21:03 UTC
Downtrend since late July, range-bound since late September · RSI 37 · price 156.822
Lower highs from 163.99; month-long 156.1–159.0 range, price at range floor.
Highs have stepped lower since the late-July collapse from 163.99, from the 160.39 sep high to 159.03 and then 158.95, while the 152.89 sep low marks the base of the move. For roughly four weeks price has been held inside a 156.1–159.0 range around the 38.2–50% retrace of the jul-sep fib, with a rejection below the range top on Oct 20. Last week's risk-off yen buying and softer US yields dragged price back to the 156.08 oct low, now below a flattening ema50 near 157.60, with RSI in the high 30s.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 157.60, 158.95, 160.39
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 156.08 oct low breaks the range floor and exposes the 155.23 aug low
- Recovery back above the ema50 near 157.60 returns price to the middle of the range
- A close above the 158.95 range top and the lower highs line would end the sequence of lower highs, with the 160.39 sep high next
- Fed decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC: patient guidance that bleeds December hike odds could pressure the range floor, a hawkish hold could lift price back into the range
- BoJ decision and Outlook Report Friday 03:00 UTC, after Thursday's Tokyo CPI, could shift the read on any December hike signal