21:02 UTC
Range-bound under a lower-high sequence, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 156.825
156.08–159.03 range since late Sep; lower highs from the 163.99 July peak.
USD/JPY has been rotating inside a 156.08–159.03 range since the late-September high. That high capped a sequence of lower highs from 163.99 in July through 160.39, the sep high. This week's slide, driven by safe-haven yen demand and hot CPI, broke below 157 and tested the range low. It printed a long lower wick at 156.08, close to the 50% retracement of the sep swing fib. Price now sits below both the ema20 near 157.90 and a flattening EMA50, with RSI near 39, so momentum remains soft.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 157.90, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 156.08 range low ends the range read and exposes the 155.23 aug low, then the 152.89 sep low
- Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 157.90 keeps the range low under pressure
- A close above the 159.03 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 160.39 sep high
- FOMC on Wed Oct 28 (hold at 4.00% expected) and the BoJ on Fri Oct 30 (hold at 1.25% expected) could materially shift this read