Higher lows (157.375 → 157.431) pressing the 157.641 session high.
Monday's Asian range of 156.65–157.22 broke higher in London as USD short-covering into FOMC left JPY the weakest major, and the advance extended to a 157.641 session high in NY. The NY pullback held 157.375, near the 23.6% fib of the 156.65–157.64 leg. A post-NY higher low at 157.431 has price back at 157.59 as the new Asia session opens, RSI(14) at 61 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 157.431, 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.641, 157.79
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.641 session high reopens the 157.79 week open
Failure to hold the 157.431 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 157.375 ny pullback low back in play
A break of 157.375 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.243 ldn-ny low near the 38.2% fib
Tuesday's Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Wednesday's FOMC are the next scheduled catalysts for this read
Higher lows from 156.65, tight consolidation under 157.64.
Monday's rally from the 156.65 low topped at the 157.64 NY high as pre-FOMC USD short-covering and a soft yen lifted the pair. Since the 157.38 pullback low, price has compressed in a 157.43–157.56 band into early Asia, sitting on the 157.50 area the digest flags as a cap; RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 157.431, 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.564, 157.641
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.56 Asia high and then the 157.64 NY high extends the higher-high sequence of the rally
A break below the 157.43 range low exposes the 157.38 pullback low; failure there puts the 157.24 swing low near the rally's 38.2% retracement in play
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC Tuesday, then FOMC Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 156.65; tight overnight range 157.43–157.56 under the 157.64 high.
Monday's climb from the 156.65 Asia low topped at the 157.64 session high in NY hours, driven by pre-FOMC USD short-covering and risk-on yen weakness. The pullback held at 157.37, the pullback low near the 23.6% fib, and price is now coiling in early Asia between the 157.43 overnight low and the 157.56 overnight high, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 157.43, 157.37, 157.24
Resistance: 157.56, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 session high breaks the consolidation and clears the 157.50–157.57 cap flagged in the digest
Loss of the 157.43 overnight low puts the 157.37 pullback low in play; below that, the 157.24 swing low sits next to the 38.2% fib at 157.26
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the read ahead of Wed's FOMC
23:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 46 · price 157.47
Higher lows from 156.65 Asia low; 157.37–157.56 range since NY fade.
Pre-FOMC USD short-covering and broad yen weakness lifted the pair about 99 pips from the 156.65 Asia low to a 157.64 day high in NY. Since then it has ranged 157.37–157.56 into early Asia, holding above the 23.6% fib with the late high at 157.56 capping. RSI(14) is neutral and price sits on flat EMAs.
Support: 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.564, 157.641
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.641 day high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 157.375 ny low exposes the 157.243 london dip near the 38.2% fib
Tokyo morning flows test the 157.37–157.56 range; no scheduled data in the next 8h
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 53 · price 157.499
Asian range broken higher; post-NY consolidation 157.38–157.56 with a lower high.
London cleared the Asian high at 157.22 and NY extended to a day high at 157.64, as pre-FOMC USD short-covering and risk-on yen weakness drove the move. Since then price has held a 157.38 ny low and drifted back to 157.50 in thin post-close trade, with a late high at 157.56 sitting under the day high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 157.375, 157.22
Resistance: 157.564, 157.641
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.64 day high resumes the higher-high chain; the late high at 157.56 is the first cap under the lower-highs line
Break below the 157.38 ny low opens a retrace toward the 38.2% fib near 157.26 and the 157.22 asian high
Asia session open in ~1h adds liquidity; the range so far has formed in thin post-NY trade
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed FOMC are the next scheduled catalysts for USD direction
22:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing under day high · RSI 61 · price 157.547
Higher lows since Asia; tight post-NY compression below 157.641.
Pre-FOMC USD short-covering and a soft yen lifted USD/JPY out of the 156.65–157.22 Asian range at London open, building higher lows into a 157.641 NY day high. The post-NY pullback held the 157.374 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and price is now compressing just under the 157.564 late high in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 157.438, 157.374, 157.243
Resistance: 157.564, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.641 day high extends the higher-high chain through the 157.20–157.50 cap zone
A break of the 157.438 rollover low puts the 157.374 swing low and the 38.2% fib back in play
Loss of the 157.243 midday low breaks the higher-low sequence on this window
Higher-lows trendline from 157.243 is the near-term structural floor; a sustained break flattens the read
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed FOMC can reset this structure; Asia session liquidity is thin until then
HH/HL chain from 156.649 Asia low; tight post-NY range 157.44–157.56.
London cleared Monday's Asia high at 157.218 and NY extended the higher-high/higher-low sequence to a 157.641 session high as JPY softened on risk-on flows and pre-Fed USD short-covering. The late-NY pullback held 157.374 (NY low) near the 23.6% fib. Price is now compressing between the 157.438 rollover low and the 157.564 late high, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 157.438, 157.374, 157.218
Resistance: 157.564, 157.641
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.641 session high extends the HH/HL chain; repeated failure at the 157.564 late high keeps price boxed in
A break of the 157.438 rollover low that also clears the 157.374 NY low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.218 Asia high and the 38.2% fib near 157.26
The Tokyo open could resolve the post-rollover range; Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wednesday's Fed decision are the next event risks
22:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 55 · price 157.488
Asian range broken higher; NY lower high, tight post-NY coil.
London broke the Asian range high at 157.22 and NY extended to a 157.64 day high before fading to the 157.38 ny low. The move came on JPY weakness from risk-on flows and pre-Fed USD short-covering. Price is now coiling 157.44–157.55 in the thin post-NY hours, sitting on ema20 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 157.438, 157.375, 157.26
Resistance: 157.55, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.55 coil high puts the 157.64 day high back in play
Break of the 157.44 coil low exposes the 157.38 ny low; failure there opens the fib 38.2 near 157.26
Tokyo open within ~2h can expand the narrow late-session range
Wednesday's Fed decision is the main risk to this structure
21:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 56 · price 157.485
Asian range broken higher; post-NY compression 157.45–157.55 above NY pullback low.
London broke the 157.22 Asian high as JPY softened on risk-on and USD short-covering. NY extended to a 157.64 day high, and the pullback held the 157.375 NY low near the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. Early Asia trade is compressing between the 157.45 micro low and the 157.55 late high, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 157.45, 157.375, 157.22
Resistance: 157.55, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.55 late high and 157.64 day high extends the London-NY breakout leg
Loss of the 157.45 micro low and the 157.375 NY low (below the 61.8% fib) opens a deeper retrace toward the 157.22 Asian high
Thin early-Asia liquidity keeps the 157.45–157.55 compression vulnerable to a false break
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wednesday's Fed decision are the next scheduled USD catalysts
HH/HL chain from Asian low; post-NY consolidation 157.37–157.55.
London cleared the 157.22 Asian high and the rally ran to a 157.64 session high in NY as JPY lagged on pre-Fed USD short-covering. The pullback stalled at a 157.37 swing low twice, just through the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg, and price is compressing under a 157.55 late high on rising support into the rollover.
Support: 157.374, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.55, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.37 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.24 pullback low
Acceptance above the 157.64 session high extends the HH sequence beyond the 157.57 cap cited in the digest
A slide back under the Asian high at 157.22 would negate the London breakout
Thin post-rollover liquidity ahead of the Asia session; Tuesday's 12:30 UTC Durable Goods is the next scheduled US release, Fed Wednesday
Higher highs and higher lows from the 156.65 Asian low; NY high 157.64 faded, 157.37 pullback low held.
Yen weakness and USD short-covering lifted the pair from the 156.65 Asian low through the 157.22 Asian high in London, and NY pushed to a 157.64 session high before fading back under the 157.57 cap. The pullback held twice near the 157.37 ny low, a shallow retracement of the day's leg, and price is drifting back toward 157.52 in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 157.374, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.57, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 session high clears the 157.57 cap and extends the higher-high chain
Break below the 157.37 ny low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.24 london low and 157.22 asian high
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods sets the pre-Fed tone and could materially shift this read
Higher low at 157.37 held above swing low; lower high at 157.54 under 157.64 peak.
London broke the 157.22 Asian high, and NY extended the move to a 157.64 session high as the yen weakened broadly and USD shorts were trimmed before the Fed. Price could not hold above the 157.57 cap and faded to a 157.37 NY low, a shallow pullback of about 27% of the 156.65–157.64 leg. Late NY is now consolidating at 157.48–157.54 beneath a lower high at the 157.54 bounce high. RSI(14) is neutral at 54 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.536, 157.57, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 session high clears the 157.57 cap and the lower-highs line
Break of the 157.37 ny low exposes the 157.24 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Thin liquidity into the Asia session and rollover can distort the 157.48–157.54 consolidation
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods and the Wed Fed decision could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 57 · price 157.499
HH/HL from Asian low, late-NY consolidation 157.37–157.54.
USD/JPY climbed from the 156.65 Asian low, broke the 157.22 Asian high in London and printed a 157.64 day high in NY before rejection back under the 157.57 cap, in line with pre-FOMC USD repositioning. Late NY is holding higher lows off the 157.37 NY low and is capped at a 157.54 late high. The pullback stalled near the 23.6% of the day rally fib.
Support: 157.37, 157.22
Resistance: 157.54, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 day high would clear the 157.57 cap and extend the HH chain
A break below the 157.37 NY low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 157.22 Asian high
Repeated failure at the 157.54 late high keeps the consolidation read intact
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence could shift this read ahead of Wed FOMC
Higher lows intact after a NY pullback; price rebuilding toward the 157.57 cap.
The pair lifted on Monday's USD rebound into Fed week. London broke the Asian high at 157.22 and NY extended to a 157.641 session high, briefly clearing the 157.57 cap before a rejection sent it back to the 157.37 swing low. The late-NY recovery to 157.51 holds the higher-low line and the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 157.374, 157.243
Resistance: 157.57, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.641 session high reopens the move beyond the 157.57 cap
Failure to hold the 157.374 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.243 london low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.24; lower high at 157.53 under the 157.64 top.
London broke above the Asian high at 157.22 on pre-FOMC USD firmness, and NY extended the move to a 157.64 session high. The pullback found demand twice at the 157.37 ny low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the day move from 156.65, and price is now pressing a 157.53 lower high in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 157.37, 157.22
Resistance: 157.53, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.53 lower high and the 157.64 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Break of the 157.37 ny low and rising support turns structure to lower lows, exposing the 157.22 asian high
Thin Asia-session liquidity ahead of Tue durable goods and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering after NY fade · RSI 54 · price 157.527
Higher lows from 156.65 Asia low; 157.64 session high rejected, 157.37 NY low held.
After a weekend gap up and an Asia flush to 156.65, USDJPY climbed through London and NY on the pre-FOMC USD bid. It tagged a 157.64 session high before fading to a 157.37 NY low near the 23.6% fib. Late NY has recovered to 157.53, back at the 157.50–157.57 prior cap that has been capping the pair, with RSI(14) mid-range near 54.
Support: 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.57, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 session high extends the higher-high chain past the prior cap
Failure to hold the 157.37 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 157.24 london low and the 157.22 asia high
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read; Tokyo open in ~4h may reset the range
HH/HL from 156.649 Asian low; shallow pullback held 157.375, retesting 157.50.
USD/JPY climbed 99 pips from the 156.649 Asian low as the USD firmed on pre-FOMC repositioning. London cleared the 157.218 Asian high, and NY printed a 157.641 session high before rejection inside the 157.20–157.57 cap zone. The swing low at 157.375 held only a 27% retracement of that move, and late NY is now pressing the 157.505 late high.
Support: 157.375, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.505, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.641 session high clears the cap zone and extends the HH chain
Break below the 157.375 swing low exposes the 157.243 midday low and the 157.218 asian high
Thin late-NY and Asia session conditions ahead of Wed FOMC; the Fed decision could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 44 · price 157.464
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; lower highs since the NY peak, now boxed 157.375–157.50.
Yen was Monday's weakest major as USD shorts were trimmed into FOMC. London cleared the Asian range high at 157.218 and NY extended to a 157.641 day high, but the push above the 157.57 cap failed and price faded. Late NY is basing at 157.375 (ny base), a shallow 23.6% retrace, with the 157.50 band top capping.
Support: 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.50, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.375 ny base exposes the 157.243 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Close back above the 157.50 band top and pullback line reopens the 157.641 day high
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back off NY high · RSI 45 · price 157.46
London broke Asian range high; NY topped at 157.64, now basing at 157.37 below 157.50 cap.
USD short-trimming carried USDJPY out of the 156.65–157.22 Asian range during London, and NY extended to a 157.64 session high before fading 27 pips. Demand stepped in twice at 157.37, the 38.2% fib of the 156.93–157.64 leg, while the 157.50 intraday cap is capping the late-NY bounce.
Support: 157.37, 157.24, 157.22
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.50 intraday cap reopens the 157.64 session high
Failure to hold the 157.37 fib base exposes the 157.24 pre-NY low and the 157.22 Asian high
157.50–157.57 is the broader cap flagged in the digest; Asia session liquidity is typically thin
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
HH/HL from 156.649 Asian low, now a tight 157.37–157.45 consolidation.
London cleared the 157.218 Asian high and NY extended to a 157.641 session high as USD short-trimming ran ahead of FOMC. After London close price eased into a 157.37–157.45 consolidation, holding the late-NY low near the 23.6% fib with the 157.495 prior high capping.
Support: 157.374, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 prior high puts the 157.641 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.374 late-NY low exposes the 157.243 swing low near the 38.2% fib, then the 157.218 Asian high
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
18:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now in pullback · RSI 39 · price 157.425
HH/HL chain from Asian low to NY high, lower highs since.
Yen weakness on the pre-FOMC dollar bounce carried USDJPY from the 156.65 Asian low through the asian high, the London high and up to a 157.64 session high in early NY. Late NY has since faded about 27 pips into the 23.6% fib near 157.41. Price is now holding the 157.37 pullback low back inside the 157.20–157.50 cap zone, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.374, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.37 pullback low opens the 38.2% fib and the 157.24 swing low
Loss of the 157.22 asian high would undo the London breakout
Reclaim of the 157.50 london high puts the 157.64 session high back in view
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence (12:15–14:00 UTC) could reset the range ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
HH/HL rally to 157.64 session high; lower highs since, now a tight 157.375–157.45 box.
USD firmed into FOMC and lifted the pair off the 156.65 Asian low. Price cleared the 157.22 Asian high in London and peaked at the 157.64 session high in NY, where it met rejection. It has since faded about 25 pips into a late-NY consolidation between the 157.375 pullback low and the ema20 near 157.45, just above the 23.6% fib of the day's rally.
Support: 157.375, 157.243
Resistance: 157.45, 157.495, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.375 pullback low opens the 157.24 swing low, which sits beside the 38.2% fib at 157.26
Reclaim of the ema20 at 157.45 and the 157.495 prior high puts the 157.64 session high back in play
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence (12:15–14:00 UTC) ahead of Wed FOMC could shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in late NY · RSI 43 · price 157.423
HH/HL chain from the Asian low capped at 157.64; lower highs since, basing near 157.38.
London broke the Asian high at 157.22, and NY extended the HH chain to a 157.64 session high as the dollar recovered ahead of the Fed. The push through the 157.50 cap was rejected, and price slipped back under it after London close. The late-NY fade broke the rising line from the Asian low, and price is now basing at the NY low near 157.38, on the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.375, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.50, 157.641
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.375 NY low exposes the 157.24 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high move
Holding above the 157.22 Asian high keeps the London breakout intact; a break back inside the Asian range turns the read neutral
Reclaiming the 157.50 cap and closing above the 157.64 session high would resume the HH chain
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and consumer confidence (14:00 UTC) are the last pre-FOMC data and could shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading into late NY · RSI 44 · price 157.418
Asian range broken higher; lower highs off 157.64 session high.
USDJPY gapped higher on the weekly open. London broke above the 157.22 Asian range high, and NY extended to a 157.64 session high as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the FOMC. The late-NY fade printed lower highs below the 157.50 prior high and is now testing the 157.35 ny pivot near the 23.6% fib, with the 157.24 london low the last higher low.
Support: 157.35, 157.243
Resistance: 157.495, 157.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.24 london low (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Reclaim of the 157.50 prior high reopens the 157.64 session high
Thin Asia session follows; Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods is the next scheduled USD catalyst before Wed FOMC
17:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 47 · price 157.434
HH/HL chain from the 156.65 Asia low; push above 157.50 failed to hold.
USD short-covering ahead of the Fed carried the pair from the 156.65 Asia low through the 157.22 Asian high in London, then to a 157.64 session high in NY. Price has since slipped back below the 157.50 range cap and is now at 157.43, just above the 157.38 NY low and near the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits under EMA20.
Support: 157.38, 157.24
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.38 NY low exposes the 157.24 swing low near the 38.2% fib
M15 close back above the 157.50 range cap would undo the false break and put the 157.64 session high back in play
Durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and the FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled event risks
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 157.41
HH/HL chain from 156.65 broken; lower highs off 157.64.
London broke the Asian high at 157.22 as the dollar bounced on pre-Fed short-covering, and the climb set a 157.64 session high during the London-NY transition. Since London close, price has slipped back under the 157.50 prior high and through the london trendline. It now sits on the 23.6% retracement near 157.41, with RSI(14) at 44 and the 157.35 swing low the next pivot.
Support: 157.35, 157.26, 157.22
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.35 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.26 and the asian high at 157.22
M15 close back above the 157.50 prior high puts the 157.64 session high back in focus
Tue 12:30 UTC durable goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 45 · price 157.436
Higher lows from the Asian low; lower highs since the NY peak.
London broke the Asian high at 157.22, and NY extended to a 157.64 session high as USD rebuilt into Wednesday's FOMC. Since then, price has printed lower highs after London close. It has slipped back below the 157.50 prior cap and the rising trendline, and is now testing the 23.6% fib near 157.41 with RSI(14) at about 45.
Support: 157.35, 157.22
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64
What it said to watch
Holding the 157.35 swing low keeps the higher-low chain from the 156.65 Asian low intact
An M15 close below 157.35 exposes the Asian high at 157.22, near the 38.2% fib
Reclaiming the 157.50 prior cap and the rising trendline puts the 157.64 session high back in play
Tue durable goods (12:30 UTC) and Wed FOMC guidance could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 157.49
HH/HL chain since Asian low, retesting rising trendline.
USD/JPY built a HH/HL chain from the 156.65 Asian low through London and NY as USD shorts were trimmed into Fed week, printing a 157.64 session high. Price has eased after London close back into the 157.50 cap zone and onto the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to ~54 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 157.42, 157.35, 157.24
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.42 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 157.35 NY dip low
Loss of the 157.24 higher low would put the 38.2% day rally fib near 157.26 in play
Reclaim of the 157.50 cap zone and a push through the 157.64 session high resumes the uptrend read
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asia low; pullback testing prior high.
Monday's Asian range (156.65–157.22) broke higher in London, and NY extended the higher-low chain to a 157.641 session high, clearing the 157.20–157.50 cap as the yen stayed the weakest major ahead of the Fed and BoJ. After London close, price is easing back onto the 157.50 prior high with RSI(14) near 58, and the rising support from the London lows sits just underneath.
Support: 157.495, 157.349, 157.243
Resistance: 157.641, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.50 prior high puts price back inside the old 157.20–157.50 cap
Loss of the 157.349 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
A break of the 157.243 London low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NY leg near 157.26
Acceptance above the 157.641 session high opens the 158.00 psych level
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed's Fed decision, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; consolidating under session high in late NY.
USD/JPY has held a higher-low chain off the 156.649 Asian low as the dollar bounced ahead of this week's Fed and BoJ. London cleared the Asian high at 157.218 and NY pushed through 157.50 to a 157.641 session high. Price is now consolidating just under that high in late NY with RSI(14) near 61, while the prior high at 157.495 and rising support from the London-open low sit below.
Support: 157.495, 157.349, 157.218
Resistance: 157.641, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the prior high at 157.495 would put the 157.50 breakout in question
A break of rising support and the 157.349 swing low would end the higher-low chain
A close above the 157.641 session high opens the path toward the 158.00 round number
The Asian high at 157.218 sits near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY leg; losing it negates the London breakout
Liquidity thins after the NY close into Asia; Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the next US data risk ahead of Wed's FOMC
HH/HL chain from the Asia low; Asian range high broken in London, extended in NY.
From the 156.65 Asia low, London broke the Asian range high at 157.22 and NY carried the higher-low chain to a 157.64 session high as USD shorts were trimmed into the Fed. Price is holding above the 157.50 prior high, the top of the 157.20–157.50 cap band, with RSI(14) at 64 and ATR(14) near 9 pips.
Support: 157.528, 157.495, 157.243
Resistance: 157.641, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.53 swing low turns focus to the 157.50 prior high; a close back below it puts price back inside the former cap band
A break of rising support from the London-open low, then the 157.24 pre-NY low (near the 38.2% of the Asia low fib), would end the higher-low chain
A close above the 157.64 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the Fed decision Wed, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low at 156.649.
London broke the Asian range high at 157.218 and NY pushed through the 157.20–157.50 former-support band to a session high of 157.641, with USD shorts trimmed ahead of Wednesday's Fed. The higher-low chain from the london low at 157.243 to the NY higher low at 157.349 holds the trendline. After London close, price is pausing just above the 157.495 prior high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 157.495, 157.349, 157.243
Resistance: 157.641, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.495 prior high puts price back inside the 157.20–157.50 cap band
Break of the 157.349 higher low and the trendline from the london low ends the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 157.641 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods and Wednesday's Fed decision could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open; 157.50 cap broken in NY.
USD/JPY cleared the 157.50 prior cap during NY hours after five failed tests, printing a session high at 157.63 as the dollar firmed into Wednesday's Fed. The HH/HL chain off the 156.93 London low is intact along a rising trendline, with the 157.24 NY swing low sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-low rally. RSI(14) at 64 is not stretched.
Support: 157.50, 157.35, 157.243
Resistance: 157.632, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.50 prior cap would mark a false break of the band
Loss of the 157.35 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.24 NY swing low
Break of the 157.24 NY swing low ends the HH/HL chain
Session high at 157.63 is the first area to monitor for rejection; the 158.00 round number sits above
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the Asian low; NY trading above the 157.50 cap.
London broke the 156.65–157.22 Asian range high. Mid-NY session, price has cleared the repeated 157.495 prior high and printed a session high at 157.632, as the USD firmed on short-covering into Wednesday's Fed. Higher lows at the 157.243 London low and the 157.349 swing low sit on a rising trendline from the Asian low, with RSI(14) at 64 showing room before stretched levels.
Support: 157.495, 157.349, 157.243
Resistance: 157.632, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.495 prior high would turn the 157.50 cap break into a false break
A break of the 157.349 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Extension through the session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
Tue 12:30 UTC durable goods and Wed Fed decision could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 157.50 · RSI 58 · price 157.505
Higher lows since the 156.65 Asian low; NY capped at 157.50.
London cleared the 157.22 asian high and built a higher-low chain off the 156.65 Asian low as the dollar firmed into Fed week and JPY lagged. NY has stalled at the 157.50 range cap: five tops cluster at 157.49-157.50 and the wick to a 157.58 session high closed back below. RSI(14) sits near 58, with no extreme.
Support: 157.35, 157.22, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 session high clears the 157.50 range cap
Loss of the 157.35 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.22 asian high at the 38.2% fib
A close back under the 157.00 round number returns price to the Asian range
Durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's Fed decision could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the Asian low; Asian range broken higher in London.
London broke the Asian high at 157.218 and NY extended the HH/HL chain to a 157.581 session high as USD short-covering continued ahead of the Fed, with JPY the weakest major. Price is pressing the 157.50-157.57 former-range-floor cap. The 157.349 NY low and the rising trendline from the 156.649 Asian low are the nearest higher-low structure, with RSI(14) at 62 and not stretched.
Support: 157.349, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.581, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.581 session high clears the 157.50-157.57 cap and opens the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold the 157.349 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.243 london low
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.218 asian high (38.2% of the asian low-session high leg) puts price back inside the Asian range
Durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the Fed on Wed and the BoJ on Fri, could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 157.50 · RSI 59 · price 157.467
HH/HL chain since London open, compressing under the session high.
USD/JPY gapped higher at the weekly open. London cleared the asian high at 157.22 as USD short-covering extended into the Fed week. The session high at 157.495 has capped five tests through NY, while a higher low at 157.35 and the pullback low at 157.24 hold along rising support, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 59.
Support: 157.349, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 session high breaks the 157.50 cap and exposes the 157.57 tech cap
Failure to hold the 157.35 higher low and rising support shifts the read to a range back toward the 157.24 pullback low
Loss of the 157.22 asian high would undo the London breakout
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the main catalyst for the 157.20-157.50 zone. US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC comes first.
14:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 157.50 · RSI 56 · price 157.441
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, now compressing in a 157.24–157.50 band.
London cleared the 157.22 Asian high and extended the higher-low chain from the 156.65 Asian low as USD short-covering left JPY the weakest major. Since late London, price has compressed between the 157.24 swing low and the 157.50 session high. The session high has been rejected four times into early NY, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 157.349, 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.50 session high would break the cap the digest flags as the former range floor.
Loss of the 157.35 higher low and then the 157.24 swing low would break the rising support line and bring the 157.22 Asian high back into play.
No scheduled releases in the next 8h. Tuesday's US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and Wednesday's FOMC are the next catalysts that could shift this read.
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 157.378
Higher lows since Asian low; 157.50 cap tested repeatedly.
London cleared the Asian high at 157.22, and the 157.24 swing low held above it as the dollar firmed into Wednesday's FOMC. Into the NY session the 157.50 session high has capped five tests, and the latest rejection pulled price back to the rising trendline near 157.35, with RSI neutral at 54.
Support: 157.24, 157.22, 156.93
Resistance: 157.50, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.24 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.22 asian high in play
Loss of 157.22 opens the 157.17 38.2% retracement of the asian low–session high leg, then the 156.93 london low
M15 close above the 157.50 session high opens 157.57, the noted cap in the digest
No scheduled US or JPY releases in the next 8h; Wednesday's FOMC remains the main event risk this week
Higher-low chain since the Asia low, NY session pressing a flat cap at the session high.
London broke the Asian high at 157.218 and built higher lows along a rising trendline. The 12:30 UTC NY dip held the 157.243 swing low, and price is now pressing the 157.495 session high for a fourth time. JPY is the weakest major as USD shorts are trimmed into Wednesday's FOMC, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 157.405, 157.243, 157.082
Resistance: 157.495, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 session high clears the 157.50 cap and opens the 157.57 tech level
Break of the 157.405 micro low puts the 157.243 swing low and the rising trendline back in play
Failure to hold the 157.082 friday high would unwind the London breakout
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Tue Durable Goods and Wed FOMC are the next catalysts
13:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 60 · price 157.436
Higher lows since the Asian low; Asian high broken in London and retested in NY.
London lifted USDJPY through the 157.218 Asian high as the dollar recovered ahead of the FOMC. The early-NY pullback low at 157.243 held as a retest of that break. A second push then stalled at the 157.495 session high, the top of the cited 157.20–157.50 cap zone, with RSI(14) near 60 and the rising trendline from the 156.649 Asian low intact.
Support: 157.243, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 session high clears the 157.50 cap zone and exposes 157.57
Loss of the 157.243 pullback low and the 157.218 Asian high undoes the London breakout
Break of the rising trendline from the Asian low shifts structure from higher lows to range
Next scheduled US catalyst is Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; price pressing the session high.
After a 156.65 Asia low, USD/JPY carved higher lows through London as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the FOMC, breaking the Asian high at 157.22. The early-NY ny dip low at 157.24 retested that Asian high and held on rising support, and price is back at the 157.49 session high, inside the 157.20–157.50 cap zone flagged in the digest.
Support: 157.243, 157.218, 156.925
Resistance: 157.495, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 session high exposes the 157.57 upper cap
Break below the 157.24 ny dip low and the rising support line negates the higher-low chain
Loss of 156.93 london low would shift the read to a full Asia-to-London retracement
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
13:17 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 58 · price 157.444
HH/HL chain since London open, holding above Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 157.218 and extended to a 157.495 session high into the NY open as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed. The pullback held at the 157.243 swing low, above the old Asian high. Price is now back near the session high, at the top of the 157.20–157.50 cap zone flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 157.243, 157.218, 156.925
Resistance: 157.495
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.495 session high clears the 157.20–157.50 cap zone
Break of the 157.243 swing low and the asian high at 157.218 puts price back inside the old range, with the 38.2% fib near 157.17 below
Loss of the london trend line and the 156.925 london low ends the HH/HL sequence
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri 30 Oct could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, paused after rejection at 157.50 · RSI 50 · price 157.314
HH/HL chain from the 156.93 London low; pullback holding above the Asian range high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 157.22 and ran to a session high of 157.50. Supply capped it there during the London-NY transition, at the top of the 157.20–157.50 zone the digest flags as former support. The pullback low at 157.24 is holding near the 38.2% fib of the London move, with RSI(14) back to 50 as USD firms modestly ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 157.24, 157.22, 156.93
Resistance: 157.40, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.22 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 156.93 London low
A clean break of the 157.24 pullback low and the 50% fib near 157.21 marks a lower low on this timeframe
M15 close above the 157.50 session high breaks the cap; the 157.40 prior high is the first test on any rebound
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 50 · price 157.302
Higher-low chain from Asian low, now pulling back off 157.495.
London cleared the Asian high at 157.218 and stepped higher to a 157.495 session high at the NY open, where it met rejection inside the 157.20–157.50 cap the digest flags as USD shorts are trimmed into the Fed. The early-NY pullback to the 157.243 pullback low is testing rising support from the Asian low, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 157.243, 157.218, 157.071
Resistance: 157.402, 157.495
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.218 Asian high and rising support breaks the higher-low chain; 157.071 swing low (50% fib) is next
Reclaim of the 157.402 prior high puts the 157.495 session high back in play
Close above 157.50 would mark a break of the digest's 157.20–157.50 cap
Fed on Wednesday and BoJ on Friday; positioning is light into both, so intraday ranges may stay compressed
Higher lows above the Asian high, capped at the 157.495 session high.
London broke above the Asian high at 157.218 and extended to a 157.495 session high. The move came as USD shorts were trimmed before the Fed, pressing into the top of the 157.20–157.50 cap. The last full bar rejected that high and pulled back to the 157.317 higher low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooled to ~57 and price hugging EMA20; the higher-lows chain from the 157.269 pullback low is still intact.
Support: 157.317, 157.269, 157.218
Resistance: 157.495
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.317 higher low and 157.269 pullback low breaks the London higher-lows chain
Return below the Asian high at 157.218 would turn the London breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 157.495 session high clears the top of the 157.20–157.50 cap
NY session flows into Tuesday's US Durable Goods and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 157.454
HH/HL chain since London open, Asian range broken higher.
USDJPY gapped higher at the weekly open and, after an Asian swing to 156.65, London cleared the 157.22 Asian high as USD shorts were trimmed into FOMC. The run of higher lows from the 156.93 London low has pushed price to a 157.495 session high at the top of the 157.20–157.50 band. RSI(14) is in the mid-60s and not stretched.
Support: 157.308, 157.218, 156.925
Resistance: 157.495
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.50 session high takes price out of the 157.20–157.50 band
A break of the 157.31 higher low dents the HH/HL chain
A close back below the 157.22 Asian high and rising support turns the breakout into a false break
A slide to the London low near 156.93 (61.8% fib) would unwind most of the London leg
Durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next event risks for this read
HH/HL chain since London open, above the Asian range.
Monday gapped above Friday's 156.83 close. The Asian range ran 156.65–157.22, and London broke the Asian high at 157.22 and stepped higher to a 157.44 session high late in London. Price is now testing the 157.20–157.50 band below the 157.50 band top as USD shorts are trimmed into FOMC, with RSI(14) near 69 and not stretched.
Support: 157.30, 157.218, 157.082
Resistance: 157.443, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.30 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
A clean close through the 157.44 session high and the 157.50 band top clears the old support band
A drop through Friday high 157.08 and the rising support line would erase the Monday gap advance
First hour of NY could test the band; Tue durable goods and Wed FOMC loom beyond this window
Higher lows since the Asia low; Asian range broken higher in London, tight 157.27–157.40 band.
London broke the Asian high at 157.22 and extended the higher-low chain from the 156.65 Asia low to a 157.40 session high. Late London is compressing between the 157.27 swing low and 157.40, inside the 157.20–157.50 cap zone flagged into the Fed/BoJ week, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched. The higher-low trendline has risen to roughly 157.20, so it lines up with the Asian high.
Support: 157.27, 157.22, 156.93
Resistance: 157.40, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.40 session high puts the 157.50 cap zone top in play
Loss of the 157.27 swing low exposes a retest of the 157.22 Asian high and the higher-low trendline
Break back below the Asian high toward the 156.93 London low would undo the London breakout read
Nothing scheduled in the next 8h. Durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Wed FOMC are the next catalysts for the 157.20–157.50 cap
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; London broke the Asian range high and is coiling in a 157.27–157.40 box.
London cleared the Asian high at 157.22 and set a session high at 157.40. USD is firm into Wednesday's FOMC, and price is now pressing the 157.20–157.50 cap. Higher lows at 157.27 and 157.30 keep the chain off the Asian low intact, with RSI(14) near 68 cooling rather than stretched.
Support: 157.27, 157.22, 156.93
Resistance: 157.40, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.27 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the Asian high at 157.22 would turn the London breakout into a false break
Clean break of the 157.40 session high exposes the 157.50 round number, the top of the cap
Rising trendline from the Asian low and the London low at 156.93 mark the deeper intraday floor
NY open later today; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri could materially shift this read
Higher lows above Asian range high, pressing into 157.20-157.50 cap.
London broke above the Asian high at 157.218 and printed a session high at 157.402. That puts price inside the 157.20-157.50 range cap the market has respected into the Fed and BoJ. A twice-tested swing low at 157.269 keeps the higher-low chain intact. RSI(14) is at 62 and not stretched, though the last two bars stalled under the high.
Support: 157.269, 157.218, 157.071
Resistance: 157.402, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.269 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the asian high at 157.218
Loss of the 157.071 pullback low puts the rising support from the Asian session low back in play
Acceptance above the 157.402 session high and the 157.50 range cap would clear the ceiling flagged into FOMC
NY open liquidity may test the session high; Tue durable goods and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows from Asian low · RSI 72 · price 157.379
London broke above Asian range high; HH/HL chain intact.
After a modest weekend gap higher, USDJPY climbed steadily from the 156.65 Asian low. London cleared the Asian high at 157.22 and printed a session high at 157.40, pressing into the 157.20–157.50 ceiling the digest flags ahead of the Fed and BoJ. RSI(14) is near 72 and the higher-low trendline from the London low at 156.93 is still respected.
Support: 157.269, 157.218, 156.925
Resistance: 157.402, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 asian high would mark a false break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 157.27 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and the trendline
Close above the 157.40 session high and 157.50 round number clears the 157.20–157.50 ceiling
Loss of the 156.93 london low puts the 61.8% retrace of the Asian-low rally in play
No scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed are the next catalysts
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 66 · price 157.289
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian high broken, London trendline lost.
After a weekend gap up and an Asian low at 156.649, London broke the Asian high at 157.218 and set a session high at 157.364 inside the 157.20–157.50 zone that capped last week. The latest pullback has broken the London trendline from 156.925, with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-60s as trade stays quiet ahead of the Fed and BoJ.
Support: 157.218, 157.08, 156.925
Resistance: 157.364, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 157.218 turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the fri high at 157.08 exposes the london low at 156.925, near the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg
Clearing the session high at 157.364 and the 157.50 zone top opens the path to 157.57
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London broke Asian range high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 157.22 and pushed a HH/HL chain from the 156.65 Asian low to a 157.36 session high. That puts price inside the 157.20–157.50 broken-support band the digest flags ahead of the Fed and BoJ. RSI(14) is near 78 and the last two bars have stalled under the high.
Support: 157.22, 157.07, 156.93
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian high at 157.22 would turn the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.07 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; the 50% fib of the asian low–session high leg sits near 157.01, with the trendline from the Asian low around 157.12
A break of the 156.93 london low would erase the London advance
A clear break of the 157.50 zone top takes price out of the broken-support band
The Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) loom this week; thin pre-event conviction can leave the 157.20–157.50 zone capping
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 79 · price 157.342
London HH/HL chain after break of Asian range high.
Mid-London, the pair has cleared the 157.22 Asian high and Friday's 157.08 prior high in a clean HH/HL chain to a 157.36 session high, with RSI(14) near 79 and ATR around 8 pips. Price now sits inside the 157.20–157.50 range cap, the former support band flagged in the yen digest, with trade sidelined ahead of this week's Fed and BoJ.
Support: 157.22, 157.08
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 157.50 range cap clears the band that has capped the pair into the central banks
Loss of the 157.08 prior high and the Asia rising support line breaks the London HH/HL sequence; the 50% of the Asia low–London high fib sits near 157.01
RSI(14) pushing past 80 at the session high would mark the move as stretched
Iran headlines remain a source of sudden USD and yen safe-haven swings
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 78 · price 157.345
Higher highs and higher lows off the 156.65 Asian low; Asian range broken higher in London.
London cleared the asia high at 157.22 and Friday's high at 157.08. Dip demand in the dollar in early Europe drove the move, which extends a HL trendline off the 156.65 Asian low. Price is pressing the session high at 157.36 just under the 157.50 cap flagged ahead of the Fed and BoJ, with RSI(14) near 78.
Support: 157.22, 157.08, 156.93
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 asia high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 157.50 cap clears the former range floor
Loss of the 156.93 london low breaks the HL trendline sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri ~03:00 UTC are the main risks; US durables Tue 12:30 UTC could also shift the read
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian high broken, pressing the range cap.
London extended the recovery from the 156.65 Asian low with a run of higher lows off the 156.93 london low. That run cleared the 157.22 asian high and set a 157.32 session high. Price is now inside the 157.20–157.50 range cap that has held USD/JPY ahead of Fed/BoJ week, and RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 157.22, 157.07, 156.93
Resistance: 157.32, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.07 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 156.93 london low
Rejection at the session high or the 157.50 range cap keeps the broader 156.00–157.50 range intact
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled shifts to this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 65 · price 157.257
HH/HL chain; London broke above the Asian range.
Early London cleared the 157.218 Asian high and printed a 157.303 session high. That extends the higher-low chain from the 156.649 Asia low as USD steadies on dip-buying ahead of FOMC. Price is now pressing into the 157.20–157.50 range cap flagged in the macro digest, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 157.218, 157.071, 156.925
Resistance: 157.303, 157.50
What it said to watch
Holding above the 157.218 asian high keeps the breakout intact; slipping back inside the Asian range turns it into a false break
M15 close above the 157.303 session high exposes the 157.50 range cap
Break of the 157.071 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 156.925 london low opens the 50–61.8% fib zone near 156.98–156.90
No scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h; Tue Durable Goods and Wed FOMC are the next catalysts
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 78 · price 157.28
Higher highs and higher lows from the 156.65 Asian low; London breaking the Asian high.
London extended the steady climb from the 156.65 Asian low and broke the 157.22 Asian high, printing a session high at 157.30 as USD dip-buying in early Europe held. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but trend-consistent. Price is now inside the 157.20–157.50 range cap zone that capped last week's bounce.
Support: 157.22, 157.08, 156.93
Resistance: 157.30, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.22 asian high would mark the break as a false break
Rejection at the 157.50 range cap keeps the broader 156.00–157.50 band intact; acceptance above it ends the cap read
Loss of the HL trendline and the 156.93 london low breaks the higher-low chain; 157.08 prior high (Friday) is the first shelf below
RSI(14) above 80 would mark an extreme stretch on this leg
Verbal intervention headlines near 157 can disrupt the move; no scheduled USD or JPY data in the next 8h
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing into the 157.20–157.50 cap · RSI 68 · price 157.28
HH/HL chain from the 156.65 Asian low; Asian high broken in early London.
Monday gapped above Friday's 156.83 close. The Asia-London leg up from 156.65 has broken the 157.22 asian high, with a session high near 157.30 and higher lows at 156.93 and 157.07. Price now sits inside the 157.20–157.50 band that has capped USDJPY, with the yen holding firm on BoJ hike bets and traders sidelined ahead of the Fed and BoJ. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 157.22, 157.07, 156.93
Resistance: 157.30, 157.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.22 asian high would turn the break into a false break
Losing the 157.07 higher low and the rising support line from 156.65 breaks the HH/HL chain. The 156.93 swing low is next, near the fib 50%.
157.50 band top is the area to watch for rejection or break, at the top of the cap zone
Fed decision Wednesday and BoJ decision Friday keep event risk elevated. No scheduled releases in the next 8h.
Higher-low chain from the 156.65 Asian low, second test of the Asian high.
Monday gapped about 21 pips above Friday's 156.83 close. Asia flushed to the 156.65 asian low, then a steady higher-low climb through the early EU low at 156.93 carried price back to 157.20 in the first hour of London, a second test of the 157.22 asian high, with RSI(14) near 67. The 157.20–157.50 cap band flagged in the digest sits directly overhead while the market waits on the Fed and BoJ.
Support: 157.071, 156.925, 156.649
Resistance: 157.218, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.22 asian high opens the 157.50 cap band
Loss of the 157.07 micro hl puts the 156.93 early eu low in play
Break below 156.93 ends the higher-low sequence and points back to the 156.65 asian low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC and Fri BoJ could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, capped at session high · RSI 66 · price 157.155
Higher lows from Asian low, flat top at 157.20.
Higher lows off the 156.649 Asian low lifted USDJPY back to the 157.218 session high. Early London stalled at 157.202, a rejection at the base of the 157.20–157.50 former support band as the market waits on the Fed and BoJ. The 157.07 higher low and the 156.925 swing low, which sits on the 50% fib of the 156.65–157.20 leg, mark the rising structure. RSI(14) is 66 and ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 157.071, 156.925, 156.649
Resistance: 157.218, 157.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.218 session high puts the 157.50 band top in play
A break of the 157.07 higher low and the rising higher-lows line would flatten the intraday chain
Loss of the 156.925 swing low exposes the 156.649 Asian low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed FOMC and Fri BoJ, could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 66 · price 157.12
Higher lows from 156.65 Asian low, capped below 157.22.
The week opened with a 21-pip gap above Friday's 156.83 close. The Asian range ran 156.65–157.22, and higher lows at the 156.65 Asian low and the 156.93 swing low have carried price back to within 2 pips of the Asian high at London open, despite the softer USD tone in the digest. RSI(14) at 66 is firm, not stretched.
Support: 156.93, 156.65
Resistance: 157.22, 157.57
What it said to watch
Close above 157.22 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 157.57 weekly cap
Failure to hold the 156.93 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 156.65 asian low
Second rejection below 157.22 during London session keeps price inside the Asian range
Iran or risk-off headlines could quickly revive yen demand against this rally
Higher lows off the Asian low, price pressing the Asian high.
The weekend gap above Friday's 156.825 close filled early in Asia. A Tokyo-open spike to 157.218 then reversed to the 156.649 Asian low. Higher lows along the rising trendline have since carried price back to 157.19 into London open, retesting the Asian high with RSI(14) near 70, despite the softer-USD tone on eased Iran strike risk.
Support: 157.00, 156.925, 156.649
Resistance: 157.218, 157.57
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.218 Asian high opens the path to the 157.57 cap flagged in the market digest
Rejection at the Asian high followed by a break of the 157.00 round number and the 156.925 swing low would break the higher-low chain
Loss of the 156.649 Asian low would reverse the session structure
HL chain inside Asian range 156.649–157.218, testing 157.10s.
Monday's gap above the 156.825 Fri close ran to a 157.218 Asia high at the Tokyo open, then met yen demand back to the 156.649 Asia low as the JPY bid stalled the bounce. Since then a higher-low chain, last at the 156.925 swing low, has carried price back to retest the 157.132 swing high heading into London open.
Support: 156.925, 156.825, 156.649
Resistance: 157.132, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.132 swing high puts the 157.218 Asia high back in play
Break of the HL trendline and 156.925 swing low turns the recovery into a lower high below the Asia high
Loss of the 156.825 Fri close fills the weekend gap and exposes the 156.649 Asia low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US Durable Goods Tue and FOMC Wed are the next event risks
Higher lows from the 156.65 Asian low, capped below 157.13 inside the Asian range.
Monday gapped about 21 pips above the 156.83 Friday close. The Asian high at 157.22 faded to the 156.65 Asian low as the yen bid on BoJ-hike bets and risk-off flows. A higher-low recovery leg has since carried price back to 157.00, with the early London high at 157.13 capping and the 156.93 swing low holding on the first pullback.
Support: 156.93, 156.83, 156.65
Resistance: 157.13, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.13 London high puts the 157.22 Asian high back in play
Close below the 156.93 swing low and rising support would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 156.83 Friday close (gap fill)
Loss of the 156.65 Asian low would reopen the downside within the session
US yields and Iran headlines remain the swing factor for USD into Tuesday's Durable Goods and Wednesday's FOMC
Asian range 156.65–157.22; lower high at 157.13 with higher lows below.
The Tokyo-open spike to the 157.22 Asian high faded to the 156.65 Asian low. The recovery that followed stalled with a rejection at 157.13, a lower high, and price is now pinned at 157.00 psych above the 156.93 swing low, roughly the 38.2% of the recovery leg. A firm yen on BoJ-hike bets and a soft dollar on falling yields into FOMC are keeping spot capped near 157 into the London open.
Support: 156.93, 156.65
Resistance: 157.13, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.13 lower high, then the 157.22 Asian high, breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the 156.93 swing low and rising support exposes the 156.65 Asian low
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; US yields and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor into London
Asian range 156.65–157.22; higher lows into a lower high.
USDJPY gapped up at the Monday open, ran to an Asian high at 157.22 after Tokyo opened, then sold back to the Asian low at 156.65, in line with the digest's fresh selling around 157.00. The rebound off 156.65 built higher lows along a rising trendline but met rejection at a lower high of 157.13. Price now sits on that trendline near the 50% fib of the rally into the London open.
Support: 156.86, 156.65
Resistance: 157.13, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 156.86 higher low exposes the 61.8% fib near 156.83 and then the 156.65 Asian low
M15 close above the 157.13 lower high and the 157.22 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
London open could set the session range, with no scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h
Wednesday's Fed decision and Friday's BoJ decision remain the main event risk
Asian range 156.65–157.22; higher-low chain capped by a lower high at 157.13.
USD/JPY gapped up at the weekly open and spiked to a 157.22 session high at the Tokyo open. It was then sold to a 156.65 Asian low as the dollar softened on easing yields. The higher-low recovery met a rejection at a 157.13 lower high late in the Asia session, and price is back under the 157.00 round number into London open with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 156.95, 156.86, 156.65
Resistance: 157.00, 157.13, 157.22
What it said to watch
Hold of the 38.2% fib at 156.95 keeps the Asian recovery intact; loss of the 156.86 higher low exposes the 156.65 Asian low
M15 close above the 157.13 lower high and the 157.22 session high would break the Asian range to the upside
No tier-1 USD/JPY data in the next 8h; Tue US Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low · RSI 66 · price 157.132
Higher highs and higher lows since 156.65, pressing the Asian high.
Monday gapped up about 20 pips from Friday's 156.83 close. The Tokyo spike to the 157.22 Asian high met rejection, and price slid to the 156.65 Asian low. A steady chain of higher lows along a rising trendline has since reclaimed the 157.00 round number and recovered past the 78.6% level of the Asian drop fib, now testing the 157.16 prior high ahead of London open despite the softer USD backdrop in the digest.
Support: 157.00, 156.86, 156.649
Resistance: 157.16, 157.218, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.22 Asian high breaks the session range and puts the 157.57 cap in view
Loss of the 157.00 round number and the rising trendline returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Break below the 156.86 swing low cancels the higher-low chain; 156.65 Asian low then exposed
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC keep the 156–157.57 range in focus this week
06:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend, recovering inside the Asian range · RSI 62 · price 157.07
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, pressing the upper third of the session range.
Monday opened with a gap above Friday's close. The Tokyo-open spike to the 157.22 Asian high then faded to the 156.65 Asian low, with BoJ hike bets keeping the yen firm. Late Asia has since built a steady higher-low chain back through the 157.00 round number, RSI(14) near 62, with price pressing the fib 78.6 retrace at 157.10.
Support: 157.00, 156.92, 156.65
Resistance: 157.10, 157.16, 157.22
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 157.10 fib 78.6 keeps the move a retrace of the Asian drop. An M15 close above the 157.16 Friday high and 157.22 Asian high breaks the session range higher.
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.92 swing low.
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 156.92 swing low ends the intraday HH/HL chain. That reopens the 156.65 Asian low.
London open at 08:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range boundaries.
06:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 62 · price 157.059
Higher-low chain from 156.65 retracing the Tokyo drop, testing prior high.
Monday gapped up from Friday's 156.83 close. The Tokyo-open spike to the 157.22 Asian high was rejected down to the 156.65 Asian low as BoJ-hike bets revived yen demand. A steady higher-low chain along the rising trendline has since retraced past 61.8% of that drop and back above the 157.00 round number, pressing Friday's 157.08 prior high late in the Asia session.
Support: 157.00, 156.87, 156.649
Resistance: 157.082, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.22 Asian high breaks the Tokyo rejection and opens the 157.57 cap
Failure to clear the 157.08 prior high keeps the move a retracement of the Tokyo drop
Break of the rising trendline near 156.87 ends the higher-low chain from the Asian low
London open within the hour; Tue Durable Goods and Wed FOMC are the next scheduled USD risk
05:46 UTC
Intraday recovery inside the Asian range · RSI 61 · price 157.008
Higher-low chain off 156.65, testing 61.8% retrace.
Monday's Asia session gapped above the 156.82 Friday close and spiked to the 157.22 Asian high. It was then sold back to the 156.65 Asian low as JPY stayed firm into the Fed/BoJ week. Since then price has built a higher-low chain to 156.92 and is sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the Asian sell-off near 157.00 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 156.92, 156.82, 156.65
Resistance: 157.16, 157.22
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.16 friday high puts the 157.22 asian high back in play
Break of the 156.92 higher low ends the recovery chain; below the 156.82 friday close the weekend gap is filled
Failure to hold the 156.65 asian low would mark a fresh session low
Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) decisions keep intraday moves headline-sensitive this week
05:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, inside Asian range · RSI 62 · price 156.96
Higher lows off 156.65 session low, testing 157.00 from below.
The weekend gap up to 157.03 filled within the first hour. Tokyo open then ran to a 157.22 session high, and supply knocked it back to a 156.65 session low as the yen stayed firm ahead of the Fed and BoJ. A higher-low chain since has lifted price to 156.96, retesting the 157.00 round number, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop.
Support: 156.86, 156.65
Resistance: 157.00, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number / 61.8% fib opens the 157.22 session high
Loss of the 156.86 higher low breaks the recovery sequence and exposes the 156.65 session low
London open in about 1.5h is the first test of the Asian range; FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri keep moves headline-sensitive
05:16 UTC
Intraday recovery after Asia sell-off · RSI 57 · price 156.949
Higher lows off 156.65, testing midpoint of the 157.22–156.65 drop.
Asia session opened with a gap up from Friday's close. The post-Tokyo-open spike to the 157.22 session high was rejected and slid to a 156.65 session low. Price has since built higher lows along a rising line and sits at the 50% retrace near 156.95, with the 61.8% level and the 157.03 gap open just overhead.
Support: 156.86, 156.65, 156.31
Resistance: 157.03, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.03 gap open and the 61.8% retrace opens a retest of the 157.22 session high
Break of the rising line near 156.86 ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 156.65 session low
Loss of the 156.65 session low brings the 156.31 friday low back into view
Fed (Wed) and BoJ decisions this week keep two-way risk elevated, and pre-event positioning may cap follow-through
05:01 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a faded Asia spike · RSI 58 · price 156.949
Higher lows off 156.65, capped below 157.00.
The Asia session gapped up from Friday's 156.83 close. It spiked to a 157.22 session high around the Tokyo open, and that move was rejected to a 156.65 session low as the soft-USD, firm-yen tone reasserted. Since then a chain of higher lows near 156.70 has lifted price back to 156.95, at the 50% retrace of that drop and just under the 157.00 round number.
Support: 156.70, 156.649
Resistance: 157.00, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number (61.8% retrace) reopens the 157.22 session high
Break of the rising lows trendline and 156.70 higher low puts the 156.65 session low back in play
London open in ~2h typically resets the Asian range; Fed/BoJ week keeps two-way headline risk
Higher-low chain off 156.65 inside the 156.65–157.22 Asian range.
Asia gapped up to 157.03 and was rejected at a 157.22 asia high, filling the weekend gap at 156.83 and dropping to a 156.65 asia low, with soft USD and firm JPY in the backdrop. Price has since built higher lows back to the 50% retrace of the Asia drop near 156.93. The 157.00 round number sits just above. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 156.83, 156.65, 156.31
Resistance: 157.00, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number (61.8% of the Asia drop) reopens the 157.22 asia high
Break of the rising trendline and the 156.83 gap fill exposes the 156.65 asia low
Failure to hold the 156.65 asia low opens Friday's 156.31 friday low
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the 156.65–157.22 Asian range
No tier-1 data in the next 8h. US Durables Tue and the Fed/BoJ decisions later this week could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday down-leg from 157.22, now retracing · RSI 53 · price 156.878
Tokyo range 156.65–157.22; higher lows off session low.
The early-Tokyo push to the 157.22 session high was rejected, and the pair fell to a 156.65 session low as softer US yields kept supply capping below 157.00. Price has since built higher lows back to 156.88. It now sits at the 38.2% level of the 157.22–156.65 drop fib, just under the 156.90 local high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price flat on its EMAs.
Support: 156.70, 156.65, 156.31
Resistance: 156.90, 157.00, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.90 local high opens the 157.00 psych level, which coincides with the 61.8% of the drop fib
Loss of the 156.70 higher low reopens the 156.65 session low; below that sits the Friday low at 156.31
Another rejection near the 157.22 session high keeps the Asian range intact into London open
No scheduled data in the next 8h; positioning ahead of Wed FOMC and Thu BoJ keeps ranges contained
04:16 UTC
Intraday recovery inside the Asian range · RSI 53 · price 156.865
Higher lows off 156.65 after rejection at 157.22.
Mid-Asia session: after a small weekend gap higher, the Tokyo-open pop to the 157.22 Asia high met fresh sellers. The 57-pip slide to the 156.65 Asia low has since given way to a higher-low recovery back to the 38.2% retrace near 156.87, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and price just above EMA20. The pattern fits the digest's read of USD/JPY capped below 157.00 as traders square up before the Fed and BoJ.
Support: 156.718, 156.649, 156.309
Resistance: 156.934, 156.991, 157.218
What it said to watch
Close above the 50% fib at 156.93 extends the recovery toward the 61.8% / 157 cap at 156.99
Loss of the 156.72 higher low and the 156.65 Asia low reopens the 156.31 Friday low
Close above the 157.22 Asia high invalidates the rejection read; London open may reset the Asian range
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) remain the week's dominant risk for this read
04:01 UTC
Intraday down after Asia rejection, momentum flattening · RSI 45 · price 156.783
Lower highs from 157.22, compressing above 156.65 Asian low.
The Monday gap higher filled early. The Tokyo-open push then poked above Friday's 157.16 high to a 157.22 session high and reversed, a false break that ran to the 156.65 Asian low as fresh sellers met the uptick. Price is now compressing in a 156.65–156.81 band just under the 156.83 Friday close, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 45 as JPY stays firm on BoJ hike bets.
Support: 156.65, 156.31
Resistance: 156.83, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.65 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 156.31 Friday low
Recovery above the 156.83 Friday close brings the 156.87–156.93 fib 38.2–50% retracement zone into play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; London open is the next test of the Asian range edges ahead of Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's FOMC
Lower highs from 157.22 after a false break; tight 156.65–156.81 coil.
The Tokyo open briefly lifted the pair above Friday's 157.16 high to a 157.22 session high. The push failed as a false break, and the 157.22–156.65 drop filled the weekend gap and set a 156.65 session low, in line with the fresh selling at the Monday open as lower US yields cap USD. Price is now coiling between the session low and the 156.81 lower high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 156.649, 156.309
Resistance: 156.811, 157.00, 157.218
What it said to watch
A close above the 156.81 lower high and the 156.83 Friday close breaks the descending highs sequence and puts the 156.87 fib 38.2% and the 157.00 round number in play.
A break of the 156.65 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.31 Friday low.
A reclaim of the 157.22 session high would negate the false-break read.
A rebound in US Treasury yields during London hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's FOMC.
03:31 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, minor bounce · RSI 47 · price 156.772
Lower highs after false break of Friday high; bounce off session low.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 20 pips higher. The Tokyo-open rally ran through Friday's 157.16 high to a 157.22 session high, then reversed sharply in a false break as fresh selling met the bounce amid pre-Fed/BoJ caution. Price has since printed a 156.65 session low and is lifting toward the 156.81 bounce high, still below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 156.65, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.81, 157.00, 157.22
What it said to watch
Bounce stalling at the 156.81 bounce high or the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off (~156.87) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close above the 157.00 round number (61.8% fib) neutralises the sell-off read; the 157.22 session high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 156.65 session low exposes the 156.55 swing low and the 156.31 friday low
Tue US Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence and Wed FOMC loom; pre-event caution is compressing ranges
03:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Tokyo-open high · RSI 41 · price 156.733
Lower highs and lower lows since 157.22, weekend gap filled.
The Asia session gapped higher, and the Tokyo-open push to the 157.22 session high was sold, in line with the firm-yen, soft-yields read. Price has carved lower highs back through the 156.82 Fri close, filling the gap. It is now sitting just above the 156.65 session low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 156.649, 156.547, 156.309
Resistance: 156.825, 157.00, 157.218
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the lower-high line and the 156.82 Fri close breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 156.87 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop and the 157.00 round number would put the 157.22 session high back in focus
Failure to hold the 156.65 session low exposes the 156.55 Fri swing, then the 156.31 Fri low
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; a rebound in US Treasury yields into London open would challenge the capped-bounce read
03:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Tokyo rejection · RSI 37 · price 156.672
Lower highs from 157.22 session high, fresh session low at 156.65.
The Monday gap-up open has been faded. Mid-Asia session, the Tokyo-open push to a 157.22 session high was rejected, and price has since stepped down in lower highs to a 156.65 session low, below Friday's close. That fits the firm-yen, softer-yields read. RSI(14) sits at 37, not stretched, with the 156.55 swing low next below and the 156.90 breakdown level capping above.
Support: 156.65, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.90, 157.22
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.65 session low and then 156.55 swing low opens Friday low at 156.31
M15 close back above 156.90 breakdown level breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the Tokyo drop
London open in ~4h may extend or reject the Asian range low
Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) week keeps two-way risk elevated; the calendar is quiet in the next 8h
02:46 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 156.697
Asia session false break above 157.00 reversed; testing session low.
Monday's Asia session gapped up from the 156.83 friday close and pushed through the 157.00 round number to a 157.22 session high. Supply met the open there and the reversal unwound the gap, in line with softer US yields and a firm yen. Price now sits on the 156.67 session low and the 50% level of the friday rally fib (156.31–157.08), with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 156.67, 156.55, 156.31
Resistance: 156.83, 157.00, 157.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.67 session low exposes the 156.55 friday swing, then the 156.31 friday low
Recovery back above the 156.83 friday close would neutralise the false-break read and bring the 157.00 round number into view
Lower highs since the 157.22 session high stay intact unless price reclaims 157.00
London open around 07:00 UTC may extend or reverse the Asian range
US yield moves ahead of Wednesday's FOMC remain the driver behind any extension
02:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed Asia push higher · RSI 39 · price 156.712
Lower highs and lower lows from the 157.218 session high; weekend gap filled.
Monday's Asia session gapped up to the 157.03 gap open and pushed above Friday's high to a 157.218 session high. That rejection filled the gap and printed lower highs down to a 156.68 session low, in line with the soft-USD, lower-yield tone. Price now sits near the 50% level of Friday's NY rebound fib (156.309 Friday low to 157.08), with RSI(14) at 39 and below both EMAs.
Support: 156.68, 156.547, 156.309
Resistance: 156.825, 157.03, 157.218
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.68 session low exposes the 156.547 swing low and the 61.8% level of the Friday rebound fib near 156.60
A reclaim of the 156.825 Friday close and the lower-highs line would negate the gap-fill read and put the 157.03 gap open back in play
A break of the 156.309 Friday low would open the 156.00–156.08 floor flagged in the digest
London open in roughly 4h is the next test of the Asia session range, with FOMC on Wednesday and the BoJ on Friday as the larger event risks this week
02:16 UTC
Intraday down after Asia reversal · RSI 45 · price 156.773
Lower highs off the Asia high, testing session low.
The weekend gap up to 157.03 has fully filled. The Tokyo-open push above the friday high to an asia high of 157.218 failed, and a 32-pip drop has since printed lower highs at 156.91 and 156.89, with price pressing the 156.736 session low as softer US yields weigh. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 156.736, 156.702, 156.309
Resistance: 157.034, 157.159, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.736 session low exposes the Friday ny swing low at 156.702, then the 156.309 friday low
Reclaim of the 157.034 gap open would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Hold back above the 157.159 friday high would turn the asia high rejection into a false break of that rejection
No scheduled data before London open; US Treasury yields and any yen safe-haven headlines are the near-term drivers
02:01 UTC
Intraday range, slipping below EMAs after Asia rejection · RSI 45 · price 156.822
Monday gap filled; Asia session high rejected, price back near Friday close inside Friday's 156.31–157.16 range.
Monday opened about 21 pips above Friday's 156.825 close, and that gap filled early. The Tokyo open then ran to a 157.218 session high, a false break of Friday's 157.159 high that was rejected back to a 156.736 session low. Price now sits below both EMAs near the 50% fib of the Friday low–session high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 as yen tone stays firm.
Support: 156.736, 156.547, 156.309
Resistance: 157.00, 157.159, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.736 session low exposes Friday's 156.55 London low (fri ldn low)
Recovery back above 157.00 psych reopens the 157.159 fri high and the 157.218 session high
Loss of the 156.309 fri low breaks the 24h range floor toward the 156.08 multi-week low
No scheduled releases before London; Mideast headlines and yields remain the swing factor for haven yen into FOMC/BoJ week
01:46 UTC
Two-way intraday, rejected from session high · RSI 49 · price 156.886
Asian range 156.74–157.22 after a failed push through Friday's high; weekend gap filled.
The 157.03 gap open faded early in the Asia session. The Tokyo-open spike cleared the 157.16 friday high to a 157.22 session high, then reversed to a 156.74 session low, filling the gap to the 156.83 friday close. Price is back near 156.89, at the 38.2% fib of the friday low to session high leg and just under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 156.825, 156.736, 156.309
Resistance: 157.034, 157.159, 157.218
What it said to watch
A break of the 156.74 session low ends the Asian range read and exposes the 61.8% fib near 156.66, then the 156.31 friday low
Recovery above the 157.03 gap open puts the 157.16 friday high back in play; acceptance above the 157.22 session high negates the false break
No data until Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence ahead of Wed FOMC; Iran and China headlines are the near-term swing factor in thin Asia flow
01:31 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from session high · RSI 43 · price 156.855
Asian range 156.785–157.218; false break above Friday high, sharp rejection.
Monday opened with a ~21-pip gap above Friday's 156.825 close, filled in thin early trade as price dipped to the 156.785 session low on weekend Iran and China headlines. Tokyo open lifted price through the 157.159 Friday high to a 157.218 session high, but the move failed and a 22-pip bar erased it. Price at 156.855 sits below EMA20/50 with over 78.6% of the Tokyo leg retraced, RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 156.825, 156.785, 156.309
Resistance: 157.00, 157.159, 157.218
What it said to watch
M15 close below 156.785 session low breaks the Asian range lower; Friday low 156.309 is the next reference
Reclaim of the 157.00 psych level and Friday high 157.159 would neutralise the rejection; session high 157.218 caps the range
Holding the Friday close at 156.825 keeps price inside the Asian range
US-Iran or China countermeasure headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling · RSI 57 · price 157.096
Gap filled, then a Tokyo-open push to 157.22 that has slipped back under Friday's high.
Monday opened 21 pips above Friday's 156.83 close and filled the gap early in the Asia session, printing a session low at 156.79. The Tokyo open then lifted price through Friday's 157.16 prior high to a 157.22 session high, but the pair has slipped back to 157.10 with RSI(14) near 57. Thin weekend headlines on Iran and China leave only a mild haven floor under USD.
Support: 157.00, 156.79
Resistance: 157.16, 157.22, 157.57
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 157.16 prior high turns the push to the 157.22 session high into a false break
Loss of the 157.00 round number, also the 50% fib of the Tokyo leg, exposes the 156.79 session low
An M15 close above the 157.22 session high puts the 157.57 cap in view
US-Iran or China countermeasure headlines in thin Asia flow could shift this read
00:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off session low, testing prior high · RSI 61 · price 157.134
Monday gap-up, double bottom at session low, pressing Friday high.
Monday's Asia session opened 21 pips above Friday's 156.83 close. A double bottom at the 156.79 session low launched a push through the 157.00 round number and the descending Friday highs line, and price is now testing the 157.16 Friday high with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched. Weekend Iran headlines (no strike 'today', deal still on the table) left the haven premium in place but added no fresh driver.
Support: 157.00, 156.79
Resistance: 157.16, 157.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.16 Friday high opens the path toward the 157.57 range cap
Slip back below the 157.00 round number returns price to the session range above the 156.79 session low
Break of the 156.79 session low voids the double bottom and fills more of the gap
Iran escalation or deal headlines can swing haven flows outside data hours
Asia session range 156.79–157.08 after weekend gap filled; higher low off Friday's NY rally.
Early Monday Asia session opened about 21 pips above Friday's 156.83 close after weekend Iran headlines trimmed strike risk. The gap filled fast. Twin lows at 156.79, the 38.2% fib of Friday's NY rally, held and a spike tagged 157.08, matching Friday's prior high. Price now sits just under the 157.02 neckline of a small double bottom, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 156.79, 156.55
Resistance: 157.08, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.08 prior high clears the neckline and exposes the 157.16 friday high
Failure to hold the 156.79 twin lows negates the double bottom and puts the 156.55 london low back in view
Thin Asia session liquidity means fresh Iran headlines can break the session range abruptly
Weekend gap filled, range 156.79–157.07 at Tokyo open.
Monday's Asia open gapped up to 157.03, but the gap fill completed at 156.79, the 38.2% fib of Friday's NY rally from 156.31. Price is now chopping in a 156.79–157.07 range as Tokyo opens, with RSI(14) neutral near 51. Friday's PMI-driven USD bid lifted the pair off 156.31, but the monday high at 157.07 is capping just under the friday high at 157.16.
Support: 156.79, 156.70, 156.60
Resistance: 157.07, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.79 gap fill exposes the 156.70 swing low and the 61.8% fib at 156.60
Close above the 157.07 monday high breaks the range and puts the 157.16 friday high in play
No US or Japan data in the next 8h. Tokyo session flows dominate in thin pre-FOMC/BoJ conditions
Lower high under the gap high, price pressing the session low.
The Monday Asia session gapped roughly 21 pips higher to 157.03 but has fully filled the gap back to Friday's 156.825 close. Supply capped at the 157.068 gap high and again at a 157.022 lower high. The session low at 156.785 sits on the 38.2% of Friday's 156.31–157.08 rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 156.785, 156.70
Resistance: 157.022, 157.068, 157.159
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.785 session low exposes the 156.70 swing low, which is also the 50% of the Friday rally fib
A reclaim of the 157.022 lower high and the 157.068 gap high reopens the 157.159 friday high
Tokyo open liquidity could expand the thin Sunday-evening range; the calendar is clear for the next 8h, with Wed FOMC and Fri BoJ framing the week