Higher low at 156.65, tight range under Monday high.
USD/JPY put in a higher low at 156.65 in Monday's Asia session, above Friday's 156.08 low. London and the NY open then drove a near 100-pip lift through the 157.16 Friday high to a 157.64 Monday high, as pre-FOMC USD short-covering and a soft yen fed the move. Price is now compressing just above the 61.8% retracement of last week's 158.34–156.08 decline, inside the 157.20–157.50 former-support band. It holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR contracting, and the NY-session pullback low at 157.37 has held so far.
Support: 157.37, 157.16, 157.03
Resistance: 157.64, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 Monday high clears the decline fib cap and opens the path toward the 158.34 Wed high
Loss of the 157.37 pullback low and then the 157.16 Friday high would put the 157.03 weekly open and the higher lows line back in play
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, plus Friday's BoJ, could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Rebound within a broader decline, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 60 · price 157.491
Higher lows since Friday's 156.08 low, now pressing the 157.20–157.50 former support zone.
The week's dominant move was the decline from the 158.39 swing high, with risk-off yen demand extending it to Friday's 156.08 low. Monday's gap higher and steady climb, on risk-on flows and USD short-covering into the Fed, has carried price back to the 61.8% retracement of that decline near 157.50, inside the 157.20–157.50 former support zone, with the monday high at 157.64. Price holds above the ema20 (~157.37) and EMA50 on rising support, but RSI(14) has eased toward 60 as bar ranges compress below the high.
Support: 157.37, 157.23, 156.65
Resistance: 157.64, 157.84, 158.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 monday high clears the 61.8% level and opens the 157.84 prior floor, then the 158.39 swing high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 157.37 and the fib 50% at 157.23 would put the monday low at 156.65 back in focus
A break of rising support from the 156.31/156.65 higher lows invalidates the rebound read
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence could set the pre-Fed tone
Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision could materially shift this read; patient guidance risks reversing Monday's USD bounce
21:03 UTC
Recovery leg from Friday's low, momentum stalling · RSI 63 · price 157.485
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low, capped at the 61.8% fib / 157.50-157.64 band.
USDJPY gapped above Friday's close to a 157.03 weekly open. After a dip to the 156.65 Monday low in the Asia session, it built steady higher lows through London and into NY as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed and JPY traded as the weakest major. The rally stalled at a 157.64 Monday high during NY hours, right at the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday-to-Friday slide and inside the old 157.20-157.57 support band. Price now sits on the rising trendline with EMA(20) at 157.31 underneath and RSI(14) near 63, short of overbought.
Support: 157.31, 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64, 158.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 Monday high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path toward the 158.39 Wed high
Break of the rising trendline and a close below ema20 at 157.31 would turn the recovery into consolidation, with the weekly open at 157.03 next
Failure to hold the 156.65 Monday low puts Friday's 156.08 low back in play
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC), then the Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision, could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Recovery off Friday low, testing prior breakdown zone · RSI 63 · price 157.525
Higher lows since Friday; price at 61.8% of the Wed–Fri drop.
USD/JPY has carved higher lows since Friday's 156.08 Asia-session low. Monday's climb from the 156.65 Asian low built through London and extended into the NY session as the dollar firmed ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday drop, inside the old 157.20–157.50 support band, where the Monday high at 157.64 capped the move; the 27-pip pullback held at 157.37 above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing from ~66 to ~63.
Support: 157.37, 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.64, 157.89, 158.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 monday high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 78.6% fib at 157.89, then the thu high at 158.25
Loss of the 157.37 pullback low and EMA(20) puts the weekly open at 157.03 back in focus
A break of the higher-low trendline near 157.09 and then the 156.65 monday low would undo the recovery structure
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) and the BoJ (Fri 03:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low; recovery testing the 61.8% retrace of last week's drop.
USD/JPY gapped up to a 157.03 weekly open. After an Asia-session dip to the 156.65 Monday low, it climbed through London and NY as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed, printing a 157.64 Monday high. The recovery retraces just past the 61.8% of last week's 158.39 week high to 156.08 drop and sits back inside the old 157.20–157.50 support band. Price holds above EMA(20) and the Monday trend line, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s.
Support: 157.24, 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.64, 158.00, 158.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 Monday high opens the path to the 158.00 round number and the 158.39 week high
Break of the Monday trend line near 157.24 and a return below the 157.03 weekly open would undercut the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 156.65 Monday low exposes the 156.08 Friday low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC decision could materially shift this read
Fri 03:00 UTC BoJ decision, preceded by Tokyo CPI, adds cross-risk late in the week
Higher low off 156.08; capped near 61.8% retracement.
After last week's slide from 158.39 to the 156.08 week low, Monday's recovery started at the 156.65 monday low in the Asian session. It then ran through London and NY as the dollar bounced on short-covering ahead of the Fed, clearing the Thu–Fri range top near 157.16. Supply showed up at 157.64, the monday high, just above the 61.8% fib of the slide, and the rejection has pulled price back to 157.42. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) has eased from the high 60s, and the 50% fib at 157.23 sits just below as the first shelf.
Support: 157.23, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.64, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 50% fib at 157.23 returns price to the Thu–Fri range and weakens the rebound read
Close above the 157.64 monday high clears the 61.8% fib cap and opens the path toward the 158.34 swing high
Break of the higher-low line and the 156.65 monday low would put the 156.08 week low back in focus
Tue 12:30 UTC durable goods, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and the BoJ on Fri 03:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 156.08; lower-highs line broken Monday.
The slide from 158.39 to the 156.08 low in Friday's Asian session, driven by risk-off and lower UST yields, has given way to a run of higher lows at 156.31 and 156.65. During Monday's London and NY sessions, USD short-covering ahead of the Fed lifted price through the lower-highs line and the 157.03 weekly open. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the week's drop near 157.50, just under the 157.64 Monday high, with EMA(20) rising beneath near 157.25 and RSI(14) around 64.
Support: 157.25, 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 Monday high clears the 157.20–157.50 cap and exposes the 158.34 lower high from Oct 21
Rejection at the 61.8% fib followed by a close back below the ema20 and the 157.03 weekly open returns price to the prior range
Loss of the 156.65 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens 156.08
Tue 12:30 UTC durable goods, then Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC guidance, could materially shift this read
Friday's BoJ decision and Thursday's Tokyo CPI remain two-way risk for the week's structure
Lower-high sequence from 158.34 broken; higher lows since Friday.
After last week's decline from the 158.34 swing high to the 156.08 low, Monday has built a third higher low at 156.65 in Asia and climbed steadily through London and into NY above the weekly open at 157.03. The rally has cleared the 157.20–157.50 former support band and the 61.8% fib of that decline, as USD shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's Fed. The session high at 157.64 sits just under the 157.84 prior low from Tuesday, with price well above the ema20 and RSI(14) at 71 after an unbroken run of higher hourly lows.
Support: 157.48, 157.24, 157.03
Resistance: 157.64, 157.84, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 61.8% fib at 157.48 puts the 157.20–157.50 band back in question
Loss of the ema20 near 157.24 and the higher lows trendline returns the read to Friday's 156.30–157.15 range
Clearance of the 157.64 session high exposes the 157.84 prior low, then the 158.34 swing high
Overbought RSI(14) at 71 near the session high leaves room for a pullback toward the weekly open at 157.03
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods, then Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC, is the second event risk this week
Higher lows since Monday Asia, post-plunge range broken to the upside.
USDJPY has rebuilt from Friday's Asia-session low at 156.08. London cleared the 157.16–157.36 post-plunge range and NY extended it, as the dollar firmed on short-covering ahead of Wednesday's Fed. Monday's higher lows off the 156.65 monday low are intact, with price above both the ema20 (~157.20) and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 66. The advance is now pressing the 157.50–157.58 zone, where the 61.8% retracement of the week's 158.39–156.08 decline meets the day high and the old range floor.
Support: 157.20, 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.58, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 157.58 day high clears the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline and opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.34 wed high
Break of the Monday higher-lows trendline and a close back below the ema20 at 157.20 returns focus to the weekly open at 157.03
Loss of the 156.65 monday low would negate Monday's recovery structure
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the Fed Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Rising lows from 156.08 into 157.50 cap; prior range broken lower Thursday.
Thursday's Asia-session break below the 157.84 range floor, driven by risk-off yen buying, extended to 156.08 by Friday. Since then rising lows at 156.31 and the 156.65 Monday low, plus a London-session push on short-covering into the Fed, lifted price above EMA(20) and the 157.03 weekly open. Price is now retesting 157.50, the 61.8% fib of the Wed–Fri drop and the former support band, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 157.03, 156.65
Resistance: 157.50, 157.84, 158.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.50 61.8% fib puts the 157.84 range floor back in play; acceptance inside that range exposes the 158.39 range top
Failure at 157.50 and a close back below EMA(20) and the weekly open at 157.03 shift focus to the rising lows line and the 156.65 Monday low
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Wed FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC behind it
Higher lows since Friday, retesting broken support from below.
USD/JPY lost the 158.00–158.30 range floor in Thursday's Asia-to-London trade and slid to a 156.08 week low as risk-off drove yen demand. Monday's London session lifted price from the 156.65 monday low through the weekly open at 157.03 and into the 157.20–157.50 broken support zone. That zone holds the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 158.39–156.08 drop, and the 157.40 session high is the first test. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 59, and higher lows since Friday keep the rising trendline intact.
Support: 157.03, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.40, 157.50, 157.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.50 fib 61.8% level invalidates the retest-from-below read and exposes the 157.89 breakdown point
Rejection at the 157.40 session high, followed by a return below the 157.03 weekly open, keeps the downtrend structure intact
A break of the 156.65 monday low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 156.08 week low back in focus
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC precede the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, which could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Recovery leg inside last week's decline, momentum improving · RSI 60 · price 157.279
Higher lows from the 156.08 low, pressing the 157.20–157.50 cap.
Last week's slide from 158.39 to 156.08 came mostly in Thursday's Asia and London sessions on risk-off yen demand and softer US yields. Since Friday's low the H1 has printed higher lows at 156.31 and the 156.65 Monday low. Price has reclaimed the weekly open at 157.03 and holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 60. It is now testing the 50% fib at 157.23, just under the 157.36 swing high, while the 61.8% fib at 157.50 lines up with the former range floor.
Support: 157.03, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.36, 157.50, 158.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.50 61.8% fib clears the former range floor and opens the path toward the 158.39 last wk high
Rejection at the 157.36 swing high, followed by a loss of the weekly open at 157.03, would stall the recovery leg
A break of the 156.65 monday low ends the higher-low sequence and brings the 156.08 prior wk low back into view
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's 156.08 low, testing the 50% retrace.
Thursday's Asia-into-London breakdown from the 157.84–158.34 range came on risk-off yen buying and falling UST yields. It ran to the 156.08 swing low early in Friday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at 156.31 and the 156.65 Monday low, and the London open lifted price above the week open and both EMAs into the 157.21 50% retrace of the Thursday–Friday drop, with RSI(14) near 61. Price now sits just under the 157.36 thu high and the 61.8% fib at 157.48, the top of the former 157.20–157.50 support band.
Support: 157.034, 156.649
Resistance: 157.355, 157.476
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 157.48 clears the 157.20–157.50 band and the thu high; rejection there leaves a lower high in the week's downtrend
Loss of the 157.03 week open, then the 156.65 monday low, breaks the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 156.08 swing low
FOMC on Wed 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance is the main USD swing factor for this structure
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are the cross-risk for a test of 156.00
Higher lows into a flat 157.16–157.22 cap after Thursday's impulse lower.
Thursday's Asia-led selloff from 158.34 extended to the 156.08 week low in Friday's Asia session, as risk-off flows drove yen buying. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at 156.31 and 156.65. The range top at 157.16–157.22 has capped three attempts, including Monday's Asian uptick, and coincides with the 50% retracement of that leg. Price is holding just above the 157.03 weekly open and EMA(20), with EMA(50) flattening near 157.00 and RSI(14) around 56, no longer pressing lower.
Support: 157.03, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.22, 157.35, 157.59
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.22 range top and the 157.35 lower high from Thursday's NY bounce breaks the compression and exposes the 157.59 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 157.03 weekly open, then the 156.65 higher low, reopens the 156.08 week low
Tue durable goods and consumer confidence, then the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 156.08 week low, capped below thu high.
The week's dominant move came through Thursday's Asia-London sessions, a slide from 158.34 that extended to the 156.08 week low in Friday's Asia session on hot Japan CPI and safe-haven yen demand. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at 156.31 and the 156.79 monday low. Monday's Asia gap-up stalled at the 157.22 monday high, near the 50% retracement of the drop, with price above EMA(20) but pressed against EMA(50) near 157.09 and RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 156.79, 156.08
Resistance: 157.22, 157.36, 157.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.36 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.48 61.8% fib in play
Failure to hold the 156.79 monday low exposes the higher-lows trendline and the 156.08 week low
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence set the tone ahead of Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC decision, which could materially shift this read