USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Neutral, gap filled then rebound · RSI 55 · price 156.923
Early-Asia range 156.79–157.07 under Friday NY high.
Sunday's reopen gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.825 close. The gap filled at 156.785, which is the 38.2% retracement of Friday's 156.31 swing low to 157.08 NY high leg, and price rebounded to 157.02. Early-Asia trade is boxed between the gap fill and the ny high zone, RSI(14) neutral near 54. Friday's rebound from the 156.08 area on USD stabilisation and sliding JGB yields is intact on this window.
Support: 156.785, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.08 ny high breaks the early-Asia range and exposes the 157.16 friday high
Failure to hold the 156.785 gap fill / 38.2% fib exposes the 156.55 london low, then the 156.31 swing low
Thin early-Asia liquidity; no scheduled data in the next 8h, with Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) the main event risk
Any MoF rhetoric on FX levels would shift this read
Weekly open gap filled; higher low at 156.785 holding.
Monday's early Asia session opened with a gap above the 156.825 fri close to 157.03. The gap filled into an open low at 156.785, which held the 38.2% fib of Friday's PMI-driven rally from 156.31, and price has since rebounded to 156.98. The open high at 157.07 and the friday high at 157.16 cap the range, with early-Asia liquidity thin.
Support: 156.825, 156.785, 156.55
Resistance: 157.07, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.07 open high exposes the friday high at 157.16
A break below the 156.785 open low and fri close reopens the london low at 156.55
No scheduled data in the next 8h; FOMC on Wed at 18:00 UTC is the next major catalyst
Lower highs and higher lows inside Friday's 156.08–157.16 range; weekend gap filled.
The weekly open gapped about 21 pips higher to 157.03, stalled just under the Friday NY high at 157.08 and faded to fill the gap at 156.79 within the first 90 minutes of Asia. Price sits mid-range near 156.87 with RSI(14) flat at 49. Friday's rebound from the 156.08 low, which followed the hot Japan CPI, leaves lower highs at the Friday high of 157.16 and at 157.08, with higher lows at the London low of 156.55 and the pre-NY low of 156.31.
Support: 156.79, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
A close back above the 157.08 Friday NY high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.16 Friday high in play
Failure to hold the 156.79 gap fill low exposes the 156.55 London low
A break of the 156.31 pre-NY low undercuts the higher-lows line toward Friday's 156.08 low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; thin Asia liquidity keeps 157.00 the near-term pivot
22:46 UTC
Neutral, early Asia fading gap-up open · RSI 55 · price 156.918
Sunday gap above Friday close, small open range 156.89–157.07.
The Sunday open gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.825 close. Early Asia session trade has faded from the 157.07 open high to 156.92, so far holding the 156.89 open low. Friday's NY leg rebounded off 156.31, helped by firm US PMIs, and stalled at 157.08; price now sits near the 23.6% of that leg on the NY leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 156.89, 156.825, 156.70
Resistance: 157.07, 157.16
What it said to watch
A break of the 156.89 open low exposes the 156.825 gap fill and then the 156.70 swing low.
An M15 close above the 157.07 open high reopens 157.08–157.16, the fri high.
No scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h. MoF FX rhetoric is the main headline risk in thin Asia liquidity.
22:31 UTC
Two-way intraday, recovering from Friday's NY low · RSI 53 · price 156.907
Sunday gap up rejected at 157.07; trading between Friday close and Friday high.
Friday's Asia slide to 156.08 on the hot Japan CPI was fully retraced. The NY low at 156.31 then gave way to a run to 157.08 after the firm US PMI beat. Sunday's open gapped about 16 pips above the Friday close at 156.83, was rejected at the 157.07 open high and has faded to 156.91, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 156.825, 156.702, 156.309
Resistance: 157.068, 157.159
What it said to watch
Fill of the gap to the Friday close at 156.83 would put the swing low and 50% fib at 156.70 back in focus
Break of the 156.70 swing low reopens the NY low at 156.31
Close above the 157.07 open high exposes the Friday high at 157.16
Thin early-week liquidity until the Asia session fills in can exaggerate moves; Fed and BoJ later in the week are the larger risk
Rising lows from 156.08, weekend gap higher, compressing under 157.08.
Sunday open gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.82 close, extending the rebound from the post-CPI 156.08 low along a series of rising lows (156.08, then 156.31). Early trade is holding above 157.00 and the sunday low at 156.96, but it remains capped beneath Friday's NY high at 157.08 and the 157.16 Friday high. The gap fill is still open, and liquidity is thin ahead of Tokyo.
Support: 156.96, 156.82, 156.55
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 Friday high breaks the two-day cap and points toward the 157.57 range top
Loss of the 156.96 Sunday low puts the 156.82 gap fill back in play
A break below the 156.55 swing low undercuts the rising-lows structure
Tokyo open could reset the thin Sunday range; Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) remain the week's main risk
Higher lows since 156.31, capped under 157.08–157.16.
Sunday's reopen gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.825 close and is pressing the 157.08 NY high in thin early-Asia trade. This extends Friday's NY rally from 156.31, which formed a higher low at the 156.70 NY swing low. The digest frames 157.00 as the level where the post-CPI yen rebound starts to unwind. The reopen low at 156.96 is the nearest floor, with RSI(14) near 71 after the gap.
Support: 156.963, 156.825, 156.702
Resistance: 157.082, 157.159
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.16 friday high breaks Friday's session range
Failure at 157.08 with a return below 156.96 puts the fri close gap fill at 156.825 in play
Loss of the 156.70 NY swing low breaks the NY rally higher-low sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity after the gap can exaggerate moves
US Durable Goods Tue, FOMC Wed, BoJ Fri could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Recovering within Friday's range, gap higher at open · RSI 66 · price 157.004
Weekly-open gap above Friday close, holding near 157.00 under prior high.
The weekly open gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.825 close to 157.03, and price is holding the open low at 156.96 in thin early Asia trade. Friday's NY swing ran from the 156.31 NY low to the 157.08 NY high after the US PMI beat, and the 157.08–157.16 band (NY high and prior high) caps the upper end of Friday's 156.08–157.16 range.
Support: 156.963, 156.825, 156.309
Resistance: 157.082, 157.159
What it said to watch
Close back below the 156.96 open low leaves the gap fill at 156.825 exposed
M15 close above the 157.16 prior high breaks Friday's range top
Sub-157.00 drift into the 50% of the NY swing (~156.70) would erase the open gap and the recovery
US data Tue, FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri keep the 156.08–157.16 range two-way into the week
21:31 UTC
Range-bound, gap-up weekly open · RSI 62 · price 156.98
Friday range 156.08–157.16; Sunday gap above Friday close.
The weekly open gapped about 21 pips above the 156.83 Friday close to a 157.03 gap high and is easing to 156.98 in thin early Asia trade. Friday's NY rebound off the 156.31 NY low, helped by the US PMI beat, stalled at the 157.08 NY high below the 157.16 Friday high, and price holds above the 38.2% fib of that leg.
Support: 156.83, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 157.03, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
A gap fill back to the 156.83 Friday close would erase the weekend bid and return price to Friday's late range
A close above the 157.08 NY high and the 157.16 Friday high would clear the top of Friday's range
Failure at 156.55 (London low) would expose the 156.31 NY low, with thin Asia liquidity exaggerating moves
Friday range 156.08–157.16; NY higher low at 156.31, then a weekend gap up.
Sunday's open gapped about 21 pips above the 156.83 Friday close to 157.03. Price sits at 156.98 in thin early-Asia trade, just under Friday's 157.08 NY high. Friday's NY rebound from the 156.31 NY low followed the US PMI beat and stalled below the 157.16 friday high, leaving the session's range intact.
Support: 156.83, 156.79, 156.31
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
A move back below the 156.83 fri close fills the weekend gap and puts the fib 38.2 at 156.79 in play
An M15 close above the 157.16 friday high breaks the Friday range
Failure to hold the 156.31 ny low reopens the 156.08 five-week low
Tokyo open liquidity and any MoF FX rhetoric could shift this read; FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri frame the week
21:02 UTC
Neutral, two-way chop after Friday's swings · RSI 45 · price 156.825
Wide 156.08–157.16 day range, lower high at 157.08, tight late range 156.81–156.92 into the weekly close.
Friday's Asia-hours drop to 156.08 on hot Japan CPI and risk-off was reversed, but London faded from the 157.16 day high. The NY bounce from the 156.31 NY low came alongside the US PMI and Michigan beats and stalled at a 157.08 NY high, a lower high. Price drifted into the weekly close inside a 156.81–156.92 late range, just under the EMA20 and flat on the EMA50, holding above the 38.2% of the NY swing fib (156.79) with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 156.81, 156.70, 156.31
Resistance: 156.92, 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
Monday Asia open: a gap away from the 156.82 Friday close would reset the late-range read
M15 close above the 156.92 range top reopens the 157.08 NY high; a break there clears the lower highs line toward the 157.16 day high
Loss of the 156.81 late low and the 156.70 swing low exposes the 156.31 NY low
Tue US Durable Goods/ADP and Wed FOMC (hold at 4.00% expected) could materially shift this read