips holding the 38.2% rebound fib near 156.68 keep the higher-low sequence intact
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian low 156.08 then higher lows; rally rejected at 157.06 session high.
The post-CPI Asia session slide, with core-core at 2.4%, broke below yesterday's late NY low near 156.75 to a 156.08 Asian low. That break failed and price staged a near-100-pip V-rebound back above the late NY low, then met rejection at the 157.06 session high, just above 157.00 and the broken range floor. RSI(14) has cooled to ~59.
Support: 156.75, 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 157.06, 157.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.06 session high puts the 157.35 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 156.75 late NY low exposes the 156.50 rally pivot, where the rebound fib 50–61.8% sits at 156.57–156.45
A return below the 156.08 Asian low would undo the false-break read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from the asia low, higher lows since 00:30 UTC, now pressing the late-NY range.
Hot Tokyo core-core CPI drove an Asia-session flush to the 156.075 asia low, below yesterday's 156.69 swing low, before buyers stepped in and lifted the pair about 78 pips in a V-shaped rebound. Price is now at the 61.8% fib of the 157.355–156.075 drop and the 156.90 ny range top, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 156.72, 156.23, 156.075
Resistance: 156.90, 157.00, 157.035
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 ny range top and the 157.00 round number exposes the 157.035 swing high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib puts the 156.72 50% fib back in play
Loss of the 156.23 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and reopens the 156.075 asia low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 156.08 session low into the prior-low / EMA50 band.
The Asia session flush to the 156.08 session low, after core-core CPI jumped to 2.4%, has been fully reversed, with the 156.50 breakout cap cleared and price back at 156.72. Price is now retesting Thursday's 156.69 prior low from above, with EMA50 near 156.76 and the 156.81 Asian high directly overhead.
Support: 156.69, 156.50, 156.08
Resistance: 156.81, 157.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.81 Asian high retraces the whole post-CPI leg and puts the 157.03 swing high next
Close back below the 156.69 prior low turns the rebound into a rejection and returns focus to the 156.50 breakout shelf, near the 38.2–50% of the rebound fib
Loss of the rebound line and the 156.08 session low resumes the downtrend
London open is the next liquidity test of this range; US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lows; corrective bounce off 156.075 session low.
Asia session broke below Thursday's 156.69 prior low, extending the risk-off and firmer core-core CPI yen bid to a 156.075 session low before a 43-pip rebound. Price is now at the 50% fib of the Asia leg near 156.44, capped by the 156.50 rebound high. A higher low is holding at 156.23 and RSI(14) is neutral near 44.
Support: 156.23, 156.075, 156.00
Resistance: 156.50, 156.69, 156.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.50 rebound high exposes the 156.69 prior low, now overhead resistance
A return above 156.69 leaves the 156.81 swing high as the last lower high in the Asia leg
Failure to hold the 156.23 higher low reopens the 156.075 session low and the 156.00 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 157.35. Early-Tokyo bounce capped at 156.50..
Firmer Tokyo core-core CPI (2.4%) extended the Asia slide through 156.50 to a session low at 156.075. The rebound stalled with a rejection at 156.50, near the 61.8% retrace of the 156.81–156.08 leg. Price sits under the descending line of lower highs from 157.35, with RSI(14) soft but not oversold.
Support: 156.075, 156.00
Resistance: 156.50, 156.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.50 rejection high breaks the lower-high sequence and points back toward the 156.75 ny low
Failure to hold the 156.075 session low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 156.00 psych level
A move through the lower highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
US S&P Global flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's risk-off yen bid carried USD/JPY through the 156.75 prior low and into a 156.08 session low early in the Asia session, followed by a 40-pip rejection to the 156.50 bounce high. That bounce sits at the 50% of the 156.91–156.08 drop. Just above, the lower-high line from 157.36 (now near 156.58) and the 156.65 Asia high cap the move, with RSI(14) back to ~41.
Support: 156.16, 156.075
Resistance: 156.50, 156.65, 156.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.65 Asia high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence
Loss of the 156.16 bounce base re-exposes the 156.08 session low
156.75 prior low is now overhead; rejection there keeps the breakdown structure intact
US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) and any Japanese FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 156.81, V-rebound from 156.075 now testing the 156.52 broken low.
Early Asia session extended Thursday's risk-off yen bid. The slide after the firmer Japan core CPI print cut through the 156.52 broken low and the 156.39 post-cpi low to a session low at 156.075, then a 43-pip rejection bar followed. Price now sits at the 156.52 broken low, which aligns with the 61.8% fib of the 156.81–156.08 leg. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 15 pips.
Support: 156.39, 156.075
Resistance: 156.52, 156.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.52 broken low and 61.8% fib opens a retest of the 156.75 ny lows
Failure to hold the 156.39 post-cpi low exposes the 156.075 session low again
US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) and any Japanese FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into Asia · RSI 23 · price 156.176
Lower highs from 157.36, prior-day low 156.69 broken after Japan CPI.
Early Asia session extended the lower-high sequence from 157.36. The pair cut through the 156.69 prior low after Japan's core-core CPI jumped to 2.4%, with the 00:00 UTC bar dropping ~34 pips from the 156.54 breakdown area to a 156.11 session low as risk-off and softer US yields kept JPY bid. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, and price is holding just above the low.
Support: 156.11, 156.00
Resistance: 156.54, 156.69
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.54 breakdown level, and the lower highs trendline just below it, would mark the first break in the sell-off structure
Failure to hold the 156.11 session low exposes the 156.00 psych level
A reclaim of the 156.69 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read later in the day
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending into early Asia · RSI 24 · price 156.196
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian session broke below yesterday's lows.
Asia broke below yesterday's 156.69 prior low after Japan core-core CPI jumped to 2.4%, and the 00:00 UTC bar cut through the 156.55 Asia shelf to a 156.17 session low. Descending highs from the 157.36 NY peak remain intact, and RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 156.17, 156.00
Resistance: 156.55, 156.69
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.55 asia shelf would point to the CPI break stalling
Reclaim of the 156.69 prior low invalidates the breakdown and puts the 157.36→156.17 fib retracement in play
Failure to hold the 156.17 session low exposes the 156.00 round number
Descending highs trendline caps the structure while price stays below it
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from the NY session high at 157.355; early Asia swept to 156.394 and closed back above 156.50.
USD/JPY has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 157.355 NY session high, and yen demand picked up after Japan's core-core CPI accelerated to 2.4%. The first Asia bars after the release swept to a 156.394 session low, then closed back near 156.54. Price is pinned around 156.50, with RSI(14) near 32: soft but not stretched.
Support: 156.394, 156.00
Resistance: 156.649, 156.75, 156.906
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.65 lower high and the descending lower-high line breaks the intraday LH chain
Reclaim of the 156.75 prior lows, near the 38.2% fib retrace, would turn the read to a broader correction
Failure to hold the 156.39 session low exposes the 156.00 round number
Swing high at 156.91 caps any rebound while it holds
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence from 157.35; London low broken, fresh lows in early Asia.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs all day from the 157.35 NY-open high, with risk-off yen demand and softer US yields behind the slide. The 156.69 London low gave way late in the session, and a fresh session low at 156.51 printed around the Japan CPI window as early Asia opens. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold, and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 156.51, 156.00
Resistance: 156.69, 157.03
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI (core f/c 2.1%) and the October flash PMI in early Asia could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 156.69 london low and the falling trendline would stall the lower-high sequence
A hold below the 156.51 session low leaves the 156.00 round number as the next reference
A reclaim of the 157.03 lower high, near the 50% fib of the NY decline, would break the intraday downtrend structure