Higher lows since Monday's Asia low, pressing the week high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's 157.03 weekly open, carving higher lows along a rising trendline from the 156.65 Asia-session low as the yen softened on better risk sentiment and a firm dollar into the Fed. Price now sits at the 157.98 week high, above the 157.80 range top flagged in the digest. EMA(20) has caught each pullback and RSI(14) sits near 63, while Tuesday's hourly ranges have compressed into the late NY session.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 157.98, 158.25
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.80 range top returns price to the prior range and brings the rising trendline into play
Loss of the 157.58 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue impulse near 157.47 and then the 157.03 weekly open
A sustained break of the 157.98 week high opens last Thursday's 158.25 prior high
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, retracing Thu-Fri slide.
The Tokyo-led slide from the 158.25 Thu high to 156.08 on Friday has been retraced about 87% since the week opened with a small gap higher. A steady sequence of higher lows on a rising trendline has carried price through the 157.88 prior high to the 157.97 Tuesday high, with most of the gains made in Asia and London hours. Hourly ranges have compressed into the NY close just under the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) holding mid-60s rather than pushing overbought, as a firm USD into FOMC and a softer yen on better risk sentiment drive the move.
Support: 157.88, 157.58, 157.37
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00, 158.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number opens the path back to the 158.25 Thu high
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.88 prior high would mark a stall back into a range
Failure to hold the 157.58 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.37 pullback low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Outlook Report Fri ~03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 61 · price 157.944
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low, compressing under 157.97.
USDJPY turned up from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, reclaiming the 157.03 weekly open in London. It extended through Monday's and Tuesday's NY sessions as the yen softened on improved risk sentiment and resilient US data, including the Durable Goods beat. Pullbacks have held above a rising higher-lows trendline and stayed near the ema20 (~157.82), with Tuesday's dips at 157.55–157.70 each finding demand. Late NY ranges have compressed to roughly 5–10 pips just under the 157.97 week high, and RSI(14) is sitting near 61 rather than pushing into overbought territory.
Support: 157.82, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.97, 158.25
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read
Hourly closes back below the ema20 and the 157.80 area would signal the advance stalling into a range
A close below the tue low at 157.42 breaks the higher-lows trendline and the week's higher-low sequence
A close above the 157.97 week high opens the path to Thursday's prior high at 158.25
BoJ decision and Ueda's presser Fri Oct 30 ~03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC, are the yen-side risk
38.2% retracement of the Monday-low leg sits near 157.47, close to the tue low
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 61 · price 157.921
Higher lows since Monday's low, holding above the 157.80 breakout level.
Since Monday's 156.649 low, USDJPY has printed a steady sequence of higher lows through London and NY hours. A firmer USD into FOMC and fading haven demand for JPY carried price through the 157.80 breakout level to a 157.956 week high in NY today. Pullbacks are holding at EMA(20) and the rising trendline, but each new high is coming in smaller increments and RSI(14) is flattening near 60. Resistance sits at the 158.00 round number and Thursday's 158.249 prior high.
Support: 157.80, 157.584, 157.034
Resistance: 157.956, 158.00, 158.249
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.80 breakout lvl, and through the rising trendline, would undercut the breakout read
Failure to hold the 157.584 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 157.30–157.45 fib zone
H1 close above the 157.956 week high and the 158.00 round number opens the 158.249 prior high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC; a balanced, non-hawkish statement could unwind this week's USD gains
BoJ Fri and Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the next JPY-side catalysts; MoF rhetoric is a tail risk on any approach to 160
A slide back toward the 157.034 weekly open would erase most of this week's advance
Higher lows since Monday Asia low, pressing week high.
USDJPY has recovered most of last week's haven-driven slide. After a small gap above the 157.03 weekly open and a Monday Asia-session dip to 156.65, it has built a run of higher lows as easing AI worries and a firmer USD into FOMC drained yen demand. Tuesday extended to a 157.96 week high during NY hours, with intraday pullbacks finding EMA(20) near 157.76, just under the 157.80 pivot flagged in the yen digest. Tuesday's range has compressed to about 40 pips, and RSI(14) at 64 is below Monday's reading on a higher price, a bearish divergence beneath the 158.00 round number and the 158.25 prior high.
Support: 157.76, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 157.96, 158.00, 158.25
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.58 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 157.46
Sustained trade above the 158.00 round number opens the path to the 158.25 prior high
Repeated hourly closes below EMA(20) at 157.76 would mark the first loss of the pullback rhythm since Monday
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a neutral-sounding Fed is the lopsided risk given USD positioning
Loss of the 157.03 weekly open would unwind Monday's rally
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, steady but shallow · RSI 66 · price 157.939
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday, holding above 157.80.
Higher lows since Friday's Asia-session low at 156.08 have carried the pair back above the 157.03 weekly open and through the 157.80 range top. London and NY hours did most of the lifting on Monday as the yen lost haven demand and the USD firmed into the FOMC. Price is pressing the 157.95 week high, beyond the 78.6% retracement of last week's drop from the 158.34 Oct 21 high. Tuesday's pullback held the 157.58 Tue low above a rising EMA(20), with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and not yet stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 157.95, 158.34
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 157.80 range top would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.58 Tue low breaks the higher-lows trendline from Monday
A close above the 157.95 week high opens the path to the 158.34 Oct 21 high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 156.65; testing 157.80 breakout lvl.
USD/JPY has retraced about 80% of last Thursday–Friday's yen-driven drop from the 158.34 prior high to 156.08, carving higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, with the NY session driving the main legs. Firm US data today (durables 1.8% vs 0.6%, CB confidence 91.7) lifted the pair to a 157.92 session high. Dips have since held just above the 157.80 breakout lvl, with price at the 78.6% retracement, above EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 62 rather than stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.584, 157.034
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00, 158.342
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 157.80 breakout lvl return price to the 156.90–157.80 range read
A break of the 157.58 higher low and the rising higher-lows trendline would end Tuesday's sequence, exposing the 157.03 weekly open
A close above the 157.92 session high and the 158.00 round number opens the path to the 158.34 prior high
Wednesday's FOMC (18:00 UTC) and Friday's BoJ decision with Ueda's December guidance could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could interrupt the advance near the highs
Higher lows since Monday, compressing under 157.92.
USD/JPY has retraced about 78.6% of last Thursday–Friday's Asia-session slide from 158.34 to the 156.08 low. Higher lows have built steadily since Monday's open, through London and NY hours, as firm US data and fading haven demand weighed on the yen. Tuesday's advance stalled at 157.92, the tuesday high, with price holding above the ema20 and the higher-low trendline, and the swing low at 157.58 forming the nearest structural floor.
Support: 157.584, 157.034
Resistance: 157.924, 158.00, 158.342
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.92 tuesday high and the 158.00 round number extends the recovery toward the 158.34 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.58 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the Monday–Tuesday sequence
Loss of the 157.03 weekly open would return price to last week's 156.08–157.80 range
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Ueda guidance Fri ~03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC, are the yen-side risk
Higher lows since Monday, capped at 157.80–157.92.
USDJPY has retraced most of last Thursday's Tokyo-led slide to 156.08. It has built higher lows from Monday's Asia low at 156.65, holding above the weekly open, as a firm USD into FOMC and fading haven demand weigh on the yen. Monday's London and NY sessions carried the bulk of the move. Today's push to a week high at 157.92 met a rejection into the NY open and slipped back under the 157.80 range top. Price sits only just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 55, while the rising lows line near 157.58 still holds and fib 38.2 sits at 157.42.
Support: 157.58, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.80, 157.92, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.92 week high reopens the 158.34 prior high from last Wednesday
Break of the rising lows near 157.58 exposes fib 38.2 at 157.42 and the weekly open at 157.03
Repeated failure at the 157.80 range top would turn this week's rebound into a range read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric escalates as price nears 158–160
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low.
USDJPY has climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, carving higher lows through the London and NY sessions and holding above EMA(20) on each pullback, the latest a higher low at 157.58 in Tuesday's London morning. Price has retraced roughly 80% of the Oct 22-23 slide and is pressing above the 157.80 pivot, with firm US durable goods and pre-FOMC dollar demand outweighing Katayama's jawboning. The 158.00 round number is the next test, with the Oct 21 high near 158.34 above it.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.03
Resistance: 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 157.80 pivot would mark a failed push through the level
Break of the 157.58 higher low would end the rising trendline sequence and expose the weekly open at 157.03
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number opens the Oct 21 high at 158.34
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Ueda guidance Fri ~03:00 UTC; escalation in MoF language adds two-way risk
13:03 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, pressing the week high · RSI 67 · price 157.827
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low; price retesting the 157.88 week high.
USD/JPY has climbed from Monday's 156.65 Asia-session low, rising from the 157.03 weekly open. Monday's London and NY sessions drove the leg, and Tuesday's London open printed the 157.88 week high. That high is close to a 78.6% retrace of the Thursday-Friday slide from the 158.34 Wed high. The 10:00 UTC pullback held above the rising higher-low line and the EMA(20), now near 157.64, and RSI(14) sits in the high 60s, just short of overbought. A firm dollar into FOMC and a yen shrugging off Katayama's warnings fit the recovery, with today's Durables headline beat adding little fresh impulse.
Support: 157.64, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.88 week high clears UOB's 157.80 pivot and opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.34 Wed high
Break of the higher-low line and the 157.42 Asian low would turn the read toward range, with the 157.03 weekly open the deeper marker
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today and Wednesday's FOMC decision could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF/Katayama language adds two-way spike risk to yen pricing
12:02 UTC
Rebound uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 61 · price 157.751
Higher lows since Friday's 156.08 low; capped at 157.88.
Since the 157.03 weekly open, the pair has built higher lows off Monday's Asia-session 156.65 dip. London and NY drove the leg through the fib 61.8 of last week's 158.34–156.08 decline. Tuesday's London push stalled at a 157.88 week high, near the 78.6% retracement and the 157.80 range cap flagged in the digest. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 61, as firm USD on December Fed-hike bets and pre-BoJ yen softness keep the rebound intact.
Support: 157.48, 157.03
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.88 week high exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 158.34 prior high
Loss of the rising trendline and EMA(20), followed by a break of the fib 61.8 at 157.48, would shift the read to a range
A slide back toward the 157.03 weekly open would mean most of this week's rebound had been given back
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today; the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, momentum stalling below week high · RSI 58 · price 157.681
Higher highs and higher lows from Monday's 156.65 low; London-open push rejected at 157.88.
USD/JPY has built higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65. London and NY hours drove the Monday rally as a firm dollar into Wednesday's FOMC and pre-BoJ yen softness extended the recovery from Friday's 156.08 trough. Tuesday's London-open push met rejection at the 157.88 week high, close to UOB's 157.80 range cap, and price has eased back onto EMA(20) near 157.60 with RSI(14) cooling into the high 50s.
Support: 157.60, 157.548, 157.374
Resistance: 157.881, 158.342
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the tuesday low at 157.55 breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 157.37 swing low (38.2% of the Monday rally) in focus
A close above the 157.88 week high opens the path to Wednesday's prior high at 158.34
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC decision
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 63 · price 157.744
Higher lows since Monday; rally capped near 78.6% fib.
The rebound from last Friday's 156.08 low has printed a steady sequence of higher lows since Monday's Asia-session dip to 156.65. The climb ran through Monday's London and NY sessions and extended in Tuesday's Asia session as the USD firmed on pre-FOMC short-covering. The London open push stalled at the 157.88 week high, close to the 78.6% retracement of the 158.34–156.08 decline and the 157.80 pivot flagged in the digest. Price is now holding just above ema20 near 157.60 and the rising trendline from Monday's low, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s.
Support: 157.60, 157.48, 157.03
Resistance: 157.88, 158.34
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the rising trendline and ema20 near 157.60 would break Monday's higher-low sequence and expose the 61.8% fib at 157.48
Loss of 157.48 would bring the weekly open at 157.03 back into view
A close above the 157.88 week high clears the 78.6% retracement and opens the path to the 158.34 prior high
Rejection at 157.88 is occurring alongside Katayama's 'decisive steps' warning; escalation in MoF rhetoric could cap the move
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today, then FOMC on Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
USDJPY has retraced about 74% of last week's 158.34–156.08 drop. Since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 it has built a clean higher-lows sequence above EMA(20), helped by firm pre-FOMC USD demand and a soft yen through London and NY hours. Tuesday's London push hit a rejection at the 157.88 day high, near the 78.6% level of the drop retrace and the 157.80 range top, and the latest bars now sit on the higher-lows trendline with EMA(20) at 157.59 just below, while RSI(14) eases from about 69 toward 60 without divergence.
Support: 157.59, 157.42
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 157.59 breaks the sequence; Tuesday's day low at 157.42 is the next marker
Close above the 157.88 day high and psych 158.00 extends the drop retrace toward the 158.34 swing high
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today could shift this read; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Escalation in MoF intervention rhetoric near psych 158.00 could trigger a sharp snap-back
Higher highs and higher lows off Monday's 156.65 low; testing 78.6% of the Wed–Fri decline.
USDJPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 156.65 Asian-session dip. The main leg came through Monday's London and NY sessions and extended in Tuesday's Asian session to a 157.87 day high, as pre-FOMC dollar short-covering left the yen the weakest major. Price now sits at the 78.6% retracement of the 158.34–156.08 decline, above a rising EMA(20) near 157.59 that has caught each pullback, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 158.00 round number plus MoF 'decisive steps' rhetoric overhead.
Support: 157.59, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number opens the path to the 158.34 Wed high, where intervention rhetoric becomes more acute
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 157.42 day low would mark the first lower low since Monday
A return below the 157.03 weekly open puts price back inside Friday's 156.30–157.20 range
US durables (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then Wednesday's FOMC, could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 73 · price 157.814
Higher lows since Monday's 156.65 low; price above the 61.8% fib of the Wed–Fri drop.
Since Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65, just under the 157.03 weekly open, USD/JPY has carved steady higher lows. It has recovered beyond the 61.8% fib of the Wed–Fri drop from the 158.34 swing high to 156.08, as pre-FOMC USD short-covering and a soft yen lifted the pair. Price is pressing the 157.83 week high into the London open with RSI(14) near 73, overbought, while the Asia pullback low at 157.55 held above the 61.8% fib. Katayama's escalated verbal warnings add headline risk as the 158.00 round number approaches.
Support: 157.548, 157.476, 157.034
Resistance: 157.832, 158.00, 158.342
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.55 pullback low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the rebound sequence
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 157.48 shifts the read back toward the 157.03 weekly open
Close above the 158.00 round number exposes the 158.34 swing high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today and the FOMC on Wed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines near the 158.00 round number would disrupt the higher-lows structure
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; trading above the former 157.20–157.50 zone.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily since Monday's dip to 156.65 shortly after the weekly open at 157.03. London and NY hours drove the push through the 157.20–157.50 former-support zone as the dollar firmed into Wednesday's FOMC. Price has retraced beyond 61.8% of the 158.34–156.08 drop and printed a fresh week high at 157.76 in today's Asia session, with lows still stepping up along the Monday higher-lows trendline and RSI(14) holding in the mid-60s above both EMAs.
Support: 157.55, 157.37, 157.03
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.55 Asian low breaks the Monday higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 157.37 swing low puts price back inside the 157.20–157.50 zone, with the weekly open at 157.03 next
Close above the 157.76 week high opens the path to the 158.00 round number and the 158.34 prior high from Oct 21
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoJ follows Fri 03:00 UTC
Higher lows from 156.08; tight 157.37–157.76 consolidation under session high.
USDJPY has retraced about two-thirds of the 158.34–156.08 slide. After a small gap higher at Monday's open, London and NY drove the recovery leg as USD firmed into the FOMC and the yen lagged on improving risk sentiment. Higher lows from Friday's 156.08 Asia-session low remain intact, and price is holding just above EMA(20) near 157.48, which sits on the 61.8% fib. Tuesday's Asia session high at 157.76 has capped the extension so far, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s as momentum flattens.
Support: 157.48, 157.37, 157.20
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.76 session high opens the 158.00 round number and the 158.34 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.37 swing low, then the 157.20 50% fib, would put the higher-lows read back toward 156.65
US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and consumer confidence (14:00 UTC) today are the last pre-Fed data
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a non-committal Fed on December reopens the 156.00 area
04:02 UTC
Recovering from mid-week low, momentum easing near highs · RSI 61 · price 157.635
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low; decline from 158.34 retraced past 61.8%.
Risk-off yen buying drove the slide from Wednesday's 158.34 prior high to 156.08 in Friday's Asia session. The week then opened with a gap up at 157.03, and London and NY hours carried a steady run of higher lows from 156.65 as the USD rebounded into the FOMC, with Tuesday's Asian range extending to 157.76. Price now holds above the 61.8% fib of the decline at 157.48 and above EMA(20), but RSI(14) has eased to around 61 and the Asia high is capping for now.
Support: 157.48, 157.37, 157.03
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.37 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 157.03 weekly open back in play
Close above the 157.76 Asia high and the 158.00 round number opens the 158.34 prior high
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today, ahead of Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC decision, could materially shift this read
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC and Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the yen-side risk later in the week
Higher lows since 156.08; above broken 157.36 range top.
USD/JPY has retraced more than 61.8% of the Oct 21–23 drop from 158.34 to 156.08. USD short-covering into FOMC lifted the pair through Monday's London and NY sessions from a 156.65 Asia low, clearing the 156.30–157.36 Thursday–Friday range. Price holds above EMA20 (157.46) and EMA50, rising lows have stepped up since the 157.03 weekly open, and the 157.37 NY pullback low held before Asia printed a session high of 157.76, just under the fib 78.6% near 157.86 that lines up with the Oct 21 lows.
Support: 157.46, 157.37, 157.03
Resistance: 157.76, 157.86, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.37 NY pullback and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 157.03 weekly open
H1 close above the 157.86 fib 78.6% opens the path to 158.00 and the 158.34 Oct 21 high
Repeated failure at the 157.76 session high with RSI rolling from the mid-60s would flag stalling momentum
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Outlook Report Fri 03:00 UTC remain the JPY-side event risk
Higher lows off 156.65; back above 61.8% of the week's drop.
After the Wednesday–Friday slide from 158.34 to the 156.08 low, USD/JPY built higher lows from Monday's 156.65 Tokyo-session low. The pair pushed above the weekly open and the 157.50 cap through London and NY as risk-on flows and pre-Fed USD short-covering weighed on the Yen. The NY dip held the 157.37 swing low, and today's Asia session extended to a 157.76 session high, keeping price above the 61.8% level of the drop fib. EMA(20) has risen to about 157.47 and RSI(14) sits near 67, firm but not overbought.
Support: 157.47, 157.37, 157.03
Resistance: 157.76, 157.86, 158.34
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.37 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and the rebound structure
Acceptance above the 157.86 fib 78.6% level opens the way back to the 158.34 prior high from Wednesday
Holding pullbacks at EMA(20) near 157.47 keeps the higher-low sequence intact; a slip toward the 157.03 weekly open would undo Monday's gains
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, then the FOMC on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
The BoJ decision and Outlook Report on Friday, after Tokyo CPI, could reverse the Yen weakness
Higher lows since 156.08, pressing top of week's recovery.
USD/JPY has recovered most of the Wednesday–Friday slide from 158.34 to 156.08. Monday's risk-on dollar bid lifted price off the 156.65 monday low through London and into the NY open, clearing the 157.20–157.50 cap and the 61.8% retracement, and Tuesday's Asian range held 157.42 on the retest. Price now sits at the 157.67 session high above both EMAs, though RSI(14) near 63 is not confirming the marginal new high, while higher lows at 156.31 and 156.65 frame the recovery.
Support: 157.42, 157.21, 156.65
Resistance: 157.67, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.42 asian low puts the break above the old 157.50 cap in question, with the 157.21 fib 50% next
Loss of the 156.65 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 156.08 Friday low
Sustained trade above the 157.67 session high opens the 157.86 78.6% retracement and the 158.34 swing high
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today, FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 156.08; tight range under Monday high.
USD/JPY has climbed off Monday's Asia low at 156.65 above the 157.03 week open. The London-to-NY leg carried it to the 157.64 Monday high, as USD short-covering into the FOMC left JPY the weakest major. Price now sits above the 61.8% retracement of the Wed–Fri slide, 158.34 swing high to 156.08, with EMA(20) rising underneath. Late NY and early Asia have compressed into a 157.37–157.64 band with RSI(14) holding near 62.
Support: 157.37, 157.21, 157.03
Resistance: 157.64, 157.86, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 monday high opens the 78.6% fib at 157.86 and the 158.34 swing high
Failure to hold the 157.37 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 157.21 and the 157.03 week open
A break of rising support from Friday's 156.31 low would undercut the higher-low read
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read