Higher low at 156.65 after 156.08 swing low; retesting old range floor.
Two weeks of 157.55-158.60 range trade broke lower after Tokyo yen buying, printing a 156.08 swing low. A higher low at 156.65 followed and the rebound has steadily reclaimed the fib 61.8 of the 158.60 lower high to 156.08 leg. Price is now pressing the round number at 158.00 at the old range floor, with ATR(14) contracting into Wednesday's FOMC and Friday's BoJ. EMA(20) is still converging on EMA(50) from below.
Support: 157.64, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 158.00, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.00 round number and the 158.06 fib 78.6 reopens the old range toward the 158.60 lower high
Clearance of 158.60 would expose the 158.95 window high
Failure back below the fib 61.8 at 157.64 and the higher-low trendline turns this into a retest-and-reject of the range floor
A break of the 156.65 higher low reopens the 156.08 swing low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoJ/Ueda Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EMA(20) crossing above EMA(50) would confirm the recovery on this timeframe
17:02 UTC
Rebound inside broader range, EMAs not yet realigned · RSI 63 · price 157.857
Higher lows off 156.08, testing 61.8% retracement.
The multi-week 157.50–158.95 range broke lower on Oct 22–23 as haven yen demand drove a slide from the 158.60 swing high to a 156.08 swing low. The recovery since has printed a higher low at 156.65 and reclaimed the ema50 near 157.60, and price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the 158.95–156.08 decline around 157.85, with a firmer USD into FOMC behind the bid. ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 36 pips from the selloff expansion, and EMA20 is still below EMA50, so the bearish cross from the drop has not yet unwound.
Support: 157.60, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 158.13, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 closes holding above the 61.8% fib near 157.85 and the lower highs line around 158.13 would open the 158.60 swing high and the 158.95 3-wk high
A slip back below the ema50 at 157.60 would leave the rebound as a retest of the broken range floor
A break of the 156.65 higher low exposes the 156.08 swing low and voids the higher-lows trendline
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC with Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC adds second-leg event risk
An EMA20 cross back above EMA50 would confirm the rebound on a swing basis
09:03 UTC
Range breakdown, rebound retesting old floor · RSI 56 · price 157.859
Higher low at 156.65 after 156.08 swing low; lower highs from 158.95.
The 157.55–158.60 range that held through most of October broke lower on risk-off yen buying, with the drop bottoming at the 156.08 swing low before a higher low formed at 156.65. Pre-FOMC USD short-covering has carried price back above EMA50 and the 61.8% fib near 157.63, into the former range floor. EMA20 is still below EMA50 from the breakdown, the line of lower highs from 158.95 caps near 158.15, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 38 pips from the breakdown expansion.
Support: 157.63, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 157.63 (61.8% fib / EMA50) marks the retest as failed and puts the 156.65 higher low back in focus
Close above the 158.35 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.60 swing high, where MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
Loss of 156.65 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.08 swing low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: a noncommittal December message could unwind the short-covering rebound
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range floor broken, recovery retesting it from below.
After two weeks capped in a 157.50-158.95 range, risk-off yen demand broke the floor and drove a slide from the 158.60 drop origin to the 156.08 swing low. Pre-FOMC dollar short-covering has since built higher lows at 156.31 and 156.65, lifting price back to the 61.8% retracement and the old range floor near 157.64, with the recovery hi at 157.76 so far capping. ATR(14) has compressed to about 44 pips as the rebound grinds higher. Price has reclaimed both averages, but EMA20, near the 50% retrace at 157.34, still sits below EMA50 around 157.57, so the bearish cross from the breakdown has not yet unwound.
Support: 157.34, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.76, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 157.76 recovery hi reclaims the old range and opens the 158.39 lower high, then the 158.60 drop origin
Failure to hold the 50% retrace at 157.34 turns the old range floor into confirmed resistance
Break of the higher-low trendline below 156.65 exposes the 156.08 swing low
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Ueda presser Fri ~03:00 UTC, with Tokyo CPI late Thu, are a second event risk
01:02 UTC
Range broken lower, corrective rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 157.538
157.50–158.60 range lost on a drop to 156.08; higher low at 156.65, now retesting the old range floor.
Most of the window was a 157.50–158.60 range under a lower-high sequence from 158.95, until risk-off Yen buying broke the floor and drove a drop to the 156.08 swing low. Price has since printed a higher low at 156.65 and rebounded to 157.64. That level is the 61.8% fib of the 158.60 range top to 156.08 drop and sits on the old range floor, where supply has capped the rebound so far. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 44 pips is easing from the breakdown expansion. The 157.22 pivot is the nearest shelf beneath.
Support: 157.22, 156.65, 156.08
Resistance: 157.64, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above 157.64 (61.8% fib / old range floor) would reclaim the range and expose the 158.60 range top
Slip back below the 157.22 pivot puts the higher low at 156.65 in focus; losing it reopens the 156.08 swing low
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today, then FOMC Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thursday and the BoJ decision with Outlook Report Friday are the second event risk this week